Memory Stochastic Volatility Model Research Articles

The memory of stochastic volatility models

A valid asymptotic expansion for the covariance of functions of multivariate normal vectors is applied to approximate autocovariances of time series generated by nonlinear transformation of Gaussian latent variates, and nonlinear functions of these, with special reference to long memory stochastic volatility models, serving to identify the roles played by the underlying Gaussian processes and the nonlinear transformation. Implications for simple stochastic volatility models are examined in detail, with numerical and Monte Carlo calculations, and applications to cyclic behaviour, cross-sectional and temporal aggregation, and multivariate models are discussed.

Testing for Autocorrelation Using a Modified Box‐Pierce Q Test

This article investigates the finite‐sample performance of a modified Box‐Pierce Q statistic (Q*) for testing that financial time series are uncorrelated without assuming statistical independence. The finite‐sample rejection probabilities of the Q* test under the null and its power are examined in experiments using time series generated by an MA (1) process where the errors are generated by a GARCH (1, 1) model and by a long memory stochastic volatility model. The tests are applied to daily currency returns.

Long memory stochastic volatility : A bayesian approach

We propose a simulation-based Bayesian approach to the analysis of long memory stochastic volatility models, stationary and nonstationary. The main tool used to reduce the likelihood function to a tractable form is an approximate state-space representation of the model, A data set of stock market returns is analyzed with the proposed method. The approach taken here allows a quantitative assessment of the empirical evidence in favor of the stationarity, or nonstationarity, of the instantaneous volatility of the data.

The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility

We propose a new time series representation of persistence in conditional variance called a long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model. The LMSV model is constructed by incorporating an ARFIMA process in a standard stochastic volatility scheme. Strongly consistent estimators of the parameters of the model are obtained by maximizing the spectral approximation to the Gaussian likelihood. The finite sample properties of the spectral likelihood estimator are analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. An empirical example with a long time series of stock prices demonstrates the superiority of the LMSV model over existing (short-memory) volatility models.

On Some Limit Theorems Similar to the Arc-Sin Law

On Some Limit Theorems Similar to the Arc-Sin Law