Melt Onset Dates Research Articles

Passive microwave Arctic sea ice melt onset dates from the advanced horizontal range algorithm 1979–2022

The onset of the summer melt season is a key stage of the Arctic sea ice seasonal cycle and is an indicator of climate change. Surface melting of the bare or snow-covered sea ice is detected using passive microwave satellite observations. The data set presented here is a 44 year record of Arctic sea ice annual melt onset (MO) dates for 1979–2022 produced using an updated version of the Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm (AHRA). This data product contains annual maps of the sea ice MO date and a set of descriptive statistics summarizing the data. This paper describes a new update of the AHRA methodology, now AHRA V5, including key changes to the algorithm starting date and sea ice mask methodology to improve estimates of early-season MO dates especially near the sea ice periphery. AHRA V5 data are suitable for monitoring trends in Arctic and regional sea ice MO dates and for process studies of atmosphere-sea ice interactions during the early spring and summer months.

Improving model-satellite comparisons of sea ice melt onset with a satellite simulator

Abstract. Seasonal transitions in Arctic sea ice, such as the melt onset, have been found to be useful metrics for evaluating sea ice in climate models against observations. However, comparisons of melt onset dates between climate models and satellite observations are indirect. Satellite data products of melt onset rely on observed brightness temperatures, while climate models do not currently simulate brightness temperatures, and must therefore define melt onset with other modeled variables. Here we adapt a passive microwave sea ice satellite simulator, the Arctic Ocean Observation Operator (ARC3O), to produce simulated brightness temperatures that can be used to diagnose the timing of the earliest snowmelt in climate models, as we show here using Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) ocean-ice hindcasts. By producing simulated brightness temperatures and earliest snowmelt estimation dates using CESM2 and ARC3O, we facilitate new and previously impossible comparisons between the model and satellite observations by removing the uncertainty that arises due to definition differences. Direct comparisons between the model and satellite data allow us to identify an early bias across large areas of the Arctic at the beginning of the CESM2 ocean-ice hindcast melt season, as well as improve our understanding of the physical processes underlying seasonal changes in brightness temperatures. In particular, the ARC3O allows us to show that satellite algorithm-based melt onset dates likely occur after significant snowmelt has already taken place.

Network connectivity between the winter Arctic Oscillation and summer sea ice in CMIP6 models and observations

Abstract. The indirect effect of winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) events on the following summer Arctic sea ice extent suggests an inherent winter-to-summer mechanism for sea ice predictability. On the other hand, operational regional summer sea ice forecasts in a large number of coupled climate models show a considerable drop in predictive skill for forecasts initialised prior to the date of melt onset in spring, suggesting that some drivers of sea ice variability on longer timescales may not be well represented in these models. To this end, we introduce an unsupervised learning approach based on cluster analysis and complex networks to establish how well the latest generation of coupled climate models participating in phase 6 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are able to reflect the spatio-temporal patterns of variability in Northern Hemisphere winter sea-level pressure and Arctic summer sea ice concentration over the period 1979–2020, relative to ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis and satellite-derived sea ice observations, respectively. Two specific global metrics are introduced as ways to compare patterns of variability between models and observations/reanalysis: the adjusted Rand index – a method for comparing spatial patterns of variability – and a network distance metric – a method for comparing the degree of connectivity between two geographic regions. We find that CMIP6 models generally reflect the spatial pattern of variability in the AO relatively well, although they overestimate the magnitude of sea-level pressure variability over the north-western Pacific Ocean and underestimate the variability over northern Africa and southern Europe. They also underestimate the importance of regions such as the Beaufort, East Siberian, and Laptev seas in explaining pan-Arctic summer sea ice area variability, which we hypothesise is due to regional biases in sea ice thickness. Finally, observations show that historically, winter AO events (negatively) covary strongly with summer sea ice concentration in the eastern Pacific sector of the Arctic, although now under a thinning ice regime, both the eastern and western Pacific sectors exhibit similar behaviour. CMIP6 models however do not show this transition on average, which may hinder their ability to make skilful seasonal to inter-annual predictions of summer sea ice.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the melt onset dates over Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2017

Spatio-temporal analysis of the melt onset dates over Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2017

A lake ice phenology dataset for the Northern Hemisphere based on passive microwave remote sensing

ABSTRACT Lake ice phenology (LIP) is an essential indicator of climate change and helps with understanding of the regional characteristics of climate change impacts. Ground observation records and remote sensing retrieval products of lake ice phenology are abundant for Europe, North America, and the Tibetan Plateau, but there is a lack of data for inner Eurasia. In this work, enhanced-resolution passive microwave satellite data (PMW) were used to investigate the Northern Hemisphere Lake Ice Phenology (PMW LIP). The Freeze Onset (FO), Complete Ice Cover (CIC), Melt Onset (MO), and Complete Ice Free (CIF) dates were derived for 753 lakes, including 409 lakes for which ice phenology retrievals were available for the period 1978 to 2020 and 344 lakes for which these were available for 2002 to 2020. Verification of the PMW LIP using ground records gave correlation coefficients of 0.93 and 0.84 for CIC and CIF, respectively, and the corresponding values of the RMSE were 11.84 and 10.07 days. The lake ice phenology in this dataset was significantly correlated (P<0.001) with that obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data – the average correlation coefficient was 0.90 and the average RMSE was 7.87 days. The minimum RMSE was 4.39 days for CIF. The PMW is not affected by the weather or the amount of sunlight and thus provides more reliable data about the freezing and thawing process information than MODIS observations. The PMW LIP dataset provides the basic freeze–thaw data that is required for research into lake ice and the impact of climate change in the cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The dataset is available at http://www.doi.org/10.11922/sciencedb.j00076.00081.

Snow Phenology and Hydrologic Timing in the Yukon River Basin, AK, USA

The Yukon River basin encompasses over 832,000 km2 of boreal Arctic Alaska and northwest Canada, providing a major transportation corridor and multiple natural resources to regional communities. The river seasonal hydrology is defined by a long winter frozen season and a snowmelt-driven spring flood pulse. Capabilities for accurate monitoring and forecasting of the annual spring freshet and river ice breakup (RIB) in the Yukon and other northern rivers is limited, but critical for understanding hydrologic processes related to snow, and for assessing flood-related risks to regional communities. We developed a regional snow phenology record using satellite passive microwave remote sensing to elucidate interactions between the timing of upland snowmelt and the downstream spring flood pulse and RIB in the Yukon. The seasonal snow metrics included annual Main Melt Onset Date (MMOD), Snowoff (SO) and Snowmelt Duration (SMD) derived from multifrequency (18.7 and 36.5 GHz) daily brightness temperatures and a physically-based Gradient Ratio Polarization (GRP) retrieval algorithm. The resulting snow phenology record extends over a 29-year period (1988–2016) with 6.25 km grid resolution. The MMOD retrievals showed good agreement with similar snow metrics derived from in situ weather station measurements of snowpack water equivalence (r = 0.48, bias = −3.63 days) and surface air temperatures (r = 0.69, bias = 1 day). The MMOD and SO impact on the spring freshet was investigated by comparing areal quantiles of the remotely sensed snow metrics with measured streamflow quantiles over selected sub-basins. The SO 50% quantile showed the strongest (p &lt; 0.1) correspondence with the measured spring flood pulse at Stevens Village (r = 0.71) and Pilot (r = 0.63) river gaging stations, representing two major Yukon sub-basins. MMOD quantiles indicating 20% and 50% of a catchment under active snowmelt corresponded favorably with downstream RIB (r = 0.61) from 19 river observation stations spanning a range of Yukon sub-basins; these results also revealed a 14–27 day lag between MMOD and subsequent RIB. Together, the satellite based MMOD and SO metrics show potential value for regional monitoring and forecasting of the spring flood pulse and RIB timing in the Yukon and other boreal Arctic basins.

Arctic sea ice melt onset favored by an atmospheric pressure pattern reminiscent of the North American-Eurasian Arctic pattern

The timing of melt onset in the Arctic plays a key role in the evolution of sea ice throughout Spring, Summer and Autumn. A major catalyst of early melt onset is increased downwelling longwave radiation, associated with increased levels of moisture in the atmosphere. Determining the atmospheric moisture pathways that are tied to increased downwelling longwave radiation and melt onset is therefore of keen interest. We employed Self Organizing Maps (SOM) on the daily sea level pressure for the period 1979–2018 over the Arctic during the melt season (April–July) and identified distinct circulation patterns. Melt onset dates were mapped on to these SOM patterns. The dominant moisture transport to much of the Arctic is enabled by a broad low pressure region stretching over Siberia and a high pressure over northern North America and Greenland. This configuration, which is reminiscent of the North American-Eurasian Arctic dipole pattern, funnels moisture from lower latitudes and through the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Other leading patterns are variations of this which transport moisture from North America and the Atlantic to the Central Arctic and Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Our analysis further indicates that most of the early and late melt onset timings in the Arctic are strongly related to the strong and weak emergence of these preferred circulation patterns, respectively.

Seasonal transition dates can reveal biases in Arctic sea ice simulations

Abstract. Arctic sea ice experiences a dramatic annual cycle, and seasonal ice loss and growth can be characterized by various metrics: melt onset, breakup, opening, freeze onset, freeze-up, and closing. By evaluating a range of seasonal sea ice metrics, CMIP6 sea ice simulations can be evaluated in more detail than by using traditional metrics alone, such as sea ice area. We show that models capture the observed asymmetry in seasonal sea ice transitions, with spring ice loss taking about 1–2 months longer than fall ice growth. The largest impacts of internal variability are seen in the inflow regions for melt and freeze onset dates, but all metrics show pan-Arctic model spreads exceeding the internal variability range, indicating the contribution of model differences. Through climate model evaluation in the context of both observations and internal variability, we show that biases in seasonal transition dates can compensate for other unrealistic aspects of simulated sea ice. In some models, this leads to September sea ice areas in agreement with observations for the wrong reasons.

Seasonal evolution of L-band SAR backscatter over landfast Arctic sea ice

We construct and present the first baseline, time series evolution of L-band SAR microwave backscatter (σ0HH) for landfast Arctic first-year (FYI) and multi-year (MYI) sea ice from ALOS PALSAR. We compare the winter to freeze-up seasonal L-band σ0HH signatures with C-band RADARSAT-2 SAR imagery and Ku-band QuikSCAT scatterometer data. We also explored the utility of L-band σ0HH to detect FYI and MYI melt onset dates. For both ice types, L-band exhibited a similar σ0HH evolution to C- and Ku-bands. A rise in L-band σ0HH was observed from winter to melt onset, however, with a lower magnitude attributed to the larger penetration of L-band microwaves through the snow-covered sea ice medium. Over FYI, L-band σ0HH exhibited the most robust response and greater diversity in melt onset signature, compared to C- and Ku-bands. Over MYI, L-band σ0HH declined during the winter to melt onset transition contrasting the C- and Ku-band evolution of σ0HH during melt onset. Although, a distinct L-band σ0HH response was not found during pond onset, a very strong σ0HH response was found during sea ice break-up, which could operationally be utilized to identify sea ice break-up timing. During freeze-up, L-band σ0HH showed greater diversity compared to C- and Ku-bands. Our study also found that, L-band detected melt onset dates were up to 6 days later than C- and Ku-band detected dates, for both ice types. The melt response was the strongest at L-band for FYI, where C-band detected a robust melt onset date for MYI. Therefore, for operational sea ice monitoring, L-band suits better for FYI, whereas C-band is still a better choice for MYI. In the warming Arctic, where FYI has become the dominant ice type, L-band demonstrates promise to be the optimal choice for sea ice operational monitoring with high spatiotemporal data acquisition from existing, upcoming and proposed L-band SAR missions.

Snowmelt Detection with Calibrated, Enhanced‐Resolution Brightness Temperatures (CETB) in Colorado Watersheds

AbstractUnderstanding the timing of snowmelt is critical for water resources management in snow‐dominated watersheds. Passive microwave remote sensing can be used to estimate snowmelt events through brightness temperature satellite observations. Previous studies were limited to lower resolution (~25 km or coarser) datasets, making it difficult to quantify snowpack variability in heterogeneous, high‐relief areas. This study investigates the use of recently available Calibrated, Enhanced‐Resolution Passive Microwave Daily EASE‐Grid 2.0 Brightness Temperature ESDR (CETB) to estimate snowmelt timing at much higher spatial resolution (~3‐6 km) than has been previously available. This study investigates the effectiveness of the CETB product for snowmelt detection in several locations in Colorado (North Park, Rabbit Ears, Fraser) that were the sites of previous ground/airborne surveys during the NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX 2002‐2003), along with data for the Senator Beck Basin from the Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies (CSAS). We compare melt variability with nearby air temperature and stream discharge to show that the new CETB product allows detection of hydrologic processes in mountainous watersheds. We show that the higher resolution CETB product can detect snowmelt in heterogeneous terrain more accurately than the coarser resolution product in terms of the number of winter melt events and seasonal melt onset date. This work lays the foundation for the utilization of higher resolution reprocessed CETB data for snowpack evolution more broadly in a range of environments.

Intercomparison of Snow Melt Onset Date Estimates From Optical and Microwave Satellite Instruments Over the Northern Hemisphere for the Period 1982–2015

AbstractRobust melt season timing and length estimates are important for hydrological and climatological applications; due to the large area and sparse in situ measurements, snow melt monitoring at the continental scale is only possible from satellites. We intercompared melt onset date (MOD) estimates obtained from optical and microwave satellite sensors over the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2015 and subsequently analyzed the causes of the similarities and dissimilarities found. The optical satellite data are based on the mean surface albedo from the Satellite Application Facility for Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) CLouds, Albedo and RAdiation second release Surface ALbedo (CLARA‐A2 SAL) data set. The microwave satellite data are based on temporal variations in the differences of the brightness temperature from satellite passive microwave radiometers. The analysis shows that the microwave‐based method detects melt onset on average 10 days later than the albedo‐based method, which results from the different melt detection methods; the albedo‐based method observes the point when the spring snow metamorphism begins to have a detectable effect on snow albedo, whereas the microwave‐based method detects the appearance of meltwater in snowpack. The difference in MOD decreases in forests, because canopy protects snow from sunlight delaying snow metamorphism. Additionally, we analyzed the MOD estimates for trends across the Northern Hemisphere and separately for Eurasia and North America. A statistically significant negative trend toward earlier melt onset exists in all cases, which is consistent with previous studies.

Induced surface fluxes: a new framework for attributing Arctic sea ice volume balance biases to specific model errors

Abstract. A new framework is presented for analysing the proximate causes of model Arctic sea ice biases, demonstrated with the CMIP5 model HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 – Earth System). In this framework the Arctic sea ice volume is treated as a consequence of the integrated surface energy balance, via the volume balance. A simple model allows the local dependence of the surface flux on specific model variables to be described as a function of time and space. When these are combined with reference datasets, it is possible to estimate the surface flux bias induced by the model bias in each variable. The method allows the role of the surface albedo and ice thickness–growth feedbacks in sea ice volume balance biases to be quantified along with the roles of model bias in variables not directly related to the sea ice volume. It shows biases in the HadGEM2-ES sea ice volume simulation to be due to a bias in spring surface melt onset date, partly countered by a bias in winter downwelling longwave radiation. The framework is applicable in principle to any model and has the potential to greatly improve understanding of the reasons for ensemble spread in the modelled sea ice state. A secondary finding is that observational uncertainty is the largest cause of uncertainty in the induced surface flux bias calculation.

Spatiotemporal variability and decadal trends of snowmelt processes on Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

Abstract. The timing and intensity of snowmelt processes on sea ice are key drivers determining the seasonal sea-ice energy and mass budgets. In the Arctic, satellite passive microwave and radar observations have revealed a trend towards an earlier snowmelt onset during the last decades, which is an important aspect of Arctic amplification and sea-ice decline. Around Antarctica, snowmelt on perennial ice is weak and very different than in the Arctic, with most snow surviving the summer. Here we compile time series of snowmelt onset dates on seasonal and perennial Antarctic sea ice from 1992 to 2014/15 using active microwave observations from the European Space Agency's (ESA) European Remote Sensing (ERS) 1 and 2 missions (ERS-1 and ERS-2), Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT), and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) radar scatterometers. We define two snowmelt transition stages: a weak backscatter rise, indicating the initial warming and destructive metamorphism of the snowpack (pre-melt), followed by a rapid backscatter rise, indicating the onset of thaw–freeze cycles (snowmelt). Results show large interannual variability, with an average pre-melt onset date of 29 November and melt onset of 10 December, respectively, on perennial ice, without any significant trends over the study period, consistent with the small trends of Antarctic sea-ice extent. There was a latitudinal gradient from early snowmelt onsets in mid-November in the northern Weddell Sea to late (end of December) or even absent snowmelt conditions in the southern Weddell Sea. We show that QSCAT Ku-band-derived (13.4 GHz signal frequency) pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates are earlier by 20 and 18 d, respectively, than ERS and ASCAT C-band-derived (5.6 GHz) dates. This offset has been considered when constructing the time series. Snowmelt onset dates from passive microwave observations (37 GHz) are later by 14 and 6 d than those from the scatterometers, respectively. Based on these characteristic differences between melt onset dates observed by different microwave wavelengths, we developed a conceptual model which illustrates how the seasonal evolution of snow temperature profiles may affect different microwave bands with different penetration depths. These suggest that future multi-frequency active and passive microwave satellite missions could be used to resolve melt processes throughout the vertical snow column of thick snow on perennial Antarctic sea ice.

Passive Microwave Melt Onset Retrieval Based on a Variable Threshold: Assessment in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) presents unique challenges to the determination of melt onset (MO) using remote sensing data. High spatial resolution data is required to discern melt onset among the islands and narrow waterways of the region. Current passive microwave retrievals use daily averaged 19 GHz and 37 GHz data from the multi-channel microwave radiometer (SMMR) and/or the special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I). The development of a new passive microwave melt onset method capable of using higher resolution data is desirable. The new passive microwave melt onset method described here, named the Dynamic Threshold Variability Method (DTVM), uses higher resolution data from the 37 GHz vertically-polarized channel from the advanced microwave scanning radiometers (AMSR-E and AMSR-2). The DTVM MO detection methodology differs from previously presented passive microwave Arctic MO methods in that it does not use a fixed threshold of a brightness temperature parameter. Instead, the DTVM determines MO dates based on the distribution of dates corresponding to the exceedance of a range of brightness temperature variability thresholds. The method also uses swath data instead of daily averaged brightness temperatures, which is found to lead to improved melt detection. Two current passive microwave MO methods are compared and evaluated for applicability in the CAA alongside the DTVM. The DTVM provides MO dates at a higher spatial resolution than earlier methods in addition to higher correlation with MO dates from surface air temperature (SAT) reanalyses. It is found that, for some years, MO dates in the CAA exhibit a latitudinal dependence, while in other years the MO dates in the CAA are relatively uniform across the domain.

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

The seasonal evolution of Arctic sea ice can be described by the timing of key dates of sea ice concentration (SIC) change during its annual retreat and advance cycle. Here, we use SICs from a satellite passive microwave climate data record to identify the sea ice dates of opening (DOO), retreat (DOR), advance (DOA), and closing (DOC) and the periods of time between these events. Regional variability in these key dates, periods, and sea ice melt onset and freeze-up dates for 12 Arctic regions during the melt seasons of 1979–2016 is investigated. We find statistically significant positive trends in the length of the melt season (outer ice-free period) for most of the eastern Arctic, the Bering Sea, and Hudson and Baffin Bays with trends as large as 11.9 d decade−1 observed in the Kara Sea. Trends in the DOR and DOA contribute to statistically significant increases in the length of the open water period for all regions within the Arctic Ocean ranging from 3.9 to 13.8 d decade−1. The length of the ice retreat period (DOR−DOO) ranges from 17.1 d in the Sea of Okhotsk to 41 d in the Greenland Sea. The length of the ice advance period (DOC−DOA) is generally much shorter and ranges from 17.9 to 25.3 d in the Sea of Okhotsk and Greenland Sea, respectively. Additionally, we derive the extent of the seasonal ice zone (SIZ) and find statistically significant negative trends (SIZ is shrinking) in the Sea of Okhotsk, Baffin Bay, Greenland Sea, and Barents Sea regions, which are geographically open to the oceans and influenced by reduced winter sea ice extent. Within regions of the Arctic Ocean, statistically significant positive trends indicate that the extent of the SIZ is expanding as Arctic summer sea ice declines.

Temporal Means and Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Melt and Freeze Season Climate Indicators Using a Satellite Climate Data Record

Information on the timing of Arctic snow and ice melt onset, sea ice opening, retreat, advance, and closing, can be beneficial to a variety of stakeholders. Sea ice modelers can use information on the evolution of the ice cover through the rest of the summer to improve their seasonal sea ice forecasts. The length of the open water season (as derived from retreat/advance dates) is important for human activities and for wildlife. Long-term averages and variability of these dates as climate indicators are beneficial to business strategic planning and climate monitoring. In this study, basic characteristics of temporal means and variability of Arctic sea ice climate indicators derived from a satellite-based climate data record from March 1979 to February 2017 melt and freeze seasons are described. Our results show that, over the Arctic region, anomalies of snow and ice melt onset, ice opening and retreat dates are getting earlier in the year at a rate of more than 5 days per decade, while that of ice advance and closing dates are getting later at a rate of more than 5 days per decade. These significant trends resulted in significant upward trends for anomalies of inner and outer ice-free periods at a rate of nearly 12 days per decade. Small but significant downward trends of seasonal ice loss and gain period anomalies were also observed at a rate of −1.48 and −0.53 days per decade, respectively. Our analyses also demonstrated that the means of these indicators and their trends are sensitive to valid data masks and regional averaging methods.

Snowmelt onset hinders bromine monoxide heterogeneous recycling in the Arctic

AbstractReactive bromine radicals (bromine atoms, Br, and bromine monoxide, BrO) deplete ozone and alter tropospheric oxidation chemistry during the Arctic springtime (February–June). As spring transitions to summer (May–June) and snow begins to melt, reactive bromine events cease and BrO becomes low in summer. In this study, we explore the relationship between the end of the reactive bromine season and snowmelt timing. BrO was measured by Multi‐AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectrometer at Utqiaġvik (Barrow), AK, from 2012 to 2016 and on drifting buoys deployed in Arctic sea ice from 2011 to 2016, a total of 13 site and year combinations. The BrO seasonal end date (SED) was objectively determined and was compared to surface‐air‐temperature‐derived melt onset date (MOD). The SED was highly correlated with the MOD (N = 13, R2 = 0.983, RMS = 1.9 days), and BrO is only observed at subfreezing temperatures. In subsets of these sites and years where ancillary data were available, we observed that snowpack depth reduced and rain precipitation occurred within a few days of the SED. These data are consistent with snowpack melting hindering BrO recycling, which is necessary to maintain enhanced BrO concentrations. With a projected warmer Arctic, a shift to earlier snowmelt seasons could alter the timing and role of halogen chemical reactions in the Arctic with impacts on ozone depletion and mercury deposition.

Snowmelt Pattern Over High-Mountain Asia Detected From Active and Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

The snow in high-mountain Asia (HMA) is of great importance, as it is very sensitive to the climate change. Air temperature and precipitation shifts/increases will be reflected in the timing of snowmelt onset. In this letter, a new algorithm is proposed to determine the snowmelt onset date from active and passive microwave remote sensing data, and the spatial and temporal pattern of snowmelt onset in HMA is studied using active and passive microwave remote sensing for the first time. Over 35 years of passive microwave data and ten years of active microwave data are used to derive the melt onset date in HMA. The active microwave data has 4.5-km resolution so that more detailed spatial pattern of snowmelt onset date can be derived compared to the 25-km resolution passive microwave data. Under climate change background, time series analyses of the snowmelt onset date in HMA are conducted to study the snowmelt onset time changes in recent 35 years. This letter provides an objective evidence of climate change impact on the cryospheric system. Time series analysis shows that the snowmelt onset date is becoming earlier in HMA region during 1988–2015, except the Karakorum Mountains and part of the western Kunlun Mountains. Mean air temperature is compared with the time series snowmelt onset date and the results show that there is strong correlation between mean air temperature and average snowmelt onset date. A 4.5 days/degree rate of snowmelt onset date advancing is found.

Summer Enhancement of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomalies in the September-Ice Zone

Because of its persistence on seasonal time scales, Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) is a potential source of predictability for summer sea ice extent (SIE). New satellite observations of SIT represent an opportunity to harness this potential predictability via improved thickness initialization in seasonal forecast systems. In this work, the evolution of Arctic sea ice volume anomalies is studied using a 700-yr control integration and a suite of initialized ensemble forecasts from a fully coupled global climate model. This analysis is focused on the September sea ice zone, as this is the region where thickness anomalies have the potential to impact the SIE minimum. The primary finding of this paper is that, in addition to a general decay with time, sea ice volume anomalies display a summer enhancement, in which anomalies tend to grow between the months of May and July. This summer enhancement is relatively symmetric for positive and negative volume anomalies and peaks in July regardless of the initial month. Analysis of the surface energy budget reveals that the summer volume anomaly enhancement is driven by a positive feedback between the SIT state and the surface albedo. The SIT state affects surface albedo through changes in the sea ice concentration field, melt-onset date, snow coverage, and ice thickness distribution, yielding an anomaly in the total absorbed shortwave radiation between May and August, which enhances the existing SIT anomaly. This phenomenon highlights the crucial importance of accurate SIT initialization and representation of ice–albedo feedback processes in seasonal forecast systems.

Comparison of Passive Microwave-Derived Early Melt Onset Records on Arctic Sea Ice

Two long records of melt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice from passive microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) obtained by a series of satellite-borne instruments are compared. The Passive Microwave (PMW) method and Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm (AHRA) detect the increase in emissivity that occurs when liquid water develops around snow grains at the onset of early melting on sea ice. The timing of MO on Arctic sea ice influences the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the ice–ocean system throughout the melt season by reducing surface albedos in the early spring. This work presents a thorough comparison of these two methods for the time series of MO dates from 1979 through 2012. The methods are first compared using the published data as a baseline comparison of the publically available data products. A second comparison is performed on adjusted MO dates we produced to remove known differences in inter-sensor calibration of Tbs and masking techniques used to develop the original MO date products. These adjustments result in a more consistent set of input Tbs for the algorithms. Tests of significance indicate that the trends in the time series of annual mean MO dates for the PMW and AHRA are statistically different for the majority of the Arctic Ocean including the Laptev, E. Siberian, Chukchi, Beaufort, and central Arctic regions with mean differences as large as 38.3 days in the Barents Sea. Trend agreement improves for our more consistent MO dates for nearly all regions. Mean differences remain large, primarily due to differing sensitivity of in-algorithm thresholds and larger uncertainties in thin-ice regions.