Meiyu Rainband Research Articles

Another source of error in simulating or predicting Meiyu: a case study

The Meiyu phenomenon in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) is a significant characteristic of summer precipitation in China. The successful prediction of Meiyu front intensity and location is highly important for disaster prevention and reduction. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF4.0) model was used to simulate the 2020 extreme Meiyu to find the possible sources of bias in simulating or predicting Meiyu. The results revealed that the simulated Meiyu rain band deviates from the YRB and lingers abnormally in South China from June 15 to July 6. This deviation is termed the “southern lingering bias (SLB)” in this paper. The SLB is closely associated with the excessive sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau and the large positive latent heat flux bias over the South China Sea. Selecting an appropriate land surface model, surface layer scheme, or planetary boundary layer scheme can reduce the bias of simulated surface heat fluxes and improve Meiyu simulations. These findings can improve our understanding of the source of model bias and enhance the accuracy of Meiyu simulation or prediction via dynamical models.

Impacts of El Niño diversity on East Asian summertime precipitation extremes

This study examines the impacts of Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño on summertime extreme precipitation over East Asia during the El Niño decay phase. The findings reveal distinct patterns of extreme precipitation for the two El Niño types. During EP El Niño, more intense extreme precipitation occurs over south of the Yangtze River (SYR), while suppressed extremes are observed over Mei-Yu rainband in China, Baiu in Japan, and Changma in South Korea (MBC). Conversely, CP El Niño leads to weaker (stronger) extreme precipitation over SYR (MBC). This study also differentiates between tropical cyclone (TC) and non-TC related precipitation, showing that TCs have minimal influence on the overall extreme precipitation compared to non-TC related events. Further investigation reveals that EP and CP El Niño distinctly influence atmospheric circulation patterns, thereby causing different distributions of non-TC extreme precipitation. Specifically, during EP El Niño, sea surface temperature (SST) warming signals in the tropical Indian Ocean induce the southward displacement of the South Asia High (SAH), westerly jet (WJ), and Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). This amplifies moisture flux convergence, elevating the likelihood of intense extreme precipitation over SYR. Conversely, MBC experiences moisture flux divergence, resulting in fewer precipitation extremes. During CP El Niño, SST warming signals in the Maritime Continent prompt the northward shift of SAH, WJ, and WPSH by modulating local Hadley circulations. These anomalies lead to strengthened moisture convergence (divergence) over MBC (SYR), consequently resulting in a higher (lower) likelihood of intense extreme precipitation over MBC (SYR).

Characteristics of intracloud lightning to cloud-to-ground lightning ratio in thunderstorms over Eastern and Southern China

This study investigates the characteristics of intracloud lightning to cloud-to-ground lightning (IC:CG) ratios in eastern and southern China, as well as their relationships to convective intensity. IC:CG is not only examined on the 0.5o grid scale but also uniquely on the thunderstorm scale (convective features), using coincident satellite-based and ground-based lightning observations from 2009 to 2014. The grid-scale IC:CG climatology in eastern and southern China shows a mean value of 3.97, consistent to the worldwide reported values. The IC:CG distribution exhibits two maxima (8–10) over North China Plain (NCP) and the southwest hilly Guangxi Province (GXP), and a low-value band (2–4) located along the Mei-Yu rainband in central China including Sichuan Basin (SCB) and the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The IC:CG ratios over different regions all maximize in the spring and decrease toward the middle summer. Storm-scale analyses further indicate that the SCB/YRB thunderstorms are weaker but own relatively higher CG frequency, leading to a low IC:CG. This is likely because the SCB/YRB storms are more organized with broader stratiform precipitation. Moreover, IC:CG increases with stronger convective intensity following a power-law relation, and the power is the strongest over GXP and weakest over SCB. In short, our results reveal unique IC:CG characteristics and their relationships with convective intensity for monsoonal thunderstorms, therefore providing insights on thunderstorms' electrification structures under monsoon environments.

Influences of Lateral Boundary Forcings on the 2020 Extreme Meiyu in the Yangtze‐Huaihe River Valley

AbstractMeiyu occurs in Yangtze‐Huaihe River valley (YHRV) every summer. Its intensity, distribution, and intraseasonal variation are greatly influenced by atmospheric forcings from different directions, such as the monsoon southwesterlies from the south, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the east, the atmospheric longwave activities in the north, the southwest vortex from the west, and so on. In this study, to explore the contributions of the atmospheric forcings from different directions to 2020 extreme Meiyu, Regional Climate Model version 4.6 (RegCM4.6) is employed. A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted with realistic or climatological averaged lateral boundary conditions. The results show that the monsoon westerlies from the south transport moisture and heat to YHRV, converge with the cold air brought by the frequent atmospheric longwave activities in the north, and result in this extreme Meiyu. The frequent cold air from the north can lift warm air, provide unstable conditions, and make the distribution of precipitation similar to the teleconnection pattern in East Asia. The stable WPSH in the east anchors the 2020 Meiyu rainband to the YHTV for a long time. In addition, the contributions of the atmospheric forcings from different directions to evolution of 2020 Meiyu change with time. Before 10 June, the WPSH in the east mainly contributes to the Meiyu evolution. From 11 June to 3 July, the combined effects of atmospheric forcings from the south and north are dominant. From 3 July to 10 July, the cold air from the north plays a major role.

The southward movement preference of large-scale persistent extreme precipitation events over the Yangtze River Valley during Mei-yu period

Among all rainfall events, heavy rainfall that affects large areas and persists for days can cause serious flooding, severe casualties, and substantial economic losses. In this study, we identify the extreme precipitation events that affect a large area and have persistence of more than three days (LPEPEs) in China during 1961–2013. The LPEPEs incline to occur in summer and over southern China, coinciding well with the rainy season in China. The movement of LPEPEs is dominated by the tendency to extend southward, especially for the LPEPEs during the Mei-yu period (LPEPEs-M). The dynamical composite analyses on the southward-moving LPEPEs-M show that the southward extension is generated by the combined effect of the large-scale circulation configuration and the diabatic heating caused by large-scale condensation. The latent heating results in a cyclonic anomaly from the middle to the lower levels. Therefore, westerly and easterly anomalies are produced to the south and north of the heating center, respectively. The two anomalies manipulate the vertical distribution of zonal winds which is dominated by the large-scale circulation to both sides of the rainband. This kind of anomaly configuration, together with the quasi east–west zonal distribution of diabatic heating, creates a pattern with positive and negative PV tendency to the south and north of the heating center, leading to LPEPE system development to the south of the precipitation center. Therefore, the LPEPE rainband has a preference to move southward over the Yangtze River Valley during the Mei-yu period. We also test the dynamical mechanism with a numerical sensitivity experiment using the WRF model. In the experiment without latent heating feedback, the Mei-yu rainband moves northward and extends to central and North China. While in the experiment with the latent heating feedback, the rainband intensifies and extends southward. The southward extension preferences of the LPEPE can provide an internal dynamical of the stagnation of East Asian summer evolution.

MJO Phase Swings Modulate the Recurring Latitudinal Shifts of the 2020 Extreme Summer‐Monsoon Rainfall Around Yangtse

AbstractConsidering the unprecedented extremity of the Meiyu episodes in early summer of 2020, here the authors perform a comprehensive study of the intraseasonal evolution characteristics of the observed rainfall round Yangtse as well as the potential modulating effect of Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). Results suggest that the Meiyu rainfall manifests as recurring latitudinal shifts around Yangtse during June–July of 2020, corresponding well to the continued swings of MJO circulation and convection between Phase 1 and Phase 2. The MJO affects the meridional migration of the 2020 Meiyu rainfall mainly through regulating the westward extended ridge line and southwesterly of the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP). Specifically, the northeastward propagation of boreal summer MJO from Phase 1 to 2 shifts the ridge line of the anomalous WNP anticyclone northeastward. Consequently, the associated southwesterly anomaly over the southeastern China penetrates to the north of Yangtse and enhances the lower‐tropospheric moisture flux convergence, supporting heavy precipitation there. However, when the MJO swings back to Phase 1, the anomalous southwesterly and moisture flux convergence retreat southward, so does the Meiyu rain band. The present results advanced our understanding of the interactions between the latitudinal shifts of extreme Meiyu rainfall episodes and MJO Phase swings.

Multiscale Processes of Heavy Rainfall over East Asia in Summer 2020: Diurnal Cycle in Response to Synoptic Disturbances

Abstract Multiscale processes from synoptic disturbances to diurnal cycles during the record-breaking heavy rainfall in summer 2020 were examined in this study. The heavy rainfall consisted of eight episodes, each lasting about 5 days, and were associated with two types of synoptic disturbances. The Type-1 episodes featured a northwestward extending western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), while the Type-2 episodes had approaching midlatitude troughs with southward retreat in the WPSH. Each heavy rainfall episode had 2–3 occurrences of nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs), in close association with intense rainfall in the early morning. The NLLJs formed partly due to the geostrophic wind by increased pressure gradients under both types of synoptic disturbances. The NLLJs were also driven by the ageostrophic wind that veered to maximum southerlies at late night due to the boundary-layer inertial oscillation. The diurnal amplitudes of low-level southerlies increased remarkably after the onset of Type-1 episodes, in which the extending WPSH provided strong daytime heating from solar radiation. By contrast, the wind diurnal amplitudes were less changed after the onset of Type-2 episodes. The NLLJs strengthened the mesoscale mean ascent, net moisture flux convergence, and convective instability in elevated warm moist air, which led to the upscale growth of MCSs at the northern terminus of the LLJ after midnight. The MCSs-induced Meiyu rainband was re-established in Central China during the Type-1 episodes with the increased diurnal variations. The findings highlight that the regional diurnal cycles of low-level winds in response to synoptic disturbances can strongly regulate mesoscale convective activities in a downscaling manner, and thus produce heavy rainfall.

Record‐Breaking Meiyu Rainfall Around the Yangtze River in 2020 Regulated by the Subseasonal Phase Transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractIn 2020, the Yangtze River (YR) suffered a long‐persisting Meiyu season. The accumulated rainfall broke its record since 1961 and caused severe flooding and death in China. Our results show the sequential warm and cold Meiyu front regulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was responsible for this unexpected extreme Meiyu event. From 11 to 25 June with the positive NAO, the interaction between the South Asian High (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high maintained a warm front to strengthen the rainband north of the YR. Afterward, the coupling between SAH and midlatitude Mongolian Cyclone induced a cold front, which retreated the rainband to the south of YR from 30 June to 13 July with the negative NAO. Although the ECMWF S2S model successfully predicted the warm‐front‐related Meiyu rainband, it failed to forecast the Meiyu rainband in the cold‐front period, suggesting a great challenge of S2S forecasting on Meiyu rainfall.

Towards influence of Arabian Sea SST anomalies on the withdrawal date of Meiyu over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin

Prediction of Meiyu withdrawal date (MWD) over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin (YHRB) around mid-July has aroused extensive concern recently because of the profound socioeconomic and academic importance. However, relatively few researches have been carried out to identify the potential predictability source that can physically contribute to the Meiyu retreat over the YHRB, which exhibits profound year-to-year variations. This study identifies that the later-than-normal Meiyu withdrawal is preceded by the significant tropical June Arabian Sea (AS) surface sea surface (SST) warming on the interannual timescale. Analyses of possible mechanisms suggest that a striking quasi-barotropic “north-low–south-high” meridional seesaw pattern (i.e. PJ-like pattern) over the Northeast Asian–western North Pacific sector in July favors the transport and convergence of warm-moist water vapor and cold-dry air mass over the YHRB, inducing abundant in situ precipitation and thereby maintaining the Meiyu rainband. Under such a background, the Meiyu termination over the YHRB is delayed. Moreover, dynamical diagnoses and numerical model simulations indicate that the warmer-than-normal AS, which persists from June to the following July, can induce a notable localized low-level cyclonic anomaly via a Rossby-wave-like Matsuno–Gill-type atmospheric response. This cyclonic anomaly can further stimulate a large-scale atmosphere bridge stretching across South Asia and propagating poleward into Northeast Asia, which modulates the aforementioned downstream MWD-related atmospheric conditions continuously. Therefore, AS SST warming can remotely regulate and maintain the July Meiyu rainband through inducing a major direct forcing for the later Meiyu withdrawal over the YHRB, namely the East Asian coastal “north-low-south-high” meridional teleconnection. These results indicate and demonstrate the possible source of predictability for Meiyu withdrawal. This work may help improve forecasting of the withdrawal timing of Meiyu over the YHRB through more accurate predictions of SST over the AS region.

Impact of Dust Shortwave Absorbability on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractDust shortwave absorbability suffers from significant uncertainties. We investigated the radiative effects of dust aerosols from the circum‐Tibet region using four shortwave absorbability schemes and examined their impacts on the East Asian summer monsoon by using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We adopted superspheroidal models to compute dust aerosol optical properties and found that more absorptive particles have larger asymmetry factor and lower single‐scattering albedo. Meiyu precipitation, as a part of the East Asian summer monsoon, is weakened by dust aerosols, particularly for the convective precipitation. The mechanism is that dust aerosols transported mainly from the Gobi desert radiatively heat the lower atmosphere to the north of the Meiyu rainband and decrease the meridional temperature gradient, leading to the weakening of the midtropospheric westerly jet over the Meiyu rainband, which is important for convection. More absorptive dust aerosols with a stronger radiative heating effect inhibit more convective Meiyu precipitation.

Evaluation of a Customized Variable‐Resolution Global Model and its Application for High‐Resolution Weather Forecasts in East Asia

AbstractThe performance of a variable‐resolution global model, based on the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A) framework and with customized 160‐to‐1 km resolution grid mesh, was tested by simulating idealized flow fields as well as forecasting the evolution of actual weather systems. The mesh contains five levels of refinement, with 20, 15, 9, 3, and 1 km resolution covering central to East Asia, central to southern China, southeastern China, and Greater Bay Area/Hong Kong, respectively. Using a shallow‐water solver and MPAS‐A's solver, the mesh was evaluated against standard circularly refined meshes in simulating idealized steady‐state flows. Conservation properties and error growths in the 160‐to‐1 km and counterpart simulations were fairly comparable. By perturbing the steady flow, realistic baroclinic wave evolutions could be captured. Initialized by Global Forecast System (GFS), parallel experiments were further conducted with new‐Tiedtke (nTDK), Kain‐Fritsch (KF), and Tiedtke (TDK) cumulus schemes and a convection‐permitting suite (CP). Experiments showed that the model can give reasonable 5‐day outlooks and evolution of synoptic‐scale weather systems typically found in East Asia in various seasons. In particular, it can reproduce the mesoscale precipitation related to the Meiyu rainband (cold fronts) in summer (winter). When compared with station data, promising skills in predicting local temperature, humidity, and wind changes were found. It also performed slightly better using nTDK, KF, and TDK schemes, than adopting CP. Overall, by capturing multiscale features concurrently, these experiments gave reasonable global, regional, and local weather predictions, thereby demonstrating the practicality of using customized variable‐resolution meshes for high‐resolution short‐range weather forecasts under MPAS‐A framework.

Precipitation over East Asia simulated by ECHAM6.3 with different schemes of cumulus convective parameterization

This study investigates the applicability of five cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) for precipitation simulation in East Asia with the atmospheric model ECHAM6.3. Besides the built-in Tiedtke–Nordeng–Tiedtke (TNT) scheme, four updated schemes are implemented in ECHAM6.3: two modified Tiedtke schemes, the simplified Arakawa–Schubert scheme (SAS), and the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme (BMJ). An overall assessment of seasonal climatology shows that the SAS and the two modified Tiedtke schemes have clear advantages over the default TNT scheme. The spatial pattern of precipitation climatology and seasonal variations are successfully reproduced by all CPSs. Biases of rainfall distribution are strongly modulated by the simulation of atmospheric circulation systems over East Asia. The main characteristics of summer monsoonal precipitation, including the increase in rainfall and rain belt migration under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), are successfully captured. However, there are large model diversities in the location and intensity of rain centers around Southeast China and the Korean Peninsula. In addition, all simulations of Meiyu rain band migration are farther north than observed. The SAS scheme is the best of the five CPSs in simulating the timing and intensity of seasonal rainfall variations. The results also suggest that the environmental feedback of a CPS is a key factor that determines the applicability of the CPS in a particular climate model.

Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance. Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band. We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) on monthly time scales, and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall. However, there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall directly. Although interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations, which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale, the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high. The ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

Microphysical Characteristics of Three Convective Events with Intense Rainfall Observed by Polarimetric Radar and Disdrometer in Eastern China

Polarimetric radar and disdrometer observations obtained during the 2014 Observation, Prediction, and Analysis of Severe Convection of China (OPACC) field campaign are used in this study to investigate the microphysical characteristics of three primary types of organized intense rainfall events (meiyu rainband, typhoon outer rainband, and squall line) in eastern China. Drop size distributions (DSDs) of these three events on the ground are derived from measurements of a surface disdrometer, while the corresponding three-dimensional microphysical structures are obtained from the Nanjing University C-band polarimetric radar (NJU-CPOL). Although the environmental moisture and instability conditions are different, all three events possess relatively high freezing level favorable for warm-rain processes where the high medium to small raindrop concentration at low levels is consistent with the high surface rainfall rates. Convection is tallest in the squall line where abundant ice-phase processes generate large amounts of rimed particles (graupel and hail) above the freezing level and the largest surface raindrops are present among these three events. The storm tops of both the typhoon and meiyu rainbands are lower than that in the squall line, composed of less active ice processes above the freezing level. The typhoon rainrate is more intense than that of meiyu, enhanced by higher coalescence efficiency. A revised generalized intercept parameter versus mass-weighted mean diameter (Nw-Dm) space diagram is constructed to describe the DSD distributions over the three events and illustrate the relative DSD positions for heavy precipitation. DSDs of these intense rainfall convections observed in this midlatitude region of eastern Asia somewhat represent the typical DSD characteristics in low latitudes, suggesting that the parameterization of microphysical characteristics in eastern China in numerical models needs to be further investigated to improve rain fall forecasts in these heavy rainfall events.

Relative roles of dry intrusion, latent heat and instabilities in the Mei-yu rainband life cycle: A case study

Simulations using a convection-permitting numerical model (The Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF) are conducted to investigate the mechanisms responsible for the maintenance and organization of long-lived moist convection into a Mei-yu rainband (091800–101,800 UTC June 2008). This rainband was composed of multiple two-dimensional precipitation bandings, being elongated from the southwest to the northeast with the narrow width.In addition to establishment of the Mei-yu frontal zone, the northwesterly flow behind the mid-tropospheric trough also brought about upper-level dry air. The downward transport of the dry air had a high value of potential vorticity and just overrode the low-level moist southwesterly component, inducing the conditional instability (CI) and frontogenesis at the coherent regions. This behavior combined with the Mei-yu frontogenesis, leading to successive convection to maintain the rainband, whereas the latent heat was not directly linked to the rainband longevity. The releases of CI, conditionally symmetric and inertial instabilities were simultaneously present in the bandings, as an indication of the mechanisms for the formation of banded structures. Therefore, the mesoscale circulations in banded convection developed in the form of coexisted upward and slantwise motions. Our attempt to integrate the dry intrusion and multiple instabilities could be a vital significance in discussing the Mei-yu rainband development.

Improving Polarimetric C-Band Radar Rainfall Estimation with Two-Dimensional Video Disdrometer Observations in Eastern China

Abstract In this study, the capability of using a C-band polarimetric Doppler radar and a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) to estimate monsoon-influenced summer rainfall during the Observation, Prediction and Analysis of Severe Convection of China (OPACC) field campaign in 2014 and 2015 in eastern China is investigated. Three different rainfall R estimators, for reflectivity at horizontal polarization [R(Zh)], for reflectivity at horizontal polarization and differential reflectivity factor [R(Zh, Zdr)], and for specific differential phase [R(KDP)], are derived from 2-yr 2DVD observations of summer precipitation systems. The radar-estimated rainfall is compared to gauge observations from eight rainfall episodes. Results show that the two polarimetric estimators, R(Zh, Zdr) and R(KDP), perform better than the traditional Zh–R relation [i.e., R(Zh)]. The KDP-based estimator [i.e., R(KDP)] produces the best rainfall accumulations. The radar rainfall estimators perform differently across the three organized convective systems (mei-yu rainband, typhoon rainband, and squall line). Estimator R(Zh) overestimates rainfall in the mei-yu rainband and squall line, and R(Zh, Zdr) mitigates the overestimation in the mei-yu rainband but has a large bias in the squall line. QPE from R(KDP) is the most accurate among the three estimators, but it possesses a relatively large bias for the squall line compared to the mei-yu case. The high variability of drop size distribution (DSD) related to the precipitation microphysics in different types of rain is largely responsible for the case-dependent QPE performance using any single radar rainfall estimator. The squall line has a distinct ice-phase process with a large mean size of raindrops, while the mei-yu rainband and typhoon rainband are composed of smaller raindrops. Based on the statistical QPE error in the ZH–ZDR space, a new composite rainfall estimator is constructed by combining R(Zh), R(Zh, Zdr), and R(KDP) and is proven to outperform any single rainfall estimator.

Influence of Kuroshio SST front in the East China Sea on the climatological evolution of Meiyu rainband

The influence of Kuroshio sea surface temperature (SST) front in the East China Sea (ECS) on the temporal evolution of climatological Meiyu rainband was investigated using a suite of high-resolution satellite observations and a reanalysis dataset from 2000 to 2011. During the northward seasonal march of Meiyu rainband from the warmer flank of the SST front to the colder flank, the climatological rainband strength weakened substantially despite large-scale environment became more conducive to intensify precipitation. A sharp reduction in occurrence frequency of precipitation with relatively shallower depth and smaller intensity was responsible for the weakening of Meiyu rainband. During the northward migration of Meiyu rainband, individual precipitation events became deeper and more intensive, and the contribution of convective precipitation to the rainband was enhanced, associated with the seasonal northward extension of high convective instability region over the ECS. The characteristics of Meiyu rainband evolution were generally supported by cloud observations. When Meiyu rainband was located on the warmer flank of the SST front, local enhanced mean surface wind convergence and variance of convergence at synoptic timescale by the warm SST of the Kuroshio favored strong surface convergence that may trigger precipitation. A detailed moisture budget analysis revealed that the major part of moisture for Meiyu precipitation was supplied by low-level wind convergence, with much smaller contribution from moisture advection. The variation of climatological precipitation associated with Meiyu northward migration depended on SST modulation of both surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence over the ECS.

Interdecadal change of the active‐phase summer monsoon in East Asia (Meiyu) since 1979

AbstractThe timing of active‐phase East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) undergoes a marked shift since 1979. Diagnostic analysis indicates that active convection over Taiwan has occurred later in the season, from late May to early June, with a tendency of increasingly intense rainfall. This timing shift of convection results from a southward migration of Meiyu rainband, driven by an upper‐level cyclonic anomaly over eastern China and a lower‐level anticyclonic anomaly in the subtropical Western Pacific. Together, these two circulation patterns enhance both the moisture transport and baroclinic forcing. The role of Western Pacific warming and anthropogenic greenhouse gases in these changes is suggested.

Robust Response of the East Asian Monsoon Rainband to Solar Variability

Abstract This study provides evidence of the robust response of the East Asian monsoon rainband to the 11-yr solar cycle and first identify the exact time period within the summer half-year (1958–2012) with the strongest correlation between the mean latitude of the rainband (MLRB) over China and the sunspot number (SSN). This period just corresponds to the climatological-mean East Asian mei-yu season, characterized by a large-scale quasi-zonal monsoon rainband (i.e., 22 May–13 July). Both the statistically significant correlation and the temporal coincidence indicate a robust response of the mei-yu rainband to solar variability during the last five solar cycles. During the high SSN years, the mei-yu MLRB lies 1.2° farther north, and the amplitude of its interannual variations increases when compared with low SSN years. The robust response of monsoon rainband to solar forcing is related to an anomalous general atmospheric pattern with an up–down seesaw and a north–south seesaw over East Asia.

Simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon by regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model: impacts of oceanic components

A successful simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon needs a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model (ROAM). How the performance of ROAM relies on the oceanic component model remains unknown. In this study, the authors investigated the effects of different oceanic components on the simulation of western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon in a ROAM. Three cases of simulations were performed, viz. the summer of 1998 (El Nino decaying phase), 2004 (El Nino developing phase), and 1993 (the non-ENSO phase). Results show that the coupled simulations for different ENSO phases exhibit improvements in the simulation of location of Meiyu rainband and spatial distribution of monsoon low-level flow over WNP, whereas the systemic cold biases of sea surface air temperature are further increased. The coupled simulations with different oceanic components show similar performance, which is not ENSO phase dependent. For the case of the summer of 1998, a slightly stronger western Pacific subtropical high and colder sea surface air temperature are found in the simulation with colder sea surface temperature (SST) biases. The colder SST biases are partly contributed by the ocean dynamics processes because the sea surface net flux favors a warmer SST. This study suggests that the dependence of performance of ROAM over WNP on oceanic models is much weaker than that on atmospheric models.