Megawati Soekarnoputri Research Articles

A Clash of Two Generations: A Comparative Deconstructive Discourse Analysis of Three News Reports on Megawati’s Critique for Indonesian Millennials

Written in the spirit of critical tradition, this paper aims to demystify the hegemony induced in the media coverages about the critique of Indonesian former president, Megawati Soekarnoputri, towards its millennials for ‘lacking contribution to the country’. By applying genre, deconstruction and dynamic perspective of ideological tension analyses, this article reveals how three different medias report the phenomenon differently by bringing up different topics to be discussed for their own purposes. While scrutinizing the relationship between the phenomenon and its news reports, this paper sees a need for a transvaluation to the concept of nationalism which in the end negates itself since the conception of nationalism itself has to do with power struggle that has the potential to degenerate the Self and harm the Other.

Strategies of ideological polarisation in the online news media: A social actor analysis of Megawati Soekarnoputri

This article examines strategies of ideological polarisation in the discourse of the Indonesian online news media site, Kompas.com. Applying Van Leeuwen’s model of social actor analysis and van Dijk’s concept of the ideological square, the study focuses on the representation of Megawati Soekarnoputri, leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) as an icon of ideological contestation during the 2014 presidential election. Situated in the era of digital platform convergence, the analysis uncovers a pattern of strategically ambiguous representations of Megawati and her apparently transgressive actions and interactions. This practice entices readers to ‘read between the lines’ and activate their ideological repertoire to determine in-group and out-group members. It also enables Kompas.com to pursue commercial objectives and navigate journalistic constraints by obscuring explicitly ideological content. The implications are discussed in terms of the impact of online news media discourse upon democratic political engagement, and women’s political participation.

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back: The Retrogression of Governance Reform and Anti-corruption Measure in Indonesia 1999–2001

There were high hopes that Gus Dur, after being appointed by the People Consultative Assembly (MPR) in 1999, would bring significant governance reform and more progressive anti-corruption measures for the first time because two top leaders (Gus Dur and Megawati) were from the opposition in the New Order era. This paper attempts to evaluate the governance reform and anti-corruption measures in 1999–2001. This paper argues that there was a valuable opportunity to push for further governance reforms and a bolder anti-corruption drive, as there was a legitimate political top leadership stemming from the free-and-fair election in 1999 embodied in the appointment of Gus Dur and Megawati Soekarnoputri as president and vice president, respectively, by the Consultative People Assembly (MPR). However, the political bickering and blatant competition over state resources for the election campaign in 2004 underlying Indonesia’s former government led to a setback in several governance reform areas, including judicial reform.

Peran Farid Husain dalam Perdamaian Aceh

This study concerns the process of resolving the Aceh’s conflict and the role of one of the leaders in Aceh's peace, Farid Husain. The purpose of this study is to examine and to discuss the history of the resolution of the Aceh’s conflict, and the role of Farid Husain in Aceh peace In collecting the data, this study uses historical and descriptive analytical methods. The method of data collection is through three methods, namely observation, interview and documentation study. The results showed that during the conflict in Aceh, very much effort was made by the Government of the Republic of Indonesia to resolve the Aceh’s conflict, starting from the reigns of President Soekarno, Suharto, BJ, Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Soekarno Putri, to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Government and Vice President M. Jusuf Kalla who became the solution to the peaceful conflict in Aceh through intensive direct dialogue between facilitated by the Crisis Management Initiative (CMI). Farid Husain was one of the people involved in the Aceh peace process who played a role in opening communication with GAM leaders and working behind the scenes to supply information about Aceh and GAM in the interests of the Indonesian peace team in resolving the Aceh conflict through peaceful means. The results of the study also found that the Aceh peace process was collectively carried out by various parties, not involving one actor, one of which was Farid Husain who played the role of To See The Actor, also involving various other figures including the Acehnese leaders themselves.

Framing Women Politician in Democratic Environment: A Study of Megawati Soekarno Putri and Hillary Clinton

This research was aimed to examine how media coverage produces particular framing toward women politician during presidential campaign as well as the significance behind the framings toward gender conception in Indonesia and America. Media holds a vital political role as it helps shaping people’s opinion over particular issues and figures. As media coverage toward particular candidates can profoundly affect election outcomes, it is interesting to see how media presents two women figures who ran for presidential race.This is a qualitative research. The main sources of data are articles gathered from eight online-based news outlets. There are two kinds of data; primary and secondary data. For analysis on Megawati Soekarno Putri, the primary data are articles from Detik, Liputan6, and Tempo. While for Hillary Clinton, the data are articles from The New York Times, USA Today, The Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, and The Wall Street Journal. The secondary data are all selected works or research related to the topic such as reference books and journals.This research was done under the framework of American Studies. Since American Studies is interdisciplinary, it involves various theories and disciplines. This research uses gender theory to observe how media shape the image of women politician through their news coverage. Critical discourse analysis is used to explore the significance of media framing on women politician to society’s conception of women’s gender roles. Then, framing theory is important to analyze media’s method and ideology in constructing the facts within the coverage.In the research analysis, it is found that there are various framings used by media to describe Hillary Clinton and Megawati Soekarno Putri. While media in two countries have different focuses, news coverage on both media share the same stereotyping woman theme such as emphasis on physical appearance and family association. In the end, learning from the media framing toward woman politician, we can conclude that despite feminist achievement in many areas, woman are still highly perceived as unfit to be in political world. Keywords: Gender, politics, media, framing.

Indonesian presidents and communal violence against non-mainstream faiths

Indonesia in the post-New Order era saw frequent incidents of religious violence. These began with bloody sectarian conflicts in the cities of Ambon and Poso, which pitted Muslims against Christians. During the era of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004–2014), heresy campaigns against non-mainstream faiths (Ahmadiyah and Shi’a) increased, followed by attacks mainly levelled at properties belonging to members of these minority communities. Scholars have argued that Yudhoyono and his predecessors, Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati Soekarnoputri, should be held responsible for this frequent violence. However, while the presidents’ ideological outlooks or personalities may have been contributing factors, this article will focus rather on the institutional factors that hindered their responses to the violence. At times, the presidents encouraged initiatives to promote the rights of minorities. However, these programmes faced constraints from other state institutions due to the bureaucracy and judiciary’s inclination to preserve majoritarian social order and the hegemonic interpretation of the Belief in One God article in the state’s foundational philosophical theory (Pancasila). These challenges were further compounded by a decline in presidential power in the post-New Order era. This article argues that, so long as these constraints exist, any Indonesian president will have difficulties overcoming violence against minority communities.

Political linkages between CSOs and parliament in Indonesia: a case study of political linkages in drafting the Aceh Governance Law

ABSTRACTThis research explores how political linkages between civil society organizations (CSOs) and Parliament are established, formed, and operated, using the drafting of the Aceh Governance Law as a case study. It finds that the initiative of establishing political linkages between CSOs and Parliament was taken by the CSOs joined in the Aceh Democracy Network (JDA, Jaringan Demokrasi Aceh). It confirms Lawson’s finding that parties are not the only linkage providers; however, the establishment of non-party linkages are not indicators of parties’ failure to provide linkage. This article shows how what Lawson terms ‘typology’—participatory linkage, policy-responsive linkage, linkage by reward, directive or coercive linkage—is manifested more as different ‘dimensions’ of linkages. Participatory linkage involves a bottom-up model, unlike directive or coercive linkage, which are top-down. Likewise, the motives behind responsive linkages—for aspirations, demands, and views to be heard—tend to be from the bottom, while the motives of linkage by reward is more frequently from the top.Abbreviations: ACSTF: Aceh Civil Society Task Force; ADF: Aceh Development Fund. Independent non-profit organization that works to mobilize funds and other resources to be channelled to CSOs are characterized by changes in the framework of poverty alleviation and strengthening of democracy, with the scope of the working area of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam; AJMI: Aceh Judicial Monitoring Institute. Aceh-based nongovernmental organization which advocates for victims of state violence; Cetro: Centre for Electoral Reform. Non-profit organization that aim to strengthen and promote fair elections through electoral system reformation; Demos: Lembaga Kajian Demokrasi dan Hak Asasi (democracy and human rights think tank); ELSAM: Lembaga Studi dan Advokasi Masyarakat (Institute for Societal Study and Advocacy); Flower: Aceh-based civil society organization concerned with gender, empowerment and strengthening grassroots women in urban and rural areas; FORBES: Forum bersama politisi asal Aceh (Joint Forum of Politicians from Aceh); Forum: LSM Aceh Forum Lembaga Swadaya Masyarakat (Aceh Nongovernment Organization Forum); GAM: Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh Movement); Golkar: Golongan Karya (Functional Groups). Party formed under the New Order and represented as a governmental party at that time; ICW: Indonesia Corruption Watch. Nongovernmental organization founded in 1998 whose primary mission is to monitor and report to the public incidents of corruption in Indonesia; Imparsial: Indonesian Human Rights Monitor. Founded in 2002 to monitor and investigate human right violations; JDA: Jaringan Demokrasi Aceh (Aceh Democracy Network); JPUK: Jaringan Perempuan untuk Kebijakan (Women’s Policy Network); Kalyanamitra: Women’s advocacy organization, especially for women who work as labourers, farmers, fishers, informal sector workers. Kalyanamitra derives from Sanskrit ‘Good Friend’; Koalisi NGO HAM: Coalition of Human Right Nongovernment Organizations. Founded in 1998 by nongovernmental organizations whose concern is promoting human rights in Aceh; KontraS: Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence; KPMD: Komite Monitoring Perdamaian dan Demokrasi (Committee for Peace and Democracy). Founded in Aceh in 2002 to bring peace and justice for Acehnese people; MISPI: Mitra Sejati Perempuan Indonesia (True Partner of Indonesian Women). Aceh-based women’s organization that promotes women’s participation and encourages women to speak with their own voices; MPR: Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat (People’s Consultative Assembly); PAN: Partai Amanat Nasional (National Mandate Party). Moderate Islamist political party that was founded by reformists, including Amien Rais, former chairman of the Muhammadiyah organization; PBR: Partai Bintang Reformasi (Star of Reform Party). Islamist political party founded in 2002 as a result of PPP conflict; PDIP: Partai Demokrasi Indonesia-Perjuangan (Indonesian Democrat Party-Struggle). Founded by Megawati Soekarnoputri, daughter of Soekarno, in 1999; PDRM: Pergerakan Demokratik Rakyat Miskin (Democratic Movement for the Poor); PKB: Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (National Awakening Party). Established in 1998, representing Nahdlatul Ulama organization (associations of ulamas formed in 1926 in East Java); PKS: Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (Prosperous Justice Party). New name of Partai Keadilan (Justice Party), which emerged from the Tarbiyah party movement; PPP: Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (United Development Party). Founded by the New Order in 1973 as part of the ‘rationalization of political life’; PSHK: Pusat Studi Hukum dan Kebijakan (Centre for Legal and Policy Studies). Established in 2008 by several scholars, advocates, and law students to drive efforts for legal reform after the 1998 reformation; WALHI: Wahana Lingkungan Hidup Indonesia (Indonesian Environmental Forum). Founded in 1980, its scope is broader than just environmental concerns, but also works for social transformation, people’s sovereignty, and sustainability of life and livelihoods; YAPPIKA: Yayasan Penguatan Partisipasi Inisiatif dan Kemitraan Masyarakat (Foundation to Reinforce Public Participation, Initiative, and Partnership). Founded in 1991 to promote peacebuilding, development of democratic local governance, active citizenship, and claiming state responsibility to meet people’s basic needs

Ideal Leader Characters in Indonesia According to Megawati Soekarnoputri’s Perspective

Ideal Leader Characters in Indonesia According to Megawati Soekarnoputri’s Perspective

POLITIK PEMBERLAKUAN SYARI`AT ISLAM DI ACEH DAN KELANTAN (1993-2014)

The application of Islamic rules in Aceh and Kelantan is also related to the political power. There is a significant difference about political treatment on the application of Islamic law in Aceh and Kelantan. In Aceh, the central government (Indonesia) thinks that it is needed to apply jinâyah law in Aceh as a strategy to solve conflicts. This political rule has been applied in the republic of Indonesia since the leadership of Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Soekarno Putri to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The main factor that influences the Indonesian political government rule is the central conflict with the Acehnese in the leadership of Soeharto presidential to the Helsinski Agreement 2005. Some vertical conflicts happened between the central government and the Acehnese were solved by giving special autonomy in applying the Islamic rules. Not only family law and economic law which are given autonomy to be applied in Aceh, but also the autonomy to apply jinâyah Law. In Kelantan, Federal government (Malaysia) did not have political wish to apply Jinayah Law in Kelantan since the leadership of Mahathir Muhammad, Abdullah Badawi to Najib Razak. Moreover the federal government made the issue of the application of jinâyah law as the political commodity to get the political sympathy from the people, who are the partner of non Moslem voters in the national ranks and some Moslem voters who are not affiliated with PAS. This political needs factor is kept by the Federal Government to respond the Kelantan’s government wish to apply Islamic rules.Copyright (c) 2015 by Al-Ihkam. All right reserved DOI : 10.19105/al-ihkam.v10i1.588

POLITIK PEMBERLAKUAN SYARI`AT ISLAM DI ACEH DAN KELANTAN (1993-2014)

The application of Islamic rules in Aceh and Kelantan is also related to the political power. There is a significant difference about political treatment on the application of Islamic law in Aceh and Kelantan. In Aceh, the central government (Indonesia) thinks that it is needed to apply j inâyah law in Aceh as a strategy to solve conflicts. This political rule has been applied in the republic of Indonesia since the leadership of Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Soekarno Putri to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The main factor that influences the Indonesian political government rule is the central conflict with the Acehnese in the leadership of Soeharto presidential to the Helsinski Agreement 2005. Some vertical conflicts happened between the central government and the Acehnese were solved by giving special autonomy in applying the Islamic rules. Not only family law and economic law which are given autonomy to be applied in Aceh, but also the autonomy to apply j inâyah Law. In Kelantan, Federal government (Malaysia) did not have political wish to apply Jinayah Law in Kelantan since the leadership of Mahathir Muhammad, Abdullah Badawi to Najib Razak. Moreover the federal government made the issue of the application of j inâyah law as the political commodity to get the political sympathy from the people, who are the partner of non Moslem voters in the national ranks and some Moslem voters who are not affiliated with PAS. This political needs factor is kept by the Federal Government to respond the Kelantan’s government wish to apply Islamic rules. Copyright (c) 2015 by Al-Ihkam. All right reserved DOI : 10.19105/al-ihkam.v10i1.588

CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN INDONESIAN FOREIGN POLICY

This article focuses on Indonesian foreign policy change and continuity and then the discussion of foreign policy at present. The analysis is carried out in six periods of Indonesia’s foreign policy change and continuity, namely Soekarno’s Old Order Era period (1945-1965), Soeharto’s New Order Era period (1965-1998), and four Indonesian governments in the Reformation Era; Habibie period (1998-Oct1999), Abdurahman Wahid period (1999-July 2001), Megawati Soekarnoputri period (2001-October 2004), and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono period (2004 – now). This paper concludes that since the fall of Soeharto, Indonesia’s diplomacy was called upon to play a substantive role in meeting an array of challenges in the economic, political and social fields that threatened the unity, integrity, and sovereignty of the Republic.

Enhancing Learning Support System through the Use of Information and Communication Technology: a Case at Universitas Terbuka

The revolution of information and communication technology (ICT) has brought the new millennium into an information era. The general consensus is that we have entered the information age and that we will not be exempted from the current forces of technological development and globalization (Taylor, 1998), have been acknowledged and realized. Nevertheless, in less advantaged countries, it has also raised a lot of worries. As with other countries, the Indonesian government is determined to harness the use of information and communication technology (ICT) for increasing the country’s national competitiveness. The initial step was done through the establishment of the Indonesian Telematics Coordinating Team (known as TKTI) in 2000, consisting of all cabinet ministers and chaired by the Vice President of Indonesia at the time, Megawati Soekarnoputri. In 2001, the ICT national plan was formulated by Presidential Decree No. 6/2001 (“Guidelines for the Development and Implementation of ICT in Indonesia”), which states the government’s general policy towards ICT and calls on TKTI to take an active role to drive ICT implementation in Indonesia (International Telecommunication Union, 2002) Indonesia is one the largest countries within ASEAN with a population of over 215 million. The country is mostly water (81%) with five big islands and about 14 thousands of small islands. Despite the economic crisis, which started in 1997, Indonesia has progressively increased its telecommunication network over the last decade. Nowadays, Indonesia ranks number 13 within the top 20 countries with highest number of Internet users (Internet World Stats, 2006). However, the percentage of Internet users to the total population is only about 8.1 %. This is slightly lower than the Internet penetration in China (8.5%) and much lower than that in other ASEAN countries such as Malaysia (36.7%) and Singapore (67.2%). According to Internet World Stats (2006), the growth of ICT users in Indonesia within the last five years was phenomenal (800%), increasing the number from around 2 million (in 2000) to about 18 million (in 2005). Nevertheless, only about 8% or only around 1.5 million of those users are Internet subscribers (APJII, 2006). The increase in user number was initially due to the expansion of Internet access points provided by Internet Kiosks (known as WARNET), which are mostly owned by private individual business enterprise. A survey conducted by APJII in 2002 showed that about 43% of users accessed Internet from WARNET (APJII cited in International Telecommunication Union, 2002). The rest accessed Internet from offices (41%), homes (12%), and schools/universities (4%). The growth of WARNET gave a lot of hopes to Indonesians who can not afford to have computers and Internet access in their personal homes and work places; and had helped increase the Internet penetration in Indonesia significantly. However, the later survey in 2004 showed a significant decrease in the number of Internet users surfing from the WARNETs. Nugroho (in Purbo, 2005) reported that this was caused by the reduced number of WARNET from approximately around 2,500 in 2002 to about only 1,724 in early 2004. Discussion in various mailing lists blamed the high telecommunication tariffs for the decreased number of those Indonesian WARNETs. “Other explanations included the conversion of WARNETs into gaming centers, illegal tariffs imposed by local governments, and some local governments requiring WARNETs to apply for a license to operate as entertainment center” (Purbo, 2005, p. 103)

Javanese culture as the source of legitimacy for Soeharto’s government

Since its independence on the 17th of August 1945, Indonesia has been governed consecutively by five presidents. Among them, Retired Army Great General Soeharto managed to be president for more than 32 years. There were many factors making him succeed in reaching, promoting, as well as maintaining power for these years. Despite his ability to place the military forces and police, the civilian bureaucracy, the Functional Group called Golkar, as well as the conglomerates under his own tight control, he also managed to manipulate Javanese cultural values as the source of legitimacy for his decisions and policies. As a puritan Javanese, Soeharto believed that a number of traditional Javanese thoughts in the forms of guidance and prohibitions, when practiced, would not only make individuals but also the Indonesian people in general have a noble and generous mind, or ber budi bawa leksana, that is: the ones who are really good as the essence of goodness, or becik sajatining becik. He claimed that it would not be difficult for the Indonesian people to improve their consciousness as the nation of Indonesia in their state, government and social life on the basis of Pancasila, if they understood Javanese cultural values properly (Rukmana 1993:xi). Based on this belief, Soeharto then tried to convince people that his all decisions and policies were socially just and philosophically correct because they had been based on very high Javanese philosophical values. As for example, when he treated his enemy or rival, such as ex-President Soekarno, or when he responded the critiques launched by his rivals or enemies, like Sawito Kartowibowo, Jailani Naro, Soeryadi, Megawati Soekarnoputri, Abdurahman Wahid, Permadi, Sri Bintang Pamungkas, and Amien Rais, challenging his position as the President or asking questions about presidential succession, Soeharto knew how to manipulate Javanese cultural values in order to justify or even legitimize his decisions and policies.

Opposing Suharto: compromise, resistance, and regime change in Indonesia

Contents Acknowledgments Preface 1. Regime and opposition 2. Suharto's New Order: origins and opening 3. Regime friction and elite dissidence 4. Proto-opposition: NGOs and the Legal Aid Institute 5. Student activism: from moral force to popular mobilization 6. Megawati Soekarnoputri and the PDI 7. Prelude to the fall: the 1996 crisis and its aftermath 8. The fall of Suharto 9. Indonesia's opposition and democratic transition in comparative perspective 10. Legacies of Suharto and his opposition Glossary Bibliography Index Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: Indonesia Politics and government 1966-1998, Soeharto, 1921-Opposition (Political science) Indonesia History 20th century

Indonésie 2003 : L'obsession sécuritaire

François Raillon The year 2003 in Indonesia was characterized by an attempt to overcome social restlessness and political strife through a "security approach". Megawati's presidency was more assertive due to her strenuous battle to curb insecurity in various ways: imposing martial law in Aceh, waging a local war on terrorism especially after the Marriott bombing, and leading a more active foreign policy. These efforts at stabilizing Indonesia were meant to prepare for the general and presidential elections in 2004, and improve the chances of the current head of state to be reelected. However, the army seemed intent to reemerge as a political force, while Golkar, the former party of general Soeharto, was making a political comeback. Megawati Soekarnoputri tried to deal with these challenges by using a strong hand, and courting a public opinion that is turning more conservative. Presenting facts and analyses, this articles conveys the changing moods of 2003, which may portend the end of reformasi and a return to authoritarianism.

The Indonesian Islamic Debate on a Woman President

This paper traces the debate by Indonesian scholars of Islam concerning the acceptability of a woman as president according to the sources of Islam. The actual goal of the debate was purely political and aimed at preventing Megawati Soekarnoputri from reaching the position of president. Religious argumentations were used to circumvent the popular vote. Religious reasoning however was heavily mixed with arguments and biases against women derived from politics local culture and social hierarchy. The debate caught the national attention since it raised principal questions about who holds the authority over the formation of religious opinions and about the protection of womens rights as assigned to them by the holy sources of Islam. In the long run the debate did not just concern Megawatis bid for the presidency but opened the door for abuse of the holy texts. (authors)

Indonesia in 2001: Restoring Stability in Jakarta

Research Article| February 01 2002 Indonesia in 2001: Restoring Stability in Jakarta Michael S. Malley Michael S. Malley Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Asian Survey (2002) 42 (1): 124–132. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2002.42.1.124 Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Peer Review Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Cite Icon Cite Search Site Citation Michael S. Malley; Indonesia in 2001: Restoring Stability in Jakarta. Asian Survey 1 February 2002; 42 (1): 124–132. doi: https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2002.42.1.124 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAsian Survey Search This content is only available via PDF. © Regents of the University of California Article PDF first page preview Close Modal You do not currently have access to this content.

Populist Perceptions and Perceptions of Populism in Indonesia

The populist rise of Megawati Soekarnoputri – Vice-President of Indonesia since the 1999 elections – is commonly explained in terms of Indonesia's ‘traditional political culture’ or ‘Javanese ideas of power’. In contrast, this paper establishes that Megawati emerged as an opposition figure in the course of the 1980s and 1990s through a series of highly contingent political events and manoeuvres that can be understood only in the context of the internal workings and tensions of the Suharto regime. Moreover, popular support for Megawati involved much more active popular mobilization on the part of her followers than suggestions of passive belief in her inherent charisma or notions of traditional political culture could possibly explain. The paper argues that Megawati's popularity, her alleged charisma, and her populist appeal must be understood as a relationship – a relationship which, like that between her father, Soekarno, and his supporters, has been characterized by an abiding tension, a tension that has been at the core of modern Indonesian politics. Seen in these terms, the populist rise of Megawati Soekarnoputri rode on a long pent-up mix of popular energies and aspirations, pitted against the Suharto regime and the military and civilian leaders of the New Order establishment.

Southeast Asia: Towards a Sustained Recovery?

Asia's astonishing bounce-back was the cover story of the Economist at the end of August 1999. In the latter part of 1999, other daily and weekly journals covering Asian affairs also proclaimed the economic crisis to be over; some declared the patients not just to be out of intensive care but ready to be discharged from the convalescent home. But while there appears to be con vincing evidence of a remarkable turnaround in South Korea, was this really the case for the worst affected Southeast Asian economies? The Indonesian economy, which had suffered the largest decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in 1998 was buffeted by two severe shocks in August and September 1999, which made predictions of a rapid return to positive growth look distinctly dubious. On the one hand, the Bank Bali scandal seemed to demonstrate that officials close to President Habibie were apparently just as corruption-prone as were those around former President Soeharto, while the post-election turmoil in East Timor severely damaged the reputation, at home and abroad, of both the army and the civilian administration. Both events led to a fall in the value of the rupiah and fears that investor confidence, still very fragile, would be further undermined. In October 1999, the People's Consultative Assembly refused to accept President's Habibie's account of his brief term in office, whereupon he withdrew from the presidential election. The subsequent ballot led to the election of the well-known Islamic leader and democracy activist, Abdurrahman Wahid, as president. Megawati Soekarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia's first president, whose party had garnered the largest number of votes in the June elections, became the vice-president. But the honeymoon period for the new team was brief, and by early December the increasingly strident calls for a referendum in Aceh, and continued religious violence in the province of Maluku, were causing widespread fears that the Indonesian state was teetering on the verge of disintegration. If we judge the severity of the crisis by the decline in real GDP in 1998, then both Thailand (-9.4 per cent) and Malaysia (-7.5 per cent) were only slightly less badly affected than Indonesia (-13.7 per cent). Although by the

Indonesia: Preparing for Post‑Soeharto Rule and Its Impact on the Democratization Process

Although there is, as yet, no clear indication that President Soeharto will leave his office in 1998, rivalry among the top inner ?lite for future national leadership continues. At the same time, an embryo of oppositional politics is growing significantly, despite the fact that the government has tried hard to prevent it. Indeed, the struggle for democratization is still going on. However, unlike previous years when the government ?lite were also enthusiastically competing to impress the public with their democratic commitment, in 1994 such enthusiasm was not so apparent. The initiative to raise the issue of democratization has now been taken over by the political society outside the inner circle of the state ?lite. The June 1994 ban on Tempo, Editoraiv? DeTik, the three popular publications with nationwide circulation, ended all the optimism concerning the government's agenda for gradual democratization. To assume that the government can smoothly go along with its own political agenda, however, may be wrong. The elections of Megawati Soekarnoputri as the general chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party (Partai Demokrasi Indonesia [PDI] ) in December 1993, and of Abdurrahman Wahid as the general chairman of Nahdatul Ulama (NU) in December 1994 indicate the ineffectiveness of the old fashioned approach of covert operations to prevent those not favoured by the government from rising to the top leadership positions of political parties and social organizations. In the light of the latest developments, observers' most frequendy asked questions on Indonesian politics are: What is the future of Soeharto's rule? Will he stay in office for another term in 1998? What are the prospects of democratization in the coming years? In June 1994, General (ret.) Suhardiman, the chairman of SOKSI,1 made the surprising public statement that 1995 would see attempts by opposition groups to remove Soeharto. He said that there would be an initiative by some groups to propose the convening of a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (Majelis Permusyawaratnam Rakyat [MPR] ) to achieve this. To prepare