Megacity In China Research Articles

Exploring the acceptance of green electricity and relevant policy effect for residents of megacity in China

Renewable electricity, also called green electricity (green-e), has a significant effect on curbing carbon emissions (Zheng et al., 2021). This study employs a survey questionnaire to investigate the residents' intention to use green-e and the impact of possible policies in three megacities (Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen) in China. The study explores the households' intrinsic motivations that influence residents' intention to use green-e through the Theory of Planned Behavior model. It also investigates how policy instruments impact residents' intention to use green-e by extending the theory of the planned behavior model. The results show that attitude to green-e is the most crucial motivation affecting residents' intention and also reveal the significant effect of non-mandatory policy instruments on residents' intention to use green-e. Further results of heterogeneity analysis indicate that only in the high-level income group the impact of intention on the extra expenditure for green-e shows significance. This finding illustrates that the factor limiting the consumption and utilities of green-e in China is still and always the residents' income level; therefore, even though Chinese households have a clear preference for green electricity, the critical point to promoting residents' consumption is targeting the high-income group. Finally, the article proposes some policy implications for theoretical support to policymakers based on the research results and findings.

Association between ambient PM2.5 and outpatient visits of children's respiratory diseases in a megacity in Central China.

ObjectiveTo explore the relationship between ambient PM2.5 level and outpatient visits of children with respiratory diseases in a megacity, Zhengzhou, in central China.MethodsWe collected daily outpatient visit data, air pollutant data, and meteorological data at the monitoring points of Zhengzhou from the time period 2018 to 2020 and used Spearman's rank correlation to analyze the correlation between children's respiratory outpatient visits and air pollutants and meteorological factors. Generalized additive models were used to analyze the association between PM2.5 exposures and children's respiratory outpatient visits. A stratified analysis was further carried out for the seasons.ResultsFrom 2018 to 2020, the total number of outpatients with children's respiratory diseases was 79,1107, and the annual average concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3-8h in Zhengzhou were respectively 59.48 μg/m3, 111.12 μg/m3, 11.10 μg/m3, 47.77 μg/m3, 0.90 mg/m3 and 108.81 μg/m3. The single-pollutant model showed that the risk of outpatient visits for children with respiratory disease increased by 0.341% (95%CI: 0.274–0.407%), 0.532% (95%CI: 0.455–0.609%) and 0.233% (95%CI: 0.177–0.289%) for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 with a 3-day lag, 1-day lag, and 1-day lag respectively for the whole year, heating period, and non-heating period. The multi-pollutant model showed that the risk of PM2.5 on children's respiratory disease visits was robust. The excess risk of PM2.5 on children's respiratory disease visits increased by 0.220% (95%CI: 0.147–0.294%) when SO2 was adjusted. However, the PM2.5 effects were stronger during the heating period than during the non-heating period.ConclusionThe short-term exposure to PM2.5 was significantly associated with outpatient visits for children's respiratory diseases. It is therefore necessary to strengthen the control of air pollution so as to protect children's health.

The Planning and Implementation of COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Center in a Megacity in China.

The Planning and Implementation of COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Center in a Megacity in China.

Spatial characteristics and driving factors of urban flooding in Chinese megacities

Changes in hydrological processes caused by rapid urbanization lead to the growing incidence of urban flooding, which is a major challenge to urban sustainability. Urban floods have seriously threatened the natural environment and human life. Understanding the spatial patterns and influencing factors of urban flooding has important implications for mitigating urban flood hazards. Previous studies have demonstrated the impact of natural and human factors on urban flooding, but a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms of urban flooding requires appropriate scales and evidence from multiple cities. In this study, 1201 flood records from 2015 to 2020 in 9 megacities (including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Xi’an, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shenyang) in China were used to investigate the spatial characteristics and driving factors of urban flooding. A combination of multiple stepwise regression and boosted regression tree (BRT) models was used to reveal the flood driving mechanism in megacities. The results indicated that flood events in 9 cities presented an aggregation effect, but the spatial characteristics and kernel density were different between coastal and inland cities. At all scales (1 km, 3 km, 5 km), physical geomorphic features (2D and 3D landscapes) have a high contribution to urban flooding, especially patch density, density of buildings and building shape coefficients. The relative contributions of the 2D and 3D landscape pattern factors increased by 43.8 % and 36.2 % as the grid scale increased from 1 km to 5 km, respectively. However, the relative contributions of topography, meteorology and drainage capacity factors decreased by 47.6 %, 39.0 % and 33.2 %, respectively. At a large scale (5 km), the correlation of driving factors for urban flooding was stronger, and the dominant factors were more obvious. At a small scale (1 km), the contribution of driving factors is relatively average. The scale effect significantly affects urban flooding. which suggests that an appropriate scale can more accurately capture the dominant drivers of urban flooding. Therefore, a novel method that integrates the stepwise regression model and BRT model were presented to quantify the complex relationship between urban flooding and driving factors under various analysis scales. The methods and results proposed by our study provided important insights and perspectives for urban flood risk mitigation and urban planning through multiscale analysis of flood driving mechanisms.

How Photochemically Consumed Volatile Organic Compounds Affect Ozone Formation: A Case Study in Chengdu, China

Surface ozone (O3) pollution has not improved significantly in recent years. It is still the primary air pollution problem in many megacities in China during summertime. In high temperature and intense radiation weather, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are easily oxidized and degraded to induce O3 pollution. In order to understand the impact of difference between photochemical initial concentration (PIC) of VOCs and the actual measured concentration on O3 formation, a campaign was carried out during O3 pollution in Chengdu (25 July–5 August 2021). During this O3 pollution episode, the maximum value of O3 concentration reached 335.0 μg/m3, and the precursor concentrations increased significantly. The mean values of VOCmeasured and VOCPICs were 19.7 ppbv and 30.7 ppbv, corresponding to O3 formation potential (OFP) of 175.3 μg/m3 and 478.8 μg/m3, respectively, indicating that the consumption of VOCs content could not be ignored. Alkenes accounted for 77.2% of VOCs consumption. Alkenes and aromatics contributed 63.0% and 29.2% to OFP values which derived from PIC of each VOC species. The relative incremental reactivity analysis based on PICs showed that the O3 formation was controlled by the cooperation of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and VOCs, and the effect of NOx emission reduction was better.

Optical properties, molecular characterizations, and oxidative potentials of different polarity levels of water-soluble organic matters in winter PM2.5 in six China's megacities

Humic-like substances (HULIS) accounted for a great fraction of water-soluble organic matter (WSOM) in PM2.5, which efficiently absorb ultraviolet (UV) radiation and pose climate and health impacts. In this study, the molecular structure, optical properties, and oxidative potential (OP) of acid- and neutral-HULIS (denoted as HULIS-a, and HULIS-n, respectively), and high-polarity WSOM (HP-WSOM) were investigated in winter PM2.5 collected at six China's megacities. For both carbon levels and optical absorption coefficients (babs_365), HULIS-a/HULIS-n/HP-WSOM showed significant spatial differences. For each city, the carbon levels and babs_365 follow a similar order of HULIS-n > HULIS-a > HP-WSOM. Besides, the babs_365 of HULIS-n and HULIS-a showed the same order of Harbin > Beijing ≈ Wuhan > Xi'an > Guangzhou > Chengdu, while HP-WSOM exhibited an order of Wuhan > Chengdu > Xi'an > Harbin > Beijing > Guangzhou. Both HULIS-a and HULIS-n were abundant in aromatic and aliphatic compounds, whereas HP-WSOM was dominated by a carboxylic acid group. The OP (in unit of nmol H2O2 μg−1C) followed the order of HP-WSOM > HULIS-a > HULIS-n in all the cities. The OPs of HULIS-a, HULIS-n, and HP-WSOM in Harbin and Beijing were much higher than those of other cities, attributing to the high contribution from biomass burning. Highly positive correlations between reactive oxygen species (ROS) of HULIS-a and MAE365 were obtained in Chengdu, Wuhan, and Harbin, but ROS of HULIS-n had stronger correlation with MAE365 in Harbin, Chengdu, and Xi'an.

The evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions from sewage treatment with urbanization: Understanding the opportunities and challenges for climate change mitigation in China's low-carbon pilot city, Shenzhen

Sewage treatment provides a pathway for anthropogenic water purification that can address the growth in domestic sewage volumes due to urbanization and protect the aquatic environment. However, the process can also generate greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are sometimes termed “unrestricted” GHG emissions and are neglected by low carbon policies. A combination of a life cycle analysis (LCA), data envelopment analysis (DEA), and questionnaire survey was used to evaluate sewage treatment related GHG emissions and assess the GHG emission reduction efficiencies during 2005–2020, as well as determine the opinions of environmental managers regarding the threats to climate change mitigation posed by sewage treatment in the low carbon pilot city of Shenzhen, China. There were four main results. (1) GHG emissions from sewage treatment plants (STPs) in Shenzhen increased gradually from 0.22 Mt. CO2-eq in 2005 to 1.16 Mt. CO2-eq in 2020 with an emission intensity ranging from 0.41 to 0.58 kg CO2-eq/m3, mainly due to the indirect emissions from sludge disposal (35–57 %). Longgang administrative district was the hotspot of these GHG emissions during the study period. (2) Reductions in GHG emissions were achieved in most years since 2012 with the greatest efficiency observed in 2020. (3) Beyond the environmental managers' perceptions of the challenges in GHG mitigation, future sewage treatment may create the potential for more substantial GHG emission growth compared to the emissions from energy combustion, due to policy deficiencies, growth in sewage volumes, and the enforcement of stricter effluent quality control. (4) Several opportunities to overcome these barriers were considered including innovational environmental management, planting of constructed wetlands, and the promotion of water-saving behavior. This case study of Shenzhen has valuable implications for the synergistic governance of water pollution and climate change mitigation in megacities in China and elsewhere, enabling a move towards a future carbon-neutral society.

Intergenerational differences in the urban vibrancy of TOD: Impacts of the built environment on the activities of different age groups.

Transit-oriented development (TOD) has been regarded as an effective way to improve urban vibrancy and facilitate affordable, equitable, and livable communities in metro station areas (MSAs). Previous studies placed great attention on the interplay between the MSA-level built environment and overall human activities while neglecting the heterogeneity among different age groups. To address this gap, we leverage the mobile phone signaling data to quantify the spatio-temporal distribution of the MSA-level human activities among different age groups as measured by the vibrancy index (VI). Furthermore, we investigate the impact of the MSA-level built environment on the VI and its intergenerational differences by employing multiple linear regressions based on multi-sourced data. To this end, Chengdu—a TOD-thriving megacity in China—is chosen as a case study. The results indicate that: (1) Residential and bus stop density are positively associated with the VI. And the magnitudes of the correlation coefficients are similar among different age groups. (2) Distance to CBD is negatively associated with the VI of teenagers (12–18 years), middle-aged adults (40–59 years), and older adults (above 60 years) but unrelated to the VI of young adults (19–39 years). (3) Employment density is positively associated with the VI of young and middle-aged adults but insignificantly associated with the VI of teenagers and older adults. (4) The correlations between the floor area ratio and the VI are positive for all age groups. As age increases, the significance of such correlations becomes more pronounced. (5) Streetscape greenery shows a more significant positive correlation with the VI of teenagers and older adults as compared to those of young and middle-aged adults. (6) Significant negative correlations exist between housing price and the VI of different age groups. The findings can inform the development and design of vibrant TOD communities.

Operation Characteristics of a Free-Floating Bike Sharing System as a Feeder Mode to Rail Transit Based on GPS Data

The jobs-housing imbalance and long commuting distances for residents in many megacities in China are promoting the increase in mode share with rail transit. The emergence of free-floating bike sharing (FFBS) provides an attractive and cost-effective multi-modal solution to the first/last mile problem. This study identifies the mobility patterns of free-floating bikes as a feeder mode to 277 rail transit stations in Beijing using detailed GPS data, and the relationships between these patterns, culture and spatial layout of the city are examined. The results show that the distribution of free-floating bikes, as a feeder mode to rail transit, exhibits an aggregating feature in the spatial-temporal pattern on weekdays. According to the results of the Clusters method and ANOVA analysis, the operation characteristics of free-floating bikes are related to the location of the transit station and the job-to-housing ratio around that area, and imbalanced usage of shared bikes across the city may result from the extreme values of job-to-housing ratios. Based on the fitted distance decay curve, accessing distance is greatly influenced by urban morphology and location. Based on these findings, recommendations for planning, management, and rebalancing of the FFBS system as a feeder mode to rail transit are proposed to promote the integration of FFBS and the rail transit system.

Research on the Planning Method and Strategy of Urban Wind and Heat Environment Optimization—Taking Shenzhen, a Sub-Tropical Megacity in Southern China, as an Example

The planning techniques and strategies for optimizing the urban wind and heat environment are important means for cities to adapt to climate change at the source. This study used Shenzhen, a sub-tropical megacity in southern China, as an example for evaluating the climate environment, heat island intensity, and urban form, and then for analyzing the relationships between them. The results revealed a high-quality climate area located southeast of Shenzhen that can provide a high wind speed and low temperature. Low-quality climate areas were located in the central and western regions and were less comfortable. The relationship between surface ventilation potential and urban form was analyzed using linear regression and the Pearson correlation coefficient, showing that there was a significant correlation between a surface urban heat island (SUHI) and building density (BD) as well as the sky view factor (SVF), and that there was also a correlation between the ventilation potential coefficient (VPC) and other factors, such as the surface’s roughness length (RL) and building height (BH). The results showed that ventilation capacity deteriorated as BH and RL increased. An environmentally sensitive thermal area was identified from the surface urban heat island intensity, which was always in a strong heat island (SHI) or sub-strong heat island (SSHI) year-round. It was recommended that seven level one corridors and nine level two corridors be formed. Additionally, thermal and wind environment optimization strategies and protective suggestions were proposed for the city’s overall development.

Impacts of traffic-related particulate matter pollution on semen quality: A retrospective cohort study relying on the random forest model in a megacity of South China

BackgroundEmerging evidence shows the detrimental impacts of particulate matter (PM) on poor semen quality. High-resolution estimates of PM concentrations are conducive to evaluating accurate associations between traffic-related PM exposure and semen quality. MethodsIn this study, we firstly developed a random forest model incorporating meteorological factors, land-use information, traffic-related variables, and other spatiotemporal predictors to estimate daily traffic-related PM concentrations, including PM2.5, PM10, and PM1. Then we enrolled 1310 semen donors corresponding to 4912 semen samples during the study period from January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2019 in Guangzhou city, China. Linear mixed models were employed to associate individual exposures to traffic-related PM during the entire (0–90 lag days) and key periods (0–37 and 34–77 lag days) with semen quality parameters, including sperm concentration, sperm count, progressive motility and total motility. ResultsThe results showed that decreased sperm concentration was associated with PM10 exposures (β: -0.21, 95 % CI: −0.35, −0.07), sperm count was inversely related to both PM2.5 (β: -0.19, 95 % CI: −0.35, −0.02) and PM10 (β: -0.19, 95 % CI: −0.33, −0.05) during the 0–90 days lag exposure window. Besides, PM2.5 and PM10 might diminish sperm concentration by mainly affecting the late phase of sperm development (0–37 lag days). Stratified analyses suggested that PBF and drinking seemed to modify the associations between PM exposure and sperm motility. We did not observe any significant associations of PM1 exposures with semen parameters. ConclusionOur results indicate that exposure to traffic-related PM2.5 and PM10 pollution throughout spermatogenesis may adversely affect semen quality, especially sperm concentration and count. The findings provided more evidence for the negative associations between traffic-related PM exposure and semen quality, highlighting the necessity to reduce ambient air pollution through environmental policy.

Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 in early 2020

A novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019, named as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization (WHO). This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread at the early stage of the transmission. A series of connectivity and risk analyses based on domestic and international travel networks were conducted using historical aggregated mobile phone data and air passenger itinerary data. We found that the cordon sanitaire of the primary city was likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city, with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that there were 59,912 international air passengers, of which 834 (95% uncertainty interval: 478–1,349) had COVID-19 infection, with a strong correlation seen between the predicted risks of importation and the number of imported cases found. Given the limited understanding of emerging infectious diseases in the very early stages of outbreaks, our approaches and findings in assessing travel patterns and risk of transmission can help guide public health preparedness and intervention design for new COVID-19 waves caused by variants of concern and future pandemics to effectively limit transmission beyond its initial extent.

Establishment of a Combined Model for Ozone Concentration Simulation with Stepwise Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Network

With the development of industrialization and the increase in the number of motor vehicles in megacities in China, ozone pollution has become a prominent problem. Although different models have been used on ozone concentration simulation, the accuracy of different models still varies. In this study, the performance of two models including a linear stepwise regression (SR) model and a non-linear artificial neural network (ANN) model on the simulation of ozone concentration were analyzed in the Jing-Jin-Ji region, which is one of the most polluted areas in China. Results showed that the performance of the ANN model (adjusted R2 = 0.8299, RMSE = 22.87, MAE = 16.92) was better than the SR model (adjusted R2 = 0.7324, RMSE = 28.61, MAE = 22.30). The performance of the ANN on simulating an ozone pollution event was better than the SR model since a higher probability of detection (POD) and threat score (TS) values were obtained by the ANN model. The model performance for spring, autumn and winter was generally higher than that for summer, which may because the weights of factors on simulating high and low ozone concentrations were different. The method proposed by this study can be used in ozone concentration estimation.

Observational Evidence of the ground BC's "Double face" in megacity of eastern China:enhanced O3 and declined PM2.5 pollution

Observational Evidence of the ground BC's "Double face" in megacity of eastern China:enhanced O3 and declined PM2.5 pollution

Tracking embodied energy flows of China's megacities via multi-scale supply chains

Urban energy requirements not only involve energy supplies within self-boundaries, but also impose huge demands via domestic and global supply chains. By constructing a multi-scale input-output model, this study depicts embodied energy uses of China's four megacities including urban, national, and global scales. The total embodied energy requirements of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing are 8576.61, 6309.56, 11448.19, and 6941.43 PJ, respectively. Shanghai has the highest embodied energy use per capita (464.24 GJ), followed by Tianjin (447.49 GJ), Beijing (390.91 GJ), and Chongqing (220.78 GJ). Fixed capital formation accounts for above 70% of local energy requirements in Chongqing as the leading final demand category, while Urban household consumption in Shanghai accounts for nearly 40% of its local energy requirements. More than 20% of energy requirements in Beijing are imported from foreign economies, while about 10% of embodied energy uses in Shanghai are exported to other countries, mainly due to their location advantages and economic openness. Through depicting energy requirements of urban economies, this study is essential to recognize visible and embodied energy uses along multi-scale supply chains and address cross-boundary potentials of energy saving at urban, national, and global scales.

Interactions among electricity consumption, disposable income, wastewater discharge, and economic growth: Evidence from megacities in China from 1995 to 2018

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development clarifies Goal 11 to make cities sustainable. Understanding the interacting relationships is the key to effective policies and addressing sustainable urban development. This paper aims to expand the research on the interactions between electricity consumption, disposable income, wastewater discharge, and economic growth. We apply the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and vector error correction model (VECM) in a panel of 14 Chinese megacities from 1995 to 2018. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The decrease in efficiency of electricity consumption in these cities will reduce average disposable income and increase the intensity of wastewater discharge; (2) In turn, the increase of wastewater discharge intensity will also reduce the power efficiency; (3) The development of these cities is still at the cost of polluting the water environment; (4) There is a sign of decoupling of economic growth and electricity consumption in these cities; (5) The Environmental Kuznets Curve can be established in these cities for industrial wastewater discharge. Accordingly, we propose policy implications in avoiding negative interactions that hinder sustainable development.

Interactions between Self-Perceived Weight Status and Lifestyle Behaviors and Their Associations with Childhood Obesity: Results from the Childhood Obesity Study in China Mega-Cities.

: BackgroundThis study investigated the interactions between self-perceived weight status and lifestyle behaviors, and their associations with childhood obesity among school children. Methods: Cross-sectional study data from a nationwide sample of 3258 participants (aged 8–15 years old) during 2015–2017 were used. Self-perceived weight status and lifestyle factors (dietary intake and physical activity) were assessed using self-administered questionnaires. Multivariable mixed-effects models tested the effect of interactions between weight self-perception and behavioral factors on overweight and obesity (ow/ob). Results: Overall ow/ob prevalence based on BMI was 30.9% (38.5% for boys, 23.0% for girls). Based on self-perceived weight status, ow/ob prevalence was 37.7% (35.8% for boys, 39.7% for girls). 41.2% of boys and 25.9% of girls underestimated their actual weight status. The interaction between self-perceived weight status and meat consumption was associated with ow/ob in boys, while the interaction between self-assessed weight status and protein foods and sedentary lifestyle were associated with ow/ob in girls. The attributable proportions of these three factors were 39.8%, 48.2%, and 34.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The self-perceived weight status was different from their actual weight status in children. The interactions between self-perceived weight status and lifestyle behaviors were associated with ow/ob. Health promotion programs that empower children to have appropriate self-awareness of weight status, eating, and physical activity behaviors need to be developed and implemented.

Opportunity of rooftop solar photovoltaic as a cost-effective and environment-friendly power source in megacities

SummaryRooftop solar photovoltaics (RSPV) are critical for megacities to achieve low-carbon emissions. However, a knowledge gap exists in a supply-demand-coupled analysis that considered simultaneously RSPV spatiotemporal patterns and city-accommodation capacities, a pivotal way to address solar PV intermittency issues. Here, we developed an aggregated model for an RSPV + system by linking building-level potential assessment to dynamic optimization of building-related flexible loads. Taking Beijing, the capital city of China, as case in point, we show that annual RSPV potential in Beijing’s Greater-Metropolitan area amounts to 15.4 TWh, all of which could be accommodated environmentally friendly and cost-effectively through the smart operation of electric vehicles and air conditioners equipped with thermal energy storage (TES). Additionally, the RSPV + system would reduce the 8.6 GW transmission capacity otherwise required for increasing electricity demand for 2035 in Beijing. The analysis offers an important reference for sustainable RSPV development in mega-cities in China and other countries globally.

Conceptualising a Social Protection Index Framework for a Megacity in China from the Evidence of Guangzhou

The concept of social protection and its analytical framework have gradually become important tools for analysing the development of social policies globally. However, few studies have examined social protection issues in Chinese megacities. This article uses the social protection index developed by the Asian Development Bank to analyse the development of social protection in Guangzhou, a megacity. Results have shown that between 2013 and 2015, Guangzhou's soaring social protection expenditures and the ongoing improvement of social protection have significantly improved people's standard of living. Despite the narrowing gap in gross domestic product per capita between Guangzhou and developed countries, there is still a huge gap in social protection. In addition, since social policy is heavily biased towards social insurance and social assistance in Chinese megacities, there are far fewer labour market programmes developed for poor people, compared to other developed countries. The authors recommend that Guangzhou increases its social expenditures and focuses on restructuring its social protection system.

Occurrence and modeling of disinfection byproducts in distributed water of a megacity in China: Implications for human health

Disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are initially formed in the process of chlorination in the drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs), then further formed in the distribution system due to the presence of residual chlorine and reactive organic matters. However, in China, DBPs are monitored in the effluent from the DWTPs, but less is known about concentrations of DBPs in tap water since they are usually monitored once per half a year. The smart water service system is establishing real-time monitoring of water indices, although DBPs are an urgent need, they are difficult to monitor in real-time due to their diversity and complicated detection methods. If the correlation between DBP concentration and routinely real-time monitored water quality parameters (e.g., pH value, residual chlorine, ammonia) can be evaluated, the concentration of DBPs can be predicted, which will strengthen the control of tap water safety. This article comprehensively assessed the physicochemical parameters and the occurrence of DBP formation in the tap water with an 18-month investigation in Z city (China). DBP formation in tap water of different seasons and different water sources were compared. Based on the relationship between DBPs and physicochemical parameters, linear prediction and nonlinear prediction models of trihalomethanes (THMs), haloacetonitriles (HANs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs) were established, and the accuracy of these models was verified by measured data. Finally, the toxicity and carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk assessment of DBPs in tap water were analyzed.