This paper aims to improve planar shape prediction accuracy in the rolling process of medium and thick plates. We present a model based on the strip method that addresses limitations in predicting planar shape variations at the head and tail ends of rolled pieces. By analysing the rolling process, we introduce the concept of an imaginary strip longitudinal length difference to represent planar shape characteristics effectively. By analysing the change in metal shape in the rolling deformation zone, the calculation formula for metal volume in the deformation zone is derived. This establishes a relationship between the longitudinal length difference at the rolled piece ends and the metal volume in the deformation zone. The prediction of plane shape difference between the end and the head of medium and medium-thickness plate is realized. The experimental results confirm the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.