Medium-term Outlook Research Articles

The Medium‐Term Outlook

In this section we describe our medium‐term forecast based on the assumptions set out in section 2. AS usual we compare the inclusive, for the next four years, 1986‐9 with the Outturn Over the last four years, 1982‐5 inclusive. It should be borne in mind that the benchmark period 1981‐5 represents an upswing from the lowest point of the 1980‐1 recession.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

This chapter is in two parts. The first part contains discussion of the current situation and a short-term forecast to end-1987. The second part looks at the medium term, beginning with an analysis of probable trends in public expenditure over the next five years. The medium-term outlook for the rest of the world is discussed in chapter II.

Focus: Lower oil prices and the medium‐term outlook

Economic OutlookVolume 9, Issue 5 p. 18-21 Focus: Lower oil prices and the medium-term outlook BOB CORKER, BOB CORKERSearch for more papers by this author BOB CORKER, BOB CORKERSearch for more papers by this author First published: February 1985 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0319.1985.tb00802.xAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Volume9, Issue5February 1985Pages 18-21 RelatedInformation

Chapter I. The Home Economy

This chapter is in two parts. The first part contains discussion of the current situation and a short-term forecast to end-1986. The second part looks at the medium term. It begins with an analysis of probable trends in public expenditure over the next five years. The NIESR econometric model is then used to analyse medium-term prospects for the home economy. The medium-term outlook for the rest of the world is discussed in chapter II.

Supermercantilism as a European strategy: The road to stagnation

On the surface, Europe seems to be climbing out of the dreary post-1973 era, marked by anxiety, doubts, and shocks, to a new “1960s”: economic growth, declining inflation, new consumer gadgets to enjoy. But the medium-term outlook is more disturbing than the euphoria engendered by a temporary economic upswing would suggest. While the general introduction of technologies matured in past decades seems to usher in a new era of creativeness in our economies, the overall economic policy context, expressly designed to foster such creativeness, bears the seeds of profound disequilibria.

The Medium term Outlook

In this Forecast Release we consider the prospects for the economy after the present phase of cyclical recovery. Our central forecast, which we regard as the best medium‐term planning assumption, is that the economy slows down to a sustainable growth rate of around 1% per cent. This is in line with the underlying growth of productive capacity but not sufficient to cure unemployment. We recognise that in practice the economy may be pushed away from the underlying growth trajectory by random shocks, and we look at three major risks surrounding the present forecast: a rise in the savings ratio; a slower world recovery; and a cut in investment. We contend that the most serious of these risks is to investment, since the company sector will face a major increase in its tax bill from 1985‐6 onwards. A growth recession is thus distinctly possible in 1986, which could, for economic and electoral reasons, be the low point of the present cycle.

UK oil revenue: The medium-term outlook

This article examines the significance of the North Sea oil sector to the UK economy in terms of the government tax revenue which it generates. A description is provided both of the tax system by which the UK government actually acquires its income, and of the recent changes in the enabling legislation. Estimates are produced of such revenues for fiscal years up until 1984/85 and their magnitude is assessed in the light of the current state of the UK economy.

The Medium‐Term Outlook

The Medium‐Term Outlook

The Medium Term Outlook

Economic OutlookVolume 3, Issue 5 p. 8-10 The Medium Term Outlook First published: February 1979 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0319.1979.tb00192.xAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Volume3, Issue5February 1979Pages 8-10 RelatedInformation

The medium‐term outlook

The medium‐term outlook