Medium-term Growth Research Articles

Effects of early postnatal growth restriction and subsequent catch-up growth on body composition, insulin sensitivity, and behavior in neonatal rats

Early postnatal growth retardation with subsequent catch-up growth is common in preterm infants. We describe a model of ex utero (postnatal) growth retardation followed by varying degrees of catch-up growth in the neonatal rat. Newborn CD rat pups were randomized to litters of 10 (NN, normal then normal intake) or 16 (R, restricted intake). On day 10, R pups were further randomized to litters of 6 (RC, restricted then catch-up intake), 10 (RN, restricted then normal intake), or 16 (RR, restricted then restricted intake). Body weight, body composition, insulin sensitivity, biochemistry, and learning (passive avoidance test) were assessed. Growth was significantly lower in the R than the NN group. Subsequently, the RC group caught up with the NN group but had higher fat mass; the RN group showed partial catch-up but body composition similar to that of the NN group. Insulin sensitivity did not differ between groups. Learning behavior was significantly better in the NN than the three R groups, and in the RC group than the RR or RN groups. Early postnatal growth retardation is associated with poorer medium-term growth and poorer developmental outcome. Increased catch-up growth is associated with improved developmental outcome but with increased body adiposity, without any significant effect on glucose homeostasis.

Agriculture and Trade

Agriculture is an industry which in the absence of government farm programs; the industry comprises many firms selling virtually standardized products. Agriculture is an Industry which can be understood by applying the demand and supply tools of competitive markets. In recent years, agriculture protection and its impact on developing countries have attracted growing attention. The successful integration into the world economy are home to more than 2 billion people has meant that developing countries have increased their share in global trade in Agriculture sector. Most of those gains have come from increased exports of manufactured products. Integration in agriculture is lagging behind. Most industrial and many developing countries still protect agriculture at high levels. Agriculture protection continues to be among the most important issues in global trade negotiations, with high protection in industrial countries being the main cause of the breakdown of the Cancun Ministerial Meetings in 2003. Reshaping the world’s trade system and reducing barriers to trade could accelerate medium term growth and reduce global poverty. For most developing countries, including those are net food importers, agriculture is the key sector for poverty reduction.

Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidations associated with public debt reduction on medium-term output growth during periods of private debt deleveraging. The analysis covers 107 countries and 79 episodes of public debt reduction driven by discretionary fiscal adjustments during 1980–2012. It shows that expenditure-based, front-loaded fiscal adjustments can dampen growth when there are credit supply restrictions. Instead, fiscal adjustments that are gradual and rely on a mix of revenue and expenditure measures can support output expansion, while reducing public debt. In this context, protecting public investment is critical for medium-term growth, as is the implementation of supply-side, productivity-enhancing reforms.

Enhancing China’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy

China’s current growth model—which has delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty—has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns. Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases. On the other hand, with reforms to accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from its continued reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain its convergence toward the level of high income economies. Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain such a convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies.

基于辐热积法模拟烤烟叶面积与烟叶干物质产量

With respect to planting area and total production,tobacco is one of the world's most important economic crops. Because this crop plant prefers warmth and full sunlight,temperature and solar conditions are widely viewed as the most important factors affecting tobacco quality and yield. Change in leaf area is an important indicator of tobacco growth and yield prediction,and the amount of dry matter accumulating in leaves directly affects yield and indirectly influences quality. In this study,we used a crop growth framework with environmental conditions as driving variables to establish a dynamic mathematical model describing the relationship between temperature,radiation,photosynthetic production,and yield. The two-year study was carried out during 2010 and 2011 in an experimental field using planting conditions optimal for typical tobacco cultivars such as Yuxi and Zhaotong. For the study,we used the tobacco cultivar K326. Based on theoretical photothermal production and experimental data obtained for the effect of temperature and illumination on tobacco leaf growth and dry matter,we established models to explain tobacco leaf area growth and dry matter accumulation applicable to different tobacco-growing areas. We quantified temperature and illumination effects on leaf area growth using the indicators of relative thermal effectiveness and photosynthetically active radiation,and then verified the models by using tobacco leaf area and dry weight simulated data based on temperature and illumination observations from 1989—2011 and independent experimental data. The change in tobacco leaf area by growth period was fitted to a general logistic growth curve using Sigmaplot software after corrections for correlated parameters. Curve fitting for tobacco leaf dry weight data vs. growing degree day( GDD) was performed using SPSS software. Using our model based on thermal effectiveness and photosynthetically active radiation,R2and RMSE between predicted and independent experimental leaf area data according to the 1∶1 straight line were 0. 9634 and 0. 1653 m2per plant,respectively. Corresponding values of 0. 5625 and 2. 1627 m2 per plant were obtained using a specific leaf area( SLA) model,whereas values of 0. 8321 and 0. 9249 m2per plant were calculated for predicted vs. experimental data using a GDD-based model. Compared with analyses of tobacco leaf area carried out using SLA and GDD models,results obtained using the TEP model were more accurate by 93% and 82%, respectively. The RMSE value for leaf dry weight calculated using our model was 27. 1 g / m2. With respect to dry matter accumulation,the degree of fit for simulated and actual observed data was 0. 907 and 0. 982,respectively,with a RE of 24. 5% for the Yuxi tobacco test data over the years of the study. By taking advantage of conventional meteorological observational data,such as that for temperature and sunlight,our model is able to actively predict tobacco leaf area growth and dry matter accumulation. By comprehensively analyzing temperature and light as two key factors affecting crop growth, the model avoids the disadvantages of previous models that inadequately consider temperature and light effects. Our model well explains the crop growth S-curve and is able to relatively accurately predict dry weight during the mature period. This model can consequently provide a theoretical basis for decisions related to tobacco yield prediction,and is thus of great importance for enhancement of economic and ecological benefits of tobacco production in China. Light effects input into this model were based on monthly illumination values,resulting in lowered accuracy of accumulative light effects. Because dry weight data was not adequately used,the analysis of the accumulation process was not fully satisfactory. In addition,it was not possible to accurately simulate effects on dry weight for some years because of the influence of the transplanting period on tobacco growth and dry matter accumulation,leading to large simulation deviations in the medium-term growth period. As a consequence,more test data are needed to enhance accuracy and general applicability of our model.

Enhancing China's Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy

China’s current growth model — which has delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty — has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns. Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases. On the other hand, with reforms to accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from its continued reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain its convergence toward the level of high income economies. Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain such a convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies.

Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidations associated with public debt reduction on medium-term output growth during periods of private debt deleveraging. The analysis covers 107 countries and 79 episodes of public debt reduction driven by discretionary fiscal adjustments during 1980–2012. It shows that expenditure-based, front-loaded fiscal adjustments can dampen growth when there are credit supply restrictions. Instead, fiscal adjustments that are gradual and rely on a mix of revenue and expenditure measures can support output expansion, while reducing public debt. In this context, protecting public investment is critical for medium-term growth, as is the implementation of supply-side, productivity-enhancing reforms.

Opportunity Costs, Productive Arbitrage, and Medium-Term Economic Growth Forecasting

The paper proposes a novel theory-based approach to economic growth prediction. In the economy populated with economically independent decision-makers, the information about their individual preferences, available technologies, and resource constraints is embedded in decision-makers' opportunity costs. By relating opportunity costs over available alternatives to individual's choices, it is possible to make inference about agent's aggregate behavior in the macroeconomy. Conceptually, the information about the measurable structure of the economy can be used to predict aggregate economic activity, and, hence, economic growth. The paper develops practical procedures for measuring opportunity costs of goods produced and goods demanded. It is theoretically shown that the difference between the two, or the opportunity cost differential, is the primary cause for a productive arbitrage -- an expansion of production, and hence, economic growth. An applied model of medium-term economic growth is developed using input-output and econometric techniques. It is shown that the opportunity costs differentials computed from mid-2000s and early-2000s input-output tables explain more than three-quarters of the variation of the growth rates for the ten-year period for a cross-section of 40 nations. In contrast, the applied model suggests that the sovereign debt has neither positive nor negative effects on midterm economic growth rates.

Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy

Since the second half of 2011, after a period of prolonged low growth, Italy has found itself at the center of a severe economic crisis. Concerns about the sustainability of its debt burden, along with gloomy growth prospects, have pushed up the cost of government borrowing, exacerbating current economic conditions. At the moment Italy is facing two mounting economic challenges: (i) achieve a rapid fiscal consolidation to restore financial market confidence; (ii) implement structural reforms to strengthen medium-term growth prospects. Using the European Commission's model QUEST III with R&D, adapted to Italy, we quantify the potential effects of a set of interventions inspired to the reform packages currently being undertaken or under discussion and consider different levels of policy effort. Results show that reforms are likely to bring about sizable gains in output, consumption, employment and net foreign assets position and that most of these gains derive from labor market reforms. However, the fiscal austerity plan is likely to severely mitigate the positive effects of the interventions, especially during the earlier phases of the reform process. Most of these losses accrue to liquidity-constraint households who would experience a drop in consumption.

TEAM–a Marie Curie ITN on Infrastructure Management

Transport demand both for passengers and freight continues to grow strongly across Europe. To meet economic growth targets and facilitate further economic integration of the Member States, European transportation needs to cater for a continuing medium term growth in demand. However transport growth using the technologies of today is unsustainable as the tools do not yet exist to allow optimal management of bridge and road portfolios. Recent technical advances offer the potential to significantly change the way that our infrastructure is managed. New technologies and processes are being developed that will deliver more efficient asset management systems. In the past decade there have been significant advances in sensor and processing technologies, leading to tools which are cheap, reliable and offer the potential for new innovative ways to manage infrastructure. TEAM (Training in European Asset Management) is an FP7 Marie Curie Initial Training Network that seeks to exploit the benefits of these new technologies. The TEAM network consists of 14 PhD researchers working in 7 partner institutes across Europe to develop new tools and processes that will be used by managers to maintain their infrastructural assets in an efficient manner. The project consortium involves university and industry partners, ensuring that the results produced are of interest to engineering practice. New approaches are developed for pavements and bridges and are providing new sources of asset health data; this is combined with new models and algorithms and will produce a step change improvement in condition and safety assessments. Detailed understanding of the processes will allow owners to efficiently manage a portfolio of assets. This will extend safe working lives and reduce costs without compromising safety.

Structural Reforms and the Potential Effects on the Italian Economy

Since the second half of 2011, after a period of prolonged low growth, Italy has found itself at the center of a severe economic crisis. Concerns about the sustainability of its debt burden, along with gloomy growth prospects, have pushed up the cost of government borrowing, exacerbating current economic conditions. At the moment Italy is facing two mounting economic challenges: (i) achieve a rapid fiscal consolidation to restore financial market confidence; (ii) implement structural reforms to strengthen medium-term growth prospects. Using the European Commission's model QUEST III with R&D, adapted to Italy, we quantify the potential effects of a set of interventions inspired to the reform packages currently being undertaken or under discussion and consider different levels of policy effort. Results show that reforms are likely to bring about sizable gains in output, consumption, employment and net foreign assets position and that most of these gains derive from labor market reforms. However, the fiscal austerity plan is likely to severely mitigate the positive effects of the interventions, especially during the earlier phases of the reform process. Most of these losses accrue to liquidity-constraint households who would experience a drop in consumption.

Integrated In-Situ Simulation Using Redirected Faculty Educational Time to Minimize Costs

Simulation is an effective teaching tool, but many hospitals do not possess the space or finances to support traditional simulation centers. Our objective is to describe the feasibility of an in situ simulation program model that uses minimal permanent space and "redirected" cost-neutral faculty educational time to address these issues. Two pediatric simulators and audiovisual equipment were purchased. Course faculty were derived from a group of physicians and nurses with a percentage work assignment apportioned to education. A portion of this was subsequently redirected toward simulation. After 2 years of operation, faculty were surveyed regarding time devoted to the program. Program growth and quality statistics were examined descriptively. The program supported 786 learner encounters in 166 sessions over 2 years. Simulation hours per month increased over sixfold during that period (P < 0.001). Program initiation cost was $128920.89, with subsequent yearly costs of $11,695. Mean program ratings ranged between 4.5/5 for Crisis Resource Management and 4.4/5 for communication skills training. Resident (2.6 h/y increase, P value <0.001) and nursing (2.2 h/y increase, P < 0.001) simulation hours increased significantly. Faculty involvement averaged between 3% and 32% of total work hours. This report demonstrates the feasibility of implementing an in situ simulation program using minimal permanent institutional space and cost-neutral redirected faculty time. This type of programmatic structure is conducive to short- and medium-term growth, is well received by participants, and allows for substantial cost savings. Future work will be needed to determine what growth limitations are inherent in this staffing and structural model.

Does software piracy affect economic growth? Evidence across countries

We examine the effect of software piracy on medium term growth using cross-country data over 2000–2007. While the empirical literature has focused on identifying the causes of software piracy, our contribution is to examine its effects. Our findings suggest that software piracy reduces economic growth over the medium term but the relationship is non-linear – the rate of decrease in economic growth diminishes with piracy increase. This growth-reducing effect is especially pronounced in low income countries. Policy implications are discussed.

Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe

This paper assesses the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use cross-country growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

The road to recovery: Fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation, and potential risks ahead

The worst of the global financial crisis is behind us, but the trajectory to recovery varies widely across economies. Employing a dynamic structural multi-country model with a financial accelerator, this paper studies the roles of two important policy actions in economic recovery: fiscal stimulus and financial sector rehabilitation. The main finding is that while both factors contribute to economic recovery, the former is likely to be less effective from a medium-term perspective and may generate some negative side effects. This suggests that policy priority should be on continued financial sector rehabilitation, particularly in advanced economies. Moreover, international policy co-ordination is beneficial as it can generate spill-over effects to regional economies. We also study a potential risk to economic recovery down the road: an over-estimation of the post-crisis potential output by the monetary authorities in advanced economies. It is found that this may lead to an overly accommodative monetary policy stance, which could lead to a resurgence in inflation and hence will darken the medium-term growth prospects of the world economy.

Republic of Croatia: 2011 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Croatia

In this study, the economic stability of Croatia is overviewed after the global crisis. The reforms outlined in the government’s economic recovery program (ERP) are in progress. Judicial reforms are instituted to strengthen bankruptcy procedures for companies. To improve the medium-term growth prospects of the economy, there is a need to tackle the structural rigidities. Executive Directors agreed that monetary policy should aim at gradually building up reserves in order to increase Croatia’s resilience to external vulnerabilities, while exercising caution toward shifts

DENDROECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF Ocotea pulchella AND Nectandra maegapotamica ON TWO SITES NEAR SANTA MARIA, RIO GRANDE DO SUL (BRAZIL)

AbstractA dendroecological analysis of Ocotea pulchella (n=5) and Nectandra megapotamica (n=2) was conducted on two sites near Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil). Growth data were obtained by tree-ring analysis of stem disks at breast height (1,3 m). Radial increment was measured on four perpendicular radii using the 'LINTAB' measuring device. Mean growth sequences were standardised to highlight short-term variation. Air temperature, precipitation and compound climatic quantities like evapotranspiration and water balance were used to find indications about the climate-growth relationship. Variation of wood increment and climatic variation was compared by using sensitivity and correlation analysis. Some factors as regional climate (seasonality) in general, wood structure of the species and cross-dating of individual radii indicate that annual growth banding is likely. Due to a lacking correspondence between water balance and ring width indexes, water stress does not seem to be the synchronising factor of radial increment. In view of the measured periodical radial increments, it becomes evident that for Ocotea goal-diameters of 50-60 cm at breast height cannot be obtained in a short time without thinning. No medium-term growth release was found for both species.Keywords: Dendroecology; annual rings; water balance; Ocotea pulchella; Nectandra megapotamica. ResumoAnálise dendroecológica de Ocotea pulchella e Nectandra megapotamica em dois sítios próximos a Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul/Brasil. A análise dendroecológica de Ocotea pulchella (n = 5) e Nectandra megapotamica (n = 2) foi realizada em dois sítios próximos ao município de Santa Maria, RS/Brasil. Os dados de crescimento das 2 espécies foram obtidos através da análise dos anéis de crescimento de amostras do lenho da altura do DAP (1,30 m). Os incrementos radiais foram mensurados em 4 orientações radiais e perpendiculares, utilizando a mesa de mensuração 'LINTAB'. O histórico do crescimento médio em diâmetro do tronco das árvores foi estandardizado para a análise da variação de curto prazo. A temperatura do ar, precipitação e outros componentes climáticos (ex.: evapotranspiração, balanço de água) foram utilizados para analisar as correlações existentes com o crescimento das árvores. As variações do incremento radial e das variações climáticas foram comparadas utilizando-se a análise de sensitividade e de correlação. Alguns fatores climáticos sazonais regionais, a estrutura do lenho das espécies e a datação cruzada dos raios das amostras dos lenhos comprovam que os anéis de crescimento demarcam incrementos anuais. Devido à inexistência de relação entre o balanço de água e os índices de largura dos anéis de crescimento nas árvores das 2 espécies, o estresse hídrico não parece desempenhar um fator crítico de sincronização dos incrementos radiais do tronco.Palavras-chave: Dendroecologia; anéis de crescimento anuais; balanço de água; Ocotea pulchella; Nectandra megapotamica.

How useful is growth literature for policies in the developing countries?

Growth literature has focused mainly on the long-term growth outcomes, but policy makers of the developing economies need rapid improvements in the short- to medium-term growth rates. In this article, we argue that this widening gap can be reduced by distinguishing between the short- to medium-term growth effects of policies from their long-run growth effects. With data from Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, we show that an extended Solow (1956) model can narrow this gap. We find that the short to medium term growth effects of an increase in the investment ratio are quite significant and persist for up to 10 years.

Republic of Palau: 2010 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; a Public Information Notice; and a Statement by the Executive Director of the Republic of Palau on the Executive Board Discussion.

The key findings of the Republic of Palau’s 2010 Article IV Consultation shows that the single most important issue in Palau remains fiscal policy, including its effect on medium-term growth, as fiscal consolidation proceeds. The global financial crisis followed on the heels of a massive terms-of-trade shock, leading to a sharp curtailment of foreign direct investment and private credit. Tourism tumbled following an airline bankruptcy, and construction activity fell as major infrastructure projects reached completion.

Japan’s Quest for Growth: Exploring the Role of Capital and Innovation

As labor input in Japan shrinks with population aging, capital accumulation and productivity gains will drive growth over the medium-term. At the same time, a changing global landscape calls for a shift in export-oriented investment toward new markets and a new generation of products, as well as increased investment by domestically-oriented firms. What policies could be adopted to help firms adjust to the imperatives of the post-crisis global economy and boost medium-term growth? Using disaggregated data, this paper investigates the determinants of investment and R&D spending by Japanese firms. The results suggest that policies could usefully focus on four areas. First, raising the return on investment, including through reforms to the tax code. Second, decreasing uncertainty through improved risk management by firms and by bolstering the business climate. Third, improving SME access to finance, notably by encouraging venture capital investment in innovative areas and more risk-based lending. And fourth, reducing excess leverage and supporting corporate restructuring to enable new investments to flourish.