Medium-term Expenditure Framework Research Articles

Testing the Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue: Evidence From GCC Countries

The paper examines the direction of causality between total government expenditure and revenue in oil-dependent GCC countries by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework, and by calculating a variance decomposition analysis. In addition, it presents impulse responses to shed light on the dynamic relation of expenditure to a revenue shock. The results confirm expectations that government spending follows oil revenue, suggesting a pro-cyclical expenditure policy to variations in oil revenue. To make budget expenditure less driven by revenue availability, the authorities could resort to a medium-term expenditure framework, so that expenditures can be planned and insulated from volatile short-term revenue availability.

Foreign direct investment flows and fiscal discipline in South Africa

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal policy on foreign direct investment (PDI) in South Africa during the past 30 years. Casual empirical analysis reveals a definite linkage between FDI flows and variables such as the deficit/GDP ratio, representing fiscal discipline, and the tax burden on foreign investors. This relationship is substantiated by econometric analysis. Given the economy's large degree of dependence on foreign capital, the government may contribute to an investor-friendly environment by adjusting fiscal policy. Some inroads have been made in this regard with the government's Medium-term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), which projects a policy of strict fiscal discipline in years to come. However, the tax burden is still relatively high and, due to its impact on foreign direct capital flows, requires urgent attention.