Medium Risk Areas Research Articles

Experience of GIS Technology Application in the Surveillance of Tick-Borne Infections

ObjectiveThe main aim of this work is to estimate the projected risks based on the incidence rate of natural foci infections and to expand the list of criteria for the characterization of natural foci of tick-borne infections.IntroductionThe epidemiological situation of natural foci of tick-borne infections (TBI) in Ukraine, as well as globally, is characterized by significant activation of processes due to global climate change, growing human-induced factor and shortcomings in the organization and running of epidemiological surveillance [1]. For the Western region of Ukraine, among all tick-borne zoonoses the most important are tick-borne viral encephalitis (TBVE), Lyme disease (LD), human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA) and some others [2-4]. Taking into account the increased incidence rate for these infections, we have developed baseline criteria (indicators of natural contamination of the main carriers and levels of the serum layer among the population in relation to the TBI pathogens in the endemic areas) to identify areas with different risk of contamination through GIS-technologies [5].MethodsEpi Info 7.1.1.14 software was used to analyze patient questionnaires with tick-borne infections (TBI) for 2010-2015. Prevalence maps of vector-borne infections were created by means of GIS technology using the QGIS 2.0.1. software to assess the risks of infection. Maps demonstrating the distribution of TBVE, LD and HGA were also developed based on contamination risk assessment criteria.ResultsRetrospective epidemiological analysis of incidence rates for TBVE, LD and HGA was conducted based on laboratory tests that were performed in the laboratory of vector-borne viral infections of the State Institution Lviv Research Institute of Epidemiology and Hygiene of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. A direct correlation between the infection of I. ricinus, B. burgdorferi and LB (P <0.05) and infections of I. ricinus ticks, anaplasma and incidence of HGA (P <0.05) was established. However, this connection has not been confirmed for indicators with TBE.Data was obtained during the assessment of possible risks of tick-borne infections. For TBVE, the indicator of predicted risks based on the basic criteria was 60.3%, taking into account the cases of the disease. This was based on indicators of natural infection of the main carriers and the level of the serum layer among the population on the TBI activators in the endemic areas. The data obtained can be explained by the low level of morbidity and the detection of TBVE cases. The predicted risk for LD according to these criteria is 88.9%, due to the high level of clinical and laboratory diagnosis.As for the HGA, the predicted risk indicator reaches 66.7% due to the fact that the study of human anaplasmosis in Ukraine is at the initial level (the incidence rate and incidence are not included in the official reporting system).Taking into account the results obtained, it is advisable to supplement the list of criteria for determining the degree of activity of natural foci of tick-borne infections and the identification of areas with high risk of morbidity. These calculations were made by grouping statistical data (indicators) [5]. The reliability of the difference between the same indicators for individual zones was 95% (Table 1).ConclusionsTick-borne zoonoses are a serious problem for the public health system of the Western region of Ukraine. Extending the list of criteria for the characterization of natural foci of tick-borne infections will improve epidemiological surveillance and focus on key measures in high and medium-risk areas for the rational use of funds.

京津冀城市群土地利用生态风险的时空变化分析

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 京津冀城市群土地利用生态风险的时空变化分析 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201801300246 作者: 作者单位: 天津城建大学,天津城建大学,天津城建大学,天津城建大学,天津城建大学,天津城建大学,天津城建大学 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划课题（2016YFC0503001） Spatiotemporal analysis of the dynamic changes in land use ecological risks in the urban agglomeration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei vegion Author: Affiliation: Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin Chengjian University Fund Project: The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:以京津冀城市群为研究区，基于1984、1990、2000、2005、2010和2015年土地利用数据，利用斑块密度、蔓延度和土地利用类型的主观权重构建土地利用生态风险指数，从而揭示京津冀城市群地区6个时间节点的土地利用生态风险空间分布特征。土地利用生态风险划分为5个等级：低风险区、较低风险区、中等风险区、较高风险区和高风险区，将较高风险区和高风险区定义为综合高风险区，然后计算其重心转移轨迹，从而探究土地利用生态综合高风险区的空间转移动态变化规律。结果表明在研究时段内：（1）研究区土地利用生态风险的总体分布规律为城市中心城区周边的土地利用生态风险逐渐加剧，非城市地区低于城市地区，且高风险区、较高风险区的面积呈增加趋势。（2）京津冀城市群13个地级市综合高风险区变化各不相同：北京市、天津市、唐山市和廊坊市的综合高风险区呈现出增加的趋势；承德市、张家口市、保定市、石家庄市、秦皇岛市、邯郸市和邢台市的综合高风险呈现出降低的趋势；而沧州市和衡水市几乎不变。（3）综合高风险区的重心转移方向基本分为三类：朝首都方向、朝东部海洋方向和自身发展方向，且重心转移方向与城市的规划、治理及发展方向联系密切。 Abstract:In this study, the patch density, contagion degree and subjective weight of land use type were combined to construct an ecological risk index of land use for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei vegion based on the land use data from 1984, 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. The results revealed the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei spatial distribution characteristics of land use ecological risks for six nodes of urban agglomeration. Land use ecological risks were divided into five levels: low risk area, low medium risk area, medium risk area, medium high risk area, and high risk area. The medium high and high risk areas were defined as the comprehensive high risk areas, and then their centers of gravity were calculated. Transfer trajectories were used to explore the dynamic changes in spatial transfer dynamics for high risk land use. The following results were found for the study period. (1) Based on the overall distribution pattern of ecological risks of land use in the study area, the ecological risks from land use around the urban center area have gradually intensified, non-urban areas are lower than the urban areas, and high risk and medium high risk areas are increasing in size. (2) The comprehensive high risk areas in the cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei vegion are subject to various changes, with Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, and Langfang showing an increasing trend, Chengde, Zhangjiakou, Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Qinhuangdao, Handan, and Xingtai showing a decreasing trend, and Cangzhou and Hengshui remaining almost unchanged. (3)The shifting focus of comprehensive high risk areas can be generally divided into three categories: the direction of capital, direction of the eastern sea and its development direction, and shifting direction of the center of gravity closely related to the planning, governance, and development direction of the city. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Zonation of Shigellosis and its Relationship With Climatic Factors, Case Study: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province Between 2011 and 2014

Background and aims: Shigellosis or bacillary dysentery is an infectious disease transmitted through water and food. It is a type of infectious colitis caused by Shigella bacteria. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence and the spatial distribution of shigellosis and its relationship with climatic factors in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. Methods: In this study, population of infected people to shigellosis in the province during 2011 to 2014 obtained from reliable sources and analyzed. The statistics were standardized for every city in the event of illness per hundred thousand people. The relationships between incidence of the disease and the climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and humidity) were investigated by Pearson correlation coefficient after generation of zonation map using GIS and analysis of the concentration centers. Results: According to the results, Koohrang, Lordegan and Ardal cities are classified as high risk areas with an incidence more than 400000 people. Borujen and Faarsan cities are medium risk areas with an incidence less than 250 per 100000, and Shahr-e-kord city with an incidence less than 100 per 100000 people is considered a low risk area. The incidence grows with increase in the temperature. Increase in the precipitation and humidity decreases incidence of the disease. Concentration and prevalence of shigellosis mostly occur in west of the province, because this area is located in the neighborhood of Khuzestan province, and also due to nomadic residence of Bakhtiari nomads in this part during summer and their unhealthy lifestyle, limited access to treated water and especially consumption of untreated surface water. The higher concentration of nomadic residence and higher contamination of water increase incidence of waterborne diseases. The frequency increase of the disease in warm seasons can be due to prevalence of Shigella dysentery in the region. Conclusion: Based on the results, significant positive correlations exist between the surface water consumption, the temperature increase, the number of pisciculture centers in the area and incidence of the disease. Significant negative correlations are also observed between the rainfall, humidity and incidence of the disease.

Evolvement rules of basin flood risk under low-carbon mode. Part II: risk assessment of flood disaster under different land use patterns in the Haihe basin.

Land use pattern contains a large amount of information about the flood hazard-formative environments, which is the most sensitive factor in hazard-formative environments. In this paper, based on the land use pattern in 2008 (the base year) and in 2020 (the planning year), the comparative analysis of flood disaster risk changes in Haihe basin were studied by the spatial analysis function of ARCGIS and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results showed the flood disaster risk in Haihe basin had an obvious zonality in the space, among which low risk was located in the northwest regions, and high risk was located in the southeast regions. Flood disaster risk in planning year was lower than in the base year. The risk value of 2020 in the mountain decreases from 0.445 to 0.430, while the risk value of the plain increases from 0.562 to 0.564. For the plain, high-risk area in 2020 is increased by 13.2%, which is the biggest change in risk grades. For the mountain, low-risk area and low risk area in 2020 are increased, and the low-risk area is the biggest increase, up to 37.7%. Meanwhile, high-risk area, high risk area, and medium risk area all tend to decrease, and the high-risk area is the biggest decrease, up to 32.6%. Overall, land use planning pattern under low-carbon mode is conducive to the Haihe basin flood control. The research can provide scientific foundations for basin land use planning and flood disaster risk management.

Flood risk assessment and mapping based on a modified multi-parameter flood hazard index model in the Guanzhong Urban Area, China

The aim of this study is to promote appropriate land development policies and to improve operations of flood risk in urban areas. This study first illustrated a multi-parameter flood hazard index (FHI) model for assessing potential flood risk areas in the Guanzhong Urban Area (GUA), a large-scale urban area in northwestern China. The FHI model consisted of the following seven parameters: rainfall intensity, flow accumulation, distance from the river network, elevation, land use, surface slope, and geology. The parameter weights were assigned using an analytical hierarchy process and the sum weight of the first three parameters accounted for 71.21% of the total weight and had significant influence on flooding. By combining with population factor, the FHI model was modified to estimate the flood control area in the GUA. The spatial distribution of the flood risk was obviously different in the flood hazard area and flood control area. The very low risk and medium risk area in the flood control area increased by 11.19% and reduced by 9.03% compared to flood hazard area, but there were no obvious differences in other levels of risk areas. The flood control assessment indicated that very high flood risk areas were principally concentrated along river banks (the Weihe River and its tributaries) and in the middle of the Guanzhong Plain. Land use and population distribution are related to flooding. Especially, forestland was located in 84.48% of the very low risk area, while low risk areas were mainly located in 91.49% of high population dispersion area.

The assessment of traffic accident risk based on grey relational analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

The traffic accident risk includes three aspects, traffic accident probability, traffic accident severity, and traffic accident trend respectively. In this paper, nine indicators are selected to evaluate the traffic accident risk. The grey relational analysis method was used to determine the weights, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to calculate the risk. These methods were applied to assess the comprehensive risk of traffic accident in 31 provinces in China. The results show that the average value of traffic accident risk is 55.17. Nine provinces which are located in the northwest area and southeast area belong to the high-risk level. The medium-risk areas are widely distributed in the central, northeast, and southwest regions. The low-risk areas are Jilin, Neimenggu, Guizhou, and Beijing. The results have great significance for the measurement and management of regional traffic accident risk.

Logistic regression model for detecting radon prone areas in Ireland

A new high spatial resolution radon risk map of Ireland has been developed, based on a combination of indoor radon measurements (n=31,910) and relevant geological information (i.e. Bedrock Geology, Quaternary Geology, soil permeability and aquifer type). Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of having an indoor radon concentration above the national reference level of 200Bqm−3 in Ireland. The four geological datasets evaluated were found to be statistically significant, and, based on combinations of these four variables, the predicted probabilities ranged from 0.57% to 75.5%. Results show that the Republic of Ireland may be divided in three main radon risk categories: High (HR), Medium (MR) and Low (LR). The probability of having an indoor radon concentration above 200Bqm−3 in each area was found to be 19%, 8% and 3%; respectively.In the Republic of Ireland, the population affected by radon concentrations above 200Bqm−3 is estimated at ca. 460k (about 10% of the total population). Of these, 57% (265k), 35% (160k) and 8% (35k) are in High, Medium and Low Risk Areas, respectively. Our results provide a high spatial resolution utility which permit customised radon-awareness information to be targeted at specific geographic areas.

Flood risk and vulnerability mapping of settlements within upper and lower Niger river basin, Nigeria

The frequency and intensity of flood disasters have become serious issues in the national development process of Nigeria as flood disasters have caused serious environmental damages, loss of human lives and other heavy economic losses. The starting point of concrete flood disaster mitigation efforts is to identify the areas with higher risk levels and fashion out appropriate preventive and response mechanisms. This research paper explored the potentials of Geographic Information System (GIS) in data capture, processing and analysis in identifying flood-prone areas for the purpose of planning for disaster mitigation and preparedness, using both upper and lower Niger River basin as units of analysis. This work uses a number of physical, demographic and landuse data which were obtained from Forestry Management Evaluation and Coordination Unit and were entered and use to develop a flood risk information system. Results were illustrated graphically and showed that generally, areas with height less than 180m are categorized high risk areas; areas with height between 180.1 and 500m were categorized as medium or moderate risk areas while areas above 500m are designated as low risk areas. At the end of the study, maps of flood vulnerable areas in the river basin was generated with a view to assisting decision makers on the menace posed by the disaster.Key Words: Flood, Risk, Vulnerability, Geographical Information System (GIS), River Basin

Geo Spatial Assessment of Flood Hazard in Jhang District, Pakistan

Floods are one of the leading natural disasters in Pakistan. In recent decades the frequency and intensity of floods has increased due to human and environmental factors. In this work an attempt was made to examine the flood vulnerable areas of Jhang district and its impact on land cover changes by using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Image Analysis and different indices like NDVI, NDWI were applied on satellite images for identification of flood prone areas and vegetation conditions in study area. Flood prone areas were further classified into low, medium and high risk areas according to flood hazard. The results indicate that, Jhang covers total area of 6357 km2 out of which flood affected area is 530 km2. During the flood of 2010 water area expanded approximately 714 km2 while a decline was observed in agricultural lands which have lost139 km2 area under vegetation

A statistical model for dynamic safety risk control on construction sites

Abstract Existing deterministic approaches to real-time tracking of construction workers for safety purposes provide alerts for specific incidents that are isolated in space and time, once they have occurred. In contrast, this paper presents a statistical model that can support a more dynamic form of safety control, by utilizing real-time tracking data to control the exposure of construction workers to safety risks that accumulate and change over time. The model addresses risks that are the result of concurrent activities on the construction site, and provides proactive alerts in case of an increasing risk exposure for a worker or crew. Statistical zones that are related to medium risk areas on the site are defined in the model. A number of statistical rules are then used to identify deviations from a predefined maximum allowable risk exposure for workers located in the statistical zones. The model can thus prevent potential accidents from occurring, without unnecessarily affecting the efficiency of the activities carried out on site. Laboratory tests of the model were carried out, using a Wi-Fi-based RTLS. The results of the tests demonstrate that the model can identify an excessive exposure to risk for workers, support an initial analysis of the causes for the excessive risk exposure, and compensate for errors in the RTLS measurements.

Preliminary Study of Differences Between Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in Isfahan and its’ Rural Provinces

Background:: Previous publications categorized Isfahan as a high-risk area with regard to the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS). Objectives:: Till to date, there have been no studies differentiating between the prevalence of MS in Isfahan and its rural provinces. Patients and Methods:: A retrospective study of 4,209 patients with MS was conducted and recorded by the deputy of health at the Isfahan university of medical sciences in 2013. Demographic variables and place of birth were recorded in Excel. Descriptive and comparative analyses were conducted using SPSS. Results:: For Isfahan and its rural provinces, the calculated prevalence of MS could be referred as P = 84.14. The calculated prevalence of MS for Isfahan was as P = 27.61. It seems that the highest MS populations are located in the Isfahan rural southwest provinces. The place of birth in 52% was Isfahan. The number of women (78%) was higher than that of men (22%), and 90% of the population was young (range: 20 - 50 years old). Conclusions:: The outcome of this preliminary study suggested that Isfahan and its rural provinces might be categorized as two distinct regions for epidemiology of MS. Medium-risk areas included Isfahan, and high-risk areas included the Isfahan rural southwest provinces. Further advanced studies in this direction are recommended.

PREVALENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS AMONG HEALTHCARE WORKERS IN CAIRO UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) presents globally as a significant health problem and health care workers (HCW) are at increased risk of contracting TB infection. There is no diagnostic gold standard for latent TB infection (LTBI). Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) is the traditional testing method for diagnosing LTBI, but it has a known high rate of false positive with subsequent needless loss of time, efforts, loss of productivity and side effects. Quantiferon test (QFT) has been developed as a potential replacement for the TST. Aim of work: To assess the prevalence of TB among health care workers in high, medium and low risk areas for TB infection at Cairo University Hospitals (CUH) and to validate the use of Quantiferon as a screening test for TB compared to tuberculin test. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study with convenient sample of 200 HCWs employed in Cairo University Hospitals and agreed to participate was performed. Information on gender, age, workplace, job title, BCG vaccination and history of both TB and TST were collected using a questionnaire. All participants were subjected to clinical examination, TST, Quantiferon test and chest X-ray. Results: The participants were 70 males and 130 females with mean age + SD (34.7 ± 12.6years). TST was positive in 86 cases (43%) and the QFT results were positive in 38 cases (19%). There was average agreement between the two tests (76%, к = 0.474), concordance between two tests improved from (к = 0.474) at cut-off point 10 mm to (к = 0.492) at cut-off point 15 mm. LTBI was most common principally among nurses, workers in Chest Department, Internal Medicine Department and technicians in bacteriology lab with highest mean diameter of induration for the studied population in the chest department (16.6mm). According to the nature of work the laboratory technicians had the highest mean diameter of induration (16.58mm). Thirty-four (17%) of the studied population had abnormal chest radiographs suspected of TB. Occupational exposure in high risk area and working duration >10 years were statistically significant risk factors for both QFT & TST, while age and nature of work were not statistically significant risk factors for both tests using multivariable logistic regression. Conclusion and Recommendations: There is risk of tuberculosis transmission among HCWs at Cairo University Hospitals, principally among nurses, workers in Chest Department, Internal Medicine Department and technicians in bacteriology lab. Large scale of screening involving all University hospitals staff must be performed.We recommend screening of HCWs using TST then confirming positive cases by Quantiferon and following them. Disease probability in HCWs tested positive by serial testing should be further assessed by chest radiograph. Further reinforcement of the infection control policy is a must and treatment regimen for latent TB infection has to be followed.

Ground movement risk in ‘Las Batuecas-Sierra de Francia’ and ‘Quilamas’ nature parks (central system, Salamanca, Spain)

Ground movements constitute active processes that modify the disposition and morphology of the earth's surface. This work establishes a cartography procedure to obtain a ground movement risk map at a 1:50,000 scale. Such a map would be useful for establishing mitigation measures for land use planning and management in natural spaces, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). A number of steps are taken to produce the map in GIS. First, a susceptibility map is created by considering passive or conditioning factors, which depend on the nature, structure and morphology of the ground. Second, a hazard map is created by considering active or trigger factors, which cause instabilities within hillsides and determine the magnitude and speed of their movements. Finally, the ground movements risk map is obtained by combining the susceptibility and hazard maps with risk and vulnerability map (degree of potential damage) and risk exposure map (estimate of damage, human casualty and economic loss). The resulting ground movements risk map shows very high risk at the foot of escarpments and abrupt reliefs where urban areas, fractures and/or roads are present. High risk prevails in the geomorphologic domains of fluvial incisions, where the slopes are high, as well as in areas with escarped hillsides. Medium-risk areas are distributed around the marked reliefs, forming zones of filling and slightly flat surfaces. Low-risk areas appear in topographically flat areas, since they are domains of terraces, pediments or degraded surfaces. Very scattered and less-extended areas present very low risk.

Study on Power Transformer Fault Risk Assessment Method

Based on more than three hundred transformer accidents and some statistics data related, this paper manages to draw a standard classification table of transformer failure. 5 degrees of failure possibilities are classified in the paper: extremely high, high, general, low, extremely low. Besides, 4 major factors that affects risk of transformer failure severity are studied: direct lossmonitoring levelmaintenance cost and maintenance period. Also, failure severity of each risk source are classified into 5 levels: not serious, mild, ordinary, less serious, and serious, and Extensional Analytic Hierarchy Process (EAHP) and Extensional Project Appraisal Methods are used to evaluate the severity of risk of transformer failures. Last but not least, risk matrix has been built and divided into four parts: high risk area, critical risk area, medium risk area and low risk area. On that top, some maintenance strategies are proposed accordingly.

Modelling the spatial concentrations of bird migration to assess conflicts with wind turbines

Bird migration and wind energy production exploit a similar airspace. There is a well-founded claim that conservation should aim at facilitating both activities. Negative effects can be mitigated either by avoiding a spatial concurrence or by accounting for the temporal course of migration and stopping wind turbines during peak flight activities. In this study we promote a new methodological approach to reduce potential conflicts in the planning as well as during the operation phase of a wind energy project. The basis is a new spatially explicit model for broad front migration. It allows to quantify the collision risk with respect to topography. We simulated migration of non-soaring birds across Switzerland. Model parameters were tuned to achieve results in accordance with current expert knowledge based on many years of visual observations and radar measurements. The resulting maps were used to define areas with different collision risks. For medium and high risk areas, we propose a permanent monitoring system, which is able to shut down the local turbines during peak migration. We evaluated the impact of such a shutdown regime in five specific sites with quantitative radar data for at least one migration season. The model presented here is a simple preliminary, but robust, approach. The main weakness of the model is the use of large-scale rather than local wind conditions. Within the Alps, local wind fields can differ considerably from the general pattern, and accordingly also the distribution of flight directions. We hope to provide a basis for similar models in other geographic areas. In addition, we call for the use of large scale monitoring data, as hopefully will soon be available from weather radar networks, to validate any kind of spatially explicit migration models.

河北太行山区土地利用变化及其景观生态风险分析

本文以河北太行山区为研究区，定量研究了1990年、2000年和2008年该区土地利用变化情况，并从土地利用变化和景观结构角度构建景观生态风险评价模型，定量分析了该区景观生态风险的时空动态变化特征。结果表明：18年间，河北太行山区土地利用结构变化明显，各地类之间的转化复杂、频繁，土地利用结构的变化导致景观生态风险指数发生显著的时空差异。研究区景观生态风险总体呈下降趋势，总的分布规律是从西部亚高山区到东部平原区依次升高，呈明显的条带状分布。较低和低生态风险区分布在研究区西部的亚高山和中山区，中生态风险区分布在山区和平原的过渡地区，城乡交错带和湖泊水库区生态风险较高，在黄壁庄水库和沙河市的中东部生态风险最高。应加强中级以上景观生态风险区域的生态保护与建设，以实现河北太行山区的生态环境与社会经济的可持续发展。 Land use change and landscape ecological risk analysis serve as the basis for realizing regional land ecological security and sustainable development. In this paper, Taihang Mountain in Hebei Province was chosen as the study area. GIS spatial analysis was employed to make the layer algebra operation of the interpretation data of the TM remote sensing images in 1990, 2000 and 2008, quantitatively study the change of land use and the transformation of land use type in this region. Additionally, the ecological security assessment model comprising a landscape disturbance index and a land use sensitivity was established by the respect of land use change and landscape structure to quantitatively analyze spatial-temporal variation character of landscape ecological risk. Results showed that the change of land use and the transformation of land use type showed comparatively complex among the 18 years. What’s more, the main types of transformations of land use are focused among farm land, woodland and grassland. Besides, obvious spatial- temporal difference was found in the distribution of ecological risk associated with the intensity and pattern of land use change. As a whole, the landscape ecological risk showed a downward trend in the past 18 years, with the main principle that distribution increased successively from the western high mountains to the eastern plains, in the obvious zonal structure. Low and lower risk areas distributed mainly in the western mountainous areas; Medium risk areas was mainly in the mountain-plain-transition-belt; The higher and highest risk areas distributed in the rural-urban ecotone, land around lakes and reservoirs; The Huangbizhuang reservoir and the east-central part of Shahe City were highest. To promote sustainable development of the ecological environment and the social economy, ecological protection and construction should be strengthened in the areas with intermediate ecological risk in the Taihang Mountains in Hebei Province.

环泉州湾地区建设用地地质灾害危险性评价

本文对泉州湾地区建设用地的地质条件进行分析，确定了泉州市环泉州湾地区建设用地主要存在的潜在地质灾害为地震、崩塌、滑坡和危岩体。根据层次分析理论，建立地质灾害危险性评价的层次分析模型，将泉州湾地区建设用地按危险性程度分为高危险、中危险、低危险、安全四个等级。评价结果：泉州湾大部分地区相对安全，适宜作为建设用地进行工程建设；高危险和中危险区主要位于西部山地丘陵地区，且处于断裂带附近，不适合进行开发建设；东部沿海也存在中危险区域，因此不宜再进行过度的工程建设。 This paper analyses the Geological conditions in the area of Quanzhou bay and ensures the major and potential geological disasters of the construction land in Quanzhou bay area which are Earthquakes, col-lapse, landslide and dangerous rock mass. According to the theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process, we set up the analytic hierarchy process model of geological disaster risk assessment. And according to the risk degree of the construction, land in Quanzhou bay area can be divided into four levels: high risk, medium risk, low risk and the safe. By the evaluation results, most areas of the Quanzhou bay are relatively safe and are suit-able for engineering construction as the construction land. High risk area and medium risk area which are not suitable for development and construction are mainly in the western mountainous hilly region and near the fault zone. Danger also exists in the eastern coastal areas, it is not appropriate to conduct excessive construc-tion.

露天矿区景观生态风险空间分异

以露天矿区为研究对象,评价矿区景观生态风险,并采用ESDA方法定量研究矿区生态风险空间分异特征。结果表明,矿区景观生态风险空间分布以高风险区域为核心,由高到低呈环形包围特征。其中,高风险主要分布在矿业生产及城市生活区域,以土地破坏、压占及城市建设为主要风险来源;中等风险主要分布于自然、半自然功能区,以城市生活与农业生产为主要风险来源;低风险区域以林地、荒草地等植被覆盖区域为主,但大面积植被退化、水土流失导致该区域生态基底较差、环境脆弱,加之露天煤矿作业频繁,整体生态环境质量堪忧。同时,不同功能区的风险高低排序(人工区>半自然区>自然区)特征符合常规的区域生态风险等级差异规律。此外,基于ESDA分析矿区景观生态风险,其空间自相关性高达0.7521,风险的空间集聚效应明显;而对比矿区景观生态风险的空间分异特征发现,景观干扰度是高、低风险区域的主要驱动因子;而景观脆弱度则是中等风险区域的驱动因子;基于以上研究结果可对矿区环境管理和风险决策提供一定的数据支撑和理论依据。;The demand for coal resources is increasing with economic development in China. But, the rich mineral resources along with the intensive mining activities, which have led to a lot of ecological and environmental problems, such as environmental pollution, ecological destruction and geological disasters. Eco-risk assessment is an important tool for effective ecological environment management with evaluations of the likelihood and degree of harm.<br>Thus, this paper applied landscape eco-risk assessment methods to estimate the level of the opencast mine area eco-risk. But also the ESDA(Exploratory spatial data analysis) methods were used to analyze the spatial association characteristic of landscape eco-risk in mining area. It turned out that those high-risk areas is the core of the spatial distribution of Landscape eco-risk and from high-risk to low-risk present ring features. In addition, high-risk is mainly distributed in the mining industry and city life areas, sources of which are the mining, coal gangue tie up land and city construction activities. Medium-risk are mainly distributed in nature, half natural functional areas, the main sources of which are the city life and the agricultural production activities. Low-risk areas are covered by sparse vegetation, such as shrub and grassland. However, in research areas, vegetation degradation, soil and water loss leads to the regional ecological base quality was poor. So the ecosystems and environmental factors are fragile here. Moreover, the frequent production activities in mining areas cause more serious ecological and environment problems. The risk degree of the artificial area is higher than the half natural area, and the half natural area is higher than the natural area. It is conform to the conventional law of ecological risk level difference. At the same time, based on the ESDA of the landscape eco-risk in opencast mine area, the space correlation of the risk is up to 0.7521, which indicate that the agglomeration features of the risk obviously. Different characteristics of agglomeration provide the basis for the ecological and environment management. Space differentiation study of Landscape eco-risk in this opencast mine area shows that interference are the main driving factors in the high-risk and low-risk areas. But in the medium-risk area, fragile degree is the main driving factors. With the increase of human interference, landscape lost diversity and tend to simplification. The results of the study on the mining area provide certain data support and theoretical basis to environment management.

APPLICATION OF GIS IN REGIONAL ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF WATER RESOURCES

The regional ecological risk assessment of water resources has spatial, nonlinear and stochastic characteristics. GIS technology can handle large volumes of spatial information, conduct spatial analysis and spatial data management operations. It visually displays the distribution trend of environmental factors and the relationship between topology and regional water ecological risk pattern. This paper presents the five stages of the application of GIS in the regional ecological assessment of water resources and establishes a GIS water environmental risk information database. A hierarchy water resources risk assessment index system has been set up using the AHP method. The composite index method is used to estimate the size of ecological risk. The water risk value is divided into five levels which are the low-risk areas, lower-risk areas, medium-risk areas, higher risk areas and high-risk areas, respectively. For example, through the spherical model fitting and assembly analysis of GIS, the variations and divisions of water risk and their influencing factors in the Shaanxi Province, China, can be better described and analyzed. Therefore, GIS can be employed as a better tool to reflect the spatial distribution of water environmental quality. Accordingly, it can be used to quantitatively study the water resource risk, and to reflect the spatial variation of the water resource risk. Moreover, early warning of water resources utilization can be given, thus providing a basis to improve and enhance the water resources risk management and scientific decision-making.

Fuzzy risk assessment on safety operations for exclusive container terminals at Kaohsiung port in Taiwan

Because risk assessment of safety operations in exclusive container terminals at Kaohsiung port involves a host of complex considerations and uncertain information, we therefore use a fuzziness-based method to minimize the effect of such adverse factors and clarify the assessment process in this article. This article therefore uses fuzzy risk assessment steps to evaluate safety operations in exclusive container terminals at Kaohsiung port in Taiwan. This article first employs three risk assessment steps and then identifies a total of four dimensions with 16 risk factors from the literature and interviews with experts. After proposing a systematic fuzzy risk analysis and evaluation steps in order to determine risk levels, this article conducts an empirical study of Kaohsiung port by means of a survey. The empirical results reveal that (1) the leading factor influencing risk frequency is “communication misunderstanding,” (2) the leading factor influencing risk severity is “human negligence and error,” and (3) three risk factors are located in the high-risk area, while the other 13 risk factors are in the medium-risk area, and no risk factors are in the low-risk area. Furthermore, the analysis of the various risk factors suggests the adoption of three risk management strategies.