Medium-risk Group Research Articles

Infant death prediction using machine learning: A population-based retrospective study

BackgroundDespite declines in infant death rates in recent decades in the United States, the national goal of reducing infant death has not been reached. This study aims to predict infant death using machine-learning approaches. MethodsA population-based retrospective study of live births in the United States between 2016 and 2021 was conducted. Thirty-three factors related to birth facility, prenatal care and pregnancy history, labor and delivery, and newborn characteristics were used to predict infant death. ResultsXGBoost demonstrated superior performance compared to the other four compared machine learning models. The original imbalanced dataset yielded better results than the balanced datasets created through oversampling procedures. The cross-validation of the XGBoost-based model consistently achieved high performance during both the pre-pandemic (2016–2019) and pandemic (2020–2021) periods. Specifically, the XGBoost-based model performed exceptionally well in predicting neonatal death (AUC: 0.98). The key predictors of infant death were identified as gestational age, birth weight, 5-min APGAR score, and prenatal visits. A simplified model based on these four predictors resulted in slightly inferior yet comparable performance to the all-predictor model (AUC: 0.91 vs. 0.93). Furthermore, the four-factor risk classification system effectively identified infant deaths in 2020 and 2021 for high-risk (88.7%–89.0%), medium-risk (4.6%–5.4%), and low-risk groups (0.1), outperforming the risk screening tool based on accumulated risk factors. ConclusionsXGBoost-based models excel in predicting infant death, providing valuable prognostic information for perinatal care education and counselling. The simplified four-predictor classification system could serve as a practical alternative for infant death risk prediction.

Evaluation of a 3-Item Health Index in Predicting Mortality Risk: A 12-Year Follow-Up Study.

This study was carried out using a large cohort (N = 4265; 416 deceased) of older, community-dwelling adults from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). The study compared the performance of a new 3-item health index (HI) with two existing measures, the 32-item frailty index (FI) and the frailty phenotype (FP), in predicting mortality risk. The HI was based on the objective measurement of resting-state systolic blood pressure sample entropy, sustained attention reaction time performance, and usual gait speed. Mortality data from a 12-year follow up period were analyzed using Cox proportional regression. All data processing was performed using MATLAB and statistical analysis using STATA 15.1. The HI showed good discriminatory power (AUC = 0.68) for all-cause mortality, similar to FI (AUC = 0.68) and superior to FP (AUC = 0.60). The HI classified participants into Low-Risk (84%), Medium-Risk (15%), and High-Risk (1%) groups, with the High-Risk group showing a significant hazard ratio (HR) of 5.91 in the unadjusted model and 2.06 in the fully adjusted model. The HI also exhibited superior predictive performance for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths (AUC = 0.74), compared with FI (AUC = 0.70) and FP (AUC = 0.64). The HI High-Risk group had the highest HR (15.10 in the unadjusted and 5.61 in the fully adjusted models) for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The HI remained a significant predictor of mortality even after comprehensively adjusting for confounding variables. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the 3-item HI in predicting 12-year mortality risk across different causes of death. The HI performed similarly to FI and FP for all-cause mortality but outperformed them in predicting cardiovascular and respiratory deaths. Its ability to classify individuals into risk groups offers a practical approach for clinicians and researchers. Additionally, the development of a user-friendly MATLAB App facilitates its implementation in clinical settings. Subject to external validation in clinical research settings, the HI can be more useful than existing frailty measures in the prediction of cardio-respiratory risk.

Validation of a renal risk score in a cohort of children with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis.

Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) is extremely rare in children. Renal involvement is a common and severe complication of AAV as it can cause end stage kidney disease (ESKD). ANCA renal risk score (ARRS) is helpful in predicting long-term ESKD in patients with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN). This retrospective study included 61 consecutive patients with kidney biopsy specimen-proven AAGN from Clinical Center for Children's Kidney Disease in China. Each patient was assessed by eGFR, normal glomeruli, and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, and the renal outcome was evaluated using the ARRS. Based on the ARRS, 27 (44.26%), 21 (34.43%), and 13 (21.31%) patients were divided into the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The median follow-up period was 46.36 (14.58-95.62) months. The high-risk group had worse renal outcomes than the low-risk group (p< 0.05) and the medium-risk group (p < 0.05). COX multivariate regression analysis showed that eGFR ≤ 15 ml/min/1.73 m2 (p = 0.015, Hazard Ratio (HR) = 9.574, 95% CI 4.205-25.187) and ARRS (p = 0.012, HR = 2.115, 95% CI 1.206-4.174) were independent risk factors for ESKD.The area under the curve for ESKD prediction of ARRS was 0.880, and the best cutoff value was 5.50. Delong test result showed that ARRS exhibited better predictive value for ESKD than the Berden classification (p < 0.001) and rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis (p < 0.001). This is the first study to investigate the value of the ARRS for predicting renal prognosis among Chinese children. The ARRS is a preferred index that can predict ESKD in Chinese children with AAGN.

Impact of lifestyle risk factors on admission to nursing home care: a cohort study of 127 108 people aged 60 years and over

BackgroundLittle is known on how lifestyle factors, individually or in combination, may relate to nursing home admission, an outcome of great societal and economic importance with increased population ageing. The...

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for acute appendicitis in children in primary care

Background Recognising acute appendicitis in children presenting with acute abdominal pain in primary care is challenging. General practitioners (GPs) may benefit from a clinical prediction rule. Objectives To develop and validate a clinical prediction rule for acute appendicitis in children presenting with acute abdominal pain in primary care. Methods In a historical cohort study data was retrieved from GP electronic health records included in the Integrated Primary Care Information database. We assigned children aged 4–18 years presenting with acute abdominal pain (≤ 7 days) to development (2010–2012) and validation (2013–2016) cohorts, using acute appendicitis within six weeks as the outcome. Multiple logistic regression was used to develop a prediction model based on predictors with > 50% data availability derived from existing rules for secondary care. We performed internal and external temporal validation and derived a point score to stratify risk of appendicitis into three groups, i.e. low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk. Results The development and validation cohorts included 2,041 and 3,650 children, of whom 95 (4.6%) and 195 (5.3%) had acute appendicitis. The model included male sex, pain duration (<24, 24–48, > 48 h), nausea/vomiting, elevated temperature (≥ 37.3 °C), abnormal bowel sounds, right lower quadrant tenderness, and peritoneal irritation. Internal and temporal validation showed good discrimination (C-statistics: 0.93 and 0.90, respectively) and excellent calibration. In the three groups, the risks of acute appendicitis were 0.5%, 7.5%, and 41%, Conclusion Combined with further testing in the medium-risk group, the prediction rule could improve clinical decision making and outcomes.

Risk management system to reduce COVID-19 infection in health personnelSistema de gestão de riscos para reduzir o contágio de COVID-19 em profissionais de saúde

To assess the occupational factors associated with the occurrence of COVID-19 in health personnel who were exposed to different magnitudes of risk and who followed the United Nations crisis management policy for COVID-19. Cross-sectional survey conducted between April and May 2021. The low-risk group (LRG) were considered to be those who had minimal contact with patients; the medium-risk group (MRG) had contact with non-COVID-19 patients and did not perform instrumental airway intervention; and the high-risk group (HRG) were those who cared for COVID-19 patients and performed instrumental intervention with aerosol generation. Diagnosed COVID-19 disease and the presence of positive IgG antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 measured with Elecsys® anti-SARS-CoV-2 were considered as outcomes. Outcome recorded in 43.8% of the LRG, versus 46.7% in the MRG (odds ratio [OR]: 1.125; 95% confidence interval [CI 95% ]: 0.896-1.414; p = 0.311), and 48.6% in the HRG (OR: 1,214; CI 95%: 0.964-1.530; p= 0.10). Belonging to the high-risk group and the medium-risk group, based on the degree of exposure to confirmed COVID-19 patients in the work area, was not associated with a higher occurrence of disease or seroconversion.

Accurate classification of pulmonary nodules by a combined model of clinical, imaging, and cell-free DNA methylation biomarkers: a model development and external validation study

There is an unmet clinical need for accurate non-invasive tests to facilitate the early diagnosis of lung cancer. We propose a combined model of clinical, imaging, and cell-free DNA methylation biomarkers that aims to improve the classification of pulmonary nodules. We conducted a prospective specimen collection and retrospective masked evaluation study. We recruited participants with a solitary pulmonary nodule sized 5-30 mm from 24 hospitals across 20 cities in China. Participants who were aged 18 years or older and had been referred with 5-30 mm non-calcified and solitary pulmonary nodules, including solid nodules, part solid nodules, and pure ground-glass nodules, were included. We developed a combined clinical and imaging biomarkers (CIBM) model by machine learning for the classification of malignant and benign pulmonary nodules in a cohort (n=839) and validated it in two cohorts (n=258 in the first cohort and n=283 in the second cohort). We then integrated the CIBM model with our previously established circulating tumour DNA methylation model (PulmoSeek) to create a new combined model, PulmoSeek Plus (n=258), and verified it in an independent cohort (n=283). The clinical utility of the models was evaluated using decision curve analysis. A low cutoff (0·65) for high sensitivity and a high cutoff (0·89) for high specificity were applied simultaneously to stratify pulmonary nodules into low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups. The primary outcome was the diagnostic performance of the CIBM, PulmoSeek, and PulmoSeek Plus models. Participants in this study were drawn from two prospective clinical studies that were registered (NCT03181490 and NCT03651986), the first of which was completed, and the second of which is ongoing because 25% of participants have not yet finished the required 3-year follow-up. We recruited a total of 1380 participants. 1097 participants were enrolled from July 7, 2017, to Feb 12, 2019; 839 participants were used for the CIBM model training set, and the rest (n=258) for the first CIBM validation set and the PulmoSeek Plus training set. 283 participants were enrolled from Oct 26, 2018, to March 20, 2020, as an independent validation set for the PulmoSeek Plus model and the second validation set for the CIBM model. The CIBM model validation cohorts had area under the curves (AUCs) of 0·85 (95% CI 0·80-0·89) and 0·85 (0·81-0·89). The PulmoSeek Plus model had better discrimination capacity compared with the CIBM and PulmoSeek models with an increase of 0·05 in AUC (PulmoSeek Plus vs CIBM, 95% CI 0·022-0·087, p=0·001; and PulmoSeek Plus vs PulmoSeek, 0·018-0·083, p=0·002). The overall sensitivity of the PulmoSeek Plus model was 0·98 (0·97-0·99) at a fixed specificity of 0·50 for ruling out lung cancer. A high sensitivity of 0·98 (0·96-0·99) was maintained in early-stage lung cancer (stages 0 and I) and 0·99 (0·96-1·00) in 5-10 mm nodules. The decision curve showed that if an invasive intervention, such as surgical resection or biopsy, was deemed necessary at more than the risk threshold score of 0·54, the PulmoSeek Plus model would provide a standardised net benefit of 82·38% (76·06-86·79%), equivalent to correctly identifying approximately 83 of 100 people with lung cancer. Using the PulmoSeek Plus model to classify pulmonary nodules with two cutoffs (0·65 and 0·89) would have reduced 89% (105/118) of unnecessary surgeries and 73% (308/423) of delayed treatments. The PulmoSeek Plus Model combining clinical, imaging, and cell-free DNA methylation biomarkers aids the early diagnosis of pulmonary nodules, with potential application in clinical decision making for the management of pulmonary nodules. The China National Science Foundation, the Key Project of Guangzhou Scientific Research Project, the High-Level University Construction Project of Guangzhou Medical University, the National Key Research & Development Programme, the Guangdong High Level Hospital Construction "Reaching Peak" Plan, the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, The Leading Projects of Guangzhou Municipal Health Sciences Foundation, the Key Research and Development Plan of Shaanxi Province of China, the Scheme of Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development District for Leading Talents in Innovation and Entrepreneurship, the Scheme of Guangzhou for Leading Talents in Innovation and Entrepreneurship, the Scheme of Guangzhou for Leading Team in Innovation, the Guangzhou Development Zone International Science and Technology Cooperation Project, and the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou.

Association of adverse outcomes with three-tiered risk assessment tool for obstetrical hemorrhage

Guidelines promote stratification for the risk for postpartum hemorrhage among parturients, although the evidence for the associated differential morbidity among the groups remains inconsistent among published reports. Using the California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative schema modified by the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology, we compared the composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome and the composite neonatal adverse outcome among singletons who were categorized after delivery by the researchers as low-, medium-, or high-risk for postpartum hemorrhage. We hypothesized that the composite outcomes would be significantly different among the individuals in the different 3-tiered categories. This was a retrospective cohort study of all singleton parturients with a gestational age of at least 14 weeks who delivered at a single site within 1 year. The composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome included any of the following: estimated blood loss ≥1000 mL, use of uterotonics (excluding prophylactic oxytocin) or Bakri balloon, surgical management of postpartum hemorrhage, blood transfusion, hysterectomy, thromboembolism, admission to the intensive care unit, or maternal death. The composite neonatal adverse outcome included Apgar score <7 at 5 minutes, birth injury, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, neonatal seizure, sepsis, ventilation > 6 hrs., brachial plexus palsy, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, or neonatal death. Multivariable Poisson regression models with robust error variance were used to estimate the adjusted relative risks with 95% confidence intervals. Of the 4544 deliveries in the study period, 4404 (96.7%) met the inclusion criteria, and among them, 1745 (39.6%) were categorized as low, 1376 (31.2%) as medium, and 1283 (29.1%) as high risk. Overall, 941 (21.4%) participants experienced the composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome with 285 (16.4%) of those being in the low-risk group, 319 (23.2%) in the medium-risk group, and 337 (26.3%) in the high-risk group. Among all parturients, 95.7% in the low-, 89.4% in the medium-, and 85.3% in the high-risk group neither had an estimated blood loss or a quantified blood loss ≥1000 mL nor were transfused. After multivariable adjustment and when compared with the low-risk group, there was a significantly higher risk for the composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome in the medium-risk group (adjusted relative risk, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.43) and in the high-risk group (adjusted relative risk, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.75). Overall, 366 newborns (8.4%) developed the composite neonatal adverse outcome with 76 (4.2%) in of those being in the low-risk group, 153 (11.3%) in the medium-risk group, and 140 (11.1%) in the high-risk group. After multivariable adjustment and when compared with the low-risk group, there were no significant differences in the composite neonatal adverse outcome in the medium- (adjusted relative risk, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.68) or the high-risk group (adjusted relative risk, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.68). Although 8 of 10 parturients categorized as high risk neither had blood loss ≥1000 mL nor underwent transfusion, the risk stratification provides information regarding the composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome.

Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis

PurposeIt was of great significance to identify someone with a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and make a diagnosis as early as possible. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a new, objective, and accurate prediction model, and convert it into a nomogram to make a personalized prediction of cancer occurrence in cirrhotic patients with different etiologies.MethodsThe present study included 938 patients with cirrhosis from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2012. Patients were prospectively followed-up until January 1, 2018. We used a competing risk model and the Fine–Gray test to develop and validate the prediction model and to plot a nomogram based on the model established.ResultsAt the end of follow-up, 202 (21.5%) patients developed HCC, with a 5-year incidence of 19.0% (corrected for competing risk model). Based on the competing risk regression method, we built a prediction model including age, gender, etiology, lymphocyte, and A/G ratio. Three groups with different risks were generated on account of tertiles of the 5-year risk predicted by the model. The cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year incidences of HCC were 2.0%, 20.8%, and 42.3% in high-risk group, 0.9%, 10.1%, and 17.7% in medium-risk group, and 0%, 2.0%, 8.5% in low-risk group (P < 0.001). The model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the risk of HCC occurrence in patients with all-cause cirrhosis.ConclusionThe model could make an individual prediction of cancer occurrence and stratify patients based on predicted risk, regardless of the causes of cirrhosis.

Correlation analysis between body composition, serological indices and the risk of falls, and the receiver operating characteristic curve of different indexes for the risk of falls in older individuals.

This study assessed the risk factors for falls and evaluated the correlation between body composition, serological indices, and the risk of falls in older individuals. This cross-sectional study included 387 individuals ≥60 years of age in the cadre ward of the First Hospital of Jilin University. The information used in this study was obtained from the comprehensive geriatric assessment database of the cadre ward. The body composition of the individuals was measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis using an InBody S10 device. We assessed fall risk using the fall risk assessment tool. Individuals with ≤2 points were placed in the low-risk group, those with 3-9 points were placed in the medium-risk group, and those with ≥10 points were placed in the high-risk group. Differences in age, educational background, height, cognitive impairment, malnutrition, ability of daily living, depression, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, intracellular water, total body moisture, water ratio, limb moisture (right and left, upper and lower), trunk moisture, fat-free weight, arm girth, body cell mass, skeletal muscle mass, limb muscle (right and left, upper and lower), appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI), sarcopenia, hemoglobin level, hematocrit level, aspartate aminotransferase level, albumin level, anemia, and hypoproteinemia were observed among the three groups (p < 0.001, p = 0.002, p = 0.006, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p = 0.008, p = 0.010). Ordinal logistic regression analysis showed that the probability of the fall risk increasing by one level was 1.902 times higher for each unit of decrease in educational background, respectively. In addition, the probability of the fall risk increasing by one level was 2.971, 3.732, 3.804, 1.690 and 2.155 times higher for each additional unit of age, cognitive impairment, lower limb edema, decreased skeletal muscle mass, and sarcopenia, respectively. Our findings suggest that educational background, age, cognitive impairment, lower limb edema, decreased skeletal muscle mass, and sarcopenia were associated with falls in older individuals. Body composition and serological indices can assist in the early identification of falls in the older people.

Prognostic value of EBV DNA and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a retrospective study

PurposeAnalyzing the prognostic value of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA load and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients, thereby developing a reliable and effective marker.MethodsWe compared survival rates among different groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Log-rank test. The factors affecting the prognosis of NPC patients were determined using univariate and multivariate cox regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to identify the cutoff-value and discriminant performance of the model.ResultsThe ROC curve indicated a cut-off value of 775 copies/ml for EBV DNA and 203.3 for PLR. Kaplan-Meier and Log-rank tests showed that 3-year overall survival (OS), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) of NPC patients in high risk group (HRG) were significantly poorer than those in medium risk group (MRG) and low risk group (LRG). The 3-year OS of NPC patients was significantly correlated with age, N stage and EBV DNA-PLR. The 3-year LRFS were significantly correlated with sex, N stage, histology type, and EBV DNA-PLR. The 3-year DMFS were correlated with histology type. The ROC curve showed that area under the curve (AUC) values of EBV DNA-PLR of 3-year OS, LRFS and DMFS in NPC were higher than those of PLR and EBV DNA.ConclusionEBV DNA-PLR is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of NPC. Compared with PLR or EBV DNA alone, the combination of EBV DNA and PLR may be more accurate in predicting the prognosis of NPC patients.

Improved Outcome for ALL by Prolonging Therapy for IKZF1 Deletion and Decreasing Therapy for Other Risk Groups.

The ALL10 protocol improved outcomes for children with ALL by stratifying and adapting therapy into three minimal residual disease-defined risk groups: standard risk, medium risk (MR), and high risk. IKZF1-deleted (IKZF1del) ALL in the largest MR group still showed poor outcome, in line with protocols worldwide, accounting for a high number of overall relapses. ALL10 showed high toxicity in Down syndrome (DS) and excellent outcome in ETV6::RUNX1 ALL. Poor prednisone responders (PPRs) were treated as high risk in ALL10. In ALL11, we prolonged therapy for IKZF1del from 2 to 3 years. We reduced therapy for DS by omitting anthracyclines completely, for ETV6::RUNX1 in intensification, and for PPR by treatment as MR. Eight hundred nineteen patients with ALL (age, 1-18 years) were enrolled on ALL11 and stratified as in ALL10. Results were compared with those in ALL10. The five-year overall survival (OS), event-free survival (EFS), cumulative risk of relapse (CIR), and death in complete remission on ALL11 were 94.2% (SE, 0.9%), 89.0% (1.2), 8.2% (1.1), and 2.3% (0.6), respectively. Prolonged maintenance for IKZF1del MR improved 5-year CIR by 2.2-fold (10.8% v 23.4%; P = .035) and EFS (87.1% v 72.3%; P = .019). Landmark analysis at 2 years from diagnosis showed a 2.9-fold reduction of CIR (25.6%-8.8%; P = .008) and EFS improvement (74.4%-91.2%; P = .007). Reduced therapy did not abrogate 5-year outcome for ETV6::RUNX1 (EFS, 98.3%; OS, 99.4%), DS (EFS, 87.0%; OS, 87.0%), and PPR (EFS, 81.1%; OS, 94.9%). Children with IKZF1del ALL seem to benefit from prolonged maintenance therapy. Chemotherapy was successfully reduced for patients with ETV6::RUNX1, DS, and PPR ALL. It has to be noted that these results were obtained in a nonrandomized study using a historical control group.

A novel risk score for predicting prolonged length of stay following pediatric kidney transplant.

Kidney transplants (KT) are accepted as the kidney replacement therapy of choice for children with kidney failure. The surgery itself may be more difficult especially in small children, and often leads to significant hospital stays. There is little research on predicting prolonged length of stay (LOS) in children. We aim to examine the factors associated with prolonged LOS following pediatric KT to help clinicians make informed decisions, better counsel families, and potentially reduce preventable causes of prolonged stay. We retrospectively analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing database for all KT recipients less than 18years old between January 2014 and July 2022 (n = 3693). Donor and recipient factors were tested in univariate and multivariate logistic analysis using stepwise elimination of non-significant factors to create a final regression model predicting LOS longer than 14days. Values were assigned to significant factors to create risk scores for each individual patient. In the final model, only primary diagnosis of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, dialysis prior to KT, geographic region, and recipient weight prior to KT were significant predictors of LOS longer than 14days. The C-statistic of the model is 0.7308. The C-statistic of the risk score is 0.7221. Knowledge of the risk factors affecting prolonged LOS following pediatric KT can help identify patients at risk of increased resource use and potential hospital-acquired complications. Using our index, we identified some of these specific risk factors and created a risk score that can stratify pediatric recipients into low, medium, or high risk groups. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Validation of the Stopping Opioids After Surgery (SOS) Score for the Sustained Use of Prescription Opioids Following Orthopaedic Surgery.

The Stopping Opioids after Surgery (SOS) score was developed to identify patients at risk for sustained opioid use following surgery. The SOS score has not been specifically validated for patients in a general orthopaedic context. Our primary objective was to validate the SOS score within this context. In this retrospective cohort study, we considered a broad array of representative orthopaedic procedures performed between January 1, 2018, and March 31, 2022. These procedures included rotator cuff repair, lumbar discectomy, lumbar fusion, total knee and total hip arthroplasty, open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of ankle fracture, ORIF of distal radial fracture, and anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. The performance of the SOS score was evaluated by calculating the c-statistic, receiver operating characteristic curve, and the observed rates of sustained prescription opioid use (defined as uninterrupted prescriptions of opioids for ≥90 days) following surgery. For our sensitivity analysis, we compared these metrics among various time epochs related to the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 26,114 patients were included, of whom 51.6% were female and 78.1% were White. The median age was 63 years. The observed prevalence of sustained opioid use was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2% to 1.5%) in the low-risk group (SOS score of <30), 7.4% (95% CI, 6.9% to 8.0%) in the medium-risk group (SOS score of 30 to 60), and 20.8% (95% CI, 17.7% to 24.2%) in the high-risk group (SOS score of >60). The performance of the SOS score in the overall group was strong, with a c-statistic of 0.82. The performance of the SOS score showed no evidence of worsening over time. The c-statistic was 0.79 before the COVID-19 pandemic and ranged from 0.77 to 0.80 throughout the waves of the pandemic. We validated the use of the SOS score for sustained prescription opioid use following a diverse array of orthopaedic procedures across subspecialties. This tool is easy to implement for the purpose of prospectively identifying patients in musculoskeletal service lines who are at higher risk for sustained opioid use, thereby enabling the future implementation of upstream interventions and modifications to avert opioid abuse and to combat the opioid epidemic. Diagnostic Level III . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Using days alive and out of hospital to measure surgical outcomes in New Zealand: a cross-sectional study

ObjectivesTo measure differences at various deciles in days alive and out of hospital to 90 days (DAOH90) and explore its utility for identifying outliers of performance among district health boards...

Using the HEART score in patients with chest pain in the emergency department of Kosovo as an important triage criterion for treatment and hospitalization.

Clinical information on 269 individuals with chest pain admitted to the Emergency Room was reviewed: January 2022 until January 2023. A prospective registry was used to record information about patients with nontraumatic chest discomfort who were admitted from the emergency department. Over a 12-month period, patients admitted in emergency department were classified through HEART score. From them 101 patients (37%) belong to the age group older than or equal to 65 years, 134 patients (50%) belong to the age group 45-65 years, and 34 patients (13%) belong to the age group younger than or equal to 45 years. Strong positive correlation between troponin level (HEART score) and hospitalization, also p value 0.043 is typically considered to be statistically significant. According to HEART score classification 43 cases (60%) from the group with 7-10 (high risk) were hospitalized. According to anamnesis (history) on cardiovascular disease in relation to hospitalization, then 48 cases hospitalized (67%) belong to the classification 1-moderately suspicious and 21 cases hospitalized (29%) belong to the classification 2-highly suspicious classification. The HEART score can be used for triage since it is a simple, rapid, and accurate predictor of outcome in patients with chest pain. A medium risk group included about half of the patients who reported chest pain to an emergency room. Hospitalization and troponin level had a strong positive link (HEART score), with a p value of 0.043.

FACTORS AFFECTING THE KNOWLEDGE AND ATTITUDE OF COTTON GROWERS TO ADOPT INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT

The study, conducted in Gujarat’s Surendranagar district, examined constraints faced by cotton growers in adopting integrated pest management (IPM) and sought their suggestions. The research involved 120 respondents and used an ex-post facto research design. Findings revealed that 51.67 per cent of the farmers were in the middle age group, with 28.34 per cent having a middle school education. In terms of farm experience, 61.66 per cent had medium-level experience, and 45.83 per cent had received training. Additionally, 34.18 per cent had families of five to six members, and 46.66 per cent had an annual income ranging from Rs. 1,00,001 to Rs. 1,50,000. Landholding size was medium for 56.66 per cent of farmers, while 63.34per cent had a medium level of social participation. Furthermore, 67.50 per cent had medium-level mass media exposure, and 45.00 per cent had medium-level scientific orientation. Risk orientation showed 62.50 per cent of farmers in the medium-risk group, and 54.84 per cent had a medium level of innovativeness. This study highlights the multifaceted factors influencing cotton growers’ knowledge and attitude towards IPM. Education, farm experience, training, income, social participation, mass media exposure, scientific orientation, risk orientation, and innovativeness significantly contribute to the adoption of IPM strategies. The study identified non-availability of tricho-cards, Trichoderma, pheromone traps, and light traps in local markets as major constraints. Cotton growers suggested making these items available at the local market to facilitate their adoption of IPM.

#5346 RE-ASSESSMENT OF PATHOLOGICAL DATA OF VASCULITIS PATIENTS WITH RENAL INVOLVEMENT ACCORDING TO CURRENT SCORING SYSTEMS AND CLINICAL CORRELATION

Abstract Background and Aims Renal involvement is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality in ANCA associated vasculitis (AAV) patients. Predicting renal prognosis in AAV patients with renal involvement has been a challenge over the last decade. To date Berden Classification which focuses on glomerular lesions at renal biopsy proposed in 2010, Mayo Clinic Chronicity Score also including non-glomerular histopathological chronicity findings proposed in 2017 and adding eGFR at diagnosis to glomerular and non-glomerular chronicity findings at renal biopsy constructing ANCA Renal Risk Score (ARRS) proposed in 2018 have all addressed the latter challenge. In this study, we aimed to validate the impact of these 3 classification systems on the renal and patient survival in our ANCA associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN) patient population. Method Thirty-seven AAV patients with biopsy proven renal involvement who have been treated and followed-up at our multidisciplinary vasculitis clinic at Marmara University School of Medicine, Istanbul, Turkey between 2000-2020 were included in the study. Renal biopsies were re-evaluated by our pathologist and patients were grouped according to Berden Classification, Mayo Chronicity Score and ARRS. Renal survival and mortality analyses were carried out for 3 classification systems in order to evaluate their success at predicting prognosis and survival. Results Evaluated according to Berden Classification, 40.5% (n = 15) were classified as focal, 8.1% (n = 3) were sclerotic, 40.5% (n = 15) were crescentic and 10.8% (n = 4) were mixed. Focal group was associated with best renal prognosis and patients in mixed group had poorest renal prognosis. Differences in renal survival rates (p = 0.111) and patient survival rates (p = 0.129) among Berden Classification groups were not statistically significant. According to Mayo Chronicity Score, 16.2% of the patients were scored as minimal, 51.4% were as mild and %32.4 were in medium group. None of the patients were classified as severe. Compared to minimal group, mild and medium groups were found to be significantly associated with CKD development (p = 0.002). Mortality rates were similar between the groups according to Mayo Chronicity Score (p = 0.143). In renal survival analysis, mild and medium groups were associated with decreased renal survival (p = 0.046). When evaluated for ARRS, 29.4% of the patients were in low risk group, 45.9% of the patients were in medium risk group and 24.3% of the patients were in high risk group. Medium and high risk groups were associated with higher probability of progression to CKD (p = 0.000). Renal survival was found to be poorest in high risk group and best in low risk group (p = 0.017). Although mortality rates were higher in medium risk group than lower and higher risk groups, the difference has not reached statistical significance (0(0%) vs. 7 (38.9%) vs. 2 (22.2%); p = 0.067). Renal survival in AAGN patients according to Berden Classification, Mayo Chronicity Score and ARRS parameters are shown in Figure 1. Conclusion Recent classification systems were evaluated among our AAGN patients and our results showed that addition of eGFR at diagnosis to glomerular and non-glomerular histopathological findings were predictive of renal prognosis. Mayo Chronicity Score and ARRS systems can be used to predict patients’ renal reserve at diagnosis and also they can be used as a prognostic tool to predict patients’ probability of progressing to chronic kidney disease, end stage kidney disease.

#5906 THE PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF DIFFERENT HISTOPATHOLOGIC MODELS OF ANCA-ASSOCIATED VASCULITIDES: A PROSPECTIVE STUDY

Abstract Background and Aims Renal histology in ANCA-associated vasculitides-glomerulonephritis (AAV/GN) is characterized by active (inflammation, necrosis, crescents) and chronic lesions (sclerosis, fibrosis), and lately classified by Berden Classification (BC), ANCA renal risk (RRS) and Mayo Chronicity score (MCCS). We aimed to prospectively compare predictive ability of the three classification models in AVV. Method 27 AVV/GN patients, 17 females, were estimated at time of diagnosis (T0), based on renal biopsy, commenced on the same treatment protocol, cyclophosphamide+steroids, and followed for 6 months. BC, RRS and MCCS Classification models were initially applied on renal biopsies and results were correlated to renal function at T0, and accordingly, 3 (T3) and 6 (T6) months. Results Patients’ median age at presentation was 61.9(18-82) years, ratio of MPO/PR3/ANCA- was 17/7/3, eGFR was 19(19)mg/ml/1.73m2, and 11/27(40.7%) patients were hemodialysis-dependent (HD) at T0. Based to BC model, 5(18,5%), 9(33,3%), 8(29,7%), 5(18,5%) were classified as Focal, Crescentic, Mixed, Sclerotic, respectively, while according to RRS 7(26%), 10(37%), 10(37%) as Low, Medium, High, respectively and to MCCS 3(11%), 13(48%), 6(22%), 5(19%) as Minimal, Mild, Moderate, Severe, respectively. During follow up eGFR significantly increased from T0 towards T3 and T6, 19(19), 34(21), 38.5(26)mg/ml/1.73m2, respectively, p&amp;lt;0.0001. In RRS model, significant improvement was noticed in patients classified as low, eGFR from 37.5(55) vs. 57.5(39) vs. 57(22)mg/ml/1.73m2, p = 0.019) or medium risk group, 31(24) vs. 39(18) vs. 40(10)mg/ml/1.73m2, p = 0.047), at T0, T3, T6, respectively. In BC, a significant increase of eGFR was evident in sclerotic class, 18(9) vs. 32(17) vs. 38(21)mg/ml/1.73m2, respectively p = 0.05. RRS showed important results regarding HD dependence. At T0, from the 11 HD patients 1/3/7 were classified as low/medium/high risk, p = 0.04, the ratio changed to 0/1/5, respectively, p = 0.02 at T3 and 0/1/4, p = 0.04 at T6. No patient with low risk RRS remained on HD, while, 7/10 patients with high RRS, were still on HD at T6. BC and MCCS could not predict end stage renal function either at 3 or 6 months of follow up. Conclusion In the short term follow up, ANCA renal risk could better predict renal function outcome compared to Berden Classification and Mayo Chronicity Score, with high RRS frequently leading to HD. Instead, the sclerotic class in BC was not predictive of poor outcome.

#4790 SERUM BIOMARKERS AS PREDICTORS OF RENAL DAMAGE IN ANCA-ASSOCIATED VASCULITIDES

Abstract Background and aims Despite therapeutic advances, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitides (AAV) carry poor renal and survival outcomes. Prognostic elements are needed to guide treatment. Several studies explored determinants of AAV outcomes, but predictive factors are not well established. Poor prognosis factors have been lower glomerular filtration rate, lower serum C3, C3 deposition on immunofluorescence (IF), and recently platelet count below 250 × 109/L. Histopathological lesions have also been related to renal outcomes. In this study we aim to correlate serum immune and inflammatory biomarkers with renal histological lesions’ severity. Methods We retrospectively analysed histopathological findings of adults with biopsy-proven AAV renal involvement through Berden's histopathological classification (BHC) classes, Brix's renal risk score (BRS), interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) and crescentic glomeruli percentages (%), C3 positive IF and presence of interstitial hemorrhage (IH). Patients’ ANCA titer (ANCAd) measured by ELISA, serum C3 and C-reactive protein (CRP) were documented at diagnosis. ANCA titer was also registered at last follow-up date (ANCAf). Univariate statistical analysis was used to correlate every biomarker with every histologic variable mentioned. C3 and CRP were used as continuous variables and ANCA titers as continuous and categorical variables. As a continuous variable, ANCA titers above laboratorial detection were not considered (i.e. &amp;gt;134). Seronegative AAV were not considered for titer analysis. BRS was considered as continuous variable for its score and as categorical for its risk group. Multivariate analysis was used to identify independent predictors renal biopsy findings. Results We included 46 patients with biopsy-proven AAV kidney involvement from January 2006 to January 2023, 65.2% male (n = 30), median age 66.5 (60.75-74.5), 78.3% (36) MPO, 15.2% (7) PR3 and 6.5% (3) seronegative; and 6.5% (3) had concomitant anti-GBM+ (all MPO). Categorization by ANCAd revealed 7.7% (3) 0-19 UI/mL, 7.7% (3) 20-39, 7.7% (3) 40-59, 20.5% (8) 60-99, 12.8% (5) 100-134 and 43.6% &amp;gt;134. According to BHC, biopsies were: 17.4% (8) global sclerotic, 28.3% (13) mixed, 39.1% (18) crescentic, and 15.2% (7) focal. According to BRS, 2.2% (1) had low risk, 28.3% (13) medium risk and 58.7% (27) high risk of ESKD. 5 biopsies had incomplete information for a score result. Median BRS was 9 – high risk. IF C3 was positive 28.3% (16) biopsies, and IH in 10.9% (5). Median % IFTA was 40% and median %crescentic was 33%. In univariate analysis, ANCAd did not correlate to BHC class both as continuous and categorical variable (p = 0.477 and p = 0.685 respectively), nor to %IFTA (p = 0.935, p = 0.938), nor %crescents (p = 0.975, p = 0.938), nor C3 IF staining (p = 0.690, p = 0.344), nor IH presence (p = 0.773, p = 0.897), nor to BRS risk groups (p = 0.339, p = 0.584). ANCAd titer did not correlate to BRS score value (p = 0.072, r = 0.372), both as continous variables. However, ANCAf did correlate to BRS´s risk groups (p = 0.037), with ANCAf values higher in the high-risk compared to the medium-risk group (p = 0.016). In multivariate analysis including age and gender, ANCAf persists as a predictor of BRS´s risk groups (p&amp;lt;0.001, model p&amp;lt;0.001). C3 levels at diagnosis did not have statistically significant correlation with neither histological finding: BHC class (p = 0.282), BRS score (p = 0.683), % IFTA (p = 0.753), % crescents (p = 0.989), C3 on IF (p = 0.472) and IH (p = 0.773). No significant correlation was seen when considering CRP at diagnosis: BHC class (p = 0.162), BRS (p = 0.276), %IFTA (p = 0.343), %crescents (p = 0.071), C3 on IF (p = 0.657) and IH (p = 0.951). Conclusions ANCA titer at diagnosis, serum C3 and CRP did not correlate with histological severity and chronicity lesions in our population. Nonetheless, larger cohorts, systematization of biopsy findings and studies on newer biomarkers might bring helpful information to expected prognosis and initial therapeutic approaches. A positive correlation between ANCA levels at the last follow-up date and medium and high-risk BRS groups on initial biopsy might be further explored in larger studies.