Degenerative disc changes are associated with low back pain and negatively impact quality of life. Disc degeneration process usually starts with nucleus pulposus change. There is uncertainty about the risk factors associated with the progression of disc nucleus degeneration due to the lack of an objective evaluation method. Pfirrmann grade, which assesses the morphological characteristics of a disc on T2-weighted MRI images on a scale of 1 to 5, is one of the most frequently used assessment systems. This method inherently has a degree of subjectivity that may lead to inaccurate and inconsistent grading. A recent study introduced the disc signal intensity index (DSI2) for quantitative assessment of nucleus pulposus degeneration with promising results in identifying of risk factors for progression of disc degeneration. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors for the progression of nucleus pulpous degeneration in the lumbar vertebral disc on longitudinal MRI data using DSI2. Retrospective longitudinal study PATIENT SAMPLE: Patients with lumbar MRIs at least three years apart and did not undergo the lumbar spine surgery between both time points were included. Potential contributing factors were collected that included age, biological sex, race, body mass index (BMI), current smoking status, alcohol consumption, history of previous lumbar decompression surgery, and comorbidities such as congestive heart failure (CHF), myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, and rheumatoid arthritis. Disc nucleus degeneration was assessed using the DSI2 and Pfirrmann grade on T2- weighted MRI. The DSI2 values are based on the mean signal of disc spaces within a circular region of interest (ROI), which was adjusted by the signal intensity of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) on the midsagittal plane. Three ROIs were set per disc (anterior 1/3, middle, posterior 1/3), and the mean values of all three measurements from L1/2 to L5/S1 disc space were utilized. Discs with complete collapse and no space for ROI selection were excluded. The difference in DSI2 scores between these two time points were compared. Multivariate linear mixed regression analysis was conducted to determine the factors associated with disc degenerative changes. A total of 325 patients and 1439 discs were included in the final analysis. 173 patients (53.2%) were female and the median age of all patients was 60.1 years. The mean (SD) DSI2 score was 0.177 (0.074) for thefirst MRI and 0.184 (0.081) for the second MRI. The Pfirrmann grading for the first MRI timepoint were as follows: 23 discs (1.42%) were Grade 1, 377 discs (23.2%) were Grade 2, 583 discs (35.9%) were Grade 3, 456 discs (28.1%) were Grade 4, and 186 discs (11.5%) were Grade 5. Multivariable linear mixed regression analysis demonstrated that older age (p=0.030) and the presence of congestive heart failure (p<0.001) were significant risk factors for disc nucleus degenerative progression. The present study demonstrated that age and congestive heart failure were risk factors for progression of disc nucleus degeneration. These insights may aid in identifying patients at risk for degenerative lumbar conditions and guide further studies about preventive measures. The DSI2 method offers a promising alternative evaluation method for future disc research.
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