Abstract The temperature rise in circuit breakers' thermal paths is a critical indicator influencing their tripping characteristics, directly affecting response speed, reliability, and safety. Existing models for predicting circuit breaker temperature rise are often structurally limited, lack generality, and exhibit low predictive accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper investigates an efficient, precise, and widely applicable theoretical model for predicting circuit breaker temperature rise. This model focuses on the thermal conduction mechanisms within small-scale circuit breakers, establishing a fundamental numerical heat transfer model based on Newton's cooling formula and Fourier's heat conduction law. By applying numerical Laplace transformation, the model is simplified into the complex frequency domain, and employing residue theorem for solving, it is transformed back into the time domain using Laplace inverse transformation to derive the predictive model. Experimental validation using a 32A rated current circuit breaker demonstrates the model's high predictive accuracy, suitability across various circuit breaker structures, with an average deviation below the permissible deviation in industry standards. This research holds significant implications for enhancing the thermal tripping characteristics of circuit breakers.