Measures Of Monetary Policy Shocks Research Articles

The Identification of the Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Actions Using Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks

It has become common practice to estimate the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions using market-based measures such as the unexpected change in the federal funds futures rate as proxies for monetary policy shocks. I show that because interest rates and market-based measures of monetary policy shocks respond simultaneously to all news rather than simply news about monetary policy actions, estimates of the response of interest rates to monetary policy using only monetary policy news measures are biased. I propose a methodology that corrects for this “joint-response bias.” The results indicate that when the bias is accounted for the response of Treasury yields to monetary policy actions is considerably smaller than previously estimated.

Romer and Romer's New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks and the Nature of Supply Shocks

Using quarterly data this paper re-examines the series of (exogenous) federal funds rate shocks created by Romer and Romer (AER, 2004). First, this paper finds that the Romer and Romer series passes two specification tests: they have no long-run effect on output and are eventually completely reversed. Second, using the Romer and Romer series as a measure of monetary policy shocks, it is found that all of the remaining shocks in a small VAR are supply shocks. One shock - the AD-AS shock - shifts the AD and AS curves approximately the same distance and along with the Romer and Romer series explains nearly all the variation in real GDP. The other supply shocks appear to be inflation shocks: an expected inflation shock and an unexpected inflation shock. The expected inflation shock causes nearly all the short-run, endogenous variation in the federal funds rate, while in the long run about one-half of the endogenous variation in the federal funds rate is the result of the Fed reversing previous policy shocks.

Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy

Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets’ expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In particular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business-cycle indicators such as Treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads. Excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns. We document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy. We also show that risk premia matter for some futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature.

Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy

Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets' expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In particular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business-cycle indicators such as Treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads. Excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns. We document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy. We also show that risk premia matter for some futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature.

Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocks

Abstract. We employ the identification scheme of Kahn, Kandel and Sarig (2002) to analyse the impact of Canadian monetary policy on ex ante real interest rates and inflationary expectations. First, we decompose nominal interest rates into ex ante real rates and inflationary expectations using the methodology of Blanchard and Quah (1989). Then we estimate a recursive VAR model with innovations in a monetary aggregate and the overnight target interest rate as alternative measures of monetary policy shocks. We find that a negative policy shock raises both nominal and ex ante real interest rates, lowers inflationary expectations and real industrial output, and appreciates the Canadian dollar.

Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy

Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets' expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In particular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business-cycle indicators such as Treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads. Excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns. We document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy. We also show that risk premia matter for some futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature.

Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy

Exogenous measures of monetary policy shocks, directly derived from financial market information, are used in close (US) and open (US–Germany) economy VAR models to evaluate the robustness of the dynamic effect of monetary policy obtained from traditional identified VAR. The empirical analysis confirms the main features of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in US and Germany, explicitly addressing the issue of simultaneity between the German policy interest rate and the US dollar–DMark exchange rate.

Survey Expectations of Monetary Conditions in New Zealand: Determinants and Implications for the Transmission of Policy

In this paper, we use a unique database on expected monetary conditions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Survey of Expectations to study how policy signals are transmitted. In order to exploit the ordinal nature of the data, we run an ordered probit model where expected monetary conditions are a function of expected financial market variables and some narrative measures of monetary policy shocks. Although conclusions about the impact of policy shocks on public's expectations are somewhat tentative, the results could be interpreted as evidence of divergence between the Reserve Bank's and the public's view. Overall, the paper shows that surveyed expectations contain valuable information on the transmission of monetary policy. On average, respondents place more weight on the interest rate than on the exchange rate, and particularly so in sectors that are less exposed to international trade. Moreover, the relative weights vary substantially over time as different shocks hit the economy. We test for the presence of regime shifts in expectations due to changes to either the institutional framework or the implementation system. We find a significant effect of the introduction of the Reserve Bank Act in 1989.

Information from Financial Markets and VAR Measures of Monetary Policy

Exogenous measures of monetary policy shocks, directly derived from financial market information, are used in close (U.S.) and open (U.S.-Germany) economy VAR models to evaluate the robustness of the dynamic effect of monetary policy obtained from traditional identified VAR. The empirical analysis confirms the main features of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in U.S. and Germany, explicitly addressing the issue of simultaneity between the German policy interest rate and the U.S. dollar-DMark exchange rate.