Measurement Of Technological Change Research Articles

Industrial Robots, Economic Growth, and Sustainable Development in an Aging Society

The impact of industrial robots and aging on economic growth is analyzed using both theoretical and empirical models in this paper. An aging mechanism is integrated into the task model and Solow model, which integrates the existing relationship between industrial robots and economic growth. Our data come from the International Robot Federation, Penn World Table, and the World Bank, and we obtain robot usage data and macroeconomic data for 77 countries and regions between 1993 and 2019. We found that industrial robots can stimulate economic growth, but aging does not affect it. It is worth noting that aging has more adverse effects on economies using industrial robots than economies without industrial robots. Further, according to mechanism analysis, the main channel of economic growth is industrial robots replacing labor, followed by improving total factor productivity (TFP), a measure of technological change in an economy. Given endogenous problems, the results are still stable.

Future of work and employee empowerment and satisfaction: Evidence from a decade of technological change

Increasing evidence suggests that technological change will significantly affect interactions in the workplace. Even if technological change displaces some jobs, it may have positive effects among the employees’ who remain employed and subsequent new hires. We introduce a new measure of technological change at the county-level using the growth in the stock of intellectual property (IP) across industries. Using new individual-level data between 2008 and 2018 from Gallup, we quantify the effects of technological change on employee empowerment and well-being. Our results suggest that technological change is associated with positive effects on employee empowerment and life satisfaction. The results are strongest in workplaces with trust and more directive managers, suggesting that structured management may be help mediate the emergence of AI and automation.

The Future of Work and Employee Job Attitudes and Well-Being

Increasing evidence suggests that technological change will significantly affect interactions in the workplace. Even if technological change displaces some jobs, it may have positive effects among the employees’ who remain employed and subsequent new hires. We introduce a new measure of technological change at the county-level using the growth in the stock of intellectual property (IP) across industries. Using new individual-level data between 2008 and 2018 from Gallup, we quantify the effects of technological change on employee empowerment and well-being. Our results suggest that technological change is associated with positive effects on employee empowerment and life satisfaction. The results are strongest in workplaces with trust and more directive managers, suggesting that structured management may be help mediate the emergence of AI and automation.

Not All Technological Change is Equal: Disentangling Labor Demand Effects of Automation and Parts Consolidation

We measure the labor-demand effects of two simultaneous forms of technological change—automation of production processes and consolidation of parts. We collect detailed shop-floor data from four semiconductor firms with different levels of automation and consolidation. Using the O*NET survey instrument, we collect novel task data for operator laborers that contains process-step level skill requirements, including operations and control, near vision, and dexterity requirements. We then use an engineering process model to separate the effects of the distinct technological changes on these process tasks and operator skill requirements. Within an occupation, we show that aggregate measures of technological change can mask the opposing skill biases of multiple simultaneous technological changes. In our empirical context, automation polarizes skill demand as routine, codifiable tasks requiring low and medium skills are executed by machines instead of humans, while the remaining and newly created human tasks tend to require low and high skills. Consolidation converges skill demand as formerly divisible low and high skill tasks are transformed into a single indivisible task with medium skill requirements and higher cost of failure. We conclude by developing a new theory for how the separability of tasks mediates the effect of technology change on skill demand by changing the divisibility of labor.

Labour Costs and the Size of Government

AbstractGiven inelastic demand for labour‐intensive public services, the size of government depends positively on labour costs. OECD data exhibit a strong statistical association between government size and the business‐sector labour share of income. When the labour share is instrumented with measures of technological change, institutional variation and predetermined data it continues to positively impact government size. In contrast, transfer spending is unaffected by the labour share. The evidence is consistent with the idea that the recent decline in the labour share has contributed to the slowdown in the growth of government witnessed in much of the post‐war era.

Knowing Where to Go: The Knowledge Foundation for Investments in Energy Innovation

Energy policies around the world are increasingly focussed on promoting the transition towards a more sustainable energy system. Evidence-based decision-making regarding such policies need a solid knowledge foundation. We take stock of our existing knowledge in terms of the statistics and data that forms the basis for research, policy and business decision making regarding investments in the energy sector. The available measurement techniques and data on energy production and investments inform such debates, yet we call for improvements. A number of challenges relate to a true identification of the sector, the measurement of technological change and industry dynamics, and a comprehensive overview of the investments and investors in this sector. We argue that especially activities and barriers regarding investments and investors should be thought into the knowledge foundation we need for wise decision-making. This information is important not only in a research and policy context, but also for practical reasons. Potentially, the quality and amount of statistics may create virtuous or viscous cycles of investment behaviour because investment areas only covered by weak statistical evidence may receive limited attention from investors, which may in turn render fewer incentives for producing better statistics.

Technology mapping and the evaluation of technical change

In this paper a model of technological evolution based on a twin characteristics representation and on a population approach has been used to discuss the possibility of obtaining a single measure of technical change which could be used for all possible types of evaluation. Possible changes for a technological population include changes in position, changes in density, corresponding to a change in the intensity and type of competition; changes in the shape of the technological population corresponding to the formation of particular trajectories, or to the fragmentation of an existing population following from a process of specialization. In view of these evolutionary trends it is considered impossible to obtain a unique measure of technological change which is useful for all types of evaluation. The heterogeneity/dispersion of the technological population and the presence of qualitative change limit the accuracy and the meaning of measurements of technical change. This means that only in particular circumstances (e.g. long periods of observation and populations of unchanging shape, or developments along a particular trajectory) would such measurements be reasonably accurate and meaningful.

Did the Butler Really Do It? Examining the Impact of Technology on Hospital Cost Growth

We examine the extent to which hospital technologies are associated with growth in U.S. hospital costs. We create an index capturing the availability of a range of technologies in 2214 hospitals and track over the period 1996-2007, along with financial information from Medicare Cost Reports. We find that our measures of technology availability are positively correlated with hospital costs, consistent with the view that technology is an important driver of costs. However, we find that even controlling for a large number of technologies leaves a significant portion of the growth in U.S. hospital costs unexplained. While this may at least in part reflect effects of technology not captured by our measures, it suggests that the drivers of hospital cost growth go significantly beyond commonly conceptualized measures of technological change. Finally, we identify innovations that are cost increasing or cost-saving, and the time pattern of these effects.

Trade in Services: IT and Task Content

In this paper we investigate the determinants of the dramatic increase in services tradability focusing on the extensive margin of the phenomenon. We use balance sheet and rm-level service trade information over the period 1995-2005 provided by the National Bank of Belgium and we merge it with information on the evolution of information technology use and tasks performed by workers from the qualication and career survey provided by the BIBB-IAB. We show that technological change, measured either by the more intensive use of information technologies or by changes in the task content of jobs, has substantially contributed to the increase in the number of service-trading rms. Interestingly, we nd evidence of a churning eect. While technological change has induced net entry into service trading, it has also increased the likelihood of both gross entry and exit of rms. Furthermore, our evidence suggests that due to the peculiar nature of services provision, the change in the tasks content of jobs is a better measure of technological change than the use of information technologies. Our results are robust to controlling for service trade liberalization and oshoring.

Total Factor Productivity Growth: Indian Ports in the Era of Globalisation

Globalisation has led to the increasing importance of port performance. Productivity and efficiency are the two important concepts in measuring performance. The present study aims to assess the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of the Indian port sector. TFP is a measure of technological change in industry. This study shows that ports in India are becoming more capital intensive in the post-liberalisation period, and except one, the rest of all Indian ports came out with statistically significant TFP changes in last quarter century. The study also finds that, contrary to popular belief, the economic climate in post-reform period has yet to make any substantial impact on the performance of Indian ports in terms of the most popular measure of performance, TFP.

Technological change in industrial development. A case study of the Korean man-made fibres industry

This research is concerned with the role of technological change in the process of industrial development. The principal focus is on the man-made fibres sector and the role of technological change as a driving force for industrial development. Different measures of technological change are considered, and both quantitative and qualitative approaches to its analysis are discussed. Among these, total factor productivity (TFP) is introduced as a convenient measure of technological progress and the measurement is used to consider data in the Korean context. The contribution of technological change is considered in terms of technology spillovers from the man-made fibres sector to other realms of the economy.

Regional Skill Structure and the Diffusion of Technology

This paper examines the relationship between the skill structure of states’ manufacturing sectors and technological change. Various measures of technological change are utilized including private and public R&D stocks, high-tech capital, recent capital, and the spatial spillover effects attributed to R&D stocks. We analyze the impact of changes in technology on spatial wage-bill shares, utilizing panel data for the 48 contiguous states over three sequential five-year periods. Overall, the results show a positive connection between skill upgrading and technological change. In other words, we find that states that adopt new technologies have more skilled workforces. Of particular interest, we find that publicly funded R&D stocks from neighboring states play a significant role in skill upgrading. The general implication of this finding is that geographic proximity is key to diffusing government-funded technology that enhances state economic performance. Our results strengthen the case for regional cooperation among states in developing policies to attract both private and public R&D capital.

Total factor productivity and the measurement of technological change

Abstract. TFP is interpreted in the literature in different, mutually contradictory ways. Changes in TFP are shown to measure not technological change, only the super‐normal returns to investing in such change – returns that exceed the full opportunity cost of the activity. Thus, in the limit, technological change can proceed with unchanged TFP. Measuring the effects of technological change instead requires counterfactual estimates. Reasons why changes in TFP are imperfect measures of super normal returns are also studied – reasons connected with the timing of output responses, the treatment of R&D in the national accounts, the omission of resource inputs, and two types of aggregation.

Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth: What is the Relationship?

The relationship between productivity, technology and economic growth has been debated extensively in the endogenous growth, growth accounting, New Economy and policy literature. This paper briefly surveys the literature on total factor productivity (TFP) calculations – the various techniques and problems associated with it. We argue that TFP is not a measure of technological change and only under ideal conditions does it measure the supernormal profits associated with technological change. The critical driving force of economic growth is not the super normal profits that technological change generates but rather the continuous creation of opportunities for further technological development. Six illustrations of when TFP fails to correctly measure these super normal profits are provided. A version Carlaw and Lipsey’s (2003b) model of endogenous general purpose technology‐ driven growth is then utilized to make some progress toward answering Prescott’s (1998) call for a theory of TFP. The model is used to simulate artificial data and connect theoretical assumptions of returns to scale and resource costs to the conditions under which TFP miss‐measures the actual growth of technological knowledge.

Information and communication technologies and changes in skills

The research measures the diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and changes in skills in the UK during the 1980s. Using input‐output data and the Census of Population, the indicators are constructed according to 25 reclassified industrial divisions for the whole economy. These indicators show that accompanying the diffusion of ICTs there was a shift from motor skills (relatively decreasing) to cognitive skills (relatively increasing). Diffusion of ICT during the 1980s is captured through the amount of computer equipment usage. The skill changes are examined through multi‐faceted aspects: occupational change; educational improvement; increased female participation; and employment change by industry. The research sheds light on two issues analysed in relation to technological change and skills change: measurement of technological change should be considered as a complex pattern rather than a monotonically increasing pattern; and skill changes should be examined through multi‐faceted aspects rather than any single aspect.

Technology generation, technology use and economic growth

Technological change is often measured by economists and economic historians through productivity growth, but this article argues that technological change and productivity change are conceptually different. This proposition is demonstrated by considering the diffusion of technologies first within industries, and second across industries. In both cases, economic growth reaches higher levels when the technology becomes diffused, not when it is being generated via major technological breakthroughs. This emerges through high ratios of patents (as a measure of technological change) to industrial production when countries undergo their industrial revolutions. Finally I compare across countries, to show that leader countries developed the technologies before they developed education systems to extend them, whereas some catching-up countries probably drew on their depth of human capital to absorb new technologies from the leaders.

Does the Solow Residual Actually Measure Changes in Technology?

Real business cycle models purport to explain the business cycle as the result of technological change. This paper shows that the commonly used measure of technological change, the Solow residual, does not capture changes in the technology of the production function. The model used in this paper is within the framework of models described in Hansen & Sargent (1990, 1991). Technological change is modeled as a change in the value of one of the 'deep' technology parameters in the production function. The Solow residual is incapable of capturing the effects of this sort of technological change. There is no consistent relationship between the direction and size of a technological change and the sign and size of the Solow residual. The Solow residual often moves in the wrong direction, e.g. a negative technological shock causes a positive residual. Even when the Solow residual has the right sign, its size is not consistent with the size of the technological shock, e.g. a larger positive change in technology does not necessarily cause a larger positive Solow residual.

The Role of Capital Intensity and Technology Usage in Upgrading Skills in the U.S. Labor Market

This article examines the relationship between different measures of technological change and the change in the wage (employment) share of skilled workers. The capital/output ratio and the share of computer stock in total capital stock are used to examine the effect of both capital deepening and capital quality on work force structure. The results suggest that both capital deepening and investment in computers are positively correlated to the change in the wage share of skilled workers. Comparing the magnitude of different capital investment variables suggests that computer investment has a stronger effect on the change in the wage share of skilled workers than does noncomputer capital investment. In addition, this article examines the effect of other advanced manufacturing technologies, such as flexible manufacturing systems, robots, networks, and numerically controlled machines, on the share of skilled workers. The results indicate a positive effect of these technologies on the work force skill mix and that the effect is stronger over longer periods.

Efficiency and Technological Change in the U.S. Brewing Industry

This study demonstrates that the measurement of technological change and economic efficiency are tightly linked. Efficiency measures may depend on carefully controlling for technological change, while tests of technological change may be sensitive to empirical model specifications. Moreover, the study underlines Solow's (1994) and Romer's (1994) admonition that econometricians should pay attention to industry and institutional evidence in building models of technological change. The empirical results presented here suggest that there has been substantial technological change in the U.S. brewing industry from 1950 to 1992. This occurred in the form of a dramatic shift in technology beginning with the introduction of super breweries in about 1972. There has also been a substantial increase in scale economies, which undoubtedly caused many inefficiently small firms to exit the industry during the 1960s and 1970s. Further results suggest that a more complete specification of technological change and the stochastic nature of the frontier production function leads to higher and more tenable estimates of efficiency.

Patent statistics as a measure of technological change

Patent statistics as a measure of technological change