Technology mapping and the evaluation of technical change

Abstract

In this paper a model of technological evolution based on a twin characteristics representation and on a population approach has been used to discuss the possibility of obtaining a single measure of technical change which could be used for all possible types of evaluation. Possible changes for a technological population include changes in position, changes in density, corresponding to a change in the intensity and type of competition; changes in the shape of the technological population corresponding to the formation of particular trajectories, or to the fragmentation of an existing population following from a process of specialization. In view of these evolutionary trends it is considered impossible to obtain a unique measure of technological change which is useful for all types of evaluation. The heterogeneity/dispersion of the technological population and the presence of qualitative change limit the accuracy and the meaning of measurements of technical change. This means that only in particular circumstances (e.g. long periods of observation and populations of unchanging shape, or developments along a particular trajectory) would such measurements be reasonably accurate and meaningful.