Measurement Of Natural Selection Research Articles

Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction.

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increasepredictability.

Global diversity and balancing selection of 23 leading Plasmodium falciparum candidate vaccine antigens.

Investigation of the diversity of malaria parasite antigens can help prioritize and validate them as vaccine candidates and identify the most common variants for inclusion in vaccine formulations. Studies of vaccine candidates of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, have focused on a handful of well-known antigens, while several others have never been studied. Here we examine the global diversity and population structure of leading vaccine candidate antigens of P. falciparum using the MalariaGEN Pf3K (version 5.1) resource, comprising more than 2600 genomes from 15 malaria endemic countries. A stringent variant calling pipeline was used to extract high quality antigen gene ‘haplotypes’ from the global dataset and a new R-package named VaxPack was used to streamline population genetic analyses. In addition, a newly developed algorithm that enables spatial averaging of selection pressure on 3D protein structures was applied to the dataset. We analysed the genes encoding 23 leading and novel candidate malaria vaccine antigens including csp, trap, eba175, ama1, rh5, and CelTOS. Our analysis shows that current malaria vaccine formulations are based on rare haplotypes and thus may have limited efficacy against natural parasite populations. High levels of diversity with evidence of balancing selection was detected for most of the erythrocytic and pre-erythrocytic antigens. Measures of natural selection were then mapped to 3D protein structures to predict targets of functional antibodies. For some antigens, geographical variation in the intensity and distribution of these signals on the 3D structure suggests adaptation to different human host or mosquito vector populations. This study provides an essential framework for the diversity of P. falciparum antigens to be considered in the design of the next generation of malaria vaccines.

Reproductive success of captively bred and naturally spawned Chinook salmon colonizing newly accessible habitat

Captively reared animals can provide an immediate demographic boost in reintroduction programs, but may also reduce the fitness of colonizing populations. Construction of a fish passage facility at Landsburg Diversion Dam on the Cedar River, WA, USA, provided a unique opportunity to explore this trade-off. We thoroughly sampled adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) at the onset of colonization (2003–2009), constructed a pedigree from genotypes at 10 microsatellite loci, and calculated reproductive success (RS) as the total number of returning adult offspring. Hatchery males were consistently but not significantly less productive than naturally spawned males (range in relative RS: 0.70–0.90), but the pattern for females varied between years. The sex ratio was heavily biased toward males; therefore, inclusion of the hatchery males increased the risk of a genetic fitness cost with little demographic benefit. Measurements of natural selection indicated that larger salmon had higher RS than smaller fish. Fish that arrived early to the spawning grounds tended to be more productive than later fish, although in some years, RS was maximized at intermediate dates. Our results underscore the importance of natural and sexual selection in promoting adaptation during reintroductions.

NATURAL SELECTION ON FLORAL TRAITS THROUGH MALE AND FEMALE FUNCTION IN WILD POPULATIONS OF THE HETEROSTYLOUS DAFFODILNARCISSUS TRIANDRUS

Measurements of natural selection in hermaphrodite populations require the analysis of performance through both female and male sex functions. Here, we investigate selection on three floral traits: flower number, flower length, and corona width through both sex functions in natural populations of the tristylous daffodil Narcissus triandrus. Selection through female function was examined in six populations, and in two of these we also estimated male selection gradients using multilocus microsatellite genotyping of parents and offspring. We detected significant directional selection for flower number through female function, and significant stabilizing selection for corona width and flower length through male function. Variation in male reproductive success was strongly influenced by the distance between mates and was significantly higher than variation in female reproductive success in one population, a result consistent with Bateman's principle. However, variation through both sex functions was similar in the other population and there was a significant negative correlation between female and male fitness indicating sex-specific trade-offs in reproductive success. Selection on floral design in N. triandrus was stronger through male than female function probably because floral morphology plays an important role in promoting effective cross-pollen transfer in populations of this heterostylous species.

Ornament evolution in dragon lizards: multiple gains and widespread losses reveal a complex history of evolutionary change

The expression in females of ornaments thought to be the target of sexual selection in males is a long-standing puzzle. Two main hypotheses are proposed to account for the existence of conspicuous ornaments in both sexes (mutual ornamentation): genetic correlation between the sexes and sexual selection on females as well as males. We examined the pattern of ornament gains and losses in 240 species of dragon lizards (Agamidae) in order to elucidate the relative contribution of these two factors in the evolution of mutual ornamentation. In addition, we tested whether the type of shelter used by lizards to avoid predators predicts the evolutionary loss or constraint of ornament expression. We found evidence that the origin of female ornaments is broadly consistent with the predictions of the genetic correlation hypothesis. Ornaments appear congruently in both sexes with some lineages subsequently evolving male biased sexual dimorphism, apparently through the process of natural selection for reduced ornamentation in females. Nevertheless, ornaments have also frequently evolved in both sexes independently. This suggests that genetic correlations are potentially weak for several lineages and sexual selection on females is responsible for at least some evolutionary change in this group. Unexpectedly, we found that the evolutionary loss of some ornaments is concentrated more in males than females and this trend cannot be fully explained by our measures of natural selection.

When environmental variation short-circuits natural selection

The development of a coherent framework for measuring natural selection was one of the major advances in evolutionary biology in the 1970s and 1980s. However, for evolution to occur, natural selection must act on underlying genetic variation, whereas most measurements of natural selection are limited to phenotypes. Two new papers now show that environmentally induced covariances between phenotypes and fitness can frequently lead to the systematic overestimation of the strength of natural selection.

Color-Pattern Variation in Lake Erie Water Snakes: Prediction and Measurement of Natural Selection

Color-Pattern Variation in Lake Erie Water Snakes: Prediction and Measurement of Natural Selection

Ecological Character Displacement in Darwin's Finches

Character displacement resulting from interspecific competition has been extremely difficult to demonstrate. The problem was addressed with a study of Darwin's ground finches (Geospiza). Beak sizes of populations of G. fortis and G. fuliginosa in sympatry and allopatry were compared by a procedure that controls for any possible effects on morphology of variation among locations in food supply. The results provide strong evidence for character displacement. Measurement of natural selection in a population of G. fortis on an island (Daphne) lacking a resident population of G. fuliginosa shows how exploitation of G. fuliginosa foods affects the differential survival of G. fortis phenotypes.