Measure Of Geomagnetic Activity Research Articles

Associations between solar and geomagnetic activity and cognitive function in the Normative Aging study

BackgroundStudies show that changes in solar and geomagnetic activity (SGA) influence melatonin secretion and the autonomic nervous system. We evaluated associations between solar and geomagnetic activity and cognitive function in the Normative Aging Study from 1992 to 2013. MethodsWe used logistic and linear generalized estimating equations and regressions to evaluate the associations between moving averages of sunspot number (SSN) and Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity) and a binary measure for Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores (≤25 or > 25) and six other cognitive tests as continuous measures, combined into one global composite score and considered separately. ResultsA one-IQR increase in same-day SSN and Kp index were associated with 17% (95% CI: 3%, 34%) and 19% (95% CI: 4%, 36%) increases in the odds of low MMSE score. We observed small increases in the global cognitive score with increasing SSN, although we observed decreases specifically in relation to the backwards digit span test. ConclusionsPeriods of high SGA were associated with cognitive function. SGA may not equally impact all aspects of cognitive function, as evidenced by differences in associations observed for the MMSE, global cognitive score, and individual cognitive tests. Given that much of the pathology of cognitive decline in the elderly remains unexplained, studies specifically targeting decline and with longer follow-up periods are warranted.

Multi‐Hour‐Ahead Dst Index Prediction Using Multi‐Fidelity Boosted Neural Networks

AbstractThe Disturbance storm time (Dst) index has been widely used as a proxy for the ring current intensity, and therefore as a measure of geomagnetic activity. It is derived by measurements from four ground magnetometers in the geomagnetic equatorial region. We present a new model for predicting Dst with a lead time between 1 and 6 hr. The model is first developed using a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network that is trained using solar wind parameters. The uncertainty of the Dst model is then estimated by using the Accurate and Reliable Uncertainty Estimate method (Camporeale & Carè, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2021034623). Finally, a multi‐fidelity boosting method is developed in order to enhance the accuracy of the model and reduce its associated uncertainty. It is shown that the developed model can predict Dst 6 hr ahead with a root‐mean‐square‐error of 13.54 nT. This is significantly better than a persistence model or a single GRU model.

Associations between solar and geomagnetic activity and peripheral white blood cells in the Normative Aging Study.

It has been hypothesized that solar and geomagnetic activity can affect the function of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) and melatonin secretion, both of which may influence immune response. We investigated the association between solar geomagnetic activity and white blood cell counts in the Normative Aging Study (NAS) Cohort between 2000 and 2013. Linear mixed effects models with moving day averages ranging from 0 to 28 days were used to evaluate the effects of solar activity measures, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and sunspot number (SSN), and a measure of geomagnetic activity, K Index (K), on total white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil, monocytes, lymphocyte, eosinophil, and basophil concentrations. After adjusting for demographic and health-related factors, there were consistently significant associations between IMF, SSN, and Kp index, with reductions in total WBC, neutrophils, and basophil counts. These associations were stronger with longer moving averages. The associations were similar after adjusting for ambient air particulate pollution and particle radioactivity. Our findings suggest that periods of increased solar and geomagnetic activity result in lower WBC, neutrophil, and basophil counts that may contribute to mil mild immune suppression.

The Challenge Posed by Geomagnetic Activity to Electric Power Reliability: Evidence From England and Wales.

This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged the reliability of the electric power system during part of the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Operations by National Grid in England and Wales are examined over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 March 2005. This paper examines the relationship between measures of geomagnetic activity and a metric of challenged electric power reliability known as the net imbalance volume (NIV). Measured in megawatt hours, NIV represents the sum of all energy deployments initiated by the system operator to balance the electric power system. The relationship between geomagnetic activity and NIV is assessed using a multivariate econometric model. The model was estimated using half-hour settlement data over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 December 2004. The results indicate that geomagnetic activity had a demonstrable effect on NIV over the sample period. Based on the parameter estimates, out-of-sample predictions of NIV were generated for each half hour over the period of 1 January to 31 March 2005. Consistent with the existence of a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and the electricity market imbalance, the root-mean-square error of the out-of-sample predictions of NIV is smaller; that is, the predictions are more accurate, when the statistically significant estimated effects of geomagnetic activity are included as drivers in the predictions.

Storm phase–partitioned rates and budgets of global Alfvénic energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow

We review the role of Alfvén waves in magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling during geomagnetically active periods, and use three years of high-latitude FAST satellite observations of inertial Alfvén waves (IAWs) together with 55 years of tabulated measurements of the Dst index to answer the following questions: 1) How do global rates of IAW-related energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow during storm main phase and storm recovery phase compare with global rates during geomagnetically quiet periods? 2) What fraction of net IAW-related energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow is associated with storm main phase and storm recovery phase; that is, how are these budgets partitioned by storm phase? We find that during the period between October 1996 and November 1999, rates of IAW-related energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow during geomagnetically quiet periods are increased by factors of 4–5 during storm phases. We also find that ∼62–68% of the net Alfvénic energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow in the auroral ionosphere occurred during storm main and recovery phases, despite storm phases comprising only 31% of this period. In particular storm main phase, which comprised less than 14% of the three-year period, was associated with roughly a third of the total Alfvénic energy input and ion outflow in the auroral ionosphere. Measures of geomagnetic activity during the IAW study period fall near corresponding 55-year median values, from which we conclude that each storm phase is associated with a fraction of total Alfvénic energy, precipitation, and outflow budgets in the auroral ionosphere that is, in the long term, probably as great or greater than the fraction associated with geomagnetic quiescence for all times except possibly those when geomagnetic activity is protractedly weak, such as solar minimum. These results suggest that the budgets of IAW-related energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow are roughly equally partitioned by geomagnetic storm phase.

Assessment of extreme values in geomagnetic and geoelectric field variations for Canada

AbstractDisturbances of the geomagnetic field produced by space weather events can have an impact on power systems and other critical infrastructure. To mitigate these risks it is important to determine the extreme values of geomagnetic activity that can occur. More than 40 years of 1 min magnetic data recorded at 13 Canadian geomagnetic observatories have been analyzed to evaluate extreme levels in geomagnetic and geoelectric activities in different locations of Canada. The hourly ranges of geomagnetic field variations and hourly maximum in rate of change of the magnetic variations have been used as measures of geomagnetic activity. Geoelectric activity is estimated by the hourly peak amplitude of the geoelectric fields calculated with the use of Earth resistivity models specified for different locations in Canada. A generalized extreme value distribution was applied to geomagnetic and geoelectric indices to evaluate extreme geomagnetic and geoelectric disturbances, which could happen once per 50 and once per 100 years with 99% confidence interval. Influence of geomagnetic latitude and Earth resistivity models on the results for the extreme geomagnetic and geoelectric activity is discussed. The extreme values provide criteria for assessing the vulnerability of power systems and other technology to geomagnetic activity for design or mitigation purposes.

Do solar cycles influence giant cell arteritis and rheumatoid arthritis incidence?

ObjectiveTo examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on the incidence of giant cell arteritis (GCA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsWe used data from patients with GCA (1950–2004) and...

Energetic particle precipitation in ECHAM5/MESSy1 – Part 1: Downward transport of upper atmospheric NO<sub>x</sub> produced by low energy electrons

Abstract. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 has been extended by processes that parameterise particle precipitation. Several types of particle precipitation that directly affect NOy and HOx concentrations in the middle atmosphere are accounted for and discussed in a series of papers. In the companion paper, the ECHAM5/MESSy1 solar proton event parametrisation is discussed, while in the current paper we focus on low energy electrons (LEE) that produce NOx in the upper atmosphere. For the flux of LEE NOx into the top of the model domain a novel technique which can be applied to most atmospheric chemistry general circulation models has been developed and is presented here. The technique is particularly useful for models with an upper boundary between the stratopause and mesopause and therefore cannot directly incorporate upper atmospheric NOx production. The additional NOx source parametrisation is based on a measure of geomagnetic activity, the Ap index, which has been shown to be a good proxy for LEE NOx interannual variations. HALOE measurements of LEE NOx that has been transported into the stratosphere are used to develop a scaling function which yields a flux of NOx that is applied to the model top. We describe the implementation of the parametrisation as the submodel SPACENOX in ECHAM5/MESSy1 and discuss the results from test simulations. The NOx enhancements are shown to be in good agreement with independent measurements. Ap index data is available for almost one century, thus the parametrisation is suitable for simulations of the recent climate.

Effects of station relocation in the aa index

Earlier studies have shown that the long‐term measure of geomagnetic activity, the aa index, is inhomogeneous and depicts an excessively large (about 12 nT) centennial increase. This has preliminarily been suggested to be due to possible station intercalibration problems in 1957 when the northern aa station was changed from Abinger to Hartland. In the present paper we show that the 3‐hourly aa index time series is not uniform but includes systematic jump‐like changes in the distribution of the various aa values with each change of stations in 1920, 1926, 1957, and 1980. We estimate how large a change to the aa index was caused by each particular aa value. We find that the changes to the aa index due to different ranges of activity are smooth and fairly similar for all jumps. In 1957 the largest aa values had, at the expense of more moderate aa values, a relatively larger contribution to the jump than in other station changes because the relative station coefficient was somewhat larger in 1957, leading to larger spreading and a higher average level of aa values. However, while this difference could cause a slight overestimate of the aa values, we find that the total changes in the aa index over jumps are in agreement, in both sign and magnitude, with the solar cycle variation. So it is unlikely that the excessive increase of the aa index would be due to erroneously estimated station coefficients.

The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Pc3 Geomagnetic Activity over Canada in 2000, as a Guide to Planning the Times of Aeromagnetic Surveys

Geomagnetic activity affects aeromagnetic surveys. Geomagnetic variations are quite complex and can be quantified in different ways. A measure of geomagnetic activity that is useful for planning aeromagnetic surveys is the Pc3 pulsation index developed by the Australian Space Weather Agency. Purposeful to developing guidelines for planning aeromagnetic surveys in Canada, we study the variations in Pc3 index amplitude over Canada in 2000. This study shows distinct patterns associated with the sub-auroral zone, the auroral zone, and the polar cap. Average Pc3 index activity is higher during the months of February, July, September, and November in the auroral and sub-auroral zones. The station in the polar cap exhibits maximum activity near midday during the summer months. Detailed analysis of a magnetic storm shows that Pc3 index amplitude during the beginning of the solar storm is least important at the polar cap. The mean Pc3 index also relates to solar wind parameters such as the solar wind velocity and the vertical polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. Analysis of the morning maximum of the Pc3 index observed in the auroral zone can be used to develop guidelines for planning aeromagnetic surveys in Canada and other areas of the world affected by auroral zones.

IMF polarity and annual variations of the Dst index

Summary. The annual variations of the Dst index were studied separately for the towards and away polarities of the interplanetary magnetic field. It was found that: (a) the towards polarity is associated with a spring minimum and the away polarity with an autumn minimum of Dst; (b) that both polarities exhibit an asymmetry between the solstices, the Dst values for the December solstice being more negative than those for the June solstice; and (c) that a shift of the annual minima in Dst to earlier times with increasing level of activity seems to exist, irrespective of IMF polarity. The first effect is related to the similar effect found earlier in other measures of geomagnetic activity and is assumed to be caused by varying energy transfer from the solar wind into the magnetosphere depending on the sign of the north-south component of the IMF; the second effect is compatible with a proposed annual variation in the size of the magnetosphere, the reason of which is still unknown; and the third suggests to us that the solar magnetospheric coordinate system might not be adequate for describing the interaction between the IMF and the magnetosphere during disturbed times.

World-wide cosmic ray variations, 1937-1952

Annual means from continuous registration of cosmic-ray ionization at four stations from 1937 to 1952 show a variation of nearly four per cent, which is similar at all stations and which is negatively correlated with sunspot numbers. This variation in cosmic-ray intensity is quite similar for the annual means of all days, international magnetic quiet days, and international magnetic disturbed days, which indicates that it is not due to transient decreases accompanying some magnetic storms. Although the cosmic-ray intensity at some stations is affected by meteorological conditions, it is shown that on the average the cosmic-ray changes observed at Huancayo agree well with those at other stations. From an analysis of the variability of daily means at Huancayo and a sample comparison with Simpson's neutron data, it is concluded that the cosmic-ray ionization at Huancayo is very little affected by meteorological effects. Through a comparison with Neher's balloon observations, evidence is provided to indicate the reliability of cosmic-ray results at Huancayo over long periods of time. The relation between cosmic-ray decreases and some measures of geomagnetic activity is indicated, and it is shown that the major transient decreases in cosmic-ray intensity occur during magnetic disturbance. Graphs are included which depict the daily means of cosmic-ray intensity at Huancayo for all available data, 1937–1953.