Measure Of Credibility Research Articles

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa

This paper investigates the key factors that explain the documented decline in the exchange rate pass-through in South Africa over the past two decades, which coincides with the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime. The paper conjectures, in line with the literature, that this outcome is largely due to improved monetary policy credibility. To do this, it first documents the factors that explain monetary policy credibility. Using the standard deviation of individual inflation forecasts as a measure of monetary policy credibility, its shows that the latter is negatively affected by the level of inflation itself, monetary policy uncertainty, and a measure of the unobserved stochastic volatility of inflation. The second phase proceeds by analyzing the determinants of the pass-through using the monetary policy credibility index derived from the first phase. The paper confirms the remarkable achievement that, despite the many shocks that the economy has witnessed, the declining pass-through is indeed explained by the improving monetary policy credibility.

Baseline Analysis: The Epistemology of Scenario Support

Foresight professionals have been developing and sharing scenarios about the future for a half century now. They argue that the only way to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties about the future is to offer multiple futures (scenarios) rather than single-valued predictions. Nevertheless, most forecasters still make predictions because the process of supporting them with evidence is well known and similar to supporting conclusions in history and science. This article presents an argument for supporting scenarios using evidence through a process of critically thinking about the assumptions required to support the most likely future. Using this more transparent approach allows other professionals to understand, discuss, and critique the support for scenarios as they do the conclusions in other disciplines. That ability to peer review futures work could build the foundation for a measure of credibility and legitimacy that those other disciplines enjoy.

EXAMINING THE CORRELATIONS OF GOODWILL WITH COMPETENCE AND TRUSTWORTHINESS A TEST IN THE PHILIPPINE SETTING

With the controversies and challenges surrounding the concept of goodwill as a dimension of ethos, the current study aimed to test its correlations with competence and trustworthiness which have always been deemed as more concrete and steadier ethos facets. After administering the survey, which was composed of Source Credibility Measures (McCroskey & Teven, 1999) and an open-ended question, to 167 students of University of the Philippines Diliman, the results suggest that there were moderate to strong correlations between and among the three ethos factors, suggesting their “intercorrelatedness.” More than reaffirming the position of goodwill as a measure of credibility, the findings disclose that the major factor affecting ethos may be cross-cultural in character. Keywords: , , ,,

Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis

A new measure of credibility is constructed as a function of the differential between observed inflation and some estimate of the inflation rate that the central bank targets. The target is assumed to be met flexibly. Credibility is calculated for a large group of both advanced and emerging countries from 1980 to 2014. Financial crises reduce central bank credibility and central banks with strong institutional feaures tend to do better when hit by a shock of the magnitude of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The VIX, adopting an inflation target and central bank transparency, are the most reliable determinants of credibility. Similarly, real economic growth has a significant influence on central bank credibility even in inflation targeting economies.

Central Bank Credibility: Determinants and Measurement. A Cross-Country Study

This paper proposes a new measure of central bank credibility — the credibility index calculated on the basis of the key determinants of central bank credibility. The index is compiled for 9 countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Chile, Brazil, Turkey, United Kingdom and Sweden , for the years 1999–2007. The results are cross-checked with other credibility measures based on inflation expectations of two groups of economic agents. The analysis demonstrates that the credibility index may be considered a relevant and consistent credibility measure.

An intelligent quality-based approach to fusing multi-source probabilistic information

Our objective here is to obtain quality-fused values from multiple sources of probabilistic distributions, where quality is related to the lack of uncertainty in the fused value and the use of credible sources. We first introduce a vector representation for a probability distribution. With the aid of the Gini formulation of entropy, we show how the norm of the vector provides a measure of the certainty, i.e., information, associated with a probability distribution. We look at two special cases of fusion for source inputs those that are maximally uncertain and certain. We provide a measure of credibility associated with subsets of sources. We look at the issue of finding the highest quality fused value from the weighted aggregations of source provided probability distributions.

Public Relations vs. Advertising

This study aims to examine and understand the effectiveness and credibility of advertising and public relations in the form of editorial coverage. This study involves three main groups, namely prominent practitioners in public relations and advertising as well as independent party who does not belong to either of these categories of practitioners. Guided by the Source Credibility Theory, this exploratory study emphasises on key measure of credibility in finding the overall effectiveness of public relations over advertising. Findings of this study provide ground for constructive argument on the co-relations, effectiveness, estrangement and togetherness of the much debated topic of public relations versus advertising. The main basis of the comparison is based on credibility, and the data focused on three central themes: contribution to brand knowledge and brand image, adequacy of public relations and advertising, and concerns of public relations and advertising practitioners. In short, both public relations and advertising can employ contextual strategy by working together to reach consumers in the most creative and tactical manner.

Surprising Events and Surprising Opinions

The academic debate concerning public opinion about war focuses upon two explanations: cost/benefits and partisan cues. Both sides of this debate use laboratory experiments to estimate the influence of events and cues, but Gelpi is notable for using a well-designed experiment to compare the theories simultaneously. He argues that his results support the cost/benefits explanation as “surprising events” that counter individuals’ prior attitudes have significantly more effect than “surprising opinions” upon people’s attitudes toward the Iraq War. His analysis, however, considers only the direction, but not the strength, of people’s attitudes toward the war. Additionally, the measure of source credibility for determining the influence of cues is not optimal. When the analysis accounts for attitude strength and uses a better measure of source credibility, the results show little support for the effect of surprising events and markedly greater support for the influence of partisan cues.

Examining First- and Second-Order Factor Structures for News Credibility

The construct of news credibility has been of interest to communication scholars for decades, yet researchers have struggled to develop a measure of news credibility that demonstrates a reliable factor structure and construct validity. This study uses confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and discriminant analysis to evaluate Abdulla and colleagues’ (2004) measure of news credibility. Results indicate that although the factor structure of the measure is replicable, the measure exhibits significant concerns related to discriminant validity. A revised measurement model employing a second-order factor for the news credibility scale that eliminates the discriminant validity concerns is proposed, and the implications of second-order factors in measurement models are discussed.

Silence of the leaders: alcohol policy-making in Malawi

This paper draws on the advocacy coalition framework and uses content analysis to examine policy arguments and counterarguments over new legislation governing production, distribution and sale of alcohol in Malawi amidst growing concerns about alcohol-related public health problems and moral decay. We analyzed contents and claims reported in major newspapers (50 papers) and technical reports (2) spanning 2010–2013. Ironically, the findings of the study reveal the beverage industry in Malawi has proceeded by publicly endorsing the proposal for new legislation and openly backing the position of the pro-regulation coalition to restore ‘sanity’ to the nation. At the same time, leading actors in the beverage industry have artfully deployed a mixture of economic and nationalistic sentiments and argumentative crossovers to deflect policy narratives of opponents advocating for tighter alcohol legislation and depicting themselves as an earnest partner in the policy-making process; retaining for themselves a measure of credibility on the alcohol policy-making platform. The paper concludes by underscoring the contingent nature of policy argumentation and the role played by economic and cultural factors in shaping policy processes in Malawi.

Central Bank Credibility and the Expectations Channel: Evidence Based on a New Credibility Index

This article investigates the relationship between central bank credibility and the volatility of the key monetary policy instrument. Two main contributions are proposed. First, we propose a time-varying measure of central bank credibility based on the gap between inflation expectations and the official inflation target. While this new index addresses the main limitations of the existing indicators, it also appears particularly suited to assess the monetary experiences of a large sample of inflation-targeting emerging countries. Second, by means of EGARCH estimations, we formally prove the existence of a negative effect of credibility on the volatility of the short-term interest rate. Thus, in line with the expectations channel of monetary policy, the higher the credibility of the central bank, the lower the need to move its instruments to efficiently fulfill its objective.

Central Bank Credibility and the Expectations Channel: Evidence Based on a New Credibility Index

This article investigates the relationship between central bank credibility and the volatility of the key monetary policy instrument. Two main contributions are proposed. First, we propose a time-varying measure of central bank credibility based on the gap between inflation expectations and the official inflation target. While this new index addresses the main limitations of the existing indicators, it also appears particularly suited to assess the monetary experiences of a large sample of inflation-targeting emerging countries. Second, by means of EGARCH estimations, we formally prove the existence of a negative effect of credibility on the volatility of the short-term interest rate. Thus, in line with the expectations channel of monetary policy, the higher the credibility of the central bank, the lower the need to move its instruments to efficiently fulfill its objective.

VC-based confidence and credibility for support vector machines

Assigning a confidence and a credibility measures is a challenging stochastic inference problem. Some algorithms only yield the predicted value without evaluating the measure of confidence or credibility over the decision. Support vector machines (SVM) is one algorithm that showed state-of-the-art decision accuracy but lacks a measure of confidence and credibility over the decisions. In this paper we propose a new confidence measure based on the Vapnik and Chervonenkis (VC) dimension of a learning algorithm and the notion of complexity as defined by Kolmogorov. We also propose a new credibility measure based on the VC dimension. The resulting confidence and credibility measures are then tested on the well-known US postal handwritten digit recognition, on the Wisconsin breast cancer dataset and are also tested for agitation detection. The results show high and improved correlation between the decision and the confidence/credibility measures compared to Vovk's and Platt's methods.

Company spokesperson vs. customer testimonial: Investigating quoted spokesperson credibility and impact in business-to-business communication

Through the framework of source credibility, this study examines the impact of quoting a company executive versus a customer testimonial in a business communication context. A 2 (spokesperson)×7 (media channel) full factorial experiment (N=514) showed partial support for enhanced perceived credibility of information conveyed by a customer testimonial compared to a company spokesperson in independent and controlled media channels online. When evaluated through a measure of media credibility, a customer spokesperson rates higher than a company spokesperson. In addition, a product is viewed more positively by an audience receiving information quoting a customer spokesperson rather than a company spokesperson. An audience with low business expertise considers both types of spokespersons as more trustworthy than a high-expertise audience; however, a customer is considered more trustworthy than a company spokesperson. The study provides public relations professionals with insight in determining the use of spokespersons when communicating to businesspeople.

A Measure of Credibility?

An abstract is not available for this content. As you have access to this content, full HTML content is provided on this page. A PDF of this content is also available in through the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Searching for answers to the riddle of ovarian aging

Searching for answers to the riddle of ovarian aging

A Credibility Proxy: Tracking US Monetary Developments

The purpose of this paper is two-fold: first, we propose a method for checking empirically whether inflation expectations are anchored in the long run, and at what level. The extent of anchoring then serves as a proxy for the credibility of the monetary authority. Second, to assess how well this measure proxies credibility, we cross-check it against periods for which the level of credibility is known and generally agreed upon. To this end, we apply our measure to the US inflation history since 1963, which includes both the period of the Great Inflation, in which credibility was poor and deteriorating, as well as the period of the Great Moderation during which credibility in the monetary authority was gradually re-established. Finally we check what our measure of credibility tells us about the crisis period.

A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model for the Determinants of Inflation Expectations and Credibility in the ECB and the Recent Financial Crisis

This paper studies the determinants of inflation expectations and credibility in the European Central Bank (ECB) during the first decade of European monetary policy. As a measure of credibility we use the gap between the professional economists' inflation forecasts and the ECB's inflation objective. In addition, we investigate whether the main driving factors of inflation expectations and credibility have changed during the recent financial crisis. Within a panel data approach we use Consensus Economics Forecasts in a real-time framework over the period December 2002-May 2010. First, we find that the history of inflation honesty, the forecasts of real GDP growth, M3 growth and the industrial producers' price inflation appear as key determinants of the inflation expectations and the credibility gap in the ECB. Second, within a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) modeling we account for a change of regime in the determinants of the inflation forecasts and the credibility in the Central Bank. Finally, we provide new evidence on the impact of the recent non conventional monetary policy operations on the inflation credibility dynamics of the ECB. Using the ratio of Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) and the ratio of Securities in the total assets held by the ECB as transition variables, we find that the impact of the key explanatory variables has changed at the onset and at the peak of the financial crisis respectively.

A non-parametric mixture model for genome-enabled prediction of genetic value for a quantitative trait

A Bayesian nonparametric form of regression based on Dirichlet process priors is adapted to the analysis of quantitative traits possibly affected by cryptic forms of gene action, and to the context of SNP-assisted genomic selection, where the main objective is to predict a genomic signal on phenotype. The procedure clusters unknown genotypes into groups with distinct genetic values, but in a setting in which the number of clusters is unknown a priori, so that standard methods for finite mixture analysis do not work. The central assumption is that genetic effects follow an unknown distribution with some "baseline" family, which is a normal process in the cases considered here. A Bayesian analysis based on the Gibbs sampler produces estimates of the number of clusters, posterior means of genetic effects, a measure of credibility in the baseline distribution, as well as estimates of parameters of the latter. The procedure is illustrated with a simulation representing two populations. In the first one, there are 3 unknown QTL, with additive, dominance and epistatic effects; in the second, there are 10 QTL with additive, dominance and additive×additive epistatic effects. In the two populations, baseline parameters are inferred correctly. The Dirichlet process model infers the number of unique genetic values correctly in the first population, but it produces an understatement in the second one; here, the true number of clusters is over 900, and the model gives a posterior mean estimate of about 140, probably because more replication of genotypes is needed for correct inference. The impact on inferences of the prior distribution of a key parameter (M), and of the extent of replication, was examined via an analysis of mean body weight in 192 paternal half-sib families of broiler chickens, where each sire was genotyped for nearly 7,000 SNPs. In this small sample, it was found that inference about the number of clusters was affected by the prior distribution of M. For a set of combinations of parameters of a given prior distribution, the effects of the prior dissipated when the number of replicate samples per genotype was increased. Thus, the Dirichlet process model seems to be useful for gauging the number of QTLs affecting the trait: if the number of clusters inferred is small, probably just a few QTLs code for the trait. If the number of clusters inferred is large, this may imply that standard parametric models based on the baseline distribution may suffice. However, priors may be influential, especially if sample size is not large and if only a few genotypic configurations have replicate phenotypes in the sample.

An Empirical Analysis of the Issue and Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses

Information disclosure plays an important role in the well functioning of capital markets. While our understanding of the minimum disclosure required by regulation is good, our knowledge about the voluntary disclosure of information in excess of the minimum requirement is quite limited. The objective of this paper is to provide one more piece of evidence on the voluntary disclosure of earnings forecasts in IPO prospectuses by considering a small but homogeneous market in North America: the Canadian province of Qu?bec, where the inclusion of earnings forecasts in prospectus is voluntary. We propose an empirical analysis that focuses on firm specific characteristics known at the time of the IPO, and takes into account the endogeneity of the forecast decision and precision. Our results indicate that riskier and high growth firms are less likely to issue a management forecast in the prospectus. We also find that the firm's capacity to issue a forecast is negatively related to the precision of the forecast as proxied by ex-post forecast error. This error is also affected by firm's risk, by the forecast horizon and is reduced for older firms. Firms that appear to take good care at building their forecast, judging by the number of assumptions, are also experiencing lower forecast error. We construct an ex-ante measure of forecast credibility that we estimate concurrently with the impact of forecast on underpricing. Our results show that the issue of a forecast reduces underpricing, however, this effect disappears when we control for the ex-ante credibility of the forecast.