Measles Surveillance Data Research Articles

Measles surveillance data analysis and serological survey in Quzhou, China, 2014–2024: an assessment of progress toward measles elimination

BackgroundMeasles is a disease that can be eliminated through vaccination. In recent years, measles incidence and mortality have been greatly reduced.MethodsAnalyze measles surveillance data from 2014 to 2023 and measles seroepidemiological characteristics of healthy populations in 2024 to assess progress toward measles elimination.ResultsA total of 35 measles cases were reported in the surveillance system from 2014–2023 in Quzhou, with an average annual incidence of 1.6/1 million. Since 2019, the incidence of measles has been lower than 0.5/1 million. A serological survey of 257 healthy people showed that the positive rate of measles IgG antibody was 90.3%, and the immunity of all age groups except 0–5 years old was lower than 95%, which did not reach the threshold of 95% herd immunity required for eliminating measles.ConclusionAlthough the incidence of measles in Quzhou is low, the immunity of healthy people to measles infection is insufficient. Measles is still in the control phase, not in the elimination phase. Inadequate immunity in the population may be due to the failure to achieve ≥95% vaccination coverage and low immunogenicity of the vaccine. Recommends that the quality of routine immunization data be assessed and monitored to verify reported vaccination coverage; at the same time, improve vaccination services and optimize vaccination policies to increase actual vaccination coverage. In addition, it is recommended to adjust the MMR immunization strategy, changing the time of the first MMR vaccination from 8 months of age to 12–15 months of age, and the second dose at 4 to 6 years of age.

Retrospective Analysis of the Epidemiological Profile of Measles in 2022 in Mali

Measles is a highly contagious viral disease caused by the morbillivirus of which humans are the only reservoir. Our descriptive study aims at analyzing retrospective measles surveillance data from 2022. Of the 2037 suspected measles case samples received at the laboratory, 784 (38%) were confirmed. The age group of 1-4 years is the most affected with an attack rate of 25.43 per 100,000 inhabitants. Children under 5 represent 47.71% of cases. The median age is 4 years and the average age 6.14 years (0 months-54 years). The male sex represents 51% of cases with a sex ratio of 1.06 and an attack rate of 9.72 per 100,000 inhabitants. Most confirmed measles cases (71.77%) were recorded during the dry season. The districts of Koutiala (140 cases: 17.85%), Sikasso (127 cases: 16.19%), Ségou (109 cases: 13.09%) and Bougouni (98 cases: 12.5%) record the most case. The average time for feedback from the laboratory was 3.95 days. Moreover, among the 1253 sample cases negative for measles, 8.22% were positive for rubella. The median age of patients was 6 years. Children under five are the most affected. Most of these cases are in unvaccinated people. The establishment of an enhanced vaccination program at country level considering the most affected groups could reduce the resurgence of measles epidemics. Keywords: Epidemic, Measles, Mali, Notifiable disease (MADO), Spatiotemporal.

Resurgence of measles infection among children: findings from a surveillance-based population study

Background There has been a resurgence of measles infection in countries with high vaccination rates, including Malaysia. Understanding the geographical variation in measles resurgence and associated factors is important for measles prevention and control programs, especially where local information is scarce.
 Objective To determine the incidence of laboratory-confirmed measles infection and associated factors in the state of Melaka, in the southern region of Malaysia.
 Methods We obtained measles surveillance data for 4 years (January 2015 to December 2018) from the e-Measles national database. A comparative cross-sectional study was carried out on these data involving children who had been selected through convenience sampling.
 Results A total of 130 laboratory-confirmed measles cases and 213 non-measles cases were included in the study. Among the laboratory-confirmed cases, 56 (43.1%) had not been vaccinated against measles virus. Thirty-eight cases (51.4%) had received at least one dose of measles vaccine, while 36 cases (48.6%) had completed two doses of measles vaccination. There was a higher risk of contracting laboratory-confirmed measles among unvaccinated children (OR 19.39, 95%CI 8.82 to 42.6, P<0.001) and children aged 8–18 years (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.76, P=0.005)
 Conclusion Unvaccinated children and children aged 8–18 years have a higher risk of contracting laboratory-confirmed measles. The policy on routine immunization should be strengthened, the vaccine should be accessible to all children, and all children and adolescents should be given booster vaccinations.

Ghana’s progress towards measles elimination: Surveillance data analysis, Greater Accra Region, 2015 – 2019

IntroductionAlthough measles is targeted for global elimination by 2020, an estimated 869,770 measles cases and 207,500 deaths occurred in 2019. Ghana adopted the World Health Organization measles elimination strategies, however, evidence of a systematic, comprehensive analysis of data tracking progress towards elimination is sparse. We analyzed measles data to describe its epidemiology, surveillance, and vaccination coverage performances in the Greater Accra Region.MethodsWe reviewed and conducted a descriptive analysis of measles surveillance, laboratory, and vaccination data for 2015 to 2019 obtained from the regional health directorate and National public health reference laboratory. Case patients’ demographic and clinical variables were analyzed into frequencies, proportions, and rates. We used WHO measles elimination performance targets; at least one suspected measles case reported per 100,000 population, 80% of suspected measles cases investigated with adequate blood samples, measles incidence <1/1,000,000 population, 95% routine vaccination coverage and during SIAs as benchmarks.ResultsOf 930 suspected measles cases reported, 605(65.1%) were tested. Males accounted for 356(58.8%); 141(23.3%), 342(56.5%), and 122(20.2%), were children <1, 1–4, and ≥5 years old respectively. Of those tested, 10(1.65%) were measles IgM confirmed, of which 7(70.0%) had received at least one dose of measles vaccine. Annualized measles reporting rate ranged from 1.8 to 6.4 per 100,000 population from 2015 to 2019. District specimen collection rate was 100%, and measles incidence was between 0 – 0.6 per million population in the period 2015–2019. Measles vaccination coverage increased from 73.5% in 2016 to 102% in 2019 with 75% of districts achieving 95% coverage in 2019.ConclusionThe measles case-based surveillance system and vaccination program in the Greater Accra region showed an increasing level of performance towards Ghana’s elimination status. However, performance in laboratory testing of blood specimens was suboptimal. Authorities of Ghana’s health system should strengthen laboratory capacity for prompt diagnosis of measles.

Nationwide Measles and Rubella Outbreaks in South Sudan, 2019.

South Sudan confirmed a measles outbreak in December 2018. An investigation was conducted to assess underlying causes of the outbreak. Vaccination coverage and measles surveillance data were analyzed. A suspected measles case had fever, maculopapular rash, and cough or conjunctivitis. A confirmed measles case had generalized maculopapular rash lasting >3 days, a temperature >38°C, and cough or conjunctivitis; or serologic confirmation (anti-measles immunoglobin M [IgM] antibody detection) in serum samples collected ≤30 days from rash onset. A confirmed rubella case tested measles IgM-negative and rubella IgM-positive. Nationwide, 3727 suspected measles cases were reported in 2019. Seventy-five percent of all suspected measles cases were in children aged <5 years. Thirty-six percent of patients with suspected measles were admitted to the hospital, and 36 measles-related deaths were reported. Among cases, 922 (25%) were tested for measles; of these, 317 (34%) were measles IgM-positive. Among cases that tested measles IgM-negative, 149 (33%) were rubella IgM-positive. Immunization coverage for 1 dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) varied by state, ranging from 6% to 67%. Measles and rubella remain public health problems in South Sudan. To reduce measles incidence, South Sudan needs to achieve >95% coverage with 2 doses of MCV.

Epidemija morbila na teritoriji Smedereva

The Republic of Serbia is a country with endemic measles transmission. Decline of MMR immunization coverage resulted in measles resurgence in Serbia at the beginning of 2023. Aim of this study is a description of measles outbreak at the territory of the City of Smederevo between January and April 2023 and identification of interventions for prevention of future measles outbreaks in the Republic of Serbia. The national active measles surveillance data were analysed. The outbreak involved 43 measles cases, of whom 42 were classified as laboratory confirmed and one as epidemiologically linked. Most of cases were aged 1 to 4 years (44.2%) and 20 to 49 years (32.6%) while the highest age-specific incidence rates were registered in children younger than 12 months (80.6/10,000) and children aged 1 to 4 years (50.5/10,000). Most of cases with known vaccination status (92.9%) were unvaccinated including 8 children younger than 12 months not yet eligible for vaccination according to the national immunization schedule. Number of hospitalized cases were 20 (46.5%) including two cases with pneumonia. Among 14 cases who contracted measles in healthcare settings 5 were employees of General Hospital Smederevo. Genom sequencing was performed in 10 cases and B3 genotype of morbilli virus was detected in all cases. In order to prevent future measles outbreaks in the Republic of Serbia it is necessary to achieve and maintain target values of coverage and timeliness of MMR vaccination. Timely notification of suspected cases and diagnosis of measles as well as immunization of susceptible employees of healthcare institutions are key strategies for prevention of measles transmission in healthcare settings.

Descriptive Epidemiology of Measles Cases in Zamfara State—Nigeria, 2012-2018

Introduction: Nigeria still experiences recurrent outbreaks of measles especially in the North despite the efforts at strengthening routine immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities. We analysed measles surveillance data from Zamfara State, northwestern Nigeria to identify variations in distribution across ages, gender, place, trends, and seasonality.

Measles incidence in South Africa: a six-year review, 2015—2020

In 2012 the World Health Organization (WHO) aimed to eliminate measles in five regions by 2020. This retrospective descriptive study reviewed measles surveillance data in South Africa for the period 2015—2020 to document the epidemiology of measles and the progress made towards meeting the 2020 measles elimination goal.A total of 22,578 specimens were tested over the period 2015—2020 yielding 401 (1.8%) confirmed measles cases, 321 (1.4%) compatible and 21,856 (96.8%) discarded cases. The most affected age group was 0–4 year olds. At the provincial level, South Africa achieved adequate surveillance, defined as more than two cases of febrile rash notified annually per 100 000 popoulation, except for KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo in 2020, probably due to COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. Of confirmed cases, only 26% were vaccinated, 3% were too young to receive vaccines, 5% were not vaccinated, and 65% had unknown vaccination status. Measles vaccine effectiveness amongst 1–4 year olds was 80%. Using the standard case definition, South Africa achieved the measles elimination target of less than one case per one million nationally in years 2015, 2016 and 2020. The years 2017 to 2019 had incidence rates exceeding one per million nationally. Using a narrow case definition, that excluded positive rubella cases, improved the indicators with only the year 2017 having an incidence rate of more than one per million.South Africa displays intermittent measles outbreaks approximately six-yearly interspersed by inter-epidemic periods in which the country meets measles elimination targets. Intense effort is needed to increase the vaccine coverage to avoid periodic outbreaks. Enhanced molecular testing of each case will be required as measles incidence declines regionally.

Transmission Pattern of Measles Virus Circulating in China During 1993-2021: Genotyping Evidence Supports That China Is Approaching Measles Elimination.

To provide useful insights into measles elimination progress in China, measles surveillance data were reviewed, and the transmission patterns of measles viruses circulating in China during 1993-2021 were analyzed. Measles incidence data from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention were analyzed. A total of 17 570 strains were obtained from 30 of 31 provinces in mainland China during 1993-2021. The recommended genotyping window was amplified. Genotyping analysis was conducted for comparison with the reference strains. Phylogenetic analyses were performed to identify genetic relationships among different lineages within the genotypes. With high coverage of routine immunization and intensive supplementary immunization activities, measles incidence has shown a downward trend since 1993, despite 2 resurgences, reaching a historic low level in 2020-2021 (average 0.5 per million). During 1993-2021, 9 genotypes including domestic genotype H1; imported genotypes B3, D4, D8, D9, D11, G3, and H2; and vaccine-associated genotype A were identified. Among them, the genotype H1 strain circulated endemically in China for more than 25 years; the last strain was detected in Yunnan Province in September 2019. Multiple imported genotypes have been identified since 2009 showing different transmission patterns. Since April 2020, no imported strains have been detected, while vaccine-associated genotype A continues to be detected. The evidence of low incidence during 2020-2021 and virological surveillance data in this study confirm that China is currently approaching measles elimination.

Review on measles and its risk factors

Measles is a highly transmitted disease caused by a measles virus, Morbillivirus that can replicate in the nose and throat of an infected individuals. It can be spread by various mode of transmission. Measles is classed as an acute, communicable ailment. Communicable method that the ailment is infectious. Acute method that the length of the ailment is much less than three months and the height of the signs takes place and subsides at some point of this time period. The ailment starts with a fever, runny nostril, cough, crimson eyes, and sore throat, and is followed with the aid of using a rash that spreads everywhere in the body. According to the WHO trendy Measles surveillance data, India is the fourth most type of Measles Cases withinside the world. Symptoms will show interior 10-14 days after infection or incubation period. High fever 1030 F – 1050F, Runny nostril, Troublesome cough, enlarged lymph nodes, Conjunctivitis, Aversion to light, Malaise, Rash fades and peels, but cough can also moreover live up to two to a few weeks later. And Koplik’s spots (rash on mucous membranes).

Measles epidemic in Southern Vietnam: an age-stratified spatio-temporal model for infectious disease counts.

Measles resurged in Vietnam between 2018 and 2020, especially in the Southern region. The proportion of children with measles infection showed quite some variation at the provincial level. We applied a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic modelling framework for age-stratified infectious disease counts using measles surveillance data collected in Southern Vietnam between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2020. We found that disease transmission within age groups was greatest in young children aged 0-4 years whereas a relatively high between-group transmission was observed in older age groups (5-14 years, 15-24 years and 25+ years groups). At the provincial level, spatial transmission followed an age-dependent distance decay with measles spread mainly depending on local and neighbouring transmission. Our study helped to clarify the measles transmission dynamics in a more detailed fashion with respect to age strata, time and space. Findings from this study may help determine proper strategies in measles outbreak control including promotion of age-targeted intervention programmes in specific areas.

Mitigating the Spread of Measles under Constrained Health Care Resources in Tanzania using Social Contact Network Models

Tanzania revaccinates individuals during measles outbreaks, despite having scant healthcare resources. We construct epidemiological models of measles spread by employing a hybrid of existing social contact networks models to develop SEIR simulation model. Using demographic and measles surveillance data from three rural villages in Tanzania, we simulate the spread of measles and examine which vaccination strategies can effectively control outbreaks. Results strongly indicate the spread of measles largely depends on contact rates among infected individuals within a population. Findings indicate a need for targeted vaccination for children of 6 months to 15 years of age, but equally for unvaccinated older age groups who were born before 1957 or missed the second dose. This work contributes theoretically and methodologically to existing applications of social contact network models for airborne infectious diseases in areas with health system constraints. It sets out implications for the design of effective vaccination programs for control of measles in Tanzania and in other developing countries.&#x0D; Keywords: Vaccination strategies, Control strategies, Social contact network models, Airborne infectious diseases, Measles.

Epidemiology of measles cases, vaccine effectiveness, and performance towards measles elimination in The Gambia.

IntroductionIn 2011, member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa Regional Office (AFRO) resolved to eliminate Measles by 2020. Our study aims to assess The Gambia’s progress towards the set AFRO measles elimination target and highlight surveillance and immunisation gaps to better inform future measles prevention strategies.Material and methodsA retrospective review of measles surveillance data for the period 2011–2019, was extracted from The Gambia case-based measles surveillance database. WHO—UNICEF national coverage estimates were used for estimating national level MCV coverage. Measles post campaign coverage survey coverage estimates were used to estimate national measles campaign coverage.ResultsOne hundred and twenty-five of the 863 reported suspected cases were laboratory confirmed as measles cases. More than half (53.6%) of the confirmed cases have unknown vaccination status, 24% of cases were vaccinated, 52.8% of cases occurred among males, and 72.8% cases were among urban residents. The incidence of measles cases per million population was lowest (0) in 2011–2012 and highest in 2015 and 2016 (31 and 23 respectively). The indicator for surveillance sensitivity was met in all years except in 2016 and 2019. Children aged 5–9 years (Incidence Rate Ratio—IRR = 0.6) and residents of Central River region (IRR = 0.21) had lower measles risk whilst unvaccinated (Adjusted IRR = 5.95) and those with unknown vaccination status (IRR 2.21) had higher measles risk. Vaccine effectiveness was 89.5%.ConclusionThe Gambia’s quest to attain measles elimination status by 2020 has registered significant success but it is unlikely that all target indicators will be met. Vaccination has been very effective in preventing cases. There is variation in measles risk by health region, and it will be important to take it into account when designing prevention and control strategies. The quality of case investigations should be improved to enhance the quality of surveillance for decision making.

Epidemiology of Measles in Bale Zone, Southeast Ethiopia: Analysis of Surveillance Data from 2013 to 2019.

BackgroundMeasles remains a cause of vaccine-preventable death in children worldwide. Reported cases in Ethiopiarepresent only a small proportion of expected cases, due to weak measles-based surveillance implementation. In this study, we aimed to analyze 7 years’ measles-surveillance data from Bale zone, in order to indicate measles epidemiology and surveillance-related gaps.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted from May to June 2019. The study population was all measles cases reported to the Bale Zone Health Office from 2013 to 2019. Data were abstracted from 7 years’ measles line lists and case-based reports using a data-abstraction check-list. Data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel and Pivot software, and were presented in tables and graphs.ResultsOverall, 4,241 measles cases were reported from 2013 to 2019. Mean age was 7.15 years, and 50.6% were male. The most affected age-group was children <4 years of age. Analysis indicated that the case-fatality rate was 3.07/1,000 population. Of the total cases reported, 248 (5.8%) were IgM-confirmed. The highest prevalence of 141/100,000 population was reported in 2019. Unvaccinated cases and those with unknown vaccination status numbered 890 (21%) and 731 (17.2%), respectively. The highest number of cases was reported from Ginir and Gololcha districts. Cases increased in autumn each year and peaked in May.ConclusionMeasles is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Bale, due to poor immunization coverage. Its case fatality is also high, excluding community deaths. Of all the districts included, Ginir reported the highest number of cases. Improving vaccination coverage, early preparedness for the annual epidemic cycle, and strengthening case-based surveillance are important interventions to reduce measles morbidity and mortality.

Descriptive epidemiology of measles cases in Bauchi State, 2013\u20132018

BackgroundMeasles accounts for high morbidity and mortality in children, especially in developing countries. In 2017, about 11,190 measles cases were recorded in Nigeria, including Bauchi State. The aim of this study was to describe the trend and burden of measles in Bauchi State, Nigeria.MethodWe analyzed secondary data of measles cases extracted from the Measles Surveillance data system in Bauchi State from January 2013 to June 2018. The variables extracted included age, sex, doses of vaccination, case location and outcome. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and multiplicative time series model (α = 0.05).ResultsA total of 4935 suspected measles cases with an average annual incidence rate of 15.3 per 100,000 population and 57 deaths (Case Fatality Rate, CFR: 1.15%) were reported. Among the reported cases, 294 (6%;) were laboratory-confirmed, while clinically compatible and epi-linked cases were 402 (8%) and 3879 (70%), respectively. Of the 4935 measles cases, 2576 (52%) were males, 440 (9%) were under 1 year of age, and 3289 (67%) were between 1 and 4 years. The average annual incidence rate among the 1–4 year age-group was 70.3 per 100,000 population. The incidence rate was lowest in 2018 with 2.1 per 100,000 and highest in 2015 with 26.2 per 100,000 population. The measles cases variation index per quarter was highest in quarter 1 (198.86), followed by quarter 2 (62.21) and least in quarter 4 (10.37) of every year. Only 889 (18%) of the measles cases received at least one dose of measles vaccine, 2701 (54.7%) had no history of measles vaccination while 1346 (27.3%) had unknown vaccination status. The fatality of measles in Bauchi State were significantly associated with being under 5 years (AOR = 5.58; 95%CI: 2.19–14.22) and not having at least a dose of MCV (OR = 7.14; 95%CI: 3.70–14.29).ConclusionMeasles burden remains high in Bauchi State despite a decrease in its incidence over the study years. Most of the cases occurred in the first quarter of every year. Improved routine measles surveillance for prompt case management could reduce the burden of the disease in Bauchi State.

Descriptive Characterisation of Suspected Measles Cases in Sokoto State 2010 -2016: A Secondary Data Analysis

Background: Measles is a disease with worldwide distribution; however, control efforts have substantially altered the global distribution. The incidence has decreased considerably in regions where routine vaccination is strong; however, this is not the case in developing countries like Nigeria. This study aims to describe the distribution of measles cases in Sokoto state in time, place and person. Methods: Descriptive analyses of measles surveillance data between 2010 and 2016 was carried out to describe the epidemiology of measles in Sokoto State in Time, Place and Person. Microsoft Excel and IBM SPSS were used to analyse the data. We reported frequencies and proportions; cross-tabulations and chi-square tests were used to find associations between variables. Results: A total of 13974 suspected cases of measles were line-listed between January 2010 and June 2016. Overall, 11008 (78.8%) were below five years, and 7421 (53.1%) were males. A majority, 12896 (92%), of the suspected measles cases were reported in the first half of each year of evaluation. Gwadabawa Local Government Area (LGA) recorded the highest measles cases, 1881 (14%). Ten thousand and twenty-seven (71.8%) of suspected measles cases did not receive the measles vaccine. The overall Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was 0.9%. However, Bodinga LGA had the highest CFR of 4%. Only 605(4%) suspected measles cases were tested for Measles IgM. One hundred and twenty-five (0.9%) deaths were recorded. Factors significantly associated with deaths are measles vaccination status (p = 0.001) and admission status (p &lt; 0.001). Conclusion: There is the persistence of measles over the period affecting primarily children below five years with a low CFR. However, a majority of the children did not receive their measles vaccine. Based on this finding, measles will remain a public health problem unless significant efforts are put into place to increase vaccination coverage.

Measles surveillance in Canada, 2019.

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) has conducted enhanced measles surveillance since 1998, the year endemic measles transmission was eliminated in Canada. The objective of this annual national measles surveillance report is to provide an epidemiologic summary of measles activity reported in Canada for 2019 in order to provide evidence to support the continued verification of Canada's measles elimination status. Measles surveillance data are housed in the Canadian Measles and Rubella Surveillance System (CMRSS) database. Descriptive analyses of demographics and risk factors were performed. Outbreak characteristics were summarized and genotypic analyses conducted. Surveillance, laboratory and vaccine coverage data for 2019 were used to assess Canada's status against the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) essential criteria for the verification of measles elimination. In 2019, 113 measles cases were reported in Canada (crude incidence rate of 3.0 cases per 1,000,000 population). Of these cases, 42 (37%) were imported into Canada, and of the imported cases, 12 (29%) resulted in further transmission. Infants younger than one year had the highest age-specific incidence rate at 13.1 cases per 1,000,000 population. Only 29% of cases had one or more documented doses of measles-containing vaccine. One-fifth (19%) of cases were hospitalized; no deaths were reported. Genotype information was available for 100% of outbreaks reported in 2019 and 90% of non-outbreak-related measles cases; of cases with genotype information available, 27% were B3 and 73% were D8. Despite meeting/partially meeting only three out of four of PAHO's essential criteria for measles elimination status, there is no evidence that endemic measles transmission has been reestablished in Canada.

The challenges of insecurity on implementing vaccination campaign and its effect on measles elimination and control efforts: A case study of 2017/18 measles campaign in Borno state, Nigeria

Conflict has a negative effect on immunization outcomes leading to epidemics of measles and other vaccine preventable diseases. Borno state, located in the North-Eastern parts of the country, started experiencing insurgency since 2009 by a militant group commonly referred to as “Boko Haram”, leading to displacement of numerous persons from their homes. The state government created internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps with an estimated 600,000 persons and over 100,000 children aged 9 – 59 months. We explored the challenges in implementing the measles campaign in 2017 and its effect on measles elimination and control efforts in Borno State. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective review of the measles surveillance data from the Integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR), the early warning alert and response system (EWARS), Measles SIA implementation strategy reports and the Post campaign evaluation survey data. ResultSeven (26%) of the 27 LGAs had security challenges in Borno state in November 2017. Following the measles campaign, 30 EAs were surveyed as part of the post campaign evaluation with a coverage validation of 72%, the lowest reported state level coverage in the country. Reported measles cases in the age cohort <1Year increased in 2018 by 14.3% compared to 2017. ConclusionDespite the security challenges in Borno state, the 2017 measles SIA was conducted with the post campaign evaluation highlighting some areas of suboptimal performance. There remains a need to review the required strategies for successful implementation in Borno and other states affected by security challenges. The reestablishment of holding camps and vaccination posts at all entry points into IDP camps and host communities to ensure new entrants are screened and vaccinated with the measles vaccines, as has been successful in the polio programme in Nigeria will promotes efforts towards Measles control in the state.

Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States.

Measles incidence in the United States has grown dramatically, as vaccination rates are declining and transmission internationally is on the rise. Because imported cases are necessary drivers of outbreaks in non-endemic settings, predicting measles outbreaks in the US depends on predicting imported cases. To assess the predictability of imported measles cases, we performed a regression of imported measles cases in the US against an inflow variable that combines air travel data with international measles surveillance data. To understand the contribution of each data type to these predictions, we repeated the regression analysis with alternative versions of the inflow variable that replaced each data type with averaged values and with versions of the inflow variable that used modeled inputs. We assessed the performance of these regression models using correlation, coverage probability, and area under the curve statistics, including with resampling and cross-validation. Our regression model had good predictive ability with respect to the presence or absence of imported cases in a given state in a given year (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.78) and the magnitude of imported cases (Pearson correlation = 0.84). By comparing alternative versions of the inflow variable averaging over different inputs, we found that both air travel data and international surveillance data contribute to the model’s ability to predict numbers of imported cases and individually contribute to its ability to predict the presence or absence of imported cases. Predicted sources of imported measles cases varied considerably across years and US states, depending on which countries had high measles activity in a given year. Our results emphasize the importance of the relationship between global connectedness and the spread of measles. This study provides a framework for predicting and understanding imported case dynamics that could inform future studies and outbreak prevention efforts.

COVID-19 vaccination in the UK: is it time to celebrate?

COVID-19 vaccination in the UK: is it time to celebrate?