Mean Zonal Wind Research Articles

Arctic cut-off high drives the poleward shift of a new Greenland melting record.

Large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet through its impact on radiative budget, runoff and accumulation. Here, using reanalysis data and the outputs of a regional climate model, we show that the persistence of an exceptional atmospheric ridge, centred over the Arctic Ocean, was responsible for a poleward shift of runoff, albedo and surface temperature records over the Greenland during the summer of 2015. New records of monthly mean zonal winds at 500 hPa and of the maximum latitude of ridge peaks of the 5,700±50 m isohypse over the Arctic were associated with the formation and persistency of a cutoff high. The unprecedented (1948–2015) and sustained atmospheric conditions promoted enhanced runoff, increased the surface temperatures and decreased the albedo in northern Greenland, while inhibiting melting in the south, where new melting records were set over the past decade.

Impact of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on the Vertical Coupling of the Stratosphere–Mesosphere–Lower Thermosphere System

Abstract There is evidence that the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the Antarctic ozone hole–induced cooling cause a polar mesospheric warming and a subsequent cooling in the lower thermosphere. While previous studies focus on the role of nonresolved (gravity) wave drag filtering, here the role of resolved (planetary) wave drag and radiative forcing on the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is explored in detail. Using simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) [CESM1(WACCM)], it is found that in late spring and early summer the anomalous polar mesospheric warming induced by easterly nonresolved wave drag is dampened by anomalous dynamical cooling induced by westerly resolved wave drag. This resolved wave drag is attributed to planetary-scale wave (k = 1–3) activity, which is generated in situ as a result of increased instability of the summer mesospheric easterly jet induced by the ozone hole. On the other hand, the anomalous cooling in the polar lower thermosphere induced by westerly nonresolved wave drag is enhanced by anomalous dynamical cooling due to westerly resolved wave drag. In addition, radiative effects from increased greenhouse gases during the ozone hole period contribute partially to the cooling in the polar lower thermosphere. The polar MLT temperature response to the Antarctic ozone hole is, through thermal wind balance, accompanied by the downward migration of anomalous zonal-mean wind from the lower thermosphere to the stratopause. The results highlight that a proper accounting of both dynamical and radiative effects is required in order to correctly attribute the causes of the polar MLT response to the Antarctic ozone hole.

Stratospheric Aerosols from Major Volcanic Eruptions: A Composition-Climate Model Study of the Aerosol Cloud Dispersal and e-folding Time

Large explosive volcanic eruptions are capable of injecting considerable amounts of particles and sulfur gases above the tropopause, causing large increases in stratospheric aerosols. Five major volcanic eruptions after 1960 (i.e., Agung, St. Helens, El Chichón, Nevado del Ruiz and Pinatubo) have been considered in a numerical study conducted with a composition-climate coupled model including an aerosol microphysics code for aerosol formation and growth. Model results are compared between an ensemble of numerical simulations including volcanic aerosols and their radiative effects (VE) and a reference simulations ensemble (REF) with no radiative impact of the volcanic aerosols. Differences of VE-REF show enhanced diabatic heating rates; increased stratospheric temperatures and mean zonal westerly winds; increased planetary wave amplitude; and tropical upwelling. The impact on stratospheric upwelling is found to be larger when the volcanically perturbed stratospheric aerosol is confined to the tropics, as tends to be the case for eruptions which were followed by several months with easterly shear of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), e.g., the Pinatubo case. Compared to an eruption followed by a period of westerly QBO, such easterly QBO eruptions are quite different, with meridional transport to mid- and high-latitudes occurring later, and at higher altitude, with a consequent decrease in cross-tropopause removal from the stratosphere, and therefore longer decay timescale. Comparing the model-calculated e-folding time of the volcanic aerosol mass during the first year after the eruptions, an increase is found from 8.1 and 10.3 months for El Chichón and Agung (QBO westerly shear), to 14.6 and 30.7 months for Pinatubo and Ruiz (QBO easterly shear). The corresponding e-folding time of the global-mean radiative flux changes goes from 9.1 and 8.0 months for El Chichón and Agung, to 28.7 and 24.5 months for Pinatubo and Ruiz.

The impact of wave‐mean flow interaction on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex after tropical volcanic eruptions

AbstractThe current generation of Earth system models that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) does not, on average, produce a strengthened Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex after large tropical volcanic eruptions as suggested by observational records. Here we investigate the impact of volcanic eruptions on the NH winter stratosphere with an ensemble of 20 model simulations of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model. We compare the dynamical impact in simulations of the very large 1815 Tambora eruption with the averaged dynamical response to the two largest eruptions of the CMIP5 historical simulations (the 1883 Krakatau and the 1991 Pinatubo eruptions). We find that for both the Tambora and the averaged Krakatau‐Pinatubo eruptions the radiative perturbation only weakly affects the polar vortex directly. The position of the maximum temperature anomaly gradient is located at approximately 30°N, where we obtain significant westerly zonal wind anomalies between 10 hPa and 30 hPa. Under the very strong forcing of the Tambora eruption, the NH polar vortex is significantly strengthened because the subtropical westerly wind anomalies are sufficiently strong to robustly alter the propagation of planetary waves. The average response to the eruptions of Krakatau and Pinatubo reveals a slight strengthening of the polar vortex, but individual ensemble members differ substantially, indicating that internal variability plays a dominant role. For the Tambora eruption the ensemble variability of the zonal mean temperature and zonal wind anomalies during midwinter and late winter is significantly reduced compared to the volcanically unperturbed period.

Measurement of momentum flux using two meteor radars in Indonesia

Abstract. Two nearly identical meteor radars were operated at Koto Tabang (0.20° S, 100.32° E), West Sumatra, and Biak (1.17° S, 136.10° E), West Papua, in Indonesia, separated by approximately 4000 km in longitude on the Equator. The zonal and meridional momentum flux, u′w′ and v′w′, where u, v, and w are the eastward, northward, and vertical wind velocity components, respectively, were estimated at 86 to 94 km altitudes using the meteor radar data by applying a method proposed by Hocking (2005). The observed u′w′ at the two sites agreed reasonably well at 86, 90, and 94 km during the observation periods when the data acquisition rate was sufficiently large enough. Variations in v′w′ were consistent between 86, 90, and 94 km altitudes at both sites. The climatological variation in the monthly averaged u′w′ and v′w′ was investigated using the long-term radar data at Koto Tabang from November 2002 to November 2013. The seasonal variations in u′w′ and v′w′ showed a repeatable semiannual and annual cycles, respectively. u′w′ showed eastward values in February–April and July–September and v′w′ was northward in June to August at 90–94 km, both of which were generally anti-phase with the mean zonal and meridional winds, having the same periodicity. Our results suggest the usefulness of the Hocking method.

Tropospheric and Stratospheric Precursors to the January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

AbstractThis paper investigates the tropospheric and stratospheric precursors to a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that began on 6 January 2013. Using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the analysis identified two distinct decelerations of the 10-hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 65°N in December in addition to the major SSW, which occurred on 6 January 2013 when the 10-hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 65°N reversed from westerly to easterly. The analysis shows that the two precursor events preconditioned the stratosphere for the SSW.Analysis of the tropospheric state in the days leading to the precursor events and the major SSW suggests that high-latitude tropospheric blocks occurred in the days prior to the two December deceleration events, but not in the days prior to the SSW. A detailed wave activity flux (WAF) analysis suggests that the tropospheric blocking prior to the two December deceleration events contributed to an anomalously positive 40-day-average 100-hPa zonal mean meridional eddy heat flux prior to the SSW. Analysis of the stratospheric structure in the days prior to the SSW reveals that the SSW was associated with enhanced WAF in the upper stratosphere, planetary wave breaking, and an upper-stratospheric/lower-mesospheric disturbance. These results suggest that preconditioning of the stratosphere occurred as a result of WAF initiated by tropospheric blocking associated with the two December deceleration events. The two December deceleration events occurred in the 40 days prior to the SSW and led to the amplification of wave activity in the upper stratosphere and wave resonance that caused the January 2013 SSW.

Global distribution of vertical wavenumber spectra in the lower stratosphere observed using high-vertical-resolution temperature profiles from COSMIC GPS radio occultation

Abstract. We retrieved temperature (T) profiles with a high vertical resolution using the full spectrum inversion (FSI) method from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) GPS radio occultation (GPS-RO) data from January 2007 to December 2009. We studied the characteristics of temperature perturbations in the stratosphere at 20–27 km altitude. This height range does not include a sharp jump in the background Brunt–Väisälä frequency squared (N2) near the tropopause, and it was reasonably stable regardless of season and latitude. We analyzed the vertical wavenumber spectra of gravity waves (GWs) with vertical wavelengths ranging from 0.5 to 3.5 km, and we integrated the (total) potential energy EpT. Another integration of the spectra from 0.5 to 1.75 km was defined as EpS for short vertical wavelength GWs, which was not studied with the conventional geometrical optics (GO) retrievals. We also estimated the logarithmic spectral slope (p) for the saturated portion of spectra with a linear regression fitting from 0.5 to 1.75 km.Latitude and time variations in the spectral parameters were investigated in two longitudinal regions: (a) 90–150° E, where the topography was more complicated, and (b) 170–230° E, which is dominated by oceans. We compared EpT, EpS, and p, with the mean zonal winds (U) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). We also show a ratio of EpS to EpT and discuss the generation source of EpS. EpT and p clearly showed an annual cycle, with their maximum values in winter at 30–50° N in region (a), and 50–70° N in region (b), which was related to the topography. At 30–50° N in region (b), EpT and p exhibited some irregular variations in addition to an annual cycle. In the Southern Hemisphere, we also found an annual oscillation in EpT and p, but it showed a time lag of about 2 months relative to U. Characteristics of EpTand p in the tropical region seem to be related to convective activity. The ratio of EpT to the theoretical model value, assuming saturated GWs, became larger in the equatorial region and over mountainous regions.

Arctic sea ice and warm season North American extreme surface air temperatures

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 67:15-29 (2016) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01349 Arctic sea ice and warm season North American extreme surface air temperatures Dagmar Budikova1,*, Leonardo Chechi2 1Department of Geography-Geology, Illinois State University, Normal, IL 61790-4400, USA 2Agronomy, Universidade federal da Fronteira Sul (Federal University of South Border), Erechim, RS 99700-000, Brazil *Corresponding author: dbudiko@ilstu.edu ABSTRACT: A growing amount of evidence points to a notable linkage between the changing Arctic cryosphere and weather in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recent studies propose a series of mechanisms that make plausible the connection between Arctic amplification/sea ice decline and extreme weather. Using composite analyses, this study examines associations between the frequency of occurrence of boreal summer daily extreme surface air temperatures across North America and simultaneous mean Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) conditions during the period 1979-2013. Four distinct regions show coherent relationships including large sections of the eastern USA, Canada and the Canadian Arctic, central North America, southeast USA, and the west coast from southern Canada to Alaska. Across the eastern USA and Canada, as well as in western North America, the connections are principally shaped by low ice conditions with an expected decline in the incidence of cool nights/days and an increase in the incidence of warm nights/days. The ice-temperature relationships observed in the other regions are mostly shaped by high ice conditions. Synoptic analyses indicate the associations to be reflected in mean summer surface air temperature (SAT) and surface anomaly flows, as well as in the 500 and 200 hPa geopotential height flow and mean zonal wind anomaly patterns. Areas with the greatest atmospheric flow modifications have been generally associated with regions that display most notable extreme temperature frequency modifications. KEY WORDS: Arctic ice · Summer extreme temperature · North America Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Budikova D, Chechi L (2016) Arctic sea ice and warm season North American extreme surface air temperatures. Clim Res 67:15-29. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01349 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 67, No. 1. Online publication date: January 12, 2016 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2016 Inter-Research.

Analysis of the Equatorial Lower Stratosphere Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Using ECMWF-Interim Reanalysis Data Set

The ERA-Interim data set from Europe Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) was used to quantitatively analyze the characteristic of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Analysis of spatial and temporal of the data showed that the zonally symmetric easterly and westerly phase of QBO regimes alternate with period of ∼27.7 months. Based on Equivalent QBO Amplitude (EQA) method, the maximum amplitudes in zonal mean zonal wind (u), temperature (T), vertical shear (du/dz) and quadratic vertical shear (d2u/dz2) are ∼28.3 m/s, ∼3.4 K, ∼4.8 m/s/km, and ∼1.0 m/s/km2 respectively. The amplitudes decay exponentially with a Gaussian distribution in latitude. The twofold-structure of QBO descends downward at rate of ∼1 km/month. The temperature anomaly can be used to analyze the characteristic of QBO which satisfies the thermal wind balance relation in the lower- stratosphere due to very small contribution of the mean meridional and vertical motion. Moreover, the concentration of the total column ozone (TCO) in the tropics is significantly influenced by QBO. During the westerly phase of QBO, the TCO is relatively increased in the lower-stratosphere, but decreased during the opposite phase.

An Observational and Model Characterization of Vertical Structure of Wind Fields over Eastern United States: A Case Study of Sterling, Virginia

The performance of twenty GCMs that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) is evaluated at Sterling, Virginia, by comparing model outputs with radiosonde observational dataset and reanalysis dataset. We evaluated CMIP5 models in their ability to simulate wind climatology, seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and trends at the pressure levels from 850 hPa to 30 hPa. We also addressed the question of the number of years required to detect statistically significant wind trends using radiosonde wind measurements. Our results show that CMIP5 models and reanalysis successfully reproduced the observed climatological annual mean zonal wind and wind speed vertical distribution. They also capture the observed seasonal zonal, meridional, and wind speed vertical distribution with stronger (weaker) wind during the winter (summer) season. However, there is some disagreement in the magnitude of vertical profiles among CMIP5 models, reanalysis, and radiosonde observation. Overall, the number of years to obtain statistically significant trend decreases with increasing pressure level except for upper troposphere. Although the vertical profile of interannual variability of CMIP5 models and reanalysis agree with the radiosonde observation, the wind trend is not statistically significant. This indicates that detection of trends on local scale is challenging because of small signal-to-noise ratio problems.

Attribution of variations in the quasi-biennial oscillation period from the duration of easterly and westerly phases

This study reports the main features of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) period variability at stratospheric levels from 70 to 10 hPa and its attribution from the duration variability of westerly and easterly phases using monthly mean zonal wind data from August 1956 to July 2013, archived by Free University of Berlin. A total of 24 QBO events have been distinguished based on the zonal wind field and wavelet analysis for it. The QBO period varies in phase at various stratospheric levels and shows no significant long-term trend but decadal to multi-decadal variability. The noted case-to-case variations in QBO period are due to variations in durations of the westerly and easterly phases at the same level. The highly coupled variability of the easterly duration in the upper levels above 30 hPa and westerly durations in the lower levels below, which manifests the stalling or accelerating of the descent rate of easterly wind regimes around 30 hPa, is found to be the dominant variability of the easterly and westerly durations at various stratospheric levels. Accordingly, the period of QBO in the lower levels below 40 hPa/upper levels above 20 hPa is determined by the westerly/easterly durations there in about 75 % of the 24 QBO events; and at 30 hPa, variations in the durations of both easterly and westerly phases contribute to the QBO period variability. On the contrary, in only 4 out of 24 QBO events, the variations of the westerly/easterly durations in the upper/lower levels are greater than the variations of the easterly/westerly durations in the upper/lower levels, making deterministic contributions to the QBO period variability.

Influence of subtropical Rossby wave trains on planetary wave activity over Antarctica in September 2002

At the beginning of September 2002, strong convection processes over south-eastern Indonesia and over south-eastern Africa have been observed. Due to the strong upper tropospheric divergent outflow, two Rossby wave trains (RWTs) were generated. Their south-eastward propagation was controlled by the mean background flow. These two wave trains are visible in observations. It is hypothesised that these wave trains cause enhanced planetary wave activity fluxes which are a result of an amplified planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over Antarctica. Such a change of the planetary wave structure was diagnosed in September 2002, prior to the first observed major sudden stratospheric warming event on the Southern Hemisphere. A simplified version of GCM ECHAM4 is used to evaluate the hypothesis. Sensitivity experiments were performed for a mean background flow similar to September 2002. Furthermore, the wave maker approach was used to generate Rossby waves in the subtropical upper troposphere at two distinct locations which are corresponding to the observed regions of divergent outflow. As a main result, after about 2 weeks of model integration with wave maker forcing, we find two RWTs with a south-eastward propagation inducing a polar amplification of planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere and lower/middle stratosphere. The poleward wave activity flux is enhanced in comparison to the control run without any wave maker forcing. The convergence of the Eliassen–Palm flux causes a 25% deceleration of zonal mean zonal wind in the model stratosphere but no wind reversal. Sensitivity runs support the robustness of these results. The obtained model results highlight the mechanism and confirm the hypothesis that enhanced planetary wave activity in austral polar region in 2002 is caused by enhanced subtropical forcing of two RWTs.

On the Convective Coupling and Moisture Organization of East Pacific Easterly Waves

Abstract Processes associated with the local amplification of easterly waves (EWs) in the east Pacific warm pool are explored. Developing EWs favor convection in the southwest and northeast quadrants of the disturbance. In nascent EWs, convection favors the southwest quadrant. As the EW life cycle progresses, convection in the northeast quadrant becomes increasingly prominent and southwest quadrant convection wanes. The EW moisture budget reveals that anomalous meridional winds acting on the mean meridional moisture gradient of the ITCZ produce moisture anomalies supportive of convection in the southwest quadrant early in the EW life cycle. As EWs mature, moisture anomalies on the poleward side of the EW begin to grow and are supported by the advection of anomalous moisture by the mean zonal wind. In the southwest and northeast portions of the wave, where convection anomalies are favored, lower-tropospheric vorticity is generated locally through vertical stretching that supports a horizontal tilt of the wave from the southwest to the northeast. EWs with such tilts are then able to draw energy via barotropic conversion from the background cyclonic zonal wind shear present in the east Pacific. Convection anomalies associated with EWs vary strongly with changes in the background intraseasonal state. EWs during westerly and neutral intraseasonal periods are associated with robust convection anomalies. Easterly intraseasonal periods are, at times, associated with very weak EW convection anomalies because of weaker moisture and diluted CAPE variations.

Possible modulation of migrating diurnal tide by latitudinal gradient of zonal wind observed by SABER/TIMED

Temperature data from SABER/TIMED and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis are taken to examine possible modulations of the temperature migrating diurnal tide (DW1) by latitudinal gradients of zonal mean zonal wind ( $$\overline \zeta $$ ). The result shows that $$\overline \zeta $$ increases with altitudes and displays clearly seasonal and interannual variability. In the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), at the latitudes between 20°N and 20°S, when $$\overline \zeta $$ strengthens (weakens) at equinoxes (solstices) the DW1 amplitude increases (decreases) simultaneously. Stronger maximum in March-April equinox occurs in both $$\overline \zeta $$ and the DW1 amplitude. Besides, a quasi-biennial oscillation of DW1 is also found to be synchronous with $$\overline \zeta $$ . The resembling spatial-temporal features suggest that $$\overline \zeta $$ in the upper tropic MLT probably plays an important role in modulating semiannual, annual, and quasi-biennial oscillations in DW1 at the same latitude and altitude. In addition, $$\overline \zeta $$ in the mesosphere possibly affects the propagation of DW1 and produces SAO of DW1 in the lower thermosphere. Thus, SAO of DW1 in the upper MLT may be a combined effect of $$\overline \zeta $$ both in the mesosphere and in the upper MLT, which models studies should determine in the future.

Wave coupling between the lower and middle thermosphere as viewed from TIMED and GOCE

AbstractVertical coupling between the lower and middle thermosphere due to the eastward propagating diurnal tide with zonal wave number 3 (DE3) and the 3.5 day ultra‐fast Kelvin Wave (UFKW) is investigated using Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics‐Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (TIMED‐SABER) temperatures near 100 km and Gravity field and steady‐state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) neutral densities and zonal winds near 260 km. The analysis is performed between ±45∘ latitude during 2011, when reliable and continuous measurements are available. With geomagnetic and solar effects removed, DE3 and the UFKW are identified as dominant sources of day‐to‐day variability at both heights. Evidence is found for the vertical propagation of DE3 and the UFKW from the lower to middle thermosphere over a range of time scales. Over 60% of the variance due to DE3 and the UFKW at 260 km is traceable to variability occurring at 100 km. The not exact agreement is thought to be due to the influences of wave‐wave interactions, zonal mean winds, dissipation, and inherent transience that interfere with one‐to‐one mapping of structures between 100 and 260 km. Spectral and temporal analyses of the SABER and GOCE data also reveal the presence of sidebands due to the modulation of DE3 by the UFKW. These secondary waves are responsible for up to 10% to 20% of the longitudinal and day‐to‐day variability. Overall, vertical propagating waves together with sidebands from DE3‐UFKW nonlinear interactions are responsible for 60% to 80% of the total variability, while geomagnetic and solar effects correlated with ap and F10.7 account for less than 20% of the variance.

Extreme stratospheric springs and their consequences for the onset of polar mesospheric clouds

We use data from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) explorer and from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) stratospheric analysis to explore the variability in the onset of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) season. Consistent with recently published results, we show that the early onset of the NH PMC season in 2013 was accompanied by a warm springtime stratosphere; conversely, we show that the late onset in 2008 coincides with a very cold springtime stratosphere. Similar stratospheric temperature anomalies for 1997 and 2011 also are connected either directly, through observed temperatures, or indirectly, through an early PMC onset, to conditions near the mesopause. These 4 years, 2008, 1997, 2011, and 2013 represent the extremes of stratospheric springtime temperatures seen in the MERRA analysis and correspond to analogous extrema in planetary wave activity. The three years with enhanced planetary wave activity (1997, 2011 and 2013) are shown to coincide with the recently identified stratospheric Frozen In Anticyclone (FrIAC) phenomenon. FrIACs in 1997 and 2013 are associated with early PMC onsets; however, the dramatic FrIAC of 2011 is not. This may be because the 2011 FrIAC occurred too early in the spring. The link between NH PMC onset and stratospheric FrIAC occurrences represents a new mode of coupling between the stratosphere and mesosphere. Since FrIACs appear to be more frequent in recent years, we speculate that as a result, PMCs may occur earlier as well. Finally we compare the zonal mean zonal winds and observed gravity wave activity for the FrIACs of 2011 and 2013. We find no evidence that gravity wave activity was favored in 2013 relative to 2011, thus suggesting that direct forcing by planetary waves was the key mechanism in accelerating the cooling and moistening of the NH mesopause region in May of 2013.

Simulating influences of QBO phases and orographic gravity wave forcing on planetary waves in the middle atmosphere

Recently developed parameterization of stationary orographic gravity waves (OGWs) generated by the Earth’s topography was implemented into a general circulation model of the middle and upper atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of the zonal mean wind and amplitudes of stationary planetary waves and normal atmospheric modes with periods of 4–16 days at altitudes from the troposphere to the lower thermosphere in January for easterly and westerly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) including and excluding the stationary OGW parameterization. Simulations show that accounting dynamical and thermal effects of stationary OGWs can lead to substantial changes (up to 50–90 %) in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves. Amplitudes of westward travelling normal atmospheric modes change (up to 50–90 %) at different altitudes and latitudes of the northern hemisphere due to OGW effects. Transitions from the easterly to westerly QBO phases can change planetary wave amplitudes up to ±30–90 % at middle and high latitudes. These changes in PW amplitudes are consistent with distributions of EP-flux and refractive index under different QBO phases simulated including our parameterization of stationary OGWs.

Horizontal winds derived from the polar mesospheric cloud images as observed by the CIPS instrument on the AIM satellite

AbstractA cloud pattern matching technique is applied to polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) images taken by the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size instrument (CIPS) to infer the wind velocities in the mesopause region. CIPS measurements are analyzed to detect patterns that repeat from one orbit to the next but are displaced in location; the displacement provides a measure of the wind velocity. Pattern matching is achieved by resampling the CIPS data to longitude and latitude grids with the grid‐box size forced at ~5 km in both directions. The correlated patterns are searched within a geographic region referred to as a “frame” of ~500 km in longitude × 400 km in latitude. The histograms of the derived velocities indicate that easterly winds prevail, with a mean zonal wind of −20 to −15 m/s. Mean meridional winds are overall small, but in late summer the histogram indicated a poleward wind of ~20–30 m/s. The variability of CIPS cloud albedo on consecutive orbits is also examined at fixed geolocations. The statistical results suggest that ~86% of pairs underwent mean cloud albedo variation of < 50% on consecutive orbits, suggesting a moderate change. It is also found that the correlation of the cloud structures between two consecutive orbits at a fixed location is generally poor. These findings suggest that cloud patterns are subject to wind advection, but the cloud patches are more extended in size than the movement that occurs. Cloud voids are found to be more likely to remain at the same geolocations.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden‐Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations

AbstractAimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process‐oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large‐scale rainfall partition and low‐level mean zonal winds over the Indo‐Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low‐level relative humidity difference between high‐ and low‐rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud‐radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air‐sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

New estimates of tropical mean temperature trend profiles from zonal mean historical radiosonde and pilot balloon wind shear observations

AbstractEstimation of global scale trends and low‐frequency variability directly from radiosonde temperature records is challenging particularly in the Tropics due to large biases in the earlier parts of the records that need to be adjusted. Zonal mean zonal winds and wind shear observations are less prone to time varying biases. Together with a zonal mean reference temperature trend profile in the extratropics, the wind data can be used to estimate zonal mean temperature trends in the tropics using the thermal wind relationship. Earlier estimates using this approach for the periods 1970–2005 and 1979–2005 showed strong trend amplification in the tropical upper troposphere but also very large uncertainties because the latitude for the reference profile was chosen very far north and due to a lack of data in the tropics.Both sources of uncertainties have been addressed by (i) using reference temperature profiles from homogenized radiosonde temperature data sets, (ii) using the new Global historical Radiosondes and Tracked Balloons Archive on standard pressure levels (GRASP) as data source that includes not only radiosondes but also pilot balloons, and (iii) more accurate vertical discretization and sampling of wind data. The new trend estimates are extended back to 1958 and are considerably less noisy. Trend amplification factors between 1.3 and 2.6 were found in the intervals 1979–2005 and 1958–2010, respectively, when using wind shear information. The best estimates for the warming maxima in the upper tropical troposphere agree well with those directly from temperatures but tend to be located at higher altitudes.