Mean Zonal Wind Research Articles

Retreat of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon

AbstractThe Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) is the most prominent branch of the Asian summer monsoon system, which exhibits complex interannual variability. While previous studies have focused on the onset conditions of the BOBSM, less attention has been paid to the retreat of the BOBSM. In this study, we propose an index to measure BOBSM retreat, based on the mean zonal wind field at 850 hPa during the summer‐to‐winter monsoon transitions. By analyzing the climatic characteristics and interannual variability of the BOBSM retreat using this index, we find that BOBSM retreat exhibits significant interannual variability, which is closely related to the occurrence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Statistically, when a positive IOD event takes place in the boreal autumn season, the retreat of the summer monsoon occurs earlier correspondingly. Conversely, the retreat is delayed when a negative IOD event occurs.

Severe cold-water bleaching of a deep-water reef underscores future challenges for Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems

Elevated sea surface temperatures are causing an increase in coral bleaching events worldwide, and represent an existential threat to coral reefs. Early studies of Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems (MCEs) highlighted their potential as thermal refuges for shallow-water coral species in the face of predicted 21st century warming. However, recent genetic evidence implies that limited ecological connectivity between shallow- and deep-water coral communities inhibits their effectiveness as refugia; instead MCEs host distinct endemic communities that are ecologically significant in and of themselves. In either scenario, understanding the response of MCEs to climate change is critical given their ecological significance and widespread global distribution. Such an understanding has so far eluded the community, however, because of the challenges associated with long-term field monitoring, the stochastic nature of climatic events that drive bleaching, and the paucity of deep-water observations. Here we document the first observed cold-water bleaching of a mesophotic coral reef at Clipperton Atoll, a remote Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) atoll with high coral cover and a well-developed MCE. The severe bleaching (>70 % partially or fully bleached coral cover at 32 m depth) was driven by an anomalously shallow thermocline, and highlights a significant and previously unreported challenge for MCEs. Prompted by these observations, we compiled published cold-water bleaching events for the ETP, and demonstrate that the timing of past cold-water bleaching events in the ETP coincides with decadal oscillations in mean zonal wind strength and thermocline depth. The latter observation suggests any future intensification of easterly winds in the Pacific could be a significant concern for its MCEs. Our observations, in combination with recent reports of warm-water bleaching of Red Sea and Indian Ocean MCEs, highlight that 21st century MCEs in the Eastern Pacific face a two-pronged challenge: warm-water bleaching from above, and cold-water bleaching from below.

Investigation of the long-term variation of gravity waves over South America using empirical orthogonal function analysis

The spatial and temporal variability of gravity waves (GWs) potential energy (Ep) over South America (SA) was examined by analyzing temperature profiles obtained through the utilization of Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) from January 2002 to December 2021. We used the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to decompose GWs parameters and to analyze the GW variations over SA. We considered the first three eigenmodes (EOF1, EOF2, and EOF3) and their principal components (PC1, PC2, and PC3) of the EOF decomposition, which accounts for ∼80–90% of the total GWs variation over SA. Further, we analyzed the coupled variation of Ep and zonal mean wind (U) to verify their inter-dependencies using the singular value decomposition (SVD). The spatial variation showed that different localized mechanisms generate GWs at different sectors of the continent. The EOF1 of Ep comprised more than 50%, the EOF2 ∼20–25%, and the third ∼10–15% of the total GWs variation. The positive variation of GWs energy in the EOF1 is localized in the tropical region from the lower stratosphere to the lower mesosphere and southward below 1.5° S in the upper mesosphere. The spectral analysis of GWs energy showed biannual, annual, semiannual, and 11-year variations at different eigenvectors. Relative Ep (REp) showed an asymmetric hemispheric response to solar flux over South America. The REp response to QBO showed a modulating effect below 70 km and a positive response above 70 km. There is a good positive correlation between the temporal component of EOF2 of Ep and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at 30 mb and 50 mb in the PC2 temporal variation.Graphical

MS-GWaM: A Three-Dimensional Transient Gravity Wave Parametrization for Atmospheric Models

Abstract Parameterizations for internal gravity waves in atmospheric models are traditionally subject to a number of simplifications. Most notably, they rely on both neglecting wave propagation and advection in the horizontal direction (single-column assumption) and an instantaneous balance in the vertical direction (steady-state assumption). While these simplifications are well justified to cover some essential dynamic effects and keep the computational effort small, it has been shown that both mechanisms are potentially significant. In particular, the recently introduced Multiscale Gravity Wave Model (MS-GWaM) successfully applied ray-tracing methods in a novel type of transient but columnar internal gravity wave parameterization (MS-GWaM-1D). We extend this concept to a three-dimensional version of the parameterization (MS-GWaM-3D) to simulate subgrid-scale nonorographic internal gravity waves. The resulting global wave model—implemented into the weather forecast and climate code Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON)—contains three-dimensional transient propagation with accurate flux calculations, a latitude-dependent background source, and convectively generated waves. MS-GWaM-3D helps reproduce expected temperature and wind patterns in the mesopause region in the climatological zonal mean state and thus proves a viable internal gravity wave (IGW) parameterization. Analyzing the global wave action budget, we find that horizontal wave propagation is as important as vertical wave propagation. The corresponding wave refraction includes previously missing but well-known effects such as wave refraction into the polar jet streams. On a global scale, three-dimensional wave refraction leads to a horizontal flow-dependent redistribution of waves such that the structures of the zonal mean wave drag and consequently the zonal mean winds are modified.

Large-scale dynamic processes during the minor and major sudden stratospheric warming events in January–February 2023

Using data from reanalyses of meteorological information, this study examines peculiarities of the thermodynamic regime of the Arctic stratosphere in the winter season of 2022–2023. For this purpose, components of the global meridional circulation, wave activity fluxes, volume of polar stratospheric clouds type I (PSC NAT) are analyzed, as well as changes in these indicators during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events formed in January–February. The main features of the 2022–2023 winter season were the following: (1) a persistent cold stratospheric polar vortex was observed until mid-January, which caused the PSC NAT volume growth to its maximum values since 1980; (2) enhanced wave activity from mid-January led to the formation of a minor SSW at the end of January, an increase in the temperature of the lower stratosphere and a sharp reduction in PSC NAT; (3) a week of intensification of the polar vortex was then observed, followed by a weakening due to the next burst of wave activity propagation during the second SSW event in mid-February. This second SSW event was major, accompanied by a reversal of the mean zonal wind, which lasted until early March; (4) meridional heat flux in January–February 2023 was the highest since 1948, resulting in unprecedented warming of the lower Arctic stratosphere and preventing ozone depletion in March; (5) the minor SSW at the end of January was accompanied by a more intense change in the meridional circulation than the major SSW in mid-February. Formation of ozone mini-hole over Northern and Central Europe in February 2023 was associated with the strengthening of the anticyclone, leading to a stratopause elevation and northward transport of ozone-poor air masses from the subtropics along the western periphery of the anticyclone additionally to related to the major SSW temperature changes affected the ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere.

Development of WACCM With the Non‐Hydrostatic MPAS‐A Dynamical Core

AbstractThe non‐hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A) dynamical core has recently been adapted for the Specified Chemistry Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SC‐WACCM). In this study, the mean zonal wind and temperature climatology from SC‐WACCM/MPAS‐A is compared with the results from SC‐WACCM using the finite volume and spectral element dynamical cores, as well as the zonal wind and temperature climatology of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite mission and SABER. The simulations have been performed at horizontal resolutions of ∼100 km. Generally a good agreement is seen between the results from the three dynamical cores, which verifies that the new dynamical core is working with WACCM.

Intermittency of Gravity Wave Potential Energy Generated by Mountains Revealed from COSMIC-2 Observations

The intermittency of gravity wave potential energy (GWPE) in the upper troposphere and stratosphere was investigated using the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) temperature data over three typical mountains (Tibetan Plateau, Rocky Mountains, and Andes). These typical mountains have high sea level elevations but different land–sea contrast. The probability density function (PDF) of GWPE has the independent variable of GWPE and dependent variable of occurrence probability of GWPE over a region. Our analysis showed that the PDFs of GWPE over these three mountains roughly followed lognormal distributions in all heights and months. But, the key parameters (mean value and standard deviation) of lognormal distribution varied with heights and months. Above each mountain, the two key parameters exhibited similar temporal and spatial distributions. They had the largest values around the tropopause region, smaller values in the lower stratosphere (~20–30 km), and larger values in the upper stratosphere (~35–45 km). The intermittency of GWs is represented as the ratio of the GWPE at 50th percentile to the GWPE at 90th percentile. The weakest intermittency was at ~20–30 km (above the zonal mean winds of zero) over the Tibetan Plateau and Rocky Mountains in all months and over the Andes from November to March, respectively. Generally, the weakest intermittency (~0.4) occurred in the region where the key parameters were the smallest around summer. The key parameters of lognormal distribution were dominated by annual variation over the Andes throughout the height range, 8–50 km. However, the semiannual variations are also significant in the lower stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau and Rocky Mountains. The seasonal variations in the intermittency were not as obvious as those of the key parameters. The lognormal distributions and the intermittencies derived here provide an observational constraint on the tunable parameters in GW parameterization schemes.

Analytical and adaptable initial conditions for dry and moist baroclinic waves in the global hydrostatic model OpenIFS (CY43R3)

Abstract. This article presents a description of an analytical, stable, and flexible initial background state for both dry and moist baroclinic wave simulation on an aquaplanet in order to test the dynamical core of numerical weather prediction models and study the dynamics and evolution of extratropical cyclones. The initial background state is derived from an analytical zonal wind speed field, or jet structure, and the hydrostatic primitive equations for moist adiabatic and frictionless flow in spherical coordinates. A baroclinic wave can develop if a perturbation is added to the zonal wind speed field. This new baroclinic wave configuration has been implemented in the Open Integrated Forecasting System (OpenIFS) CY43R3, a global numerical weather prediction model developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. In total, seven parameters can be used to control the generation of the initial background state and hence the development of the baroclinic waves in the OpenIFS configuration file: the jet's width, the jet's height, the maximum zonal mean wind speed of the jet, the horizontal mean of the surface virtual temperature, the surface relative humidity, the lapse rate, and the surface roughness. Nine dry and nine moist initial background states have been generated to test their stability without perturbations. The meteorological stability of the initial states is investigated by examining the spatial distributions of the equivalent potential temperature, the absolute vorticity, and the Brunt–Väisälä frequency. Moreover, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the zonal wind speed has been computed to assess their numerical stability. Finally, six dry and six moist initial background state have been used with an unbalanced perturbation to ensure that the baroclinic life cycles that develop are physically realistic. The resulting baroclinic wave is shown to be sensitive to the jet's width. This configuration for baroclinic wave simulations will be used to create a large ensemble of baroclinic life cycles to study how extratropical cyclones may evolve in the future.

Long‐Term Variability and Tendencies in Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Winds From Meteor Radar Observations Over Esrange (67.9°N, 21.1°E)

AbstractLong‐term variabilities of monthly zonal (U) and meridional winds (V) in northern polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT, ∼80–100 km) are investigated using meteor radar observations during 1999–2022 over Esrange (67.9°N, 21.1°E). The summer (June‐August) mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow up to ∼88–90 km and eastward flow above this height. The summer mean meridional winds are equatorward with strong jet at ∼85–90 km and it weakens above this height. The U and V exhibit strong interannual variability that varies with altitude and month or season. The responses of U and V anomalies (from 1999 to 2003) to solar cycle (SC), Quasi Biennial Oscillation at 10 and 30 hPa, El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are analyzed using multiple linear regression. From analysis, significant regions of correlations between MLT winds and above potential drivers vary with altitude and month. The positive responses of U and V to SC (up to 15 m/s/100 sfu) indicates the strengthening of eastward winds in mid‐late winter, and poleward winds in late autumn and early winter. The O3 likely intensifies the eastward and poleward winds (∼100 m/s/ppmv) in winter and early spring. The CO2 significantly influence the eastward flow in late winter and summer (above ∼90–95 km) and strengthen the meridional circulation. The significant positive trend in U peaks in summer, late autumn and early winter (∼0.6 m/s/year), the negative trend in V is more prominent in summer above ∼90–95 km.

Wind Speed Variations at the Venus Cloud Top above Aphrodite Terra According to Long-term UV Observations by VMC/VENUS Express and UVI/AKATSUKI

Series of consecutive UV (365 nm) images of Venus cloud coverage provide a way to investigate dynamics of the mesosphere. An unprecedented series of such images was obtained by the VMC/Venus Express (ESA) and UVI/Akatsuki (JAXA) cameras from 2006 to 2022. At 10°S long-term variations in the mean zonal and meridional wind speed are observed with a period of 12.5 ± 0.5 years. Analysis of the of the mean zonal wind behavior around noon (12 ± 1 h) at phase angles of 60°–90° in limited observation time intervals shows that near the minimum of the long-term dependence the deceleration of the horizontal flow is observed above the highest part of Aphrodite Terra, Ovda Regio, for both VMC and UVI. Conversely, acceleration is observed above the Ovda Regio near the maximum of the long-term dependence. The considered longitudinal variations of the zonal wind speed extend from the equator to middle latitudes (0°–40°). The meridional wind speed shows longitudinal variations associated with the topography of the underlying surface, regardless of whether the horizontal flow is slowing down or accelerating above the highlands of Aphrodite Terra.

Long‐Term Variability of Mean Winds and Planetary‐Scale Waves Around Venusian Cloud Top Observed With Akatsuki/UVI

AbstractSince December 2015, Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) onboard Akatsuki has been observing Venus clouds at the wavelengths of 283 and 365 nm. Horizontal winds near the cloud top derived from the UVI images over ∼7 earth years are analyzed to elucidate spatial and temporal variability of the superrotation and planetary‐scale waves. Zonal winds averaged over the analysis period are asymmetric with respect to the equator, being faster in the southern hemisphere. This asymmetry varied temporarily and was occasionally reverted. Comparison of the winds from the two wavelengths suggests that it is uncertain whether the asymmetry is in the wind distribution or in the sensing altitude for winds. Mean zonal winds representing the superrotation exhibited broad low‐frequency variability with spectra resembling the red noise spectra. This is indicative of the presence of internal variability rather than responses to periodical external forcing. Planetary‐scale waves with zonal‐wavenumber 1 at periods around 4 and 5 days, which have been interpreted as equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, respectively, are quantified. While the ∼5‐day waves have nearly constant frequencies, the ∼4‐day waves have variable phase speeds that follow the superrotation speed. This result indicates that the ∼5‐day waves are likely to extend over a large depth below the cloud top and that the ∼4‐day waves are likely to be confined near the cloud top. Their possible generation mechanism through the coupling of Kelvin and Rossby waves is discussed. This study further reports wind variability of 10 to 15‐day periodicity, thermal‐tide structure, and comparison with minor species observations.

Influences of Different Factors on Gravity Wave Activity in the Lower Stratosphere of the Indian Region

The gravity wave (GW) potential energy (Ep) in the lower stratosphere (LS) of the altitude range between 20 and 30 km over the Indian region (60°E–100°E, 0°–30°N) is retrieved using the dry temperature profiles from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) radio occultation (RO) mission from December 2019 to November 2021. Through correlation analysis and dominance analysis (DA) methods, the impacts of multiple influencing factors on the local LS GW activity are quantified and compared. The results demonstrate that in the central and northern part of Indian region, the three factors, including the convective activity (using outgoing long-wave radiation as the proxy) mainly caused by the Indian summer monsoon, the mean zonal wind speed between 15 and 17 km, the height range where the maximum tropical easterly jet (TEJ) wind speed appears, and the mean zonal wind speed between 20 and 30 km, have the greatest impacts on the LS GW activity. In the southern part of the Indian Peninsula and over the Indian Ocean, the mean zonal wind shear between 20 and 30 km plays a dominant role in the LS GW activity, which is due to the fact that the GW energy can be attenuated by large background wind shears. It can be concluded that the LS GW activity in the Indian region is mainly influenced by the Indian summer monsoon, the TEJ, and the wind activity in the LS, while over different local areas, differences exist in which factors are the dominant ones.

Conjugate hemispheric response of Earth’s ionosphere due to 2019 Antarctic minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW): Comparison with 2013 Arctic major SSW

In this paper, we attempt to compare the Antarctic SSW of 2019 with the Arctic SSW of 2013. Despite being a minor SSW, the rare Antarctic event of September 2019 caused a significant enhancement of stratospheric temperature at high latitudes with more temperature deviation than the Arctic major SSW of 2013. On the basis of the duration and extent of stratospheric zonal mean zonal wind, the 2019 SSW is comparable to major SSWs. An exceptionally strong wave 1 planetary wave was observed during the 2019 SSW. We have investigated the response of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during both the SSWs over two low mid-latitude locations Okinawa and Darwin, which form magnetic conjugate pair. The extent of maximum ionospheric deviations during the 2019 SSW is almost comparable to the 2013 SSW in their respective hemispheres. We have observed mostly night time enhancement in TEC during the Arctic SSW, while daytime enhancement is noted during the Antarctic SSW. Hemispheric asymmetry is observed during both the SSWs. Minor geomagnetic storm has been noticed coinciding with each SSW during different phases of the warming. The SSW, solar flux, and storm contribution on the TEC have been calculated during both the SSWs, which shows clear contribution of SSW on the total TEC despite the presence of storm and during moderately high solar activity. We have also investigated the foF2 variations from ionosonde and IRI-16 at the same two locations. The peak electron density from ionosonde responds to the warming in a manner similar to TEC. The foF2 of IRI-16 exhibits overestimation during daytime and underestimation during nighttime on quiet days during low solar activity (2019), while during moderate solar activity (2013), it overestimates during morning hours. However, it can not predict the enhancements of foF2 during SSWs.

A study of Jupiter's UV Great Dark Spot and tropopause to stratosphere winds in the high northern latitudes as seen by Cassini imaging

Images of Jupiter taken during the year 2000 Cassini flyby revealed the early stages and evolution of a high northern-latitude UV Great Dark Spot over a three-month period. They also provided a window on the circulation of Jupiter's polar stratosphere. Jupiter's rarely-detected UV Great Dark Spot (UVGDS) is unusual in several respects. It is an ephemeral feature, twice appearing as an oval with size and shape similar to Jupiter's Great Red Spot (GRS). Like the GRS, it is an anticyclonic feature. It is unlike the GRS in that: (1) A gas, and/or very small particles (radius < < 1 micro meter, of unknown composition but likely hydrocarbon) is responsible for its contrast with its surroundings; (2) It appears to be a shallow feature, confined to the stratosphere; (3) It evolves (moves in System III longitude, elongates and tilts) over a period of months; and (4) It may be produced by an auroral event as inferred by its proximity to the southern extent of Jupiter's main auroral oval. However, we did not identify a specific auroral trigger event. We measure the rotation rate for the UVGDS to have been ∼20° per Earth day. To investigate the dynamical regime of this feature, we applied an automated cloud feature tracking algorithm to Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem images of Jupiter's northern hemisphere (30°N – 80°N) in the near-IR continuum, methane band, and ultraviolet filters. From these images we were able to derive zonal wind profiles from the middle troposphere cloud tops to the lower stratosphere and track the evolution of the UV Great Dark Spot. Differences in mean zonal wind speed between the continuum and methane band filters indicate a weakening of jets with altitude as far north as 75°N latitude at the altitudes sampled by these filters. We also observe notable differences between the ultraviolet and the other two filters: (1) Winds are significantly weaker and mostly westward in the ultraviolet relative to lower altitudes at all latitudes equatorward of 60°N latitude; (2) Poleward of 60°N latitude, winds observed in the ultraviolet may be faster than those observed in the continuum and methane bands, though we are less confident in this result as Jupiter's haze morphology and the lack of small, discrete, unambiguous trackable features present unique challenges to obtaining reliable mean zonal winds in the ultraviolet at high latitudes.

Interannual and Interhemispheric Comparisons of Q2DW Bimodal and Unimodal Structures During the 2003–2020 Summer Period

AbstractBy analyzing Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry and the Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications Version 2 reanalysis observations from 2003 to 2020, we found that the structural variation of the westward quasi‐2‐day wave (Q2DW) is related to the mean zonal wind in the background atmosphere, and the zonal wavenumber 3 (W3) is more affected by the background atmosphere than the zonal wavenumber 4 (W4). Our study focuses on the spatial structure of ∼50–95 km and ∼50°S–50°N. The spatial structure of W3 and W4 in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is unimodal and bimodal, while the bimodal structure of W3 in the Southern Hemisphere is more obvious in some years. In the unimodal structure, W3 has a higher (altitude) peak in the Southern Hemisphere (∼82 km) than in the Northern Hemisphere (∼70 km), while W4 peaks at ∼70 km in both hemispheres. In the bimodal structure, W3 in the Southern Hemisphere fluctuates mostly at ∼82 km, followed by ∼68 km, while W3 in the Northern Hemisphere fluctuates mostly at ∼70 km, followed by ∼82 km. The spatial structure of W4 in both hemispheres fluctuates mainly at ∼70 km, followed by ∼82 km. In addition, W3 is stronger in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere, W4 is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere, and peak amplitudes of both W3 and W4 are larger in a bimodal structure than unimodal structure. The diagnostic analysis shows that the interannual and interhemispheric structure changes of Q2DWs may be due to the larger mean flow instabilities, background winds, and refractive index in the mesosphere, which make the bimodal structure of W3 and W4 obtain larger energy for propagation and amplification, resulting in higher (altitude) and larger amplitudes. This indicates that the background atmosphere of the mesosphere can affect the spatial structure of Q2DWs.

Two Types of Mid-High-Latitude Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere during Austral Summer

Abstract Using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the mid-high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere during austral summer is studied. Two types of 10–30-day eastward- and westward-propagating ISO at mid-high latitudes are extracted by extended empirical orthogonal functions. The analysis of wave activity flux reveals that the energy sources of the eastward-propagating wave train are in the southwest Pacific and southern Indian Ocean, and the westward-propagating wave train is over the east coast of South America. The diagnosis of geopotential height tendency shows that the zonal gradient of ISO relative vorticity guided by mean zonal wind plays a major role in the eastward propagation of the wave train, while the meridional gradient of mean relative vorticity and geostrophic vorticity guided by ISO meridional wind plays a major role in the westward propagation of the wave train. Energy analysis shows that the amplitude enhancement over the South Pacific is due to the ISO disturbance gaining energy from the mean flow. The eastward-propagating ISO obtains energy from the mean flow through kinetic and potential energy conversion, while the westward-propagating ISO cannot obtain energy through potential energy conversion. The surface air temperature and precipitation in South America are affected by the circulation and propagation corresponding to both types of ISO. The useful forecasting skills by the subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting project for eastward- and westward-propagating types can reach to 17 days, while the potential forecasting skills improve to 20 and 19 days, respectively. Significance Statement The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) has important effects on regional weather and climate, and we focus on the ISO over mid-high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, which has been paid little attention. We reveal two leading types of the mid-high-latitude ISO during austral summer, namely, the eastward- and westward-propagating types. Also, the characteristics and effects of the two types are explored. To understand their dynamical process, the geopotential height tendency and energy conversion are diagnosed. It is also found that the two ISO types can be predicted up to 17 days in advance by the subseasonal-to-seasonal project, which may provide guidance for the extended-range forecasts.

Characteristic Analysis of the 10–30-Day Intraseasonal Oscillation over Mid-High-Latitude Eurasia in Boreal Summer

The aim of this study is to investigate the characteristics of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) with a 10–30-day cycle over mid-high-latitude Eurasia during boreal summer. The leading mode of this ISO is determined using an extended empirical orthogonal function analysis. Through a phase composite analysis, it is observed that a southeastward-propagating wave train with a quasi-barotropic structure is present in Eurasia. The dynamical mechanism and energy conversion affecting its propagation are also analyzed. The negative (positive) temperature tendency appears in the southeastern part of the temperature anomaly in the lower troposphere (upper troposphere), resulting in further southeastward displacement of the temperature perturbation. A diagnosis of temperature tendency shows that the main cause of the southeastward movement is the advection of anomalous temperature by the mean zonal wind. The energy conversion analysis reveals that by converting kinetic energy and potential energy, the ISO perturbation acquires energy from the summertime mean flow during its southeastward movement.

Impact of Zonal and Meridional Atmospheric Flow on Surface Climate and Extremes in the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) describes the annular or zonal component of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics and influences surface climate across the SH. Although this annular flow is dominant in austral summer, in other seasons considerable zonal asymmetries are evident, reflecting a zonal wave 3 (ZW3) pattern. We define an index representing asymmetric flow using the first two leading modes of meridional wind variability in the SH. Two orthogonal ZW3 indices are used together to capture longitudinal shifts in the wave train and their connection to tropical convection. We compare the impacts of the SAM and ZW3 on surface climate by examining composites of temperature and precipitation fields during each season. Impacts on mean and extreme surface climates are assessed. We find that the SAM and ZW3 are not clearly separated modes, but rather, ZW3 modulates the impact of the SAM across the midlatitudes. The SAM influence on regional temperature and precipitation is similar for both mean impacts and extremes. The ZW3 influence on extremes is more varied across indices and does not always reflect the ZW3 impact on mean fields. Notably, amplified ZW3 activity has a significant influence on the number of midlatitude fronts and frontal rainfall, highlighting the importance of considering ZW3 when exploring the surface climate impacts of large-scale SH circulation states, particularly for nonsummer seasons. Significance Statement Variations in the strength and position of the midlatitude westerly winds have a strong influence on surface climates. While these winds are predominantly zonally symmetric in the Southern Hemisphere, few studies to date have explored the role of the asymmetric component of this circulation, particularly for seasons outside of summer. By defining two new indices of meridional circulation, this study reveals new important impacts on temperature, rainfall, and the likelihood of extreme climates in regions of southern Australia and South America, and sea ice regions around Antarctica. These findings question the validity of considering only zonal-mean winds for climate studies of the Southern Hemisphere and have important implications for the seasonal forecasting and predictability of extreme climate events in the near future.

QBO Phase Synchronization in CMIP6 Historical Simulations Attributed to Ozone Forcing

AbstractTropical stratospheric variability is investigated in ensembles of historical simulations performed by nine models for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Realizations from all the models feature a reasonable quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Variability in the zonal mean zonal winds at the equator is found to be coherent among realizations when a model prescribes the CMIP6 ozone forcing. No such coherence is found when a model simulates ozone. The coherence results in an ensemble mean QBO signal with amplitude, depending on the model, 50%–80% of the mean QBO amplitude from a single realization from the same model. The ensemble mean signal is due to synchronization of QBO phases, attributed to the CMIP6 protocol including a QBO signal in the ozone forcing. Coherence in models using the CMIP6 ozone is, therefore, artificial and individual realizations from these models are not completely independent.

Evaluation of the Horizontal Winds Simulated by IAP-HAGCM through Comparison with Beijing MST Radar Observations

The performance of general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating horizontal winds is important because the distribution and variation in horizontal winds are central to investigating atmospheric dynamic characteristics and processes. Also, horizontal wind data can be used to extract some of the required information on gravity waves, tides, and planetary waves. In this context, the present paper evaluates the capability of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics atmospheric general circulation model high-top version (IAP-HAGCM) in simulating the horizontal winds and tides of the troposphere and lower stratosphere by presenting a climatological and statistical comparison against observations of the powerful Beijing mesosphere–stratosphere–troposphere (MST) radar (39.78°N, 116.95°E) during 2012–2014. The results illustrated that the IAP-HAGCM can successfully reproduce the time–altitude distribution of the monthly mean zonal wind and diurnal tide amplitude, albeit with some underestimation. The mean correlation coefficients and root-mean-square error for the zonal (meridional) winds were 0.94 (0.73) and 6.60 m s−1 (2.90 m s–1), respectively. Additionally, the IAP-HAGCM can capture the temporal variation in both the zonal and meridional winds. It is worth noting that, compared with the seven coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the IAP-HAGCM performs better in meridional wind simulations below 15 km. However, there are discrepancies in altitudinal ranges with large wind velocities, such as the westerly jet, in the transition region of the troposphere and stratosphere, and in February, April, July, and September. It is suggested that model users should take advantage of the model’s simulation ability by combining this information regarding when and where it is optimal with their own research purposes. Moreover, the evaluation results in this paper can also serve as a reference for guiding improvements of the IAP-HAGCM.