Summer Mean Surface Research Articles

Quantifying the emissions and air quality co-benefits of lower-carbon electricity production

The impact of air emissions from electricity generation depends on the spatial distribution of power plants and electricity dispatch decisions. Thus, any realistic evaluation of the air quality impacts of lower-carbon electricity must account for the spatially heterogeneous changes in associated emissions. Here, we present an analysis of the changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) associated with current, expected, and proposed energy efficiency and renewable energy policies in Wisconsin. We simulate the state's electricity system and its potential response to policies using the MyPower electricity-sector model, which calculates plant-by-plant reductions in NOx and SO2 emissions. We find that increased efficiency and renewable generation in a 2024 policy scenario substantially reduce statewide emissions of NOx and SO2 (55% and 59% compared to 2008, 32% and 33% compared to 2024 business-as-usual, BAU). PM2.5 is quantified across the Great Lakes region using the EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for some emissions scenarios. We find that summer mean surface concentrations of sulfate and PM2.5 are less sensitive to policy changes than emissions. In the 2024 policy scenario, sulfate aerosol decreases less than 3% over most of the region relative to BAU and 3–13% relative to 2008 over most of Wisconsin. The lower response of these secondary aerosols arises from chemical and meteorological processing of electricity emissions, and mixing with other emission sources. An analysis of model performance and response to emission reduction at five sites in Wisconsin shows good model agreement with observations and a high level of spatial and temporal variability in sulfate and PM2.5 reductions. In this case study, the marginal improvements in emissions and air quality associated with carbon policies were less than the technology, renewable, and conservation assumptions under a business-as-usual scenario. However, this analysis for Wisconsin shows how integrated modeling can quantify the emission and air quality co-benefits associated with carbon reduction measures, and this approach can be applied to other regions and larger geographical scales.

Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change

The uncertainties in the regional climate models (RCMs) are evaluated by analyzing the driving global data of ERA40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 general circulation models, and the downscaled data of two RCMs (RegCM4 and PRECIS) over South-Asia for the present day simulation (1971–2000) of South-Asian summer monsoon. The differences between the observational datasets over South-Asia are also analyzed. The spatial and the quantitative analysis over the selected climatic regions of South-Asia for the mean climate and the inter-annual variability of temperature, precipitation and circulation show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different driving datasets and seems to come from the physics parameterization of the RCMs. The spatial gradients and topographically-induced structure of climate are generally captured and simulated values are within a few degrees of the observed values. The biases in the RCMs are not consistent with the biases in the driving fields and the models show similar spatial patterns after downscaling different global datasets. The annual cycle of temperature and rainfall is well simulated by the RCMs, however the RCMs are not able to capture the inter-annual variability. ECHAM5 is also downscaled for the future (2071–2100) climate under A1B emission scenario. The climate change signal is consistent between ECHAM5 and RCMs. There is warming over all the regions of South-Asia associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the increase in summer mean surface air temperature by the end of the century ranges from 2.5 to 5 °C, with maximum warming over north western parts of the domain and 30 % increase in rainfall over north eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Varying responses in mean surface air temperature from land use/cover change in different seasons over northern China

Research on the impacts of land use change on climate change has become a foremost topic in the field of global climate change research. Although many researchers have studied the impacts of LUCC, data related to these impacts on the Chinese climate system remain sparse because of the diversity of China’s regional changes in land use, especially related to agricultural changes. Therefore, additional studies are needed that address regional LUCC in combination with climate modeling. Two simulations with current land use/cover patterns and potential natural vegetation cover were used to investigate the impact of LUCC on surface air temperature in northern China. Simulations of 11years of climate in northern China (1 January 1990–31 December 2000) were carried out using Regional Environment Integrated Modeling System 2.0 (RIEMS2.0). The results showed that: (1) When potential natural vegetation cover types were changed to current vegetation cover types, mean summer surface air temperature decreased in the central northeastern area, eastern Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, but increased in Shanxi, Henan and Anhui provinces. Also, surface air temperature changed significantly on a local scale in the central northeastern area, central Henan Province and eastern Gansu Province (P<0.05). In winter, major portions of the study area exhibited non-significant decreases in mean surface air temperature. (2) In summer, a temperate forests removal simulation in northern China behaved more like a tropical forests removal simulation. In winter, removal of the temperate forests in northern China behaved more like a boreal forests removal simulation. In model grids where forest were converted to cropland, the net radiation absorbed has less influence on surface air temperature at lower vs. higher latitudes. Further, latent heat flux has a stronger influence on surface air temperature at lower latitudes.

Reply to comment by J. Marra on “Measuring primary production rates in the ocean: Enigmatic results between incubation and non‐incubation methods at Station ALOHA”

Reply to comment by J. Marra on “Measuring primary production rates in the ocean: Enigmatic results between incubation and non‐incubation methods at Station ALOHA”

Distribution of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers in surface sediments of Lake Qinghai and surrounding soil

Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are increasingly used as proxies for paleoclimate studies of marine and lacustrine environments. While GDGT-based proxies have been applied to a number of lake environments globally, little is known about the distribution of GDGTs on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. We have investigated the isoprenoid GDGTs (iGDGTs) and branched GDGTs (bGDGTs) in Lake Qinghai sediments and the surrounding surface soil in order to examine their potential use as paleoclimate proxies on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results show that (i) the values of the iGDGT/bGDGT ratio for surrounding soil were at the higher end among globally distributed soils and consequently BIT values (avg. 0.71) at the lower end, (ii) the TEX86 values decreased while the MBT and CBT values increased along an onshore soil–nearshore sediment–offshore sediment transect, (iii) the TEX86 values for the offshore sediments were almost identical and their inferred temperatures were close to mean summer surface water temperature and (iv) the bGDGT-inferred mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and pH for soil were consistent with measured MAAT and pH. However, the CBT-inferred pH for offshore sediments seemed inconsistent with the pH of lake water or sediment. Our results suggest that (i) the higher pH may be an important factor leading to the higher iGDGT/bGDGT values (and lower BIT values) in surrounding surface soil, (ii) both iGDGTs and bGDGTs may originate from terrestrial input and in situ production for this saline lake, especially for nearshore sediments. However, for offshore sediments, terrestrial iGDGT input seems minor, and TEX86 may be useful for paleoclimate studies of Lake Qinghai.

Summer Extreme Temperatures over East China during 1984–2004 Simulated by LASG/IAP Regional Climate Model CREM

The authors examine extreme summer temperatures over East China during 1984–2004 using a regional climate model named CREM (the Climate version of Regional Eta-coordinate Model), which was developed by LASG/IAP. The results show that the main features of the extreme summer temperatures over East China are reproduced well by CREM, and the skill for the minimum temperature is higher than that for the maximum temperature, especially along the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHV). The simulated extreme temperatures are lower than those of observation, especially for the maximum temperature. The bias of extreme temperatures is consistent with the cold bias of the climatological mean summer surface air temperature. The skill of the model in simulating the interannual variability of extreme temperatures increases from north to south. The simulated interannual variation of the minimum temperature is more reasonable than the maximum temperature. The underestimation of net solar radiation at the surface leads to a cold bias of the climatological mean temperature. Furthermore, the model underestimates the light and moderate rain, while overestimates heavy rain. It causes the simulated minimum temperature more reasonable than the maximum temperature.

The Gamburtsev mountains and the origin and early evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Ice-sheet development in Antarctica was a result of significant and rapid global climate change about 34 million years ago. Ice-sheet and climate modelling suggest reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide (less than three times the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million by volume) that, in conjunction with the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, led to cooling and glaciation paced by changes in Earth's orbit. Based on the present subglacial topography, numerical models point to ice-sheet genesis on mountain massifs of Antarctica, including the Gamburtsev mountains at Dome A, the centre of the present ice sheet. Our lack of knowledge of the present-day topography of the Gamburtsev mountains means, however, that the nature of early glaciation and subsequent development of a continental-sized ice sheet are uncertain. Here we present radar information about the base of the ice at Dome A, revealing classic Alpine topography with pre-existing river valleys overdeepened by valley glaciers formed when the mean summer surface temperature was around 3 degrees C. This landscape is likely to have developed during the initial phases of Antarctic glaciation. According to Antarctic climate history (estimated from offshore sediment records) the Gamburtsev mountains are probably older than 34 million years and were the main centre for ice-sheet growth. Moreover, the landscape has most probably been preserved beneath the present ice sheet for around 14 million years.

A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change

AbstractHollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., and Schirripa, M. J. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584–1594. A framework is outlined for a unified approach to forecasting the implications of climate change on production of marine fish. The framework involves five steps: (i) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success, growth, and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations, (ii) assessment of the feasibility of downscaling implications of climate scenarios derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for regional ecosystems to select and estimate relevant environmental variables, (iii) evaluation of climate model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of study, (iv) extraction of environmental variables from climate scenarios and incorporation into projection models for fish and shellfish, and (v) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production under a changing ecosystem. This framework was applied to forecast summer sea surface temperature in the Bering Sea from 2001 to 2050. The mean summer surface temperature was predicted to increase by 2°C by 2050. The forecasting framework was also used to estimate the effects of climate change on production of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) through projected changes in cross-shelf transport of larvae in the Bering Sea. Results suggest that climate change will lead to a modest increase in the production of strong year classes of northern rock sole.

Changes in late-Neoglacial climate inferred from former equilibrium-line altitudes in the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Arctic Canada

Regional-scale spatial variation in the change in equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) trend surface in the Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI), Arctic Canada between the `Little Ice Age' (LIA) and 1960 corresponds to Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) representing specific patterns of summer climate variability found in the modern record. Extreme warm (1953—1962) and cold (1965—1974) decades in the modern record were used as modern analogues of climatic conditions during the early twentieth century and the LIA, respectively. Because of the minimal influence of precipitation during both extreme decades, temperature is the variable upon which the fluctuation of the ELA is dependent. Hence, the ELA Δ h pattern describes the spatial pattern of change in SAT across the QEI between the LIA and 1960. This pattern is consistent with the primary mode of variability of mean summer surface air temperature (SAT) in the modern record (ie, EOF-1, 1949—2002), the positive (negative) phase of which is strongly in place during the extreme warm (cold) decade. SAT anomalies in the QEI during the warm (cold) decade are positively correlated with a weak (strong) QEI-distal (QEIproximal) polar vortex, higher (lower) than normal SSTs in the North Atlantic, and one of the lowest (highest) periods of sea-ice extent during the twentieth century. The climatic conditions during the cold decade are believed to describe conditions, which if sustained, would lead to a LIA-type cold episode capable of long-term snowline lowering and perennial snow/ice expansion. The climatic conditions during the warm decade represent possible modern analogues for those that might have occurred during the early twentieth century in the Canadian High Arctic, which led to a substantial reduction in perennial snow/ice.

Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

The PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which is nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3P, a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, is employed to simulate the baseline (1961–1990) climate for evaluation of model’s capacity of simulating present climate and analyze the future climate change responses in the time-slice of 2071–2100 (2080s) under SRES B2 scenario over China relative to baseline average. It is indicated from the comparison of the simulated baseline climate with in situ observation that PRECIS can simulate the local distribution characteristics of surface air temperature over China quite well; generally speaking, the simulation for precipitation in the north of China and in winter is better than in the south of China and in summer, respectively; the simulation of precipitation in summer is sensitive to topography, and the simulated precipitation values are lower than observations over southeast coastal areas. It is shown from the analyses on the simulated climate change responses in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to base-line that there would be an obvious surface air temperature increase in the north of China relative to that in the south of China, and especially in Northwest China and Northeast China, the amplitude of summer mean surface air temperature increments could reach 5°C; there would be an overall increase of the simulated precipitation in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario over most areas of China, while there would be significant precipitation decreases in South China in winter; there would be obvious precipitation decreases in Northeast China and North China in summer with high surface air temperature increase. However, it presents an obvious precipitation increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer.

High-Resolution Estimation of Summer Surface Air Temperature in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

In the Canadian high Arctic patterns of temperature are poorly resolved at the mesoscale. This issue is addressed using a model to estimate mean summer surface air temperature at high spatial resolution. The effects on temperature of site elevation and coastal proximity were selected for parameterization. The spatial basis is a 1km resolution digital elevation model of the region. Lapse rates and resultant wind estimates were obtained from upper-air ascents. These were used to estimate the change in temperature with elevation based on the digital elevation model. Advection effects are handled using resultant winds, air temperature above the ocean, and distance to coast. Model results for 14-day runs were compared to observed data. The two effects captured much of the mesoscale variability of the Arctic climate, as shown by verification with point observational data. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the model to determine response to alterations in lapse rate calculation, sea surface temperature, and wind field generation. The model was most sensitive to the lapse rate calculation. The best results were obtained using a moderate lapse rate calculation, moderate wind field, and variable sea surface temperature.

Pliocene palaeotemperature reconstruction for the southern North Sea Based on Ostracoda

The development of a large northeastern Atlantic shelf ostracod database has confirmed that an intrinsic relationship exists between watermass temperature and the spatial (latitudinal) distribution of benthonic shelf Ostracoda. A second Pliocene ostracod database, using assemblages from four boreholes in The Netherlands and a number of localities from the East Anglian Neogene succession has also been constructed. A quantitative method of modern analogues and the Squared Chord Distance dissimilarity coefficient has been employed as a means of calculating the level of similarity between Recent and Neogene assemblages and, therefore, to aid in the reconstruction of palaeotemperatures in the southern North Sea Basin during the Pliocene. The results, in the form of contoured dissimilarity values, indicate the presence of at least seven palaeoceanographical climatic phases between ca. 5.2 and 1.6 Ma BP. An early Pliocene cooling phase (ecozone A), in which the fauna is dominated by the cryophilic species; Palmenella limicola (Norman), Elofsonella concinna (Jones), Robertsonites tuberculatus (Sars), Neomonoceratina tsurugasakensis (Tabuki) and Acanthocythereis dunelmensis (Norman), supervenes a period of stable subtropical conditions in the Miocene. A ‘mid’ Pliocene warming phase (ecozone B), which has been documented throughout the North Atlantic, can be recognized in the faunal composition of the sublittoral ostracod assemblages of both The Netherlands and East Anglia. A hiatus between the Coralline and Waltonian crags is thought to be associated with a deterioration in climatic conditions. Recent analogues to The Netherlands faunas of ecozone C (first phase late Pliocene cooling, ca. 2.9 Ma BP) indicate a decrease of approximately 5–6°C in mean summer surface temperatures. A return to elevated temperatures, of a Mauritanian aspect, can be seen in the fauna of the FA2 zone and Waltonian Crag. This amelioration of climate occurred prior to the Praetiglian cold phase (second phase late Pliocene cooling, ca. 2.4 Ma BP) which again saw the reintroduction of cryophilic species including Baffinicythere howei Hazel, Fimarchinella logani (Brady, Crosskey and Robertson) and Hemicythere emarginata (Sars), into the southern North Sea during the Newbournian and Butleyan stages. The final phase of the latest Pliocene (third phase late Pliocene cooling) is only documented in the ostracod fauna of the Norwich Crag. Evidence in the covariance of Loxoconchidae and Norwegian provincial cryophilic species, indicates that the Polar Front may have been as much as 2000 km further south during the deposition of the Chillesford Sand Member (Norwich Crag Fm., ca. 2.0-1.6 Ma BP).