Changes In Mean State Research Articles

Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble

Abstract. The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.

A Preliminary Study In Vertical Distribution Of Planktonic Foraminifera And Marine Ecological Conditions Of Simeulue Sub-Basin, Aceh, Indonesia

A marine sediment core EW17-09 (03˚ 28’358” latitude and 96˚ 18’788” longitude, 870 m water depth, 390 cm core length) was retrieved from the western Sumatra, Simeulue sub-basin, Indonesia. Simeulue sub-basin are situated in eastern Indian Ocean, western part of Aceh Province, which is one of the outer islands in Indonesia. This sub-basin is influenced by adjacent lands in response to tectonic and climate dynamics. The dynamics of marine ecological conditions in the past is an urgent need for providing an analogy to the changes in the future conditions. In this study, the ecological conditions were examined by identifying the vertical distribution of planktonic foraminifera assemblages. This preliminary study demonstrated the presence of Globigerinoides ruber, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Pulleniatina obliquiloculata, Globigerina calida calida, Globigerinoides elongates, Globigerinoides cyclostomus and Globigerinoides sacculiferus in the samples. The assemblages indicate warm water conditions prevailed in the Simeulue sub-basin during the deposition of the samples. However, subtle ecological changes might have occurred in response to the dynamic of thermocline layer. Cluster analysis of planktonic foraminifera abundance and diversity resulted in three groups showing different ecological conditions. Warm water conditions, high salinity, deeper thermocline with moderate sedimentation disturbance prevailed during the deposition of lower part of the core. Oligotropic water conditions with higher temperature, lower salinity, shallower thermocline layer, and moderate sedimentation disturbance predominated during the deposition of the middle part of the core. The paleooceanography conditions of the upper part of the core are comparable to the lower part. Nevertheless, there are a shoaling of the thermocline in the end of the period. These conditions may indicate an increase in upwelling fluctuations and may represent a change in the IOD-like mean state of the Indian Ocean.

Assessing the impact of suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability in a coupled climate model

The Southern Ocean exerts a strong influence on global climate, regulating the storage and transport of heat, freshwater and carbon throughout the world’s oceans. While the majority of previous studies focus on how wind changes influence Southern Ocean circulation patterns, here we set out to explore potential feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere. To isolate the role of oceanic variability on Southern Hemisphere climate, we perform coupled climate model experiments in which Southern Ocean variability is suppressed by restoring sea surface temperatures (SST) over 40°–65°S to the model’s monthly mean climatology. We find that suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability does not impact the Southern Annular Mode, suggesting air–sea feedbacks do not play an important role in the persistence of the Southern Annular Mode in our model. Suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability does lead to robust mean-state changes in SST and sea ice. Changes in mixed layer processes and convection associated with the SST restoring lead to SST warming and a sea ice decline in southern high latitudes, and SST cooling in midlatitudes. These results highlight the impact non-linear processes can have on a model’s mean state, and the need to consider these when performing simulations of the Southern Ocean.

Smoother versus sharper Gulf Stream and Kuroshio sea surface temperature fronts: effects on cyclones and climatology

Abstract. The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions feature strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients that influence cyclone development and the storm track. Previous studies showed that smoothing the SSTs in either the North Atlantic or North Pacific yields a reduction in cyclone activity, surface heat fluxes, and precipitation, as well as a southward shift of the storm track and the upper-level jet. To what extent these changes are attributable to changes in individual cyclone behaviour, however, remains unclear. Comparing simulations with realistic and smoothed SSTs in the atmospheric general circulation model AFES, we find that the intensification of individual cyclones in the Gulf Stream or Kuroshio region is only marginally affected by reducing the SST gradient. In contrast, we observe considerable changes in the climatological mean state as well as a reduced cyclone activity in the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks that are shifted equatorward in both basins. The upper-level jet in the Atlantic also shifts equatorward, while the jet in the Pacific strengthens in its climatological position and extends further east. Surface heat fluxes, specific humidity, and precipitation also respond strongly to the smoothing of the SST, with a considerable decrease in their mean values on the warm side of the SST front. This decrease is more pronounced in the Gulf Stream than in the Kuroshio region, due to the larger decrease in SST along the Gulf Stream SST front. Considering the differences of the different variables occurring within/outside of a 750 km radius of any cyclone over their entire lifetime, we find that cyclones play only a secondary role in explaining the differences in the mean state between the smoothed and realistic SST experiments.

Correction to: Intensification and Northward extension of Northwest Pacific anomalous anticyclone in El Niño decaying mid-summer: an energetic perspective

The Northwest Pacific (NWP) anomalous anticyclone (AAC) intensifies and extends northward from El Nino decaying early to mid-summer, despite decaying El Nino-induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, North Atlantic and subtropical NWP. The present study suggests the intra-seasonal variations of AAC are induced by local mean state changes and investigates the underlying mechanisms from the perspective of energetics. Compared with early summer, the efficiency of dry energy conversion from the mean flow to El Nino-excited AAC pattern increases in El Nino decaying mid-summer. The moist feedback over subtropical NWP is also enhanced in El Nino decaying mid-summer due to the onset of the climatological NWP summer monsoon. Both of them contribute to the intensification of El Nino-excited AAC pattern. Moreover, mean state changes over East Asia–NWP from early to mid-summer are found in favor of the northward shift of the preferred latitude of the circulation anomalies. Thus, the El Nino-excited AAC pattern are more northward-extended in El Nino decaying mid-summer. Empirical orthogonal function analyses further confirm that the northward extension of El Nino-excited AAC pattern stems from changes of local internal dynamic mode. The present study highlights that both the El Nino-induced SST anomalies and local atmospheric internal dynamics are of paramount importance for the intra-seasonal variations of AAC in El Nino decaying summer.

Intensification and Northward extension of Northwest Pacific anomalous anticyclone in El Niño decaying mid-summer: an energetic perspective

The Northwest Pacific (NWP) anomalous anticyclone (AAC) intensifies and extends northward from El Niño decaying early to mid-summer, despite decaying El Niño-induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, North Atlantic and subtropical NWP. The present study suggests the intra-seasonal variations of AAC are induced by local mean state changes and investigates the underlying mechanisms from the perspective of energetics. Compared with early summer, the efficiency of dry energy conversion from the mean flow to El Niño-excited AAC pattern increases in El Niño decaying mid-summer. The moist feedback over subtropical NWP is also enhanced in El Niño decaying mid-summer due to the onset of the climatological NWP summer monsoon. Both of them contribute to the intensification of El Niño-excited AAC pattern. Moreover, mean state changes over East Asia–NWP from early to mid-summer are found in favor of the northward shift of the preferred latitude of the circulation anomalies. Thus, the El Niño-excited AAC pattern are more northward-extended in El Niño decaying mid-summer. Empirical orthogonal function analyses further confirm that the northward extension of El Niño-excited AAC pattern stems from changes of local internal dynamic mode. The present study highlights that both the El Niño-induced SST anomalies and local atmospheric internal dynamics are of paramount importance for the intra-seasonal variations of AAC in El Niño decaying summer.

Characterizing Mean and Extreme Diurnal Variability of Ocean CO2 System Variables Across Marine Environments

AbstractDiurnal variability of ocean CO2 system variables is poorly constrained. Here, this variability and its drivers are assessed using 3‐h observations collected over 8–140 months at 37 stations located in diverse marine environments. Extreme diurnal variability, that is, when the daily amplitude exceeds the 99th percentile of diurnal variability, is comparable in magnitude to the seasonal amplitude and can surpass projected changes in mean states of pCO2 and [H+] over the twenty‐first century. At coastal sites and near coral reefs, extremes in diurnal amplitudes reach 187 ± 85 and 149 ± 106 μatm for pCO2, 0.21 ± 0.08 and 0.11 ± 0.07 for pH, and 1.2 ± 0.5 and 0.8 ± 0.4 for Ωarag, respectively. Extreme diurnal variability is weaker in the open ocean, but still reaches 47 ± 18 μatm for pCO2, 0.04 ± 0.01 for pH, and 0.25 ± 0.11 for Ωarag. Diurnal variability of the ocean CO2 system is considerable and likely to respond to increasing CO2. Therefore, it should be represented in Earth system models.

Weakened ENSO‐Ningaloo Niño/Niña Teleconnection Under Greenhouse Warming

AbstractNingaloo Niño/Niña is a mode of climate variability in the southeastern Indian Ocean with huge impacts on Australian climate. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as the dominant remote forcing, triggers Ningaloo Niño/Niña. However, how this teleconnection will respond to greenhouse warming is unclear. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel simulations, we find a weakened ENSO‐Ningaloo Niño/Niña teleconnection under greenhouse warming, which manifests as weakened atmospheric teleconnection from La Niña to Ningaloo Niño. Such weakened teleconnection can be linked to the tropical Pacific mean state changes including an El Niño‐like warming pattern and more stable atmosphere in the future climate, both suppressing the atmospheric convection in the western tropical Pacific, leading to a weaker Matsuno‐Gill response in the southeastern Indian Ocean. Our results suggest that Ningaloo Niño/Niña becomes more challenging to predict as greenhouse warming continues.

Diversity of East China Summer Rainfall Change in Post-El Niño Summers

East China has experienced positive precipitation anomalies in post-El Niño summers, mainly in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley. This kind of monsoonal rainfall change induced by El Niño, however, is not always the same due to El Niño diversity and mean state change. Here, we use cluster analysis on the post-El Niño (PE) East China summer precipitation anomalies to identify the diversity of this El Niño-induced monsoon change. The result shows that PE East China summer rainfall anomalies mainly display three different modes for all selected 20 El Niño events from 1957 to 2016. Cluster 1 shows the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River demonstrate strong wet anomalies, while South and North China are dominated by dry anomalies, similar to a sandwich mode. Cluster 2 is distinguished by dry anomalies over South China and wet anomalies over North China, exhibiting a dipole mode. Compared with Cluster 1, the change caused by Cluster 3 is different, showing negative anomalies over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley. The three clusters are correlated with successive events of El Niño, a quick transfer to a strong La Niña and a quick transfer to a weak La Niña respectively. The associated anomalous anticyclone (AAC) focuses on (120°E, 20°N) in Cluster 1, which expands southward for Cluster 2 and moves eastward for Cluster 3. The feedback of AAC-sea surface temperature (SST) mainly works for supporting the AAC in Cluster 1, but it is weak for Cluster 2; the strong easterly anomalies related to La Niña contribute to the AAC location change for Cluster 2. Both AAC-SST feedback and easterly anomalies support the AAC of Cluster 3. The CMIP5 output can capture these diverse responses in circulation except that their simulated AAC for Cluster 1 is significant to the east of the observed.

Arctic Clouds and Precipitation in the Community Earth System Model Version 2.

The Arctic climate is changing rapidly, warming at about twice the rate of the planet. Global climate models (GCMs) are invaluable tools both for understanding the drivers of these changes and predicting future Arctic climate evolution. While GCMs are continually improving, there remain difficulties in representing cloud processes which occur on scales smaller than GCM resolution. Since clouds influence the Arctic energy and water cycles, their accurate representation in models is critical for robust future projections. In this work, we examine the representation of Arctic clouds and precipitation in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), comparing the newly released version (CESM2 with CAM6) with its predecessor (CESM1 with CAM5). To isolate changes in the Arctic mean state, we compare preindustrial control runs. Arctic cloud ice has decreased slightly, while cloud water has increased dramatically in CESM2. Annual mean liquid‐containing cloud (LCC) frequency has increased from 19% in CESM1 to 51% in CESM2. Since LCCs strongly modulate downwelling radiation at the surface, their increase has led to an increase in mean downwelling longwave (+22 W m) and corresponding decrease in downwelling shortwave (23 W m) radiation. The mean Arctic surface temperature increased from 257 K in CESM1 to 260 K in CESM2, with the largest seasonal difference in winter (+6 K). Annual average snowfall has decreased slightly (1 mm month), while rainfall has increased (+5 mm month).

Enhanced North American ENSO Teleconnections During the Little Ice Age Revealed by Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

AbstractTeleconnection rainfall over North America may be systematically altered by tropical Pacific mean state changes. Characterizing teleconnection changes to improve prediction requires many realizations of ENSO events, but twentieth century data are temporally limited. To extend twentieth century records, we evaluate ENSO events in a new last‐millennium paleoclimate data assimilation reconstruction to deduce how mean state changes affect the magnitude/extent of ENSO‐driven rainfall in the United States. Despite global cooling during the Little Ice Age, the central‐eastern tropical Pacific warms relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly, shifting teleconnections eastward and increasing rainfall anomalies in the southwestern United States. Teleconnections strengthen independently of ENSO amplitude; we thus suggest caution in using paleoclimate reconstructions of teleconnection rainfall as a proxy for ENSO amplitude. We demonstrate teleconnection rainfall is sensitive to the pattern of tropical Pacific mean SST changes, underscoring the importance of reducing uncertainties in future warming patterns in the tropical Pacific.

P1491Cardiac contractility modulation in patients with chronic heart failure and atrial fibrillation: 6 months of follow-up

Abstract Background Heart failure is developed in 30% of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It significantly worsens the prognosis and evaluates the fatal risks for patients. Cardiac Contractility Modulation (CCM) is a new therapeutic device for heart failure, which is used in patients with narrow QRS complexes who are refractory to medical therapy. Purpose The aim of current study is to demonstrate the effects of CCM on patients with heart failure and AF, influencing on NT-proBNP dynamics and 6 min walk test (6-MWT). Methods Fourty patients (40) with symptomatic heart failure (II-III NYHA class), persistent/paroxysmal AF and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF ≤ 40%) were included. The average age was 60 ± 6 years. MeanLA-volume was 120± 22 ml and NT-proBNP level was 1336 ± 278pg/ml.A 6-MWT was 246 ± 33 m. All patients were implanted with a CCM Optimizer according to the protocol of implantation without an atrial lead. The study compared the mean state changes from baseline to 6 months’ follow-up. Results In 6 months’ follow-up we observed a significant improvement in functional and symptomatic parameters. NT-proBNP level was 1021 ± 153 pg/ml and mean 6 MWT values were 300 ± 26 m. NYHA improved by at least 1 functional class. MeanLA-volume after 6 months of follow-up was 104,5± 18 ml. Conclusions CCM is an effective and safe technology for patients with symptomatic HF. It significantly improves functional parameters, including a 6-minute walk test and NYHA functional class. CCM may prevent HF progression and may influence the outcome.

Differing limnological responses to late Holocene climate variability in the Cordillera Vilcanota, Peruvian Andes

In recent decades, climate change in Peru’s Cordillera Vilcanota has resulted in massive reductions to its cryosphere and the upslope migration of species and agriculture. Little, however, is known about the response of the region’s many lakes that support local biodiversity and supply water to downstream populations. We analyzed fossil diatom assemblages in dated sediment cores from three lakes with differing morphometry and catchment characteristics to document the limnological response to climate variability over the late Holocene. The study lakes contained similar dominant diatom taxa but recorded markedly different assemblage shifts over time. The two deeper lakes, Laguna Sibinacocha (zmax = 92 m) and Chaca Cocha (zmax = 18 m), contained diatom assemblages that oscillated in dominance between benthic fragilarioids (Staurosirella pinnata, Pseudostaurosira brevistriata) and the planktonic Discostella stelligera. The Chaca Cocha diatom record closely matched the mean state changes in climate inferred from independent proxy records, whereas the record from the glacially influenced Laguna Sibinacocha did not match independent records. In contrast, the shallow study site, Lado del Quelccaya (zmax = 5 m), recorded a complacent diatom profile dominated by benthic fragilarioids with negligible planktonic taxa. The disparate diatom trajectories among the study lakes reflect variations in morphometry and glacial influence and the assemblage shifts appear best explained by climate-driven alterations to thermal stratification. These data offer insight into the primary mechanisms driving limnological change in this region and how different lake types throughout the Andes may respond to future warming.

A pre-Inca pot from underwater ruins discovered in an Andean lake provides a sedimentary record of marked hydrological change

Pre-Hispanic artifacts and sacred architecture were recently discovered submerged in a large lake (Laguna Sibinacocha) in the Peruvian Andes. The underwater ruins indicate a dramatic shift in the region’s hydrology but the timing and triggers of this shift remain unknown. In a novel approach blending archaeology and paleoecology, we analyzed a sediment sequence from within one of the recovered artifacts, specifically a pot from the Late Intermediate Period (~1000–1400 CE). Radioisotopic dating of discrete sediment intervals sampled from the pot show a stratigraphically intact profile that preserves a history of change at this site. The pot’s basal sediment age places the timing of lake-level rise during the late ~1600s CE, which post-dates the end of the Inca Empire (1400–1532 CE) by approximately 150 years. The ubiquity of planktonic algae throughout the sediment profile suggests water levels remained high above the pot since its submergence. Paleoclimate data from the nearby Quelccaya ice core records indicate lake flooding followed a pronounced wet period beginning ~1520 CE. These data show the permanence of mean state changes in climate on the region’s hydrology, with clear implications for the study site (an important water resource for ~500,000 people) and other lakes in the rapidly warming Andes.

The role of the South Pacific in modulating Tropical Pacific variability

Tropical Pacific variability (TPV) heavily influences global climate, but much is still unknown about its drivers. We examine the impact of South Pacific variability on the modes of TPV: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). We conduct idealised coupled experiments in which we suppress temperature and salinity variability at all oceanic levels in the South Pacific. This reduces decadal variability in the equatorial Pacific by ~30% and distorts the spatial pattern of the IPO. There is little change to overall interannual variability, however there is a decrease in the magnitude of the largest 5% of both El Niño and La Niña sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Possible reasons for this include: (i) reduced decadal variability means that interannual SST variability is superposed onto a ‘flatter’ background signal, (ii) suppressing South Pacific variability leads to the alteration of coupled processes linking the South and equatorial Pacific. A small but significant mean state change arising from the imposed suppression may also contribute to the weakened extreme ENSO SST anomalies. The magnitude of both extreme El Niño and La Niña SST anomalies are reduced, and the associated spatial patterns of change of upper ocean heat content and wind stress anomalies are markedly different for both types of events.

Mechanisms Reducing ENSO Amplitude and Asymmetry via an Enhanced Seasonal Cycle in the Mid-Holocene

Abstract Paleo proxy records have suggested that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability during the mid-Holocene [8200 to 4200 years ago (8.2–4.2 ka)] was weaker than during the instrumental periods, but the mechanisms remain unclear. We examined processes of ENSO suppression using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that simulates ENSO amplitude and skewness under the present climate reasonably well. Two long simulations were performed: one using the preindustrial condition (CTRL) and the other using the 8-ka insolation having a greater seasonal cycle (MH8K). Consistent with proxy records and previous modeling studies, the ENSO amplitude weakened by 20% in MH8K compared to CTRL, mainly because of reduced thermocline feedback during the mature and decay phases. The weak thermocline feedback, likely a result of the loose equatorial thermocline in the mid-Holocene, suppresses the occurrence of extreme El Niño events and consequently explains the reduction in both ENSO amplitude and asymmetry. In MH8K, strengthened trade winds over the western-central Pacific Ocean act to cool the surface via evaporation while warmer water in the southern subtropical Pacific is transported beneath the equatorial thermocline, both contributing to diffuse the thermocline. Multimodel simulations for the mid-Holocene showed mean state changes and ENSO weakening similar to MH8K, but most models did not show reduced ENSO skewness, probably because of the failure in reproducing extreme El Niño events under the present climate.

Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

AbstractPrevious study has suggested a northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. This study replenishes two mechanisms to explain this inter‐decadal change in the WNP TC genesis position. The first mechanism is related to the mean state change. According to observational analysis and numerical simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric general circulation model, a La Niña‐type Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change and the northern Atlantic Ocean warming in the late 1990s cause a dipole pattern of lower‐level circulation change, with cyclone over the northwestern WNP and anticyclone over the southeastern WNP. This pattern is favourable for more TC genesis in the northwestern WNP. The sensitivity experiments show that the contribution from the Pacific Ocean is larger than that from the northern Atlantic Ocean. The second mechanism is related to the change in the intra‐seasonal oscillation intensity, particularly the quasi‐biweekly variation. The activity of intra‐seasonal oscillations over the southeastern WNP shows a decadal decrease around the late 1990s. Meantime, when the intra‐seasonal oscillations with tilted structure move northwestwards, they provide a favourable condition for TC genesis to be located more northwestwards after the late 1990s.

Modulation of tropical cyclones in the southeastern part of western North Pacific by tropical Pacific decadal variability

The tropical cyclone (TC) genesis number in the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits a pronounced decadal decrease around the mid-1990s, with prominent seasonal and spatial inhomogeneity. This decadal shift of TC activity is mostly confined to the southeastern part of the WNP and occurs mainly during the second half of the calendar year. Accordingly, westward and northeastward TC recurving movements strongly decreased in recent decades after 1995 compared with TC tracks in the earlier period (1979–1994). We find that this TC activity decadal change is associated with tropical Pacific decadal variability, which is measured here by a low-pass filtered Nino3.4 index. In contrast to the earlier period, the anomalous cold mean state in the tropical Pacific during recent decades favored the enhancement of zonal vertical wind shear (UVWS) and suppressed TC activity. This tropical Pacific mean state change is possibly related to decadal changes of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties (i.e., more La Nina events occurred during recent decades). This relationship between tropical Pacific mean state change and the UVWS in the southeastern WNP on decadal timescales is further validated based on longer observations (1951–2017) and control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The statistical relationships between TC activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are weaker and insignificant, both for the observations and for simulations. Our results imply that decadal variations of the tropical Pacific mean state should be taken into account when predicting WNP TC activities on decadal timescales.

Attributing changes in future extreme droughts based on PDSI in China

Climate change in mean-state or variability could lead to more/less frequency of extreme drought. In this study, we developed a new framework for decomposing the contributing factors of changes in future extreme drought frequency in China in accordance to the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We performed a series of numerical experiments to ensure that the sensitivity of trend and variability in individual climatic variables can be distinguished. In addition, an extreme drought rate with warming (EDRW, unit: %·K−1) is defined to quantify the relative change in extreme drought frequency per Kelvin. Overall, the EDRW will increase dramatically by an average of 27.71%·K−1. The ascended EDRW are attributed to increases in temperature (+56.90%·K−1), net radiation (14.80%·K−1) and precipitation variability (+8.23%·K−1); a decrease in relative humidity (+4.61%·K−1), but is partly offset by an increase in precipitation (i.e., “wetting”, −60.12%·K−1). A smaller increase in the frequency of extreme droughts is found in high-latitude regions due to their enhanced sensitivity to “wetting”.

Regulation of atmospheric circulation controlling the tropical Pacific precipitation change in response to CO2 increases

The spatial pattern of precipitation responses to CO2 concentration increases significantly influences global weather and climate variability by altering the location of tropical heating in a warmer climate. In this study, we analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections of tropical Pacific rainfall response to quadrupled increase of CO2. We found that the precipitation changes to the CO2 concentration increase cannot be interpreted by a weakening or strengthening of large-scale east–west coupling across the tropical Pacific basin, i.e., Walker circulation. By calculating the water vapor transport, we suggest instead that different responses of the Walker and Hadley circulations to the increasing CO2 concentration shape the details of the spatial pattern of precipitation in the tropical Pacific. Therefore, more regionally perturbed circulations over the tropical Pacific, which is influenced by the mean state change in the tropical Pacific and the enhanced precipitation outside the tropical Pacific, lead to greater increases in precipitation in the western equatorial Pacific as compared to the eastern tropical Pacific in a warmer climate.