PurposeHelicopter fuselage vibration prediction is important to keep a safety and comfortable flight process. The helicopter vibration mechanism model is difficult to meet of demand for accurate vibration prediction. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to develop an intelligent algorithm for accurate helicopter fuselage vibration analysis.Design/methodology/approachIn this research, a novel weighted variational mode decomposition (VMD)- extreme gradient boosting (xgboost) helicopter fuselage vibration prediction model is proposed. The vibration data is decomposed and reconstructed by the signal clustering results. The vibration response is predicted by xgboost algorithm based on the reconstructed data. The information transfer order between the controllable flight data and flight attitude are analyzed.FindingsThe mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the proposed weighted VMD-xgboost model are decreased by 6.8%, 31.5% and 32.8% compared with xgboost model. The established weighted VMD-xgboost model has the highest prediction accuracy with the lowest mean MAPE, RMSE and MAE of 4.54%, 0.0162, and 0.0131, respectively. The attitude of horizontal tail and cycle pitch are the key factors to vibration.Originality/valueA novel weighted VMD-xgboost intelligent prediction methods is proposed. The prediction effect of xgboost model is highly improved by using the signal-weighted reconstruction technique. In addition, the data set used is collected from actual helicopter flight process.