Maximum Of Sunspot Cycle Research Articles

About the Possible Solar Nature of the ~200 yr (de Vries/Suess) and ~2000–2500 yr (Hallstadt) Cycles and Their Influences on the Earth’s Climate: The Role of Solar-Triggered Tectonic Processes in General “Sun–Climate” Relationship

(1) Introduction: The subject of the present study concerns the analysis of the existence and long time evolution of the solar ~200 yr (de Vries/Suess) and ~2400 yr (Hallstadt) cycles during the recent part of the Wurm ice epoch and the Holocene, as well as their forcing on the regional East European climate during the last two calendar millennia. The results obtained here are compared with those from our previous studies, as well as with the results obtained by other authors and with other types of data. A possible scenario of solar activity changes during the 21st century, as well as different possible mechanisms of solar–climatic relationships, is discussed. (2) Data and methods: Two types of indirect (historical) data series for solar activity were used: (a) the international radiocarbon tree ring series (INTCAL13) for the last 13,900 years; (b) the Schove series of the calendar years of minima and maxima and the magnitudes of 156 quasi 11 yr sunspot Schwabe–Wolf cycles since 296 AD and up to the sunspot cycle with number 24 (SC24) in the Zurich series; (c) manuscript messages about extreme meteorological and climatic events (Danube and Black Sea near-coast water freezing), extreme summer droughts, etc., in Bulgaria and adjacent territories since 296 and up to 1899 AD, when the Bulgarian meteorological dataset was started. A time series analysis and χ2-test were used. (3) Results and analysis: The amplitude modulation of the 200 yr solar cycle by the 2400 yr (Hallstadt) cycle was confirmed. Two groups of extremely cold winters (ECWs) during the last ~1700 years were established. Both groups without exclusion are concentrated near 11 yr sunspot cycle extremes. The number of ECWs near sunspot cycle minima is about 2 times greater than that of ECWs near sunspot cycle maxima. This result is in agreement with our earlier studies for the instrumental epoch since 1899 AD. The driest “spring-summer-early autumn” seasons in Bulgaria and adjacent territories occur near the initial and middle phases of the grand solar minima of the Oort–Dalton type, which relate to the downward phases and minima of the 200 yr Suess cycle. (4) Discussion: The above results confirm the effect of the Sun’s forcing on climate. However, it cannot be explained by the standard hypothesis for total solar irradiation (TSI) variations. That is why another hypothesis is suggested by the author. The mechanism considered by Svensmark for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) forcing on aerosol nuclei was taken into account. However, in the hypothesis suggested here, the forcing of solar X-ray flux changes (including solar flares) on the low ionosphere (the D-layer) and following interactions with the Earth’s lithosphere due to the terrestrial electric current systems play a key role for aerosol nuclei and cloud generation and dynamics during sunspot maxima epochs. The GCR flux maximum absorption layer at heights of 35–40 km replaces the ionosphere D-layer role during the sunspot minima epochs.

"Эффект Данжона", воздействие солнца на вулканическую активность в связи с изменениями климата

The “Danjon effect” is a phenomenon that presents a tendency to concentrate the so-called “dark” total lunar eclipses (DTLE) near solar sunspot cycle minimum phases. It was a starting point for the present study, whose main subject is a statistical analysis of relationship between solar and volcanic activity for the maximum long time. To this end, the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History's volcanic activity catalog was used. On its basis, a time series of the total annual volcanic eruptions for the period 1551–2020 AD has been built and explored for cycles of possible solar origin. Cycles with duration of 10–11, 19–25, ∼60, and ∼240 years (all with possible solar origin) has been established. It has also been found that there are two certain peaks of volcanic activity during the sunspot activity cycle: the first one is close to or after the sunspot minimum (sunspot cycle phase 0.9 ≤ Φ ≤1.0 and 0.1 ≤ Φ ≤ 0.2), and the second is wider – close to the sunspot cycle maximum (0.3 ≤ Φ ≤ 0.5). A third maximum is detected about 3–4 years after the sunspot cycle maximum (0.7 ≤ Φ ≤ 0.8) for the “moderate strong” volcanic eruptions with volcanic eruptive index VEI = 5. It corresponds to the geomagnetic activity secondary maximum, which usually occurs 3–4 years after the sunspot maximum. Φ is calculated separately on the basis of each sunspot cycle length. Finally, without any exclusions, all most powerful volcanic eruptions for which VEI ≥ 6 are centered near the ∼11-year Schwabe-Wolf cycle extremes. Trigger mechanisms of solar and geomagnetic activity over volcanic events, as well as their relation to climate change (in interaction with galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and/or solar energetic particles (SEP)), are discussed. The Pinatubo eruption in 1991 as an example of a “pure” strong solar–volcanism relationship has been analyzed in detail.

Sunspot cycle prediction using Warped Gaussian process regression

Solar cycle prediction is a key activity in space weather research. Several techniques have been employed in recent decades in order to try to forecast the next sunspot-cycle maxima and time. In this work, the Gaussian process, a machine-learning technique, is used to make a prediction for the solar cycle 25 based on the annual sunspot number 2.0 data from 1700 to 2018. A variation known as Warped Gaussian process is employed in order to deal with the non-negativity constraint and asymmetrical data distribution. Tests using holdout data yielded a root mean square error of 10.0 within 5 years and 25.0–35.0 within 10 years. Simulations using the predictive distribution were performed to account for the uncertainty in the prediction. Cycle 25 is expected to last from 2019 to 2029, with a peak sunspot number about 117 (110 by the median) occurring most likely in 2024. Thus our method predicts that solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than previous ones, implying a continuing trend of declining solar activity as observed in the past two cycles.

The Inner Heliosphere at Fifty

Recent observations show that the Sun's magnetic field is flipping, marking one of the weakest sunspot cycle maxima in recent history. Many consequences have been observed and are under study, from a significant diminishing of the upper atmosphere's density [Solomon et al., 2010] to record low levels of geomagnetic activity [Richardson, 2013] to the large increase of local galactic cosmic ray fluxes starting in the preceding solar minimum [Mewaldt et al., 2010].

Empirical evidences for a planetary modulation of total solar irradiance and the TSI signature of the 1.09-year Earth-Jupiter conjunction cycle

The time series of total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite observations since 1978 provided by ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are studied. We find empirical evidence for planetary-induced forcing and modulation of solar activity. Power spectra and direct data pattern analysis reveal a clear signature of the 1.09-year Earth-Jupiter conjunction cycle, in particular during solar cycle 23 maximum. This appears to suggest that the Jupiter side of the Sun is slightly brighter during solar maxima. The effect is observed when the Earth crosses the Sun-Jupiter conjunction line every 1.09 years. Multiple spectral peaks are observed in the TSI records that are coherent with known planetary harmonics such as the spring, orbital and synodic periods among Mercury, Venus, Earth and Jupiter: the Mercury-Venus spring-tidal cycle (0.20 year); the Mercury orbital cycle (0.24 year); the Venus-Jupiter spring-tidal cycle (0.32 year); the Venus-Mercury synodic cycle (0.40 year); the Venus-Jupiter synodic cycle (0.65 year); and the Venus-Earth spring tidal cycle (0.80 year). Strong evidence is also found for a 0.5-year TSI cycle that could be driven by the Earth’s crossing the solar equatorial plane twice a year and may indicate a latitudinal solar-luminosity asymmetry. Because both spring and synodic planetary cycles appear to be present and the amplitudes of their TSI signatures appear enhanced during sunspot cycle maxima, we conjecture that on annual and sub-annual scales both gravitational and electro-magnetic planet-sun interactions and internal non-linear feedbacks may be modulating solar activity. Gravitational tidal forces should mostly stress spring cycles while electro-magnetic forces could be linked to the solar wobbling dynamics, and would mostly stress the synodic cycles. The observed statistical coherence between the TSI records and the planetary harmonics is confirmed by three alternative tests.

A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2011. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

Solar Cycle 23 in Coronal Bright Points

We describe an automatic routine to identify coronal bright points (CBPs) and apply this routine to SOHO/EIT observations taken in the 195 A spectral range during solar cycle 23. We examine the total number of CBPs and its change in the course of this solar cycle. Unlike some other recent studies, we do find a modest ≈30% decrease in the number of CBPs associated with maximum of sunspot activity. Using the maximum brightness of CBPs as a criterion, we separate them on two categories: dim CBPs, associated with areas of a quiet Sun, and bright CBPs, associated with an active Sun. We find that the number of dim coronal bright points decreases at the maximum of sunspot cycle, while the number of bright CBPs increases. The latitudinal distributions suggest that dim CBPs are distributed uniformly over the solar disk. Active Sun CBPs exhibit a well-defined two-hump latitudinal profile suggestive of enhanced production of this type of CBPs in sunspot activity belts. Finally, we investigate the relative role of two mechanisms in cycle variations of CBP number, and conclude that a change in fraction of solar surface occupied by the quiet Sun’s magnetic field is the primary cause, with the visibility effect playing a secondary role.

Solar activity, Earth’s rotation rate and climate variations in the secular and semi-secular time scales

By applying the wavelet formalism to sudden storm commencements and aa geomagnetic indices and solar total irradiation, as a proxy data for solar sources of climate-forcing, we have searched the signatures of those variables on the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature. We have found that cyclical behaviour in surface temperature is not clearly related to none of these variables, so we have suggested that besides them surface temperature might be related to Earth’s rotation rate variations. Also it has been suggested that in the long-term Earth’s rotation rate variations might be excited by geomagnetic storm time variations which, in turn, depends on solar activity. The study of these phenomena and its relationships is addressed in the present paper. With this purpose we perform an analysis of the evolution during the last 350 years of the signals that conform the 11-year sunspot cycle maxima envelope for different time scales. The result is applied to analyze the relationship between long-term variations in sunspot number and excess of length of day; and to unearth the signature in surface temperature of this last from that of sudden storm commencement and aa geomagnetic indices and total solar irradiation. As solar dynamo experiments transient processes in all the time scales from seconds to centuries, Fourier analysis and its requirement for the process to be stationary is likely to produce spurious periodicities. We resort instead to wavelet formalism. By this representation we found that sunspot maxima envelope for the last 350 years may be described by means of the superposition of two cycles – a decadal and a semi-secular one – and a secular trend. And that the changing amplitude and phase of the cycles are well reconstructed using the superposition of two wavelets with nearby periods. The strong temporal changes in amplitude of the cycles facilitate to detect its phase in a given time series. It is found that a strong semi-secular cycle in the sunspot maxima envelope that started during the 1705 chaotic transition having its maximum amplitude at the Dalton minimum, was mapped 94 years later in Earth’s rotation rate and simultaneously in surface temperature. Also, there was a decrease (increase) of 0.022 °C for each millisecond of decrease (increase) in the Earth’s rotation period for the semi-secular cycle as well as the secular trend.

The 22-year cycle in the geomagnetic 27-day recurrences reflecting on the F2-layer ionization

Abstract. Solar cycle variations of the amplitudes of the 27-day solar rotation period reflected in the geomagnetic activity index Ap, solar radio flux F10.7cm and critical frequency foF2 for mid-latitude ionosonde station Moscow from the maximum of sunspot cycle 18 to the maximum of cycle 23 are examined. The analysis shows that there are distinct enhancements of the 27-day amplitudes for foF2 and Ap in the late declining phase of each solar cycle while the amplitudes for F10.7cm decrease gradually, and the foF2 and Ap amplitude peaks are much larger for even-numbered solar cycles than for the odd ones. Additionally, we found the same even-high and odd-low pattern of foF2 for other mid-latitude ionosonde stations in Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This property suggests that there exists a 22-year cycle in the F2-layer variability coupled with the 22-year cycle in the 27-day recurrence of geomagnetic activity. Key words. Ionosphere (mid-latitude ionosphere; ionosphere- magnetosphere interactions) – Magnetospheric physics (solar wind-magnetosphere interactions)

Lags, hysteresis, and double peaks between cosmic rays and solar activity

The 12‐month moving averages of solar indices and CR (cosmic ray intensity) were compared. The long‐term variation had a negative correlation (already known). From the hysteresis plots for five cycles (odd cycles 19, 21, 23; even cycles 20, 22), it was seen that whereas odd and even cycles showed different patterns, the detailed evolution in similar cycles (even or odd) was not alike. The reason for complication is as follows. On medium‐term time scales, in some sunspot cycle maxima (notably cycles 22 and 23), there were two peaks in solar indices separated by about 2 years. These were reflected in CR as two distinct minima, some with a lag of a few months but others almost coincident with maxima of solar indices. The implication would be that CR modulation as observed on Earth contains two parts: (1) long‐term variation due to magnetic field structure in total heliosphere, determined by convection‐diffusion and drift mechanisms (this part has time lags of several months and is characterized by hysteresis phenomenon) and (2) short‐term and medium‐term variations caused mainly by accumulated shock waves (Forbush effects and assotiated phenomena) with time lags of a few days, which in the scale of months or a year or two, would show a time lag zero). The second component would be especially important in maximum of solar activity.

Evidence That a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period

Sunspots appear on the Sun in two bands on either side of the equator that drift toward lower latitudes as each sunspot cycle progresses. We examine the drift of the centroid of the sunspot area toward the equator in each hemisphere from 1874 to 2002 and find that the drift rate slows as the centroid approaches the equator. We compare the drift rate at sunspot cycle maximum with the period of each cycle for each hemisphere and find a highly significant anticorrelation: hemispheres with faster drift rates have shorter periods. These observations are consistent with a meridional counterflow deep within the Sun as the primary driver of the migration toward the equator and the period associated with the sunspot cycle. We also find that the drift rate at maximum is significantly correlated with the amplitude of the following cycle, a prediction of dynamo models that employ a deep meridional flow toward the equator. Our results indicate an amplitude of about 1.2 m s-1 for the meridional flow velocity at the base of the solar convection zone.

An Early Prediction of Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24

A non-linear coupling function between sunspot maxima and aa minima modulations has been found as a result of a wavelet analysis of geomagnetic index aa and Wolf sunspot number yearly means since 1844. It has been demonstrated that the increase of these modulations for the past 158 years has not been steady, instead, it has occurred in less than 30 years starting around 1923. Otherwise sunspot maxima have oscillated about a constant level of 90 and 141, prior to 1923 and after 1949, respectively. The relevance of these findings regarding the forecasting of solar activity is analyzed here. It is found that if sunspot cycle maxima were still oscillating around the 141 constant value, then the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule would be violated for two consecutive even–odd sunspot pairs (22–23 and 24–25) for the first time in 1700 years. Instead, we present evidence that solar activity is in a declining episode that started about 1993. A value for maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 (87.5±23.5) is estimated from our results.

Periodicities of the LDE-type flare occurence (1969–1992)

The power spectrum was calculated for the time series of the LDE-type flare occurence during the last three solar cycles (the 20-th, the 21-st and the first part of the 22-nd cycle). LDE-type flares (Long Duration Events in SXR) are associated with the interplanetary protons (SEP and STIP as well), energized coronal archs and radio type IV emission. Generally, in all the cycles considered, LDE-type flares mainly originated during a 6-year interval of the respective cycle (2 years before and 4 years after the sunspot cycle maximum). The following significant periodicities were found: • in the 20-th cycle: 1.4, 2.1, 2.9, 4.0, 10.7 and 54.2 of month, • in the 21-st cycle: 1.2, 1.6, 2.8 4.9 , 7.8 and 44.5 of month, • in the 22-nd cycle, till March 1992: 1.4, 1.8, 2.4, 7.2, 8.7, 11.8 and 29.1 of month, • in all interval (1969–1992): 1. 1. the longer periodicities: 232.1, 121.1 (the dominant at 10.1 of year), 80.7, 61.9 and 25.6 of month, 2. 2. the shorter periodicities: 4.7, 5.0 , 6.8, 7.9, 9.1 , 15.8 and 20.4 of month. . Solar variability has an extremely complex time dependence. The Sun is a multiperiodic system. The strong periodicities “near 155 and 270 days” were found also in the LDE-type flare occurence.

The LDE-Type Flare Occurrence (1969-1993)

AbstractThe occurrence of LDE-type flares in the last three cycles has been investigated. The Fourier analysis spectrum was calculated for the time series of the LDE-type flare occurrence during the 20-th, the 21-st and the rising part of the 22-nd cycle. LDE-type flares (Long Duration Events in SXR) are associated with the interplanetary protons (SEP and STIP as well), energized coronal archs and radio type IV emission. Generally, in all the cycles considered, LDE-type flares mainly originated during a 6-year interval of the respective cycle (2 years before and 4 years after the sunspot cycle maximum). The following significant periodicities were found:• in the 20-th cycle: 1.4, 2.1, 2.9, 4.0, 10.7 and 54.2 of month,• in the 21-st cycle: 1.2, 1.6, 2.8, 4.9, 7.8 and 44.5 of month,• in the 22-nd cycle, till March 1992: 1.4, 1.8, 2.4, 7.2, 8.7, 11.8 and 29.1 of month,• in all interval (1969-1992):a)the longer periodicities: 232.1, 121.1 (the dominant at 10.1 of year), 80.7, 61.9 and 25.6 of month,b)the shorter periodicities: 4.7, 5.0, 6.8, 7.9, 9.1, 15.8 and 20.4 of month.Fourier analysis of the LDE-type flare index (FI) yields significant peaks at 2.3 - 2.9 months and 4.2 - 4.9 months. These short periodicities correspond remarkably in the all three last solar cycles. The larger periodicities are different in respective cycles.

IMF polarity effects on the equatorial ionospheric F-region

An exploratory study is made of the influence, during the equinoxes, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) sector structure on the ionospheric F-region using ionosonde data from several equatorial stations for a 3-yr period around the 19th sunspot cycle maximum. It is found that, compared with days having positive IMF polarity, the post-sunset increase of h'F near the dip equator and the depth of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) are reduced during the vernal equinox and enhanced during the antumnal equinox on days with negative IMF polarity. Similar trends are also noted in the data for the 20th sunspot cycle maximum, but with reduced amplitude. The systematic changes in the F-region characteristics suggest a modification of the equatorial zonal electric fields in association with the IMF polarity-related changes in the semi-annual variation of geomagnetic activity.

Coronal mass ejections observed during the Solar Maximum Mission: Latitude distribution and rate of occurrence

Sixty‐five coronal mass ejections have been identified in a systematic examination of white‐light coronal images obtained between March and September 1980 by the coronagraph/polarimeter flown on the solar maximum mission spacecraft. These ejections were more uniformly distributed in position angle (or “projected” solar latitude) than the similar events observed during the Skylab mission in 1973–1974; 27% of the solar maximum mission mass ejections were centered at positions more than 45° from the solar equator. The average rate of occurrence of the observed mass ejections for the entire solar maximum mission epoch, based on the assumption that one coronagraph image per spacecraft orbit is sufficient for detection, was 0.9±0.15 per 24‐hour day. Application of the same sampling assumption to the Skylab data set leads to a rate of 0.75 per 24‐hour day and thus a change in this rate from the Skylab era (on the declining phase of sunspot cycle 20) to solar maximum mission (near the maximum of sunspot cycle 21) of only ∼20%.

X-ray bright points and the sunspot cycle: Further results and predictions

X-ray images obtained during two rocket flights near the maximum of sunspot cycle 21 now allow the study of the variation of X-ray bright point number over an eleven-year period covering the maxima of the last two cycles. The new data are consistent with the earlier conclusion that the temporal variation of bright point and sunspot number are out of phase. The quantities are related through a power law with a negative exponent of 2/3.