ABSTRACTTraditional risk‐based design process involves designing the structure based on risk estimates obtained during several iterations of an optimization routine. This approach is computationally expensive for large‐scale aircraft structural systems. Therefore, this paper introduces the concept of risk‐based design plots that can be used for both structural sizing and risk assessment for fracture strength when maximum allowable crack length is available. In situations when crack length is defined as a probability distribution the presented approach can only be applied for various percentiles of crack lengths. These plots are obtained using normalized probability density models of load and material properties and are applicable for any arbitrary load and strength values. Risk‐based design plots serve as a tool for failure probability assessment given geometry and applied load or they can determine geometric constraints to be used in sizing given allowable failure probability. This approach would transform a reliability‐based optimization problem into a deterministic optimization problem with geometric constraints that implicitly incorporate risk into the design. In this paper, cracked flat plate and stiffened plate are used to demonstrate the methodology and its applicability.
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