Max Planck Institute Ocean Model Research Articles

PREDICTION OF SOUTHERN OSCILLATION USING THE INDONESIAN THROUGHFLOW VARIABILITY

Atmospheric boundary layer derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the period of 1974 to 2002 has been used as boundary forcings for the global ocean model Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM). The ocean model is a curvilinear grid model, whose poles are located over mainland China and over the Australian continent, thus focusing on the maritime continent. The model simulates major Indonesian throughflow passages that focus on six cannels representing three inlets and three outlets (the Makassar, Lifamatola, Halmahera, Lombok, Ombai and Timor Straits). The model results have been validated using the Arlindo observation Project over the Makassar Strait in the period of January 1997 to February 1998, which fortunately was during a strong El Niño episode. The model simulation results were then investigated for their prediction capabilities of any of those channels in foreseeing the incoming southern oscillation events. Temporal correlation analysis with lag and advance time correlation methods were performed against simulated data at all levels on those channels. Variabilities in depth of 74 to 200m (thermocline depth) show the strongest correlation with SOI index (Darwin minus Tahiti mean sea level pressure). The temperature and salinity correlations with SOI are the highest with one-month in advance over Lifamatola Strait (0.77) and two-month in advance over the Makassar Straits (0.74). These significant correlations highlight the important of those two straits in prediction of incoming southern oscillation that usually leads to ENSO episode which brings most of the time devastating impact to economy, agriculture and ecosystem.

Validation of an EnKF System for OGCM Initialization Assimilating Temperature, Salinity, and Surface Height Measurements

Abstract Results are presented from a decade-long assimilation run with a 64-member OGCM ensemble in a global configuration. The assimilation system can be used to produce ocean initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. The ensemble is constructed with the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model, where each member is forced by differently perturbed 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis atmospheric fields over sequential 10-day intervals. Along-track altimetric data from the European Remote Sensing and the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon satellites, as well as quality-controlled subsurface temperature and salinity profiles, are subsequently assimilated using the standard formulation of the ensemble Kalman filter. The applied forcing perturbation method and data selection and processing procedures are described, as well as a framework for the construction of appropriate data constraint error models for all three data types. The results indicate that the system is stable, does not experience a tendency toward ensemble collapse, and provides smooth analyses that are closer to withheld data than an unconstrained control run. Subsurface bias and time-dependent errors are reduced by the assimilation but not entirely removed. Time series of assimilation and ensemble statistics also indicate that the model is not very strongly constrained by the data because of an overspecification of the data errors. A comparison of equatorial zonal velocity profiles with in situ current meter data shows mixed results. A shift in the time-mean profile in the central Pacific is primarily associated with an assimilation-induced bias. The use of an adaptive bias correction scheme is suggested as a solution to this problem.

Modelling Indonesian rainfall with a coupled regional model

Long-term high-resolution coupled climate model simulations using the Max Planck Institute Regional Climate Model and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model have been performed with boundary forcings from two reanalyses: firstly from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and secondly from the joint reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This study employs a special coupling setup using a regional atmospheric model and a global ocean model. The latter model applies a special conformal grid from a bipolar orthogonal spherical coordinate system, which allows irregular positions of the poles and focuses on the detail over the Maritime Continent. The coupled model was able to simulate stable and realistic rainfall variabilities without flux correction and at two different ocean resolutions. The coupled system is integrated for a period between 1979 and 1993 and the results are then compared to those from uncoupled runs and from observation. The results show improved performance after coupling: a remarkable reduction of overestimated rainfall over the sea for the atmospheric model and of warm SST biases for the ocean model. There is no significant change in rainfall variability at higher ocean model resolution, but the ocean circulation shows less transport variability within the Makassar Strait in comparison to observations.

Modeling water mass formation in the Mertz Glacier Polynya and Adélie Depression, East Antarctica

High rates of sea ice growth and brine rejection in the Mertz Glacier Polynya drive the production of dense continental shelf waters in the Adélie Depression. We consider the rate of outflow of waters having sufficient density to sink into the neighboring abyssal ocean and form Adélie Land Bottom Water (ALBW). Along with Weddell and Ross Sea Bottom Waters, the ALBW is an important source of Antarctic Bottom Water. The relevant processes are modeled using a variant of the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) under daily NCEP‐NCAR reanalysis forcing for the period 1991–2000. The orthogonal curvilinear horizontal grid allows for the construction of a global domain with high resolution in our region of interest. The modeled Mertz Glacier Polynya is realistic in location and extent, exhibiting low ice thickness (<0.4 m) and low ice fraction (<50%). The net surface ocean to atmosphere heat flux exceeds 200 W m2 and is dominated by sensible heat exchange. In wintertime (May through September inclusive), 7.5 m of sea ice forms over the Adélie Depression at a rate of 4.9 cm d−1: this results in annual average volumetric production of 99 km3 of sea ice. The associated brine release drives dense shelf water formation. The off‐shelf flow of dense water exhibits strong interannual variability in response to variability in both atmospheric forcing and ocean preconditioning. Averaged over the period 1991–2000 the off shelf flow of dense water is 0.15 Sv: for a period of strong outflow (1993–1997), this increases to 0.24 Sv. Most of the outflow occurs during July through October, at a rate of 0.40 (0.63) Sv over the period 1991–2000 (1993–1997). The peak mean monthly outflow can exceed 1 Sv.