Maturity-onset Diabetes Research Articles

MODY Only Monogenic? A Narrative Review of the Novel Rare and Low-Penetrant Variants.

Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) represents the most frequent form of monogenic diabetes mellitus (DM), currently classified in 14 distinct subtypes according to single gene mutations involved in the differentiation and function of pancreatic β-cells. A significant proportion of MODY has unknown etiology, suggesting that the genetic landscape is still to be explored. Recently, novel potentially MODY-causal genes, involved in the differentiation and function of β-cells, have been identified, such as RFX6, NKX2.2, NKX6.1, WFS1, PCBD1, MTOR, TBC1D4, CACNA1E, MNX1, AKT2, NEUROG3, EIF2AK3, GLIS3, HADH, and PTF1A. Genetic and clinical features of MODY variants remain highly heterogeneous, with no direct genotype-phenotype correlation, especially in the low-penetrant subtypes. This is a narrative review of the literature aimed at describing the current state-of-the-art of the novel likely MODY-associated variants. For a deeper understanding of MODY complexity, we also report some related controversies concerning the etiological role of some of the well-known pathological genes and MODY inheritance pattern, as well as the rare association of MODY with autoimmune diabetes. Due to the limited data available, the assessment of MODY-related genes pathogenicity remains challenging, especially in the setting of rare and low-penetrant subtypes. In consideration of the crucial importance of an accurate diagnosis, prognosis and management of MODY, more studies are warranted to further investigate its genetic landscape and the genotype-phenotype correlation, as well as the pathogenetic contribution of the nongenetic modifiers in this cohort of patients.

Re-diagnosis of diabetes mellitus type 1 to maturity-onset diabetes of the young type 2 (MODY 2) in a 26-year-old male: a case report

Diabetes mellitus (DM) encompasses a spectrum of metabolic disorders characterized by hyperglycemia due to defects in insulin secretion, action, or both. Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are the most prevalent forms, whereas Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young (MODY) represents a monogenic subtype, often misdiagnosed due to its phenotypic overlap. This case study highlights a 26-year-old male initially diagnosed with T1DM at age 12, managed with insulin therapy. Upon admission, despite stable glycemic control and preserved C-peptide secretion, genetic testing revealed MODY 2 due to a variant in the GCK gene. Unlike T1DM and T2DM, MODY 2 is characterized by mild, persistent hyperglycemia with a low risk of complications, emphasizing the importance of genetic diagnosis for tailored management and family counseling. This case underscores the critical role of genetic evaluation in accurately diagnosing and managing atypical diabetes presentations.

Diabetic Ketoacidosis in Patients with Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young.

Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) is the most frequent monogenetic diabetes form. It is caused by mutations in genes important for the development and function of pancreatic beta-cells, resulting in impaired insulin secretion capacity. Up to now, 14 different types have been described. The inheritance pattern is autosomal dominant, leading to a strong family history with more than three affected generations. Young age at diagnosis and lack of pancreatic autoantibodies are further characteristics of MODY. The presence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) was long regarded as an exclusion criterion for MODY. However, in recent years, several case reports on MODY patients presenting with DKA have been published. The present study aimed to give an overview of the current knowledge of DKA in MODY patients, with a collection of published case studies as a prerequisite for this review.

MODY calculator applied in patients with clinical diagnosis of type 1 diabetes mellitus: Is a higher cutoff needed?

AimThis study aimed to evaluate the mean post-test probability (PTP) of the Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) calculator in a multiethnic cohort of patients previously diagnosed with type 1 diabetes (T1DM). Materials and methodsThe MODY probability calculator proposed by Shields and colleagues (2012) was applied to 117 patients from a T1DM outpatient clinic at a tertiary hospital in Brazil. Additionally, two exons of the HNF1A gene were sequenced in eight patients who hadn't received insulin treatment within six months after the diagnosis. Results17.1 % of patients achieved PTP >10 %; 11.1 % achieved PTP >25 % (and all patients >30 %), and 7.7 % achieved PTP >40 %. Among the patients who were selected for genetic sequencing, 100 % presented PTP >30 %, with 66.6 % achieving PTP >40 % and 41.6 % achieving PTP >75 %. These cutoffs are as suggested for the Brazilian population, according to previous investigations. No mutation was observed in the sequenced exons. ConclusionConsidering that only around 10 % of the evaluated cases achieved PTP >30 %, it is highly probable that the most suitable cutoff to select patients for genetic sequencing in a Brazilian cohort of T1DM is higher than the cutoff used in Caucasian populations.

Chinese carrier of the HNF1A p.Gln444fs variant exhibits enhanced response to sulfonylureas

BackgroundWe assessed the response to sulfonylureas and the functional characteristics of HNF1A mutations in patients with maturity-onset diabetes of the young type 3 (MODY3). MethodsWe recruited a family with suspected MODY in this study, and gene sequencing (whole-exome sequencing) was used to screen germline mutations. Luciferase reporter assays were used to evaluate the activity of the mutated genes. ResultsHeterozygous HNF1A variant (NM_000545.8:c.1330_1331del, p.Gln444fs) was identified in the proband and was not found in his father, grandmother, and nonrelated healthy controls. The mutant protein had 552 amino acids, 110 fewer than the wild type protein. Furthermore, the amino acid sequence was completely different between the mutant protein and the wild type protein starting from the 444th amino acid. Luciferase reporter assays revealed that the variant had impaired HNF4A promoter–regulation activity. The patient did not achieve good hypoglycemic effects during long-term treatment with insulin and metformin. The effect of hypoglycemic treatment was highly significant after the addition of sulfonylurea drugs. ConclusionsThe HNF1A p.Gln444fs variant associated with MODY3, and most likely a truncated protein, impaired HNF1A transcriptional activity. The variant carrier experienced an enhanced response to sulfonylureas.

Bifunctional silver-metal organic gels with catalytic and electrochemiluminescence properties applied for ratio detection of I27L gene

The rate of maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) is significantly increased by the common I27L gene variant of the hepatocyte nuclear factor-1α (HNF1A), hence achieving sensitive and precise I27L gene detection is the focus of early monitoring and diagnosis of HNF1A-MODY. In this study, we developed a silver-metal organic gels (Ag MOGs)/ K2S2O8-O2 system-based electrochemiluminescence resonance energy transfer (ECL-RET) ratio biosensor for detecting the I27L gene. The novel Ag MOGs were synthesized by simply mixing Ag+ and Luminol at ambient temperature. On the one hand, Ag MOGs could generate excellent anodic ECL signals in phosphate buffer without requiring exogenous co-reactants, which were derived from the Luminol ligand. On the other hand, Ag MOGs facilitated the electrocatalytic reduction of K2S2O8 by providing stable catalytic active sites and enhancing electron transfer rates, thereby leading to enhanced cathodic ECL emission from K2S2O8-O2. We constructed an ECL-RET ratio biosensor utilizing a DNA walker cycle amplification strategy. The biosensor leveraged the anodic ECL emission from the Ag MOGs/K2S2O8-O2 system as a donor and Atto 425 as a receptor, achieving ultra-sensitive detection of the I27L gene within a linear range of 100 amol/L to 100 pmol/L, and featuring a detection limit of 72 amol/L. Therefore, a direct synthesis technique of bifunctional materials with catalysis and electrochemiluminescence has been developed. Additionally, the ECL-RET ratio biosensor provided a universal platform for the detection of diabetes subtypes.

Precision treatment of beta-cell monogenic diabetes: a systematic review

BackgroundBeta-cell monogenic forms of diabetes have strong support for precision medicine. We systematically analyzed evidence for precision treatments for GCK-related hyperglycemia, HNF1A-, HNF4A- and HNF1B-diabetes, and mitochondrial diabetes (MD) due to m.3243 A > G variant, 6q24-transient neonatal diabetes mellitus (TND) and SLC19A2-diabetes.MethodsThe search of PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase for individual and group level data for glycemic outcomes using inclusion (English, original articles written after 1992) and exclusion (VUS, multiple diabetes types, absent/aggregated treatment effect measures) criteria. The risk of bias was assessed using NHLBI study-quality assessment tools. Data extracted from Covidence were summarized and presented as descriptive statistics in tables and text.ResultsThere are 146 studies included, with only six being experimental studies. For GCK-related hyperglycemia, the six studies (35 individuals) assessing therapy discontinuation show no HbA1c deterioration. A randomized trial (18 individuals per group) shows that sulfonylureas (SU) were more effective in HNF1A-diabetes than in type 2 diabetes. Cohort and case studies support SU’s effectiveness in lowering HbA1c. Two cross-over trials (each with 15–16 individuals) suggest glinides and GLP-1 receptor agonists might be used in place of SU. Evidence for HNF4A-diabetes is limited. Most reported patients with HNF1B-diabetes (N = 293) and MD (N = 233) are on insulin without treatment studies. Limited data support oral agents after relapse in 6q24-TND and for thiamine improving glycemic control and reducing/eliminating insulin requirement in SLC19A2-diabetes.ConclusionThere is limited evidence, and with moderate or serious risk of bias, to guide monogenic diabetes treatment. Further evidence is needed to examine the optimum treatment in monogenic subtypes.

Pregnancy in various forms of monogenic diabetes: A systematic review

Pregnancy in various forms of monogenic diabetes: A systematic review

Coinheritance of HNF1A and glucokinase variants in maturity-onset diabetes of the young.

Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) is a group of monogenic forms of diabetes mellitus characterized by early-onset diabetes with dominant inheritance of beta-cell dysfunction. There are few reports of the coinheritance of glucokinase (GCK) and hepatocyte nuclear factor 1 alpha gene (HNF1A) variants underlying MODY in patients. Herein, we describe a case involving combinations of monoallelic GCK and HNF1A variants associated with MODY. A 10-year-old Japanese girl with a three-generation family history of diabetes without obesity showed high levels of urinary glucose during a school screening test. Her glucose metabolism profile revealed 124 mg/dL of fasting glucose, 6.9% glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and 2.78 ng/mL of C-peptide immunoreactivity levels. In a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test, her base glucose, peak glucose, insulin resistance, and homeostasis model assessment of beta cell function levels were 124 mg/dL, 210 mg/dL (120 min), 1.71, and 33%, respectively. Based on the clinical phenotype of GCK-MODY, alimentary and exercise therapy without oral hypoglycemic agents were used to maintain her fasting glucose and HbA1c levels. We explored the coinheritance of MODY with GCK and HNF1A variants in this and past cases and found that careful clinical follow-up is required to firmly establish phenotypic features. Moreover, the accumulation of data on genetically confirmed MODY associated with the coinheritance of GCK and HNF1A variants will be useful for understanding genotype-phenotype correlations. MODY is a group of monogenic forms of diabetes mellitus characterized by early-onset diabetes with the dominant inheritance of beta-cell dysfunction. MODY2 and MODY3 caused by heterozygous loss-of-function variants in the glucokinase (GCK) and hepatocyte nuclear factor 1 alpha (HNF1A) genes, respectively, are the most common forms of the disease. Few cases of MODY have previously been reported as being associated with the coinheritance of GCK and HNF1A variants. Careful clinical follow-up is required to firmly establish phenotypic features in the coinheritance of MODY with GCK and HNF1A variants. The accumulation of data on genetically confirmed MODY associated with the coinheritance of GCK and HNF1A variants will be useful for understanding genotype-phenotype correlations.

The first case report on maturity-onset diabetes of young-11 from West Bengal, India

Maturity-onset diabetes of young (MODY) is a clinically group of heterogeneous disorder characterized by non-insulin-dependent diabetes diagnosed at a young age (<25 years) with autosomal dominant transmission and lack of autoantibodies. This case report is on MODY in a 30-day-old baby. The patient also has an umbilical hernia and choledochal cyst. We present an instance of 30-day-old child with MODY with a family background of diabetes. While more data are needed to justify universal screening for diabetes with tests. Practitioners should be vigilant with family history of screening of diabetes. In families two or more generations of diabetes, there should be a low threshold for asymptomatic screening with a serum Hb1Ac.

A novel heterozygous likely pathogenic SLC5A2 variant in a diabetic patient with glucosuria and aminoaciduria.

Familial renal glucosuria (FRG) is a rare renal tubular disorder characterized by increased urinary glucose excretion despite normoglycemia. It is most commonly caused by pathogenic variants in the solute carrier family V member 2 (SLC5A2) gene. This gene encodes the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2, crucial for glucose reabsorption. We report the case of a 44-year-old male referred to the endocrinology outpatient clinic for unexplained glucosuria despite well-controlled diabetes mellitus with metformin and gliclazide therapy. His main complaints were nocturia and an unintentional 5 kg weight loss in 1 year. A 24-h urinary collection revealed overt glucosuria (23.3 g/1.73 m2/24 h), generalized aminoaciduria, and increased uric acid excretion (fractional excretion: 6.4%). Whole-exome sequencing revealed a novel heterozygous c.469-1G>A likely pathogenic variant in the SLC5A2 gene. Specific analysis of the maturity-onset diabetes of the young type (MODY) gene panel showed no pathogenic variants in the hepatocyte nuclear factor-1A (HNF-1A; MODY3) nor in other MODY-associated genes. We assume that the association of glucosuria, aminoaciduria, and increased uric acid excretion can be explained by the combination of diabetes and the likely pathogenic SLC5A2 variant in this patient. In conclusion, we describe a well-controlled diabetic patient with FRG, associated with a novel heterozygous c.469-1G>A likely pathogenic variant in the SLC5A2 gene. The diagnosis of a renal tubular disorder should be considered in patients with unexplained glucosuria and diabetes mellitus, especially if the latter is well controlled. FRG usually presents with glucosuria but may be associated with generalized aminoaciduria and hyperuricosuria. Genetic analysis should be considered in patients with young-onset diabetes and glucosuria, particularly with a positive family history.

Co-existence of type 1 diabetes and monogenic diabetes in one family: getting the diagnosis right

Co-existence of type 1 diabetes and monogenic diabetes in one family: getting the diagnosis right

Maturity-onset diabetes of the young type 3 complicated with type 5: A case report and literature review.

This report describes a case of maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) type 3 (MODY3) complicated with type 5 (MODY5), including the patient's clinical features, diagnosis, and treatment, and reviews relevant literature. Using next-generation sequencing of MODY (types 1-14) gene exons and Sanger sequencing for verification, the patient and her mother were assessed. Based on the clinical phenotype and genetic test results, the patient was diagnosed as MODY3 combined with MODY5. Treatment included insulin and linagliptin, with monitoring of blood glucose changes. Clinicians should enhance their understanding of MODY clinical phenotypes. In adolescents with diabetes who have congenital pancreatic and renal developmental defects, elevated high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, no spontaneous ketosis, insulin secretion defects, negative pancreatic autoantibodies, no significant insulin resistance, and who are not obese, gene testing should be conducted to screen for MODY. Accurate diagnosis and personalized treatment can aid in achieving glycemic control, improving quality of life, and optimizing reproductive planning.

SPACA6P-AS: a trailblazer in breast cancer pathobiology and therapeutics

ObjectiveThe primary objective of this investigation is to delve into the involvement of the long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) SPACA6P-AS in breast cancer (BC) development, focusing on its expression pattern, association with clinical-pathological features, impact on prognosis, as well as its molecular and immunological implications.MethodsBioinformatics analysis was conducted utilizing RNA sequencing data of 1083 BC patients from the TCGA database. Functional exploration of SPACA6P-AS was carried out through the construction of survival curves, GO and KEGG enrichment analysis, and single-sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA). Furthermore, its functionality was validated through in vitro cell experiments and in vivo nude mouse model experiments.ResultsSPACA6P-AS showed a remarkable increase in expression levels in BC tissues (p < 0.001) and demonstrated a close relationship to poor prognosis (overall survival HR = 1.616, progression-free interval HR = 1.40, disease-specific survival HR = 1.54). Enrichment analysis revealed that SPACA6P-AS could impact biological functions such as protease regulation, endopeptidase inhibitor activity, taste receptor activity, taste transduction, and maturity-onset diabetes of the young pathway. ssGSEA analysis indicated a negative correlation between SPACA6P-AS expression and immune cell infiltration like dendritic cells and neutrophils, while a positive correlation was observed with central memory T cells and T helper 2 cells. Results from in vitro and in vivo experiments illustrated that silencing SPACA6P-AS significantly inhibited the proliferation, migration, and invasion capabilities of BC cells. In vitro experiments also highlighted that dendritic cells with silenced SPACA6P-AS exhibited enhanced capabilities in promoting the proliferation of autologous CD3 + T cells and cytokine secretion. These discoveries elucidate the potential multifaceted roles of SPACA6P-AS in BC, including its potential involvement in modulating immune cell infiltration in the tumor microenvironment.ConclusionThe high expression of lncRNA SPACA6P-AS in BC is closely linked to poor prognosis and may facilitate tumor progression by influencing specific biological processes, signaling pathways, and the immune microenvironment. The regulatory role of SPACA6P-AS positions it as a prospective biomarker and target for therapeutic approaches for BC diagnosis and intervention.

MODY diabetes as an orphan disease: literature review

BACKGROUND. Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) is the most common form of monogenic diabetes, usually diagnosed before the age of 30 years in non-obese patients with a family history of diabetes mellitus (DM). MODY is relatively rare compared to type 1 and type 2 DM, with various literature estimates affecting only 1-2 % of people with diabetes, but because it is rare, clinicians may misdiagnose it as type 1 or type 2 DM, which happens in most cases. Unlike type 1 DM patients, patients with MODY have preserved pancreatic β-cell function, so lifestyle modification in combination with glucose-lowering therapy, which in some cases may include insulin, may be sufficient interventions as treatment. OBJECTIVE. With the help of literary sources, familiarize yourself with the classification, clinical manifestations, aspects of treatment and prognosis of the main forms of MODY diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Object: MODY diabetes as an orphan disease. Research method: a review of literary sources. RESULTS. MODY is most often an autosomal dominant disease and is divided into subtypes (MODY1 to MODY14) based on genetic mutation. Subtypes 1-3 are the most common, accounting for 95 % of cases. Treatment usually includes diet, exercise, and, in some cases, insulin or oral hypoglycemic drugs. In general, the prognosis can be quite favorable, provided that carbohydrate metabolism is compensated. CONCLUSIONS. MODY diabetes is a complex genetically determined pathology, and understanding the features of this disease, diagnosis and treatment are of great importance for patients and their families. The development of modern methods of treatment and monitoring of glucose, such as insulin pumps, 24-hour glycemic monitoring and other technologies, may improve the prognosis for patients with MODY. Each patient with MODY diabetes has individual characteristics, which leaves an imprint on the prognosis of the disease and approaches to treatment. The main goal is to maintain a normal level of glucose in the blood to avoid complications.

HNF4A and HNF1A exhibit tissue specific target gene regulation in pancreatic beta cells and hepatocytes

HNF4A and HNF1A encode transcription factors that are important for the development and function of the pancreas and liver. Mutations in both genes have been directly linked to Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young (MODY) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. To better define the pleiotropic gene regulatory roles of HNF4A and HNF1A, we generated a comprehensive genome-wide map of their binding targets in pancreatic and hepatic cells using ChIP-Seq. HNF4A was found to bind and regulate known (ACY3, HAAO, HNF1A, MAP3K11) and previously unidentified (ABCD3, CDKN2AIP, USH1C, VIL1) loci in a tissue-dependent manner. Functional follow-up highlighted a potential role for HAAO and USH1C as regulators of beta cell function. Unlike the loss-of-function HNF4A/MODY1 variant I271fs, the T2D-associated HNF4A variant (rs1800961) was found to activate AKAP1, GAD2 and HOPX gene expression, potentially due to changes in DNA-binding affinity. We also found HNF1A to bind to and regulate GPR39 expression in beta cells. Overall, our studies provide a rich resource for uncovering downstream molecular targets of HNF4A and HNF1A that may contribute to beta cell or hepatic cell (dys)function, and set up a framework for gene discovery and functional validation.

Impairment of flicker-induced increase in retinal blood flow in diabetic pigs.

To evaluate retinal blood flow (RBF) regulation in response to RBF stress in maturity-onset diabetes of the young type 3 (MODY3) pigs. Case-control study. MODY3 pigs (diabetes mellitus [DM] group, n = 8) transfected with the human mutant hepatocyte nuclear factor-1⍺ and normal pigs of the same age (normal group, n = 8) were used as subjects. After confirming DM onset, the experiment was performed under inhalation anesthesia with isoflurane at 2 months of age before the cataract progressed. Ocular blood flow was assessed by calculating the optic papillary mean blur rate using laser speckle flowgraphy, modified for pig eye measurements. After baseline ocular blood flow measurements, flicker stimulation (12 Hz, 3 min) was applied, and ocular blood flow was measured over time. Blood glucose was 81.8 ± 5.1 mg/dL in the normal group and 311.4 ± 23.1 mg/dL in the DM group (mean ± standard error). The percent change in ocular blood flow at 3 min after flicker stimulation was +31.0 ± 10.9% in the normal group and -6.6 ± 6.5% in the DM group compared to the preload value, and the difference was statistically significant (Mann-Whitney test, P = 0.015). RBF response to flicker stimulation is reduced at 2 months of age in MODY3 pigs, suggesting that retinal neurovascular coupling is impaired from the early onset of DM.

Molecular mechanism of HNF-1A-mediated HNF4A gene regulation and promoter-driven HNF4A-MODY diabetes.

Monogenic diabetes is a gateway to precision medicine through molecular mechanistic insight. Hepatocyte nuclear factor 1A (HNF-1A) and HNF-4A are transcription factors that engage in crossregulatory gene transcription networks to maintain glucose-stimulated insulin secretion in pancreatic β cells. Variants in the HNF1A and HNF4A genes are associated with maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY). Here, we explored 4 variants in the P2-HNF4A promoter region: 3 in the HNF-1A binding site and 1 close to the site, which were identified in 63 individuals from 21 families of different MODY disease registries across Europe. Our goal was to study the disease causality for these variants and to investigate diabetes mechanisms on the molecular level. We solved a crystal structure of HNF-1A bound to the P2-HNF4A promoter and established a set of techniques to probe HNF-1A binding and transcriptional activity toward different promoter variants. We used isothermal titration calorimetry, biolayer interferometry, x-ray crystallography, and transactivation assays, which revealed changes in HNF-1A binding or transcriptional activities for all 4 P2-HNF4A variants. Our results suggest distinct disease mechanisms of the promoter variants, which can be correlated with clinical phenotype, such as age of diagnosis of diabetes, and be important tools for clinical utility in precision medicine.

The Importance of Molecular Genetic Testing for Precision Diagnostics, Management, and Genetic Counseling in MODY Patients.

Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) is part of the heterogeneous group of monogenic diabetes (MD) characterized by the non-immune dysfunction of pancreatic β-cells. The diagnosis of MODY still remains a challenge for clinicians, with many cases being misdiagnosed as type 1 or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T1DM/T2DM), and over 80% of cases remaining undiagnosed. With the introduction of modern technologies, important progress has been made in deciphering the molecular mechanisms and heterogeneous etiology of MD, including MODY. The aim of our study was to identify genetic variants associated with MODY in a group of patients with early-onset diabetes/prediabetes in whom a form of MD was clinically suspected. Genetic testing, based on next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology, was carried out either in a targeted manner, using gene panels for monogenic diabetes, or by analyzing the entire exome (whole-exome sequencing). GKC-MODY 2 was the most frequently detected variant, but rare forms of KCNJ11-MODY 13, specifically, HNF4A-MODY 1, were also identified. We have emphasized the importance of genetic testing for early diagnosis, MODY subtype differentiation, and genetic counseling. We presented the genotype-phenotype correlations, especially related to the clinical evolution and personalized therapy, also emphasizing the particularities of each patient in the family context.

Comparison of Bayesian approaches for developing prediction models in rare disease: application to the identification of patients with Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young

BackgroundClinical prediction models can help identify high-risk patients and facilitate timely interventions. However, developing such models for rare diseases presents challenges due to the scarcity of affected patients for developing and calibrating models. Methods that pool information from multiple sources can help with these challenges.MethodsWe compared three approaches for developing clinical prediction models for population screening based on an example of discriminating a rare form of diabetes (Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young - MODY) in insulin-treated patients from the more common Type 1 diabetes (T1D). Two datasets were used: a case-control dataset (278 T1D, 177 MODY) and a population-representative dataset (1418 patients, 96 MODY tested with biomarker testing, 7 MODY positive). To build a population-level prediction model, we compared three methods for recalibrating models developed in case-control data. These were prevalence adjustment (“offset”), shrinkage recalibration in the population-level dataset (“recalibration”), and a refitting of the model to the population-level dataset (“re-estimation”). We then developed a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model combining shrinkage recalibration with additional informative biomarker information only available in the population-representative dataset. We developed a method for dealing with missing biomarker and outcome information using prior information from the literature and other data sources to ensure the clinical validity of predictions for certain biomarker combinations.ResultsThe offset, re-estimation, and recalibration methods showed good calibration in the population-representative dataset. The offset and recalibration methods displayed the lowest predictive uncertainty due to borrowing information from the fitted case-control model. We demonstrate the potential of a mixture model for incorporating informative biomarkers, which significantly enhanced the model’s predictive accuracy, reduced uncertainty, and showed higher stability in all ranges of predictive outcome probabilities.ConclusionWe have compared several approaches that could be used to develop prediction models for rare diseases. Our findings highlight the recalibration mixture model as the optimal strategy if a population-level dataset is available. This approach offers the flexibility to incorporate additional predictors and informed prior probabilities, contributing to enhanced prediction accuracy for rare diseases. It also allows predictions without these additional tests, providing additional information on whether a patient should undergo further biomarker testing before genetic testing.