Matter Of Luck Research Articles

Subject-Involving Luck

In recent years, philosophers have tended to think of luck as being a relation between an event (taken in the broadest sense of the term) and a subject; to give an account of luck is to fill in the right-hand side of the following biconditional: an event e is lucky for a subject S if and only if ____. We can call such accounts of luck subject-relative accounts of luck, since they attempt to spell out what it is for an event to be lucky relative to a subject. This essay argues that we should understand subject-relative luck as a secondary phenomenon. What is of philosophical interest is giving an account of subject-involving luck, i.e., filling in the right-hand side of this biconditional: it is a matter of luck that S ϕs iff ____. The essay argues that one of the upshots of focusing on subject-involving luck is that lack of control accounts of luck (LCALs) become more attractive. In particular, a range of counterexamples to LCALs of subject-relative luck do not apply to LCALs of subject-involving luck.

Luck, the Range of Obligations, and Frankfurt Examples

The following two principles are invoked to argue, first, for the view that it is often a matter of luck (or beyond our control) to avoid performing many garden-variety sorts of acts in everyday life that are seemingly obligatory for us. It is impossible for one to perform an action that is morally obligatory for one unless one could have done otherwise; and it is impossible for one to perform an action without having some pro-attitude to perform it. Next, the view is defended that if our being able to do otherwise is frequently a matter of luck, then the range of obligations for each of us is narrower—perhaps far narrower—than we may have hitherto believed.

On the very concept of free will

Determinism seems to rule out a robust sense of options but also prevent our choices from being a matter of luck. In this way, free will seems to require both the truth and falsity of determinism. If the concept of free will is coherent, something must have gone wrong. I offer a diagnosis on which this puzzle is due at least in part to a tension already present in the very idea of free will. I provide various lines of support for this hypothesis, including some experimental data gathered by probing the judgments of non-specialists.

A study on the solutions of matter of luck in Rawls’ A theory of Justice

A study on the solutions of matter of luck in Rawls’ A theory of Justice

Howard Andrew Knox: Pioneer of Intelligence Testing at Ellis Island by John T. E. Richardson (review)

Reviewed by: Howard Andrew Knox: Pioneer of Intelligence Testing at Ellis Island by John T. E. Richardson Alan M. Kraut John T. E. Richardson . Howard Andrew Knox: Pioneer of Intelligence Testing at Ellis Island. New York: Columbia University Press, 2011. xxxii + 309 pp. Ill. $55.00 (978-0231-14168-0). In the second decade of the twentieth century, during a peak period of immigration to the United States, Dr. Howard Andrew Knox was physician in the U.S. Marine Hospital Service (later renamed the Public Health Service) assigned to the medical inspection of immigrants at New York's Ellis Island depot. He served there for only four years, May 1912 to May 1916. However, Knox's interest in psychology and his concern about the questionable mental capacity of immigrants seeking admission to the United States led him to make a significant contribution to intelligence testing, according to biographer John T. E. Richardson, professor of student learning and assessment at the Open University in the United Kingdom and former psychology professor at Brunel University. Richardson's stated purpose is to recover from obscurity Knox's legacy and to restore his rightful place of importance in the history of intelligence testing. Born in 1885, Knox was raised in Michigan by his mother, the daughter of Irish immigrants, and a stepfather who was a physician. After graduating with a medical degree from Dartmouth, Knox joined the Army Medical Corps. When he resigned his position to care for his ailing, widowed mother, he was refused reinstatement. In the absence of evidence, Richardson speculates that the refusal resulted from Knox's departure from his post for family reasons, Knox's own divorce and rapid remarriage, which suggested to superiors a troubling instability, or the scorn of prudish superiors resulting from Knox's distribution of prophylactic kits to enlisted men and prostitutes to curb rampant venereal disease at Fort Hancock, New Jersey. Knox resumed government service in 1912, successfully passing the rigorous U.S. Marine Hospital Service examination. Assigned to Ellis Island, Knox joined the line inspection of immigrants traveling third class and steerage. Ellis Island medical officers became sharp observers. Based on a brief clinical gaze, they surmised whether the immigrant before them required further examination to confirm a diagnosis of disease or disability that would prevent newcomers from supporting themselves and might even pose a health risk to the American population. Mental deficiency was harder to diagnose. Often a gesture or facial expression provided a clue. But appearances could be deceiving. [End Page 128] In an era when definitions of mental deficiency were protean and terms such as moron and imbecile had clinical meaning, there were no reliable measures of intelligence. Examinations developed in Europe, such as the Binet exam, required language skills and a cultural familiarity beyond most immigrants' capability. Researcher H. H. Goddard's use of the Binet test on Ellis Island produced problematic results, and Ellis Island inspectors trusted their own instincts more than Goddard's data. Intrigued by psychology, Howard Knox developed performance tests requiring language comprehension only for instructions. Knox's Diamond Frame Test required associating the shape of blocks with their places in a board within a certain amount of time. His Cube Imitation Test required tapping other blocks in a particular pattern. An Inkblot Imagination Test called for immigrants to interpret the shape of an inkblot as they perceived it. Knox's articles describing these tests and several others were commercially packaged and marketed with the blessing and cooperation of the U.S. Public Health Service. Later, other distinguished intelligence testers proceeded to develop more sophisticated performance tests and explanations for precisely what such tests measured. Some cited Knox's tests in their scholarly papers; others did not. Knox's contribution fell into obscurity. As distinguished psychologist Robert J. Sternberg observes in a preface, "[P]art of becoming a revered pioneer in a field is a matter of luck, which eluded Knox." After Knox left Ellis Island in 1916, he engaged in an undistinguished private medical practice until his death in 1949. Richardson makes the case for Knox's contribution to intelligence testing. Less apparent is whether its significance warrants a biography rather than a lengthy article...

The luck argument against event-causal libertarianism: It is here to stay

The luck argument raises a serious challenge for libertarianism about free will. In broad outline, if an action is undetermined, then it appears to be a matter of luck whether or not one performs it. And if it is a matter of luck whether or not one performs an action, then it seems that the action is not performed with free will. This argument is most effective against event-causal accounts of libertarianism. Recently, Franklin (Philosophical Studies 156:199–230, 2011) has defended event-causal libertarianism against four formulations of the luck argument. I will argue that three of Franklin’s responses are unsuccessful and that there are important versions of the luck challenge that his defense has left unaddressed.

Branding not just a matter of luck

PurposeReviews the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting‐edge research and case studies.Design/methodology/approachThis briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.FindingsWhen passengers are about to board Belgian carrier Brussels Airlines planes they are faced with an attractive stylized “b” on the tail, made up of 14 large dots. It hasn't always been 14. Back in 2007 the original design had 13 but the company was forced to amend it because of complaints from superstitious passengers, mainly from the USA and Italy.Practical implicationsProvides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world's leading organizations.Social implicationsProvides strategic insights and practical thinking that can have a broader social impact.Originality/valueThe briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy‐to‐digest format.

Afghanistan: Voiceless and Displaced

Afghanistan: Voiceless and Displaced

Oral Cancer Awareness and Knowledge in the City of Valongo, Portugal

We conducted a questionnaire survey among 602 subjects in order to analyze the awareness and knowledge on oral cancer among residents of the city of Valongo in Portugal. The cancer that most subjects were aware of was breast cancer (99%). Oral cancer was the least mentioned cancer (68.6%). There was awareness of the relationship between oral cancer and smoking among 89.5% subjects, but less of the association with alcohol misuse (63.3%). Nonhealing mouth ulcers were identified as a sign or symptom of oral cancer by 90.0% and red or white patch by only 52.8% subjects. Whereas 94.5% agreed that early detection could improve the treatment outcome, a disheartening 28.1% believed that whether a person developed an oral cancer or not is a matter of luck and therefore is unavoidable. Surprisingly only 1.7% were ever submitted to or had knowledge of receiving a consultation regarding oral cancer. In conclusion, this survey demonstrates a general lack of awareness and knowledge on oral cancer in a population of Valongo. An oral health promotion strategy should involve elements of basic education on oral cancer for this population, and regular oral cancer screenings should be implemented in Valongo.

Strategy Execution: An Empirical Analysis of Obstacles Faced by Master of Business Administration Executive Students

Problem statement: This study examines obstacles faced by MBA executive students, regarding five dimensions of obstacle management. The purpose of the research is to assess the relative importance of these dimensions and to establish empirical linkages among obstacles and factors such as overall perception of the organization in terms of obstacle management, span of control of the best management practices, age and success, in order to better understand the influence of those obstacles in light of organizational strategy execution. Approach: A survey questionnaire was administered to 512 managers to study the five pre-defined dimensions regarding obstacles in strategy execution faced by MBA executive students. We used Principal Component Analysis and then ANOVA analysis to examine the empirical linkages between the dimensions of strategy execution identified in previous research and socio-demographic variables such as age, span of control, success, tenure and experience. Results: We found that the dimensions that came first in order of importance, were the obstacles related to emotions, followed by the immediate action, integrity, initiatives and finally the obstacles related to rules. This study also found a linkage between the Emotions dimension (getting a commitment for your objectives) and the variable Eval1 (How would you score your organization in terms of managing the five obstacle dimensions?) and Eval2 (What would be the score of your organization if the management of the 25 (Obstacles) practices had been mastered?) Moreover, our results reveal a connection between the immediate action dimension and Eval2. The integrity dimension highlighted the linkage with the Eval1. We showed the tie-ins between the initiatives dimension and the Eval2. The rules dimension reveals three linkages with the socio-demographic variables such as age, Eval1 and Eval3 (I believe that my success in work-related activities is often a matter of luck). We also found that the younger the MBA executive students were, the more their perception of obstacles related to the rules dimension was important. This research found many connections between the five dimensions regarding obstacles in organizational strategy execution. The set of obstacles faced by MBA executive students did not register the same impact according to strategy execution. However, additional work is necessary in order to generalize our findings. Conclusion: This study proves a contribution by identifying a set of specific obstacles for each facet of strategy execution faced by MBA executive students in the execution of their organizational objectives.

The Problems With American Exceptionalism

In 2001, German President Johannes Rau made a statement that divided Germany. In an interview with a television station, Rau said that although he is “pleased and grateful” to be German, he cannot be “proud” of it––as “it is not an achievement to be German, [but] just a matter of luck.” This statement drew criticism from the opposition in Germany who claimed that without patriotism, it is not possible to adequately represent the interests of the country. Many politicians called for Rau’s resignation or, at the very least, a recant of his words––he did neither. The uproar died down shortly after, and Rau served as President for another three years.

Coercion in Treatment: Researchers' Perspectives: In Reply

Back to table of contents Previous article Next article LettersFull AccessCoercion in Treatment: Researchers' Perspectives: In ReplyJanice L. LeBel, Ed.D.Janice L. LeBelSearch for more papers by this author, Ed.D.Published Online:1 Jul 2011AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail I agree with Dr. Roskes: coercion is a complex phenomenon with multiple dimensions. The question that he poses in his letter has three parts, which I address below.Is research conducted by nonconsumers who have not experienced coercion flawed? Yes. Work in the area of emancipatory research has shed more light on the inherent power imbalance between those who conduct social inquiry and those who experience it (1). In addition, measurement bias, instrument bias, and interviewer bias are all basic challenges in conducting research (2). Research design is compromised when the construction of tools does not include the input of consumers with direct experience of coercion. Moreover, the research process itself can have an impact on outcomes. This is confirmed by the Hawthorne effect—or its corollary in physics, the Heisenberg effect—where observation affects the object of study (3). Fundamentally, all research is flawed (4).Is research by nonconsumers of less value? No. Studies by consumers and nonconsumers are both valued.Is research conducted by consumers unbiased? Yes and no. Consumers who have experienced coercion bring an unassailable veracity and credibility to any study. Each person's unique experience cannot be regarded as “bias” when it is first-hand knowledge of coercion. Jonathan Delman, a leading consumer advocate and consultant, recounted, “I would compare my experience of coerciontotorture, with medication changes that have left me in a zombie-like state; coercion causes a sane person to feel insane or akin to a criminal” (personal communication, June 1, 2011). However, consistent with the Rashomon effect (5), individual experience is not uniform, standardized, or universal. Each person's perception is different, which makes the study of coercion challenging.More important than debating who should claim the high ground in coercion research is appreciating the damaging effects of coercion on individuals who receive care. These effects have been well articulated and should be taken as the sentinel call to recognizing that coercive practices thwart the purpose of mental health services—to facilitate recovery by improving a person's mental health condition and functioning—and have no place in a treatment paradigm. It is also important to recognize an inherent flaw in service system design, a flaw based on exploitation of a power imbalance. Tom Lane, a nationally recognized consumer leader who has experienced seclusion and restraint, summed it up well, “To suggest that ‘patients’ who have had coercive experiences are merely ‘unlucky’ or ‘unfortunate’ is a grave misrepresentation of what is, in fact, a gross injustice. It is not a matter of luck or fortune, like winning the lottery or not. It is a further reflection of the lack of understanding of a failed framework of those mental health systems which see coercive practices as treatment or acceptable ‘interventions’” (personal communication, June 5, 2011).References1 Letherby G : Emancipatory research; in Sage Dictionary of Social Research Methods. Edited by , Jupp V . London, Sage, 2006 Google Scholar2 MacCoun RJ : Biases in the interpretation and use of research results. Annual Review of Psychology 49:259–287, 1998 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar3 Albright Linda , Malloy TE : Experimental validity: Brunswik, Campbell, Cronbach, and enduring issues. Review of General Psychology 4:337–353, 2000 Crossref, Google Scholar4 Ioannidis JPA : Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med 2(8): e124, 2005. DOI 0.1371/journal.pmed.0020124 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar5 Chin MH , Muramatus N : What is the quality of quality of medical care measures? Rashomon-like relativism and real-world applications. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 46:5–20, 2003 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar FiguresReferencesCited byDetailsCited ByNone Volume 62Issue 7 July 2011Pages 806-807 Metrics PDF download History Published online 1 July 2011 Published in print 1 July 2011

Coercion in Treatment: Researchers' Perspectives: In Reply

Back to table of contents Previous article Next article LettersFull AccessCoercion in Treatment: Researchers' Perspectives: In ReplyJanice L. LeBel, Ed.D.Janice L. LeBelSearch for more papers by this author, Ed.D.Published Online:1 Jul 2011AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail I agree with Dr. Roskes: coercion is a complex phenomenon with multiple dimensions. The question that he poses in his letter has three parts, which I address below.Is research conducted by nonconsumers who have not experienced coercion flawed? Yes. Work in the area of emancipatory research has shed more light on the inherent power imbalance between those who conduct social inquiry and those who experience it (1). In addition, measurement bias, instrument bias, and interviewer bias are all basic challenges in conducting research (2). Research design is compromised when the construction of tools does not include the input of consumers with direct experience of coercion. Moreover, the research process itself can have an impact on outcomes. This is confirmed by the Hawthorne effect—or its corollary in physics, the Heisenberg effect—where observation affects the object of study (3). Fundamentally, all research is flawed (4).Is research by nonconsumers of less value? No. Studies by consumers and nonconsumers are both valued.Is research conducted by consumers unbiased? Yes and no. Consumers who have experienced coercion bring an unassailable veracity and credibility to any study. Each person's unique experience cannot be regarded as “bias” when it is first-hand knowledge of coercion. Jonathan Delman, a leading consumer advocate and consultant, recounted, “I would compare my experience of coerciontotorture, with medication changes that have left me in a zombie-like state; coercion causes a sane person to feel insane or akin to a criminal” (personal communication, June 1, 2011). However, consistent with the Rashomon effect (5), individual experience is not uniform, standardized, or universal. Each person's perception is different, which makes the study of coercion challenging.More important than debating who should claim the high ground in coercion research is appreciating the damaging effects of coercion on individuals who receive care. These effects have been well articulated and should be taken as the sentinel call to recognizing that coercive practices thwart the purpose of mental health services—to facilitate recovery by improving a person's mental health condition and functioning—and have no place in a treatment paradigm. It is also important to recognize an inherent flaw in service system design, a flaw based on exploitation of a power imbalance. Tom Lane, a nationally recognized consumer leader who has experienced seclusion and restraint, summed it up well, “To suggest that ‘patients’ who have had coercive experiences are merely ‘unlucky’ or ‘unfortunate’ is a grave misrepresentation of what is, in fact, a gross injustice. It is not a matter of luck or fortune, like winning the lottery or not. It is a further reflection of the lack of understanding of a failed framework of those mental health systems which see coercive practices as treatment or acceptable ‘interventions’” (personal communication, June 5, 2011).References1 Letherby G : Emancipatory research; in Sage Dictionary of Social Research Methods. Edited by , Jupp V . London, Sage, 2006 Google Scholar2 MacCoun RJ : Biases in the interpretation and use of research results. Annual Review of Psychology 49:259–287, 1998 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar3 Albright Linda , Malloy TE : Experimental validity: Brunswik, Campbell, Cronbach, and enduring issues. Review of General Psychology 4:337–353, 2000 Crossref, Google Scholar4 Ioannidis JPA : Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med 2(8): e124, 2005. DOI 0.1371/journal.pmed.0020124 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar5 Chin MH , Muramatus N : What is the quality of quality of medical care measures? Rashomon-like relativism and real-world applications. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 46:5–20, 2003 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar FiguresReferencesCited byDetailsCited ByNone Volume 62Issue 7 July 2011Pages 806-807 Metrics PDF download History Published online 1 July 2011 Published in print 1 July 2011

Patients, cells, and organelles: The intersection of science and serendipity

Patients, cells, and organelles: The intersection of science and serendipity

Successfully Achieving Ambitious Goals in Government: An Empirical Analysis

Many senior government leaders who have attempted to achieve ambitious goals have been quite successful, though others (sometimes very visibly) have not succeeded. What do those who succeeded do differently? Is their success just a matter of luck? What (if anything) do the most successful public sector leaders have in common across agencies with very different missions? To explore these questions, the authors use a reputational approach to identify success, relying on independent experts to nominate leaders from the two most recent completed presidential administrations. In order to understand what successful leaders do differently, the authors also use a control group for comparison. The authors test a range of hypotheses based on the public management literature. Successful leaders do a number of things that control group members generally do not. Examples of these techniques are general good management techniques, including using a strategy planning process, using performance metrics, and working proactively to gain support from external stakeholders. By contrast, change management techniques, which we had expected to distinguish successful leaders, are also used by unsuccessful leaders. Thus, their use does not differentiate the successes.

Measuring Increases In Horizontal Equity In The Absence Of Certain Itemized Deductions And Phase Outs

A topic that generates extensive debate and concern is the perception of fairness in the US tax system. This “fairness” is often defined as vertical equity – taxpayers with different amount of income pay different amounts of taxes, and horizontal equity – taxpayers with the similar income pay the same level of taxes. Since the late 1980s, the number of phase outs in the United States individual income tax system has increased substantially. The effect of these phase outs has, in some cases, increased certain societal-valued activities, while at the same time discouraged reduction in taxes to others who are viewed as upper-income. On the other hand, some of these phase outs, and the ability to use them, may simply be a matter of luck or timing, or both. When this is the case, the tax liability of two people with very similar incomes may become very different, thus decreasing horizontal equity. This study begins by examining changes in horizontal equity (as measured by the coefficient of variation) when deleting two individual tax deductions. Using the Internal Revenue Service Tax File database for roughly 60,000 married filing joint returns, we examined the sensitivity of equity measures to two “artificial” changes in the tax laws – the disallowance of the mortgage interest deduction and the charitable contribution deduction. Not surprising, we find the disallowance of either or both deductions increases horizontal equity. Additionally, in the absence of phase outs (using the 1989 IRS tax file), we prove that as income groups become more numerous (and hence narrow bands of income), horizontal equity increases as well. This outcome is at odds with prior tax equity studies that make the assumption that increasing or decreasing the number of equal circumstance groups (taxpayers with similar income) will have no substantive effect on the outcome of horizontal equity measures. It also shows that increasing phase outs, when only benefits some in even very narrow income groups, has the effect of decreasing horizontal equity. This study has important implications in two respects. First, from a methodological standpoint, prior studies should have strengthened their assumption on the number of equal income groups used. Second, from a public policy perspective, continuing to increase the number of phase outs within the tax system further distorts horizontal equity, thus undermining the fairness and equity perception of the tax system.

Anti-Luck Epistemologies and Necessary Truths

That believing truly as a matter of luck does not generally constitute knowing has become epistemic commonplace. Accounts of knowledge incorporating this anti-luck idea frequently rely on one or another of a safety or sensitivity condition. Sensitivity-based accounts of knowledge have a well-known problem with necessary truths, to wit, that any believed necessary truth trivially counts as knowledge on such accounts. In this paper, we argue that safety-based accounts similarly trivialize knowledge of necessary truths and that two ways of responding to this problem for safety, issuing from work by Williamson and Pritchard, are of dubious success.

Moral Luck and Liability Lotteries

Adversaries of Moral Luck (AMLs) are at pains to explain why wrongdoers are liable to bear burdens (punishment, compensation etc.) which are related to the harm they cause, because the consequences of what we do are a matter of luck. One attempt to solve this problem suggests that wrongdoers who cause more harm are liable to bear a greater burden not because they are more blameworthy but rather because they get the short straw in a liability lottery (represented by the apparently indeterminate causal process). In this paper I argue that this attempt fails on several grounds. Apart from the fact that it is hard to see how the implementation of liability lotteries can be motivated and the fact that such scheme presupposes a political order (whereas the notion of liability does not seem to presuppose one), detaching liability from the outcomes of a culpable action undermines whichever justifications there were for imposing liability in the first place. Moreover, relying on the determination of the causal process as a good indication of the wrongdoer’s degree of culpability is mistaken, because the luck brought about through the causal process is not necessarily the only element involved in cases of harmful conduct which lies beyond the wrongdoers’ control.

A visit to the Foundling Museum.

A visit to the Foundling Museum.

Reflective Luck and Belief Ownership

A belief is reflectively lucky if it is a matter of luck that the belief is true, given what a subject is aware of on reflection alone. Various epistemologists have argued that any adequate theory of knowledge should eliminate reflective luck, but doing so has proven difficult. This article distinguishes between two kinds of reflective luck arguments in the literature: local arguments and global arguments. It argues that local arguments are best interpreted as demanding, not that one be reflectively aware of the reliability of the sources of one’s beliefs, but that one’s beliefs be attributable to one as one’s own. The article then argues that global arguments make illegitimate demands, because they require that we be ultimately answerable for our beliefs. In the end, the article argues that epistemologists should shift their focus away from reflective luck and toward the conditions under which beliefs are attributable to cognitive agents.