Mathematical Model For Assessment Research Articles

A Risk Assessment Model for Navigation Safety of Maritime Aquaculture Platform Based on AIS Ship Trajectory

With the rapid increase of maritime aquaculture platform, how to reduce its impact on maritime traffic safety is of great significance to the rapid development of shipping. According to the characteristics of aquaculture platform and maritime environment, The aquaculture platform is superimposed on the ship AIS (Automatic identification systems) big data traffic flow analysis platform. The effects of the distance between the marine aquaculture platform and shipping routes, port facilities and cargo vessel traffic flow channels were studied. The effects between the platform and meteorological conditions, fishing vessel activity and passenger routes were studied. The mathematical assessment model of navigation safety risk of aquaculture platform based on MTLAB was studied. Taking the “Qiandong No. 1” semi-submersible wave energy farming platform as an example. The navigation safety risk assessment is carried out and the risk control measures are put forward. Experiments are carried out with actual data and the effectiveness of the proposed method is proved.

الخصائص الفيزيائية والكيميائية الكاذبة والديناميكية الحرارية للغازات الطبيعية

Physiochemical, pseudocritical, pseudoreduced and thermodynamic properties play an important role for determination natural gas quality and specifications. Nowadays natural gas regard as one of the importance natural source of energy supply due to its high heating value, clean source, no emissions and environmental friendly. In addition, it began to replace the oil as a fuel in various purposes and as essential feed for petrochemical industries. Consequently, the different properties of natural gas mixtures must be investigated to determine their specifications. This study was aiming to distinguish these properties using correlations and mathematical models for assessment. These properties include the physical such as molecular weight (M_w), density(ρ), specific gravity(γ), compressibility factor (z), gas viscosity (μ_g), gas formation volume factor (B_g), gas thermal compressibility (C_g) and water content as well as pseudocritical pressure (p_pc), pseudocritical temperature (T_pc), pseudoreduced pressure (p_pr), pseudoreduced temperature (T_pr). Also, the thermodynamic properties e. g. Gross heating value, thermal conductivity, and specific heat of natural gas mixtures were determined. The study has been conducted on the natural gases of Zelten, Al Ragoba, Al Hotaiba gasfields and Al Braiga terminal to predict and estimate the physical, pseudocritical and thermodynamic properties by using correlation and mathematical models methods. The obtained results revealed that there is a variance between these properties of the natural gas mixtures, which may be attributed to the chemical compositions of components and their behaviors. On the other hand, these characterizations can be used as guide to understand the gases behavior during the different operations and natural gases treatment processes. Keywords: Natural gas, physiochemical, pseudocritical, pseudoreduced thermodynamic properties, and correlations

DIGITALISATION AS A FACTOR OF SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE STATE

The modern Ukrainian economy is in a dire situation. It cannot function normally when active hostilities are taking place in the country. Therefore, the problem of determining the factors of the socioeconomic development of the state and its economic security now comes to the fore. Among them, the digitalisation of the country plays an important role. Considering the relevance of the recovery of the Ukrainian economy, which suffered a decline due to the war, it is considered appropriate to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the digitisation state of the country by modern methods. The paper is devoted to the problem of interdependence estimation of the digitisation and socioeconomic development indices of the country. The article aims to improve the complex of mathematical models for assessment and analysis of the digitisation state of the country, which will be supplemented with a model of interdependence indicators of digitisation and socioeconomic development of the state. Implementing the model will allow for determining digitalisation development directions, estimating the socioeconomic development level of the state, as well as ensuring its economic security. In the process of research, the following tasks were set to be solved: to select and form a base of indicators necessary for modelling; to develop a model; to investigate the canonical correlation between socioeconomic and digital development indicators by the canonical analysis methods; to investigate the dispersion of canonical variables observations and to find out the most significant areas of digitalisation improvement. As a result of the study, the highest correlation was evaluated between the network readiness index and the socioeconomic progress index (coefficient 0.98). The socioeconomic progress index is also related to the e-government development index (0.92) and the information and communication technology development index (0.90). Thus, the analysis performed in the paper of the correlation between the sets of digitalisation and the socioeconomic development indexes allows us to conclude the presence of a high level of their significant influence and the importance of forming a system of measures to ensure the proper level of the digital development of the country in these directions. Keywords: modelling, methods, canonical analysis, digitalisation, socioeconomic development, economic security of the state.

Revised mathematical model for assessment of thermal characteristics developed in ultrafast pulse laser assisted nanoimprinting lithography on silicon based substrate surface

Revised mathematical model for assessment of thermal characteristics developed in ultrafast pulse laser assisted nanoimprinting lithography on silicon based substrate surface

Youtube Math Video Content for Optimization of Blended Learning with Assessment Using the Moodle Application as an Objective Evaluation Strategy

Online and direct learning (blended learning) requires support for optimizing student competency achievements as well as alternative choices of assessment model that are objective, practical, and effective in measuring student learning outcomes in a valid way. This best practice writing uses a qualitative descriptive approach with the aim of, firstly, to describe the use of math learning video content on youtube social media accounts to support the optimization of student competency achievements. Second, describe the online assessment model in mathematics subjects based on the moodle application. Third, describe the ease of application of learning and assessment in terms of practicality for teacher and accessibility for students. The research data collection technique uses documentation and observations of the learning and assessment system that has been used so far as well as and interviews with vice principal for curriculum, teachers, and students. The results of the study indicate that the use of youtube content in the form of math learning videos can support the optimization of student competency achievements. While the online mathematical assessment model based on the moodle application with the multiple-choice model could display random questions well, namely random questions from the question bank, random number of questions, and random answer options. Making video content in an easy and practical way using the powerpoint and active presenter application then uploading it to youtube social media account. While the online assessment model is also easy and practical to use in all subjects with the help of the examview application and can be apllied to daily assessments, midterm assessments, end-of-semester assessment, and school exams.

Assessment of occupational risks and severity of health disorders in the divisions of the Federal Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia

Relevance. Currently, a significant number of approaches to the assessment of occupational risks as a result of exposure to harmful and dangerous factors of industrial activity are presented in the scientific, regulatory and legal literature. To assess occupational risks for the personnel of fire protection, risks of injury, morbidity, disability and mortality are calculated. However, no single method exists for calculating the integral index for final assessment of occupational health risk in personnel of Federal Fire Service (FFS) of EMERCOM of Russia.Intention: To develop a mathematical model for assessing occupational risks for fire protection units including workdays lost related to health disorders severity.Methodology. When developing a mathematical model for assessing occupational risks for the FPS of EMERCOM of Russia including workdays lost related to health disorders severity, risks to health and life of employees were directly assessed based on the following statistics (2015–2019): a) probability of hazardous situations; and b) the amount of health damage expressed as workdays lost. Coefficients of the health damage severity in the mathematical model are justified. For assessing rare occupational risks as well as in small groups, the continuity correction is proposed for injury and death risks.Results and Discussion. Various methods of assessing occupational risks for industrial activity are considered. The mathematical model for occupational risk assessment in the divisions of the FPS of EMERCOM of Russia based on workdays lost related to health disorders severity helps predict occupational risks to life and health. Occupational risks are calculated in terms of workdays lost related to health damage severity for employees of the FPS of EMERCOM of Russia for 2015–2019.Conclusion. Based on the mathematical model of occupational risks for the FPS of EMERCOM of Russia including workdays lost related to health disorders severity, specific occupational risks can be predicted for every specific workplace (position) in various regions of the Russian Federation.

Intelligent Support for Selection of Therapeutic Stabilization Schemes in Mixed Ischemic Injury

A methodology based on synthesis of hybrid fuzzy models was used to obtain a system of mathematical models for assessment of the severity of ischemic processes in the central hemodynamic system, the lower limbs, the heart, and the brain, and for classification of normal, latent, reversive, and critical states of the organs of interest. An algorithm for selection of rational prophylactic and treatment schemes was developed for different classes of states of the organs of interest. As compared with conventional treatment schemes, and using a variety of criteria for assessment of efficacy, the algorithm proposed here provided 2.4-fold faster (by 58%) achievement of positive results and a 2.5-fold (by 73%) decrease in the risk of limb amputation.

К вопросу об оценке пожарной безопасности рабочих мест персонала компрессорных цехов газотранспортных предприятий

The method is considered related to fire safety evaluation of the workplaces located in the engine room of the compressor shop. The method is based on the methodology for evaluating safety of the systems at various levels (workplace, shop, enterprise). The method of constructing a scenario for the occurrence and development of a fire using cause and effect diagram (Ishikawa Diagram) based on the principle of «action — reaction» is shown. The mathematical model for assessment of the probability of implementing a fire scenario at a production facility, and the model for assessment of the probability of personnel evacuation in case of fire are considered. When developing a model for assessing the likelihood of personnel evacuation, the results of studies were used related to the time of the beginning of people evacuation conducted by the State Fire Service Academy of EMERCOM of Russia. The results of experiments on the evacuation of personnel from the technological structure of gas processing plant and from the compartments of gas-pumping unit are also shown.  The results of the practical implementation of the proposed approach on the examples of constructing fire scenario and assessment of the possibility of fire occurrence due to surge of the operating point of a centrifugal blower are presented.  The likelihood of the specified fire scenario occurrence is estimated. The estimation of the likelihood of personnel evacuation in case of fire in the engine room of the compressor shop is presented. The options for calculating the time of evacuation of the employees based on the specific conditions, parameters that characterize the specifics of people behavior in case of fire, as well as the reliability of the notification and evacuation management system are proposed. Comparison is made between the suggested models and the models used in the normative documents in the field of fire safety on the example of the evacuation of the compressor shop personnel located at the time of fire in the compartments of gas pumping unit. It is shown that the developed models allow for a more complete assessment of all the factors that affect the probability of employee evacuation. The option of using the proposed models for calculating an individual risk value, which is proposed to be considered as a criterion for the assessment of the workplaces fire safety, is discussed in the article.

Estimation level of public welfare on the basis of methods of intellectual analysis

In the context of globalization of economic development processes, the issue of determining the level of public welfare of economic agents is particularly burning. The object of ehis study is the process of assessing welfare of the economic entities system. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of modeling and measuring the public welfare. The aim of the work is to develop the mathematical model for measuring the welfare of Ukraine using methods of intellectual analysis, namely, the theory of fuzzy sets. The output of the study is a new approach to objective estimation of public welfare of the state. It is proposed to assess the level of public welfare of the state on the basis of a mathematical model developed on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets. Input factors of the model are international indices and indicators, such as Index of Economic Freedom, Global Peace Index, Democracy Index, Corruption Perceptions Index, Human Development Index, Prosperity Index, Global Competitiveness Index as well as an indicator that reflects the characteristic property of the Ukrainian economy, namely the minimum living wage. Developed mathematical model for assessment of the level of public welfare of Ukraine and made a prediction of the indicator by 2024 on the basis of the above indices. The results of the study allowed us to establish that the level of public welfare (units) in Ukraine on a scale from 0 to 100 will be equal to 25, 17, 32, 26, and 28 in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, accordingly.

Fuzzy logic model for stability assessment of underground facilities

A proper assessment of the stability leads to proactive decision making for the method of construction, the shape and size of the cross-section of the facility and the adequate support. The stability is directly dependent on the physical, mechanical and technical characteristics of the rock mass. The traditional assessment-based approach and the classification of stability of underground facilities is based on both experience and experiments with previously constructed facilities. To ease the process for the early phase of design, there was a need for the development of a mathematical model for assessment of the stability. Ambiguity in mining engineering, directs the development of the model using a fuzzy logic system and fuzzy if-then rules. The model was developed based on very scarce input data that is most often the only data available during the design stage. Fuzzy model results have shown, through the random selection of input data in the model, that in 70% of cases, there is high numerical congruence with the traditional method for determination of coefficient of stability S; and in 90% of cases, there is also congruence in accordance with the traditional approach to the classification of underground facilities based on the stability assessment.

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ И АНАЛИЗ МЕТОДОВ ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЯ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ ПРОПАНТНОГО ГИДРОРАЗРЫВА ПЛАСТА

Актуальность. Большинство месторождений ООО «ЛУКОЙЛ-ПЕРМЬ» находятся на завершающей стадии разработки, и на них выполняется большое количество операций гидроразрыва пласта (ГРП). В условиях высокой выработки запасов, обводнения скважин и снижения пластового давления необходимо планировать проведение ГРП на тех скважинах, где может быть получен максимальный прирост дебитов нефти. Цель: разработка методики прогноза дебитов нефти с использованием вероятностно-статистических методов. Объекты: данные по использованию пропантного ГРП на карбонатном В3В4 объекте Батырбайского месторождения. Методы: анализ данных по оценке эффективности ГРП с помощью использования вероятностно-статистических методов. Результаты. С использованием вероятностно-статистического метода построены многомерные математические модели оценки эффективности ГРП, которые позволили определить приросты дебитов нефти. Одним из основных преимуществ вероятностно-статистического метода является то, что все используемые для прогноза показатели, имеющие различные размерности, были переведены в безразмерные величины, что упрощает сопоставительный анализ. Кроме этого, выполнено сравнение полученных приростов дебитов нефти с методом расчета дебита жидкости через удельный коэффициент продуктивности. Выполненный анализ показал, что разработанный вероятностно-статистический метод прогноза обеспечивает более точную сходимость с фактическими данными по приростам дебитов нефти, в отличие от результатов, полученных по методу удельного коэффициента продуктивности. Значения коэффициентов парной корреляции для вероятностно-статистического метода составили по объекту разработки В3В4 – 0,85, тогда как по методу удельной продуктивности, соответственно, – 0,15, что на статистическом уровне подтверждает более высокую эффективность предлагаемого метода.

A Set of Economic and Mathematical Models for Assessment of Agricultural Crop Cultivation Technologies

Research objectives. The paper describes the process of development of a set of mathematical models for assessment of agricultural production technologies to be used as the basis of a software complex module for managing technological processes in crop farming. The reported study was funded by RFBR according to the research project № 18-37-00148. Methods. Given the specifics of management in agriculture, it is worth noting that the lack of objective information across the production cycle in crop farming and the subsequent misalignment with an optimum technology results in overshooting labour and material costs, lost profits for the enterprise or even losses. These issues have to be addressed through advanced studies of economic and mathematical models and methods for analysis and assessment of economic efficiency of agricultural crop cultivation technologies and the development of a comprehensive automated information support system for decision-making in crop farming management. Results. A methodology is proposed for selecting economically efficient technological processes in crop farming, involving the sequential application of results obtained through the analysis of technological process criteria by the methods of binary decision matrices, cobweb diagrams and the matrix assessment model, taking into account their orientation at the economic performance of crop farming. Practical significance and applicability of results. The authors developed a complex of software and information support and assessment of technological processes in crop farming, with experimental trials showing improved efficiency of crop farming production through the well-reasoned selection of agricultural crop cultivation technologies.

Математические модели оценки безопасности в районе падения элементов кассетного боевого оснащения при отработке ракетного комплекса

Математические модели оценки безопасности в районе падения элементов кассетного боевого оснащения при отработке ракетного комплекса

Mathematical model for assessment of voltage disturbing sources in networks with distributed power generation

Mathematical model for assessment of voltage disturbing sources in networks with distributed power generation

Математические модели оценки деятельности промышленных предприятий в условиях нестабильности

Логиновский Олег Витальевич, д-р техн. наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой информационно-аналитического обеспечения управления в социальных и экономических системах, Южно-Уральский государственный университет, г. Челябинск; loginovskiyo@mail.ru. Дранко Олег Иванович, канд. физ.-мат. наук, заместитель заведующего кафедрой инновационного менеджмента, Московский физико-технический институт, г. Москва; olegdranko@gmail.com. Голлай Александр Владимирович, канд. хим. наук, доцент кафедры информационно- аналитического обеспечения управления в социальных и экономических системах, Южно- Уральский государственный университет, г. Челябинск; alexander@hollay.ru. O.V. Loginovskiy1, loginovskiyo@mail.ru, O.I. Dranko2, olegdranko@gmail.com, A.V. Hollay1, alexander@hollay.ru 1 South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation, 2 Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation

Software Systems for Prediction and Immediate Assessment of Emergency Situations on Municipalities Territories

The comparative analysis of key features of the software systems TOXI+Risk and ALOHA is presented. The authors made a comparison of domestic (TOXI+Risk) and foreign (ALOHA) software systems allowing to give the quantitative assessment of impact areas (pressure, thermal, toxic) in case of hypothetical emergencies in potentially hazardous objects of the oil, gas, chemical, petrochemical and oil-processing industry. Both software systems use different mathematical models for assessment of the release rate of a chemically hazardous substance from a storage tank and its evaporation. The comparison of the accuracy of definition of impact areas made by both software systems to verify the examples shows good convergence of both products. The analysis results showed that the ALOHA software can be actively used for forecasting and immediate assessment of emergency situations, assessment of damage as a result of emergencies on the territories of municipalities.

Simulation of car movement along circular path

Under operating conditions, suspension system performance changes which negatively affects vehicle stability and handling. The paper aims to simulate the impact of changes in suspension system performance on vehicle stability and handling. Methods. The paper describes monitoring of suspension system performance, testing of vehicle stability and handling, analyzes methods of suspension system performance monitoring under operating conditions. The mathematical model of a car movement along a circular path was developed. Mathematical tools describing a circular movement of a vehicle along a horizontal road were developed. Turning car movements were simulated. Calculation and experiment results were compared. Simulation proves the applicability of a mathematical model for assessment of the impact of suspension system performance on vehicle stability and handling.

A Mathematical Model for Assessment of Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Activities: Cases of the East of Morocco (Africa)

Objectives: The work aims to presents a novel application of mathematical modelling framework that is assesses Socioeconomic impact of climate change on agriculture activities, taking into account the agricultural, socio-economic and hydrology systems. Methods and Novelty: An integrated model disaggregated by type of farms was developed for a pilot area named “Ait Ben Yacoub » located in the East of Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic hydraulic and social data. One Major contribution of this model is a detailed disaggregation by spatial units (hydrological units, cropping areas) and by farm sizes to assess the social impact of climate change on different types of farms. It’s an optimization model with a nonlinear objective function and that was calibrated with the use of the positive mathematical programming method. Findings: The model results show the tremendous impact of climate change on farmers’ incomes and on their living standards. It also shows that small farms of less than 2ha in area will be most vulnerable to climate change. Applications: The current work was designed to build a tool for analysis and support for decision making regarding policy on the allocation of the water resource, and also allowing a better reflection on the issue of water valorization in agricultural sector.

Innovative activity as transformation of its intellectual activity

The attention is given to the nature of the category “innovative activity”, which is based on assessment practice of the coherence of the concepts “intelligence of the organizations” and “innovative activity”. It is also specified that it is necessary to develop a system of indicators for the evaluation of innovative activities by which it is possible to identify the internal factors of the organization on the basis of knowledge economics. The mathematical assessment model of “intellectual activity” is proposed

Technique of performing construction works by machines with hybrid: manual and remote control

The article discusses issues dealing with efficiency of construction work mechanization. It offers a mathematical model for assessment of mutual influence between the members of the ‘construction site-machine-operator’ system triad, that can give a quantitative assessment of how the efficiency of a technological task varies with more comprehensive use of operational capacities of the machine, while lower effect that limiting parameters of production environment and technical condition of the machine have on the operator. The article contains a constructive remote control solution for upgrade of the base machine. It describes the conditions for using the machines with hybrid: manual and remote control at construction sites. There is also an imitation model of operator’s scanning pattern and data experimental research that prove the efficiency of remotely controlled technological operations. The article proves that lower psychological load on the operator and better comfort contribute to positive economic effect and higher quality of the construction process.