Mathematical Model For Transmission Research Articles

Mathematical modeling and optimal control analysis of COVID-19 in Ethiopia

In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of the pandemic COVID-19 transmission in Ethiopia, which allows transmission by exposed humans. We proposed an SEIR model using system of ordinary differential equations. First the major qualitative analysis, like the disease free equilibruim point(DFEP), basic reproduction number, stability analysis of equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis was rigorously analysed. Second, we introduced time dependent controls to the basic model and extended to an optimal control model of the disease. We then analysed using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the pandemic. The numerical simulation indicated that, an integrated strategy effective in controling the epidemic and the gvernment must apply all control strategies in combating COVID-19 at short period of time.

Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement

Newly available datasets present exciting opportunities to investigate how human population movement contributes to the spread of infectious diseases across large geographical distances. It is now possible to construct realistic models of infectious disease dynamics for the purposes of understanding global-scale epidemics. Nevertheless, a remaining unanswered question is how best to leverage the new data to parameterize models of movement, and whether one's choice of movement model impacts modeled disease outcomes. We adapt three well-studied models of infectious disease dynamics, the susceptible-infected-recovered model, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, and the Ross-Macdonald model, to incorporate either of two candidate movement models. We describe the effect that the choice of movement model has on each disease model's results, finding that in all cases, there are parameter regimes where choosing one movement model instead of another has a profound impact on epidemiological outcomes. We further demonstrate the importance of choosing an appropriate movement model using the applied case of malaria transmission and importation on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, finding that one model produces intelligible predictions of R 0, whereas the other produces nonsensical results.

Ending risk-group HBV vaccination for MSM after the introduction of universal infant HBV vaccination: A mathematical modelling study

BackgroundRisk-group HBV vaccination for men who have sex with men (MSM) was introduced in the Netherlands in 2002, followed by universal infant vaccination in 2011, that will enable termination of risk-group vaccination over time. The introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention might result in increased HBV testing and vaccination against HBV. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the transition from risk-group to universal HBV vaccination, accounting for improvements in HBV testing and treatment, as well as the introduction of PrEP. MethodsWe developed a mathematical model for HBV transmission among MSM. Universal vaccination was modelled by assigning some MSM (5–15% in 2028 increasing to 80–90% in 2033 and thereafter) to be vaccinated when they become sexually active. We investigated different scenarios assuming 0.5% extra vaccination rate and 0.5% extra testing rate due to PrEP consultations; and 5% of HIV-negative MSM on PrEP, that will reduce the probability of HBV acquisition by 88%. ResultsUniversal vaccination resulted in a reduction of 24% (interquartile range; 22–25%) of the total number of HBV infections among MSM estimated to occur from 2020 to 2070. With universal vaccination, terminating risk-group vaccination in 2030 or 2040 resulted in 30% or 10% more HBV infections over 2020–2070, respectively, compared to continuation of risk-group vaccination until 2070. With PrEP and continued risk-group vaccination, the total number of HBV infections over 2020–2070 was reduced by 13%. ConclusionsUniversal HBV vaccination can lead to a major reduction in HBV incidence among MSM in the future. The reduction becomes smaller when ending risk-group HBV vaccination, but larger by PrEP use for HIV prevention. Efforts to keep high levels of HBV vaccination, testing, and treatment have to be continued in the coming decades in order to eliminate HBV as a health threat for MSM.

Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria. Using all-cause mortality data, we fit a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported mortality, estimating that 1.25% of COVID-19 deaths (sensitivity range 1.00% – 3.00%) have been reported as of 2 September 2020. By 2 September, we estimate that 4,380 (95% CI: 3,250 – 5,550) COVID-19 deaths in Damascus may have been missed, with 39.0% (95% CI: 32.5% – 45.0%) of the population in Damascus estimated to have been infected. Accounting for under-ascertainment corroborates reports of exceeded hospital bed capacity and is validated by community-uploaded obituary notifications, which confirm extensive unreported mortality in Damascus.

Modelling the impact of plasma therapy and immunotherapy for recovery of COVID-19 infected individuals.

Since the first case of COVID-19 was detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, COVID-19 has become a pandemic causing a global economic and public health emergency. There is no known treatment or vaccine available for COVID-19 during the initial period of the outbreak. Immunotherapy and plasma therapy has been used with satisfactory efficacy over the past two decades in many viral infections like SARS (Systemic Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and H1N1. Limited data from China show clinical benefit, radiological resolution, reduction in viral loads and improved survival. We aim to create a mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission and then apply various control parameters to see their effects on recovery from COVID-19 disease. We have formulated a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations, calculated basic reproduction R_{0} and applied five different controls (self-isolation, quarantine, herd immunity, immunotherapy, plasma therapy) to test the effectiveness of plasma therapy. Control optimality was checked by Lagrangian functions. Numerical simulations and bifurcation analysis were carried out. The study concludes that the COVID-19 outbreak can be controlled up to a significant level in three weeks after applying all the control strategies together. These strategies lead to reduction in hospitalization and a rise in recovery from infection. Immunotherapy is highly effective initially in hospitalized infected individuals however better results were seen in the long term with plasma therapy.

Optimal Control Analysis of Cholera Dynamics in the Presence of Asymptotic Transmission

Many mathematical models have explored the dynamics of cholera but none have been used to predict the optimal strategies of the three control interventions (the use of hygiene promotion and social mobilization; the use of treatment by drug/oral re-hydration solution; and the use of safe water, hygiene, and sanitation). The goal here is to develop (deterministic and stochastic) mathematical models of cholera transmission and control dynamics, with the aim of investigating the effect of the three control interventions against cholera transmission in order to find optimal control strategies. The reproduction number Rp was obtained through the next generation matrix method and sensitivity and elasticity analysis were performed. The global stability of the equilibrium was obtained using the Lyapunov functional. Optimal control theory was applied to investigate the optimal control strategies for controlling the spread of cholera using the combination of control interventions. The Pontryagin’s maximum principle was used to characterize the optimal levels of combined control interventions. The models were validated using numerical experiments and sensitivity analysis was done. Optimal control theory showed that the combinations of the control intervention influenced disease progression. The characterisation of the optimal levels of the multiple control interventions showed the means for minimizing cholera transmission, mortality, and morbidity in finite time. The numerical experiments showed that there are fluctuations and noise due to its dependence on the corresponding population size and that the optimal control strategies to effectively control cholera transmission, mortality, and morbidity was through the combinations of all three control interventions. The developed models achieved the reduction, control, and/or elimination of cholera through incorporating multiple control interventions.

Underlying dynamics of crime transmission with memory

Various studies suggest different mathematical models of integer order differential equations predict crime. But these models do not inherit non-local property, which depicts behavior changes due to contact with criminals for a long period. To overcome this, a fractional-order mathematical model of crime transmission is proposed in this study. The proposed model considers the previous effects of the input while predicting the crime growth rate. A mathematical model of crime transmission inherited with memory property is proposed in this study to analyze crime congestion. Abstract compartmental parameters of fractional crime transmission equation, which illustrates various stages of criminal activity, were employed to analyze crime contagion in the society. The present study demonstrates the progression of the flow of population by classifying into three systems based on involvement in crime and imprisonment by considering the criminal history of an individual. Subsequently, the equilibria of the three-dimensional fractional crime transmission model are evaluated using phase-plane analysis. The Lyapunov function is employed to determine threshold conditions to achieve a crime-free society.

Estimating the potential impact of Attractive Targeted Sugar Baits (ATSBs) as a new vector control tool for Plasmodium falciparum malaria

BackgroundAttractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) are a promising new tool for malaria control as they can target outdoor-feeding mosquito populations, in contrast to current vector control tools which predominantly target indoor-feeding mosquitoes.MethodsIt was sought to estimate the potential impact of these new tools on Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in African settings by combining data from a recent entomological field trial of ATSBs undertaken in Mali with mathematical models of malaria transmission. The key parameter determining impact on the mosquito population is the excess mortality due to ATSBs, which is estimated from the observed reduction in mosquito catch numbers. A mathematical model capturing the life cycle of P. falciparum malaria in mosquitoes and humans and incorporating the excess mortality was used to estimate the potential epidemiological effect of ATSBs.ResultsThe entomological study showed a significant reduction of ~ 57% (95% CI 33–72%) in mosquito catch numbers, and a larger reduction of ~ 89% (95% CI 75–100%) in the entomological inoculation rate due to the fact that, in the presence of ATSBs, most mosquitoes do not live long enough to transmit malaria. The excess mortality due to ATSBs was estimated to be lower (mean 0.09 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.07–0.11 per day) than the bait feeding rate obtained from one-day staining tests (mean 0.34 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.28–0.38 per day).ConclusionsFrom epidemiological modelling, it was predicted that ATSBs could result in large reductions (> 30% annually) in prevalence and clinical incidence of malaria, even in regions with an existing high malaria burden. These results suggest that this new tool could provide a promising addition to existing vector control tools and result in significant reductions in malaria burden across a range of malaria-endemic settings.

A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public.

The number of COVID-19 cases is continuously increasing in different countries including the Philippines. It is estimated that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 is around 1.5–4 (as of May 2020). The basic reproduction number characterizes the average number of persons that a primary case can directly infect in a population full of susceptible individuals. However, there can be superspreaders that can infect more than this estimated basic reproduction number. In this study, we formulate a conceptual mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 between the frontliners and the general public. We assume that the general public has a reproduction number between 1.5 and 4, and frontliners (e.g. healthcare workers, customer service and retail personnel, food service crews, and transport or delivery workers) have a higher reproduction number. Our simulations show that both the frontliners and the general public should be protected against the disease. Protecting only the frontliners will not result in flattening the epidemic curve. Protecting only the general public may flatten the epidemic curve but the infection risk faced by the frontliners is still high, which may eventually affect their work. The insights from our model remind us of the importance of community effort in controlling the transmission of the disease.

Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990-2015.

BackgroundRabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990–2015.MethodologyCombining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results.Principal findingsResults suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns.ConclusionsAnnual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of district-wide seasonal malaria chemoprevention when implemented through routine malaria control programme in Kita, Mali using fixed point distribution

BackgroundSeasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is a strategy for malaria control recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2012 for Sahelian countries. The Mali National Malaria Control Programme adopted a plan for pilot implementation and nationwide scale-up by 2016. Given that SMC is a relatively new approach, there is an urgent need to assess the costs and cost effectiveness of SMC when implemented through the routine health system to inform decisions on resource allocation.MethodsCost data were collected from pilot implementation of SMC in Kita district, which targeted 77,497 children aged 3–59 months. Starting in August 2014, SMC was delivered by fixed point distribution in villages with the first dose observed each month. Treatment consisted of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine once a month for four consecutive months, or rounds. Economic and financial costs were collected from the provider perspective using an ingredients approach. Effectiveness estimates were based upon a published mathematical transmission model calibrated to local epidemiology, rainfall patterns and scale-up of interventions. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated for the cost per malaria episode averted, cost per disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and cost per death averted.ResultsThe total economic cost of the intervention in the district of Kita was US $357,494. Drug costs and personnel costs accounted for 34% and 31%, respectively. Incentives (payment other than salary for efforts beyond routine activities) accounted for 25% of total implementation costs. Average financial and economic unit costs per child per round were US $0.73 and US $0.86, respectively; total annual financial and economic costs per child receiving SMC were US $2.92 and US $3.43, respectively. Accounting for coverage, the economic cost per child fully adherent (receiving all four rounds) was US $6.38 and US $4.69, if weighted highly adherent, (receiving 3 or 4 rounds of SMC). When costs were combined with modelled effects, the economic cost per malaria episode averted in children was US $4.26 (uncertainty bound 2.83–7.17), US $144 (135–153) per DALY averted and US $ 14,503 (13,604–15,402) per death averted.ConclusionsWhen implemented at fixed point distribution through the routine health system in Mali, SMC was highly cost-effective. As in previous SMC implementation studies, financial incentives were a large cost component.

Impact of screening on the prevalence and incidence of Mycoplasma genitalium and its macrolide resistance in men who have sex with men living in Australia: A mathematical model.

BackgroundMycoplasma genitalium (MG) causes a sexually transmitted infection (STI) with a rising rate of antimicrobial resistance. Currently, guidelines do not recommend screening asymptomatic men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a mathematical model of MG transmission to examine the impact of various screening strategies on the incidence and prevalence of MG among MSM attending a sexual health clinic.MethodsA compartmental mathematical model of MG transmission among MSM was constructed and calibrated using data from the Melbourne Sexual Health center, where resistance-guided therapy provides high treatment effectiveness (92–95%). The model stratified men by symptom status, sexual risk behaviours and whether or not they had MG with macrolide resistance. We simulated the impact on endemic steady-state MG prevalence and incidence of the following screening scenarios, namely screening: 1) no MSM; 2) only symptomatic MSM (the current recommendation); 3) all symptomatic and high-risk asymptomatic MSM; and 4) all MSM. Our base case analysis assumed a treatment effectiveness of 92–95% using resistance-guided therapy. We also examined the impact of treatment effectiveness (i.e. the proportion of detected MG that were cured) and screening coverage (i.e. testing rate) on MG prevalence.FindingsThe model predicts that the overall endemic MG prevalence is 9.1% (95% CI: 7.9–10.0) in the current situation where screening is only offered to symptomatic MSM (base-case). This would increase to 11·4% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 10.2–13.7) if no MSM are offered screening, but would decrease to 7.3% (95% CI: 5.7–8.4) if all symptomatic and high-risk asymptomatic MSM were offered screening and 6.4% (95% CI: 4.7–7·7) if all MSM were offered screening. Increasing coverage of MSM screening strategies shows a similar effect on decreasing endemic MG incidence. When evaluating the simultaneous impact of treatment effectiveness and screening coverage, we found that offering screening to more MSM may reduce the overall prevalence but leads to a higher proportion of macrolide-resistant MG, particularly when using treatment regimens with lower effectiveness.InterpretationBased on the available treatment options, offering screening for MG to other MSM (beyond the currently recommended group of symptomatic MSM) could slightly reduce the prevalence and incidence of MG. However, further increasing screening coverage must be weighed against the impact of lower treatment effectiveness (i.e. when not using resistance-guided therapy), increasing the selection of macrolide resistance, and other negative consequences related to AMR and management (e.g. unnecessary psychological morbidity from infections that do not need treatment).

Quantifying the risk of vector-borne disease transmission attributable to genetically modified vectors.

The relative risk of disease transmission caused by the potential release of transgenic vectors, such as through sterile insect technique or gene drive systems, is assessed with comparison with wild-type vectors. The probabilistic risk framework is demonstrated with an assessment of the relative risk of lymphatic filariasis, malaria and o'nyong'nyong arbovirus transmission by mosquito vectors to human hosts given a released transgenic strain of Anopheles coluzzii carrying a dominant sterile male gene construct. Harm is quantified by a logarithmic loss function that depends on the causal risk ratio, which is a quotient of basic reproduction numbers derived from mathematical models of disease transmission. The basic reproduction numbers are predicted to depend on the number of generations in an insectary colony and the number of backcrosses between the transgenic and wild-type lineages. Analogous causal risk ratios for short-term exposure to a single cohort release are also derived. These causal risk ratios were parametrized by probabilistic elicitations, and updated with experimental data for adult vector mortality. For the wild-type, high numbers of insectary generations were predicted to reduce the number of infectious human cases compared with uncolonized wild-type. Transgenic strains were predicted to produce fewer infectious cases compared with the uncolonized wild-type.

29791 Bird-delivered ivermectin as a novel urban West Nile virus prevention strategy

ABSTRACT IMPACT: Successful implementation of this control strategy will result in a commercially available ivermectin-treated birdfeed that the public can use to protect themselves from infection with West Nile virus (WNV) by reducing mosquito survival and thereby suppressing WNV transmission around their homes. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: We assessed the efficacy and feasibility of ivermectin (IVM)-treated birds as a mosquito control strategy for local reduction of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. We conducted a randomized field trial in backyard chickens and developed a mathematical model informed by field data to predict the impact of treated wild birds on transmission. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We placed 48 chickens in four treated and four untreated control flocks in backyards coops across Davis, CA and administered IVM daily in feed to treated flocks (Jul-Sep 2019). We assessed entomological indices weekly (i.e. Culex mosquito abundance, WNV infection prevalence, and parity rate) around each coop, monitored serum IVM levels in treated chickens, and tested for WNV antibodies in all chickens. Shifting our focus to wild birds, we developed a spatially-implicit mathematical model of WNV transmission near IVM-treated birdfeeders. Model parameters for bird movement were based on our telemetry of 27 birds in Fort Collins, CO (Aug-Sep 2020). Using the model, we predicted optimal deployment of treated feeders to provide local WNV control. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: WNV seroconversions were reduced in treated vs. untreated flocks, indicating a reduction in WNV transmission intensity at treated coops (P = 0.03). A sustained, but insignificant reduction in number of infected mosquitoes was observed near treated coops (P = 0.59); small sample sizes and below normal WNV prevalence in the study area limited our power. We anticipate that optimal spacing and number of IVM-treated birdfeeders required for effective WNV control in neighborhoods will depend on feeder usage rates by common bird species irrespective of WNV competence; broad availability of IVM-treated bloodmeals to mosquitoes will be more effective in reducing transmission than targeting the few species responsible for viral amplification. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: IVM is a novel method for controlling zoonotic pathogens in the US and has the potential for targeted mosquito control to reduce pesticide usage. Evaluating spatial deployment of IVM-treated bird feed for local reduction in WNV transmission is a stepping stone to commercial deployment of this WNV control strategy.

Mathematical Modelling of Oscillatory Processes in Transmission of Movement of an Electric Drive with Non-Linear Long Elastic Elements

Mathematical model of transmission of movement of an electric drive system that includes long elastic elements, including the non-linear relation between tensors of strength and deformation is presented in this article. Mentioned type of transmission is applied in the tasks related to special-purpose transport. A method that is based on integral modification of variational HamiltonOstrogradsky principle was applied for the presented model. Results of the computer simulation of oscillatory processes in transmission of movement of an electromechanical system are presented in the article.

A mathematical model for zoonotic transmission of malaria in the Atlantic Forest: Exploring the effects of variations in vector abundance and acrodendrophily.

Transmission foci of autochthonous malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax-like parasites have frequently been reported in the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern and Southern Brazil. Evidence suggests that malaria is a zoonosis in these areas as human infections by simian Plasmodium species have been detected, and the main vector of malaria in the Atlantic Forest, Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii, can blood feed on human and simian hosts. In view of the lack of models that seek to predict the dynamics of zoonotic transmission in this part of the Atlantic Forest, the present study proposes a new deterministic mathematical model that includes a transmission compartment for non-human primates and parameters that take into account vector displacement between the upper and lower forest strata. The effects of variations in the abundance and acrodendrophily of An. cruzii on the prevalence of infected humans in the study area and the basic reproduction number (R0) for malaria were analyzed. The model parameters are based on the literature and fitting of the empirical data. Simulations performed with the model indicate that (1) an increase in the abundance of the vector in relation to the total number of blood-seeking mosquitoes leads to an asymptotic increase in both the proportion of infected individuals at steady state and R0; (2) the proportion of infected humans at steady state is higher when displacement of the vector mosquito between the forest strata increases; and (3) in most scenarios, Plasmodium transmission cannot be sustained only between mosquitoes and humans, which implies that non-human primates play an important role in maintaining the transmission cycle. The proposed model contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of malaria transmission in the Atlantic Forest.

Hepatitis C treatment strategies in prisons: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

In Australian prisons approximately 20% of inmates are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), providing an important population for targeted treatment and prevention. A dynamic mathematical model of HCV transmission was used to assess the impact of increasing direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment uptake on HCV incidence and prevalence in the prisons in New South Wales, Australia, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternate treatment strategies. We developed four separate models reflecting different average prison lengths of stay (LOS) of 2, 6, 24, and 36 months. Each model considered four DAA treatment coverage scenarios of 10% (status-quo), 25%, 50%, and 90% over 2016–2045. For each model and scenario, we estimated the lifetime burden of disease, costs and changes in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in prison and in the community during 2016–2075. Costs and QALYs were discounted 3.5% annually and adjusted to 2015 Australian dollars. Compared to treating 10% of infected prisoners, increasing DAA coverage to 25%, 50%, and 90% reduced HCV incidence in prisons by 9–33% (2-months LOS), 26–65% (6-months LOS), 37–70% (24-months LOS), and 35–65% (36-months LOS). DAA treatment was highly cost-effective among all LOS models at conservative willingness-to-pay thresholds. DAA therapy became increasingly cost-effective with increasing coverage. Compared to 10% treatment coverage, the incremental cost per QALY ranged from $497-$569 (2-months LOS), -$280–$323 (6-months LOS), -$432–$426 (24-months LOS), and -$245–$477 (36-months LOS). Treating more than 25% of HCV-infected prisoners with DAA therapy is highly cost-effective. This study shows that treating HCV-infected prisoners is highly cost-effective and should be a government priority for the global HCV elimination effort.

A stochastic numerical analysis based on hybrid NAR-RBFs networks nonlinear SITR model for novel COVID-19 dynamics

Background: Mathematical modeling of vector-borne diseases and forecasting of epidemics outbreak are global challenges and big point of concern worldwide. The outbreaks depend on different social and demographic factors based on human mobility structured with the help of mathematical models for vector-borne disease transmission. In Dec 2019, an infectious disease is known as “coronavirus” (officially declared as COVID-19 by WHO) emerged in Wuhan (Capital city of Hubei, China) and spread quickly to all over the china with over 50,000 cases including more than 1000 death within a short period of one month. Multimodal modeling of robust dynamics system is a complex, challenging and fast growing area of the research.Objectives: The main objective of this proposed hybrid computing technique are as follows: The innovative design of the NAR-RBFs neural network paradigm is designed to construct the SITR epidemic differential equation (DE) model to ascertain the different features of the spread of COVID-19. The new set of transformations is introduced for nonlinear input to achieve with a higher level of accuracy, stability, and convergence analysis.Methods: Multimodal modeling of robust dynamics system is a complex, challenging and fast growing area of the research. In this research bimodal spread of COVID-19 is investigated with hybrid model based on nonlinear autoregressive with radial base function (NAR-RBFs) neural network for SITR model. Chaotic and stochastic data of the pandemic. A new class of transformation is presented for the system of ordinary differential equation (ODE) for fast convergence and improvement of desired accuracy level. The proposed transformations convert local optimum values to global values before implementation of bimodal paradigm.Results: This suggested NAR-RBFs model is investigated for the bi-module nature of SITR model with additional feature of fragility in modeling of stochastic variation ability for different cases and scenarios with constraints variation. Best agreement of the proposed bimodal paradigm with outstanding numerical solver is confirmed based on statistical results calculated from MSE, RMSE and MAPE with accuracy level based on mean square error up to 1E-25, which further validates the stability and consistence of bimodal proposed model.Conclusions: This computational technique is shown extraordinary results in terms of accuracy and convergence. The outcomes of this study will be useful in forecasting the progression of COVID-19, the influence of several deciding parameters overspread of COVID-19 and can help for planning, monitoring as well as preventing the spread of COVID-19.

Economic Evaluations of New Antibiotics: The High Potential Value of Reducing Healthcare Transmission Through Decolonization.

Antibiotics designed to decolonize carriers of drug-resistant organisms could offer substantial population health benefits, particularly if they can help avert outbreaks by interrupting person-to-person transmission chains. However, cost effectiveness of an antibiotic is typically evaluated only according to its benefits to recipients, which can be difficult to demonstrate for carriers of an organism that may not pose an immediate health threat to the carrier. We developed a mathematical transmission model to quantify the effects of 2 hypothetical antibiotics targeting carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) among long-term acute care hospital inpatients: one assumed to decrease the death rate of patients with CRE bloodstream infections (BSIs) and the other assumed to decolonize CRE carriers after clinical detection. We quantified the effect of each antibiotic on the number of BSIs and deaths among patients receiving the drug (direct effect) and among all patients (direct and indirect effect) compared to usual care. We applied these results to a cost-effectiveness analysis with effectiveness outcome of life-years gained and assumed costs for antibiotic doses and for CRE BSI. The decolonizing antibiotic, once indirect effects were included, produced increased relative effectiveness and decreased relative costs compared to both usual care and the BSI treatment antibiotic. In fact, in most scenarios, the decolonizing drug was the dominant treatment strategy (ie, less costly and more effective). Antibiotics that decolonize carriers of drug-resistant organisms can be highly cost-effective when considering indirect benefits within populations vulnerable to outbreaks. Public health could benefit from finding ways to incentivize development of decolonizing antibiotics in the US, where drugs with unclear direct benefits to recipients would pose difficulties in achieving FDA approval and financial benefit to the developer.

Modelling the impact of an HIV testing intervention on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China.

An intervention developed through participatory crowdsourcing methods increased HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men [MSM; relative risk (RR)=1.89]. We estimated the long-term impact of this intervention on HIV transmission among MSM in four cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinan and Qingdao). A mathematical model of HIV transmission, testing and treatment among MSM in China was parameterized using city-level demographic and sexual behaviour data and calibrated to HIV prevalence, diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage data. The model was used to project the HIV infections averted over 20years (2016-2036) from the intervention to increase self-testing, compared with current testing rates. Running the intervention once would avert<2.2% infections over 20years. Repeating the intervention (RR=1.89) annually would avert 6.4-10.7% of new infections, while further increases in the self-testing rate (hypothetical RR=3) would avert 11.7-20.7% of new infections. Repeated annual interventions would give a three- to seven-fold increase in long-term impact compared with a one-off intervention. Other interventions will be needed to more effectively reduce the HIV burden in this population.