Match Attendance Research Articles

Neural network models for group behavior prediction: a case of soccer match attendance

Soccer match attendance is an example of group behavior with noisy context that can only be approximated by a limited set of quantifiable factors. However, match attendance is representative of a wider spectrum of context-based behaviors for which only the aggregate effect of otherwise individual decisions is observable. Modeling of such behaviors is desirable from the perspective of economics, psychology, and other social studies with prospective use in simulators, games, product planning, and advertising. In this paper, we evaluate the efficiency of different neural network architectures as models of context in attendance behavior by comparing the achieved prediction accuracy of a multilayer perceptron (MLP), an Elman recurrent neural network (RNN), a time-lagged feedforward neural network (TLFN), and a radial basis function network (RBFN) against a multiple linear regression model, an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs, and a naive cumulative mean model. We show that the MLP, TLFN, and RNN are superior to the RBFN and achieve comparable prediction accuracy on datasets of three teams from the English Football League Championship, which indicates weak importance of context transition modeled by the TLFN and the RNN. The experiments demonstrate that all neural network models outperform linear predictors by a significant margin. We show that neural models built on individual datasets achieve better performance than a generalized neural model constructed from pooled data. We analyze the input parameter influences extracted from trained networks and show that there is an agreement between nonlinear and linear measures about the most significant attributes.

Consequences of the limit on foreign players in Russian football

This paper examines how a limit on foreign players has influenced national football in Russia. For this purpose, the effects on competition in the league, number of new young players in the national team and commercial value are investigated. Both positive and negative effects are examined. On the one hand, a quota on foreign players raised the competition in the Russian Premier League and captured attention of club owners on the development of youth academies. On the other hand, the negative effects included the reduction in the number of young players in the Russia national team, and the restriction in the invitation of international stars slowed down the growth of match attendance and commercial value. Therefore, because of the current limit, Russia became less competitive. However, if some of the measures suggested in this paper were to be implemented, Russia might improve its development of national football.

‘True fan = watch match’? In search of the ‘Authentic’ soccer fan

Academics have created typologies to divide association football (soccer) fans into categories based upon the ‘authenticity’ of their fandom practices. One of the main requirements of ‘authentic’ fandom has been assumed to be match attendance. The goal of this paper was to critically assess this assumption by considering how fans themselves talk about the significance of match attendance as evidence of ‘authentic’ fandom. In the light of the fact that the voices of English non-league fans on the ‘authenticity’ debate have so far been overshadowed by the overbearing focus of much previous research on the upper echelons of English soccer, an e-survey was conducted with 151 members of an online community of fans of English Northern League (NL) clubs (a semi-professional / amateur league based in North East England). Findings revealed that opinion was divided on the constituents of ‘authentic’ fandom and match attendance was not deemed to be the core evidence of support for a club by 42% of the sample. Elias (1978) suggested that dichotomous thinking hinders sociological understanding and it is concluded that fan typologies are not sufficient for assessing the ‘authenticity’ of fan activities.

Investigating Motivational Factors that Influence Football Match Attendance in the South African Premier Soccer League Post the 2010 FIFA World Cup

South Africa has a strong sporting culture and has successfully hosted big international sport events including the rugby, cricket, and soccer world cups. Spectators are an important factor in the success of such events. Using social exchange theory as the theoretical basis and employing motivational factors drawn from the literature on sport motivation, this study investigates the motivational factors that influence match attendance in the South African Premier Soccer League post the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The survey-based study employed a 26-item data collection instrument and a convenience sample of 70 respondents. Factor analysis was used to identifying six underlying motivational factors that influence match attendance. The findings show that the top three a priori motivational factors were entertainment, family appeal, and socialisation. These were supported by the factors extracted in the present study namely soccer subculture, family appeal, excitement seeking supporters, brand leisure seekers, entertainment, and vicarious achievers. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n20p563

The Relationship Between Outcome Uncertainties and Match Attendance: New Evidence in the National Basketball Association

This paper investigates the determinants of game-day attendance for the National Basketball Association for the 2009/2010-2011/2012 seasons. Six different measures of short-run league-level competitive balance and game uncertainty for two rivals are incorporated at the same time in a Tobit model. The results for the effect of league-level uncertainty support the hypotheses of outcome uncertainty, but the effect of game-level uncertainty does not. Closer wins by the competing teams within a league and a larger gap in terms of the point spread between two teams in the betting market lead to higher attendance.

The Effect of Star Quality on Attendance Demand

This article investigates the relationship between the star effect and match attendance in the National Basketball Association for the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 seasons. We include five different definitions of star players, measures of short-run league-level competitive balance, and game uncertainty for two rivals in a Tobit regression model. The evidence shows that the appearance of stars increases home and road game attendance. A positive star externality on game attendance is found.

Changes in laws and interpretations based on game information and trends

Introduction: The game of Australian Football is in great shape at the elite and community level, with record match attendances, TV audiences and participation levels in recent years. Some of the positive on-field trends have been influenced by continued monitoring and where necessary interventions in the form of rule and interpretation changes to enhance the appeal of the game. The charter of the Laws of the Game Committee is to keep the game entertaining and exciting, and safe to play in the confines of Australian Football being a body contact sport.

European football teams' CSR engagement impacts on customer‐based brand equity

PurposeBrand management is a central issue for the sports industry in general, and professional football clubs (usually called soccer teams in the USA) are the archetypal branded sport in that industry; the brand is their most important asset. Match attendance equates with financial return; patently it is a preoccupation of senior management. Metrics of brand performance need be up to date, and include contemporary issues such as corporate social responsibility (CSR) as a reflection of consumer expectations. This paper aims to address these issues.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology aims to evaluate consumers' perceptions and purchase behaviours. A sample survey of consumers' brand evaluations has been collected and factor and regression analyses have been employed.FindingsRecent models based on Keller's conceptual approach have not emphasized the evolution of societal concerns. Brand management in the football industry has to change to meet customer expectations better.Practical implicationsThis research demonstrates that professional football clubs may be different from other businesses. The research method used enables the evaluation of customer‐based brand equity. Findings suggest clubs' involvement in community activities influences brand image and customer behaviour. The sport entertainment industry requires a specific type of brand management and customer perceived ethicality has to be an integral part of the approach.Originality/valueBrand theories tend to stem from marketing and they are inclined to emphasize the same kind of product‐oriented concerns. However, customers expect more than watching an exciting game in a pleasant environment; they are affected by clubs' community involvement which impacts on the affect towards the brand. This is demonstrated through purchase behaviours of spectators. This research determines and evaluates these issues for the cases of two professional football clubs.

Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches*

This article develops a new simulation‐based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared with other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance incorporating match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004–2008. The probability of making the playoffs and home team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture broadly similar effects on attendance to the playoff probabilities.

Vuvuzelas at South African soccer matches: Risks for spectators′ hearing

South African Premier Soccer League (PSL) matches are known worldwide as some of the noisiest recreational events. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to i) measure noise levels during different PSL matches; ii) measure changes in auditory function after attending PSL matches; and iii) determine the factors that increase the risk of overexposure to noise during PSL matches. The study used a descriptive quantitative analytical pre- and post-exposure design. Participants (n = 19, and n = 10) attended two PSL matches. Each participant's auditory function was assessed using distortion product oto-acoustic emissions (DPOAEs) before and after attending a PSL match. Peak and equivalent continuous noise levels as well as noise dose were measured during each match. Noise levels recorded during the poorly attended Match 1 were lesser than those of the well-attended Match 2. Participants attending Match 2 had statistically significant reduction in their DPOAE amplitudes after the match (P = 0.003) than those attending Match 1. Vuvuzela blowers and participants seated within 1 m from them were most at risk of harm to their hearing with significant reduction in DPOAE amplitudes post the match (P = 0.002 and P = 0.008, respectively). It was therefore concluded that noise levels at well-attended South African PSL matches pose a significant risk to spectators' auditory function as shown by reduced DPOAE amplitude post match attendance. Three risk factors for overexposure to noise during the match were identified: blowing the vuvuzela, close proximity to the individual blowing the vuvuzela as well as spectator turnout at the match.

Attendance of Ice Hockey Matches in the Czech Extraliga

This paper uses data about 3,640 matches played in the seasons 2000/01-2009/10 to explain individual match attendance of the top Czech ice hockey competition – the Extraliga. Some interesting results are that fans decide whether to attend based on the detailed information about the home team, but use just the easily observable information about the away team; that a match having no impact on the final season outcome is much less attended; that televising a match decreases attendances of all matches played on the same day, but there is no negative next-day effect; that both very good and very bad weather decreases attendance; and that if two home matches are played in a short time period, their attendance is lower with likely higher impact on the second match. Substitution of ice hockey with soccer is investigated on several different levels – while ice hockey and soccer are definitely long-term substitutes, there are mixed results for same-day substitution. Modernization of ice hockey arenas is identified as the key factor behind the almost 20% attendance growth in the analyzed period. This paper also presents a new realistic method of modeling seasonal uncertainty based on Monte Carlo simulation that does not rely on ex post information.

Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches

This paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modeling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.

The impact of major sporting events on the economy and the people of a developing region: the case of the 2010 Fifa World Cup tournament

This paper explores the expected economic and social impact of the 2010 FIFA World Cup on South Africa. It investigates the justifi cation for spending of public funds towards the upgrading and building of sports stadia in South Africa as a developing country, and offers an empirical survey regarding probable match attendance and ticket prices.

Uncertainty of Outcome, Match Quality and Television Viewership of NPC Rugby Matches

This paper investigates whether uncertainty of contest outcome and match quality matter to television viewers of New Zealand National Provincial Championship (NPC) rugby matches. To date, nearly all uncertainty of outcome studies have focused on live match attendance. Furthermore, these studies often fail to account for quality effects. Using ratings data from a New Zealand commercial television channel, we estimate a demand function for broadcast First Division NPC games, which is specified in terms of outcome uncertainty, measures of contest quality, and several control variables. We find, at best, only weak evidence to support the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. However, we do find that quality matters strongly to fans. Further, our results indicate that factors such as viewers' affinity towards the competing teams, the importance of the game to the teams' prospects of making the championship playoffs, households' ability to meet pay-TV subscription charges, the timing of broadcasts, the number of games scheduled on match day, the availability of close sporting substitutes on television, and the spectacle element of matches are significant drivers of audienceship.

Unobserved Components in Competitive Balance and Match Attendances in the Australian Football League, 1945–2005: Where is all the Action Happening?*

A structural time‐series model is estimated to investigate the relation between competitive balance, measured by the actual‐to‐idealised standard deviation ratio, and average match attendance in the Australian Football League from 1945 to 2005. The unobserved components approach allows the data to be modelled in ways new to the literature on this topic. A seemingly unrelated time‐series version shows much of the explanatory power of the data to be in the irregular (fast‐moving) component. An OLS regression produces robust goodness‐of‐fit and diagnostic results, and the coefficient estimates produce inferences in contrast to those of Schmidt and Berri (2001), with persistent shocks.

DO SOCCER ASSOCIATIONS REALLY SPEND ON A GOOD THING? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON HETEROGENEITY IN THE CONSUMER RESPONSE TO MATCH UNCERTAINTY OF OUTCOME

The purpose of this study is to analyze whether previous results describing the effect of uncertainty of outcome on match attendance in team sports have been driven by heterogeneity in fan demand. We apply censored quantile regression methods and place particular emphasis on the relationship between match uncertainty and attendance demand, as previous results are highly ambiguous. This is more surprising, as each season association and league officials continue to spend millions on enhancing this uncertainty. We also control for season ticket holders, who are unlikely to be influenced by match specificities. Based on data from German soccer, our results indicate that fan demand shows heterogeneity across quantiles and that increasing match uncertainty of outcome exclusively benefits teams who already face strong attendance demand. (JEL D12, C14, C24, L83)

Insights for clubs from modelling match attendance in football

The paper employs data from 2884 matches in the English Football League Championship. It builds a model of determinants of attendance designed to yield results relevant to decision-taking at individual clubs. The model has two innovatory features. It controls for the market size of home and away teams precisely by including local population measures constructed from the application of GIS software and information on competition from other clubs. It incorporates these time-invariant covariates in a Hausman–Taylor random effects estimator to take explicit account of variables typically excluded in earlier studies based on fixed effects models. Unlike fixed effects results, Hausman–Taylor estimates permit assessment of the role of market size and quality of the playing squad in determining attendance. Results also quantify the reduction in attendance from televising a match and show that attendance diminishes when a match is played simultaneously with a televised game in a higher status competition.

Wer und was bestimmen die Zuschauerzahlen in der Fußballbundesliga?

Abstract We analyze the determinants of match attendance in the German premier football league („Fusballbundesliga“) in the seasons 2001/02 to 2004/05, i.e. for 1,224 matches. For that purpose, we specify an econometric model which takes the capacity constraint of each stadium and heteroskedasticity into account. Our results reveal that variables of all five categories of factors influencing the demand for sport mentioned by Borland und Macdonald (2003) are relevant in our context. These are the preferences of the fans, economic factors which capture opportunity costs, the quality of viewing, the sporting contest in the form of uncertainty about the winner of the championship and the supply capacity. We also find significant non-linearities and special „Bayern Munchen“ effects.

Local Heroes and Superstars

Recent studies of the demand for sports clearly indicate that stars play an important role in promoting fan interest. However, on theoretical grounds it is controversial if a star's talent superiority and/or a star's popularity drive match attendance and hence increase gate revenues. Using longitudinal match attendance data of all clubs in the first German soccer league in a 9-year period, the authors analyze star attraction of national superstars and of so-called ``local heroes'' defined as the most valued players of teams without national superstars. The authors find empirical evidence that these groups differ in the way they attract fans: whereas superstars enhance attendance both at home and on the road, the star attraction of local heroes is limited to home games. In addition, superstars attract fans by outstanding field performances, whereas local heroes facilitate fan support by mere popularity.

Attendance demand and core support: evidence from limited-overs cricket

In this paper we construct and estimate a model for match attendances in English one-day, limited-overs league cricket. Our dataset separates ‘pay at gate’ spectators from club members, enabling us to distinguish between the attendance decisions of casual spectators and those of the, potentially, more committed ‘core’ supporters. In addition to providing a more direct analysis of the relatively underdeveloped issue of ‘core support’, we also investigate variability within the core. Apart from providing further evidence regarding demand determination in professional team sports we consider some specific policy implications particular to the ‘peculiar’ sport of cricket.