The soft x-ray spectrometer (SXS) onboard the Hitomi satellite achieved a high-energy resolution of ∼4.9 eV at 6 keV with an x-ray microcalorimeter array cooled to 50 mK. The cooling system utilizes liquid helium, confined in zero gravity by means of a porous plug (PP) phase separator. For the PP to function, the helium temperature must be kept lower than the λ point of 2.17 K in orbit. To determine the maximum allowable helium temperature at launch, taking into account the uncertainties in both the final ground operations and initial operation in orbit, we constructed a thermal mathematical model of the SXS dewar and PP vent and carried out time-series thermal simulations. Based on the results, the maximum allowable helium temperature at launch was set at 1.7 K. We also conducted a transient thermal calculation using the actual temperatures at launch as initial conditions to determine flow and cooling rates in orbit. From this, the equilibrium helium mass flow rate was estimated to be ∼34 to 42 μg/s, and the lifetime of the helium mode was predicted to be ∼3.9 to 4.7 years. This paper describes the thermal model and presents simulation results and comparisons with temperatures measured in the orbit.