Glacier Mass Changes Research Articles

Possible Causes of Anomalous Glacier Mass Balance in the Western Kunlun Mountains

AbstractUnder current global warming, most glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau have shown significant mass loss during 2000–2019. However, the average glacier mass balance in the western Kunlun Mountains (WKM) was positive during this period. The causes of these opposing average status and the temporal glacier mass changes over the last several decades in the WKM continue to be the subject of active debate. The long‐term mass balance of the Guliya Ice Cap (Guliya) in the WKM during 1970–2019 was reconstructed using an energy and mass balance model and calibrated ERA5 data, which was calibrated and validated by in situ measurements and geodetic mass balances. Guliya showed a positive mean mass balance during 2000–2019 because annual snowfall was larger than low ablation‐season meltwater caused by low air temperature (T a ). At interannual scales, annual mass balances were equally controlled by ablation‐season precipitation and T a during 1970–2019. From 1970s–1990s to 1990s–2010s, most Tibetan glaciers showed decreased mass balance due to increased ablation season T a , while the WKM glaciers experienced increased mass balance due to increased ablation‐season precipitation related to changes in the Silk Road Pattern. However, during 2000–2019, the annual mass balance of Guliya followed a decreasing trend due to increasing ablation‐season T a . The positive mass balance of the WKM glaciers will cease under future warming due to annual snowfall decreasing below ablation‐season meltwater. These changes will threaten lives and livelihoods in the Tarim Basin, whilst also jeopardizing ice core‐derived climate histories from the WKM glaciers.

Quantifying Geodetic Mass Balance of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields Since 1976

Southern Andean glaciers contribute substantially to global sea-level rise. Unfortunately, mass balance estimates prior to 2000 are limited, hindering our understanding of the evolution of glacier mass changes over time. Elevation changes over 1976/1979 to 2000 derived from historical KH-9 Hexagon imagery and NASADEM provide the basis for geodetic mass balance estimates for subsets of the Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI), extending current mass balance observations by ∼20 years. Geodetic mass balances were −0.63 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr−1 for 63% of the NPI and −0.33 ± 0.05 m w.e. yr−1 for 52% of the SPI glacierized areas for this historical period. We also extend previous estimates temporally by 25% using NASADEM and ASTER elevation trends for the period 2000 to 2020, and find geodetic mass balances of −0.86 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr−1 for 100% of the NPI and −1.23 ± 0.04 m w.e. yr−1 for 97% of the SPI glacierized areas. 2000–2020 aggregations for the same areas represented in the 1976/1979 to 2000 estimates are −0.78 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr−1 in the NPI and −0.80 ± 0.04 m w.e. yr−1 on the SPI. The significant difference in SPI geodetic mass balance in the modern period for 100% vs. 52% of the glacierized area suggests subsampling leads to significant biases in regional mass balance estimates. When we compare the same areas in each time period, the results highlight an acceleration of ice loss by a factor of 1.2 on the NPI and 2.4 on the SPI in the 21st century as compared to the 1976/1979 to 2000 period. While lake-terminating glaciers show the most significant increase in mass loss rate from 1976/1979–2000 to 2000–2020, mass balance trends are highly variable within glaciers of all terminus environments, which suggests that individual glacier sensitivity to climate change is dependent on a multitude of morphological and climatological factors.

Global sea-level budget and ocean-mass budget, with a focus on advanced data products and uncertainty characterisation

Abstract. Studies of the global sea-level budget (SLB) and the global ocean-mass budget (OMB) are essential to assess the reliability of our knowledge of sea-level change and its contributors. Here we present datasets for times series of the SLB and OMB elements developed in the framework of ESA's Climate Change Initiative. We use these datasets to assess the SLB and the OMB simultaneously, utilising a consistent framework of uncertainty characterisation. The time series, given at monthly sampling and available at https://doi.org/10.5285/17c2ce31784048de93996275ee976fff (Horwath et al., 2021), include global mean sea-level (GMSL) anomalies from satellite altimetry, the global mean steric component from Argo drifter data with incorporation of sea surface temperature data, the ocean-mass component from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravimetry, the contribution from global glacier mass changes assessed by a global glacier model, the contribution from Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctic Ice Sheet mass changes assessed by satellite radar altimetry and by GRACE, and the contribution from land water storage anomalies assessed by the global hydrological model WaterGAP (Water Global Assessment and Prognosis). Over the period January 1993–December 2016 (P1, covered by the satellite altimetry records), the mean rate (linear trend) of GMSL is 3.05 ± 0.24 mm yr−1. The steric component is 1.15 ± 0.12 mm yr−1 (38 % of the GMSL trend), and the mass component is 1.75 ± 0.12 mm yr−1 (57 %). The mass component includes 0.64 ± 0.03 mm yr−1 (21 % of the GMSL trend) from glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica, 0.60 ± 0.04 mm yr−1 (20 %) from Greenland, 0.19 ± 0.04 mm yr−1 (6 %) from Antarctica, and 0.32 ± 0.10 mm yr−1 (10 %) from changes of land water storage. In the period January 2003–August 2016 (P2, covered by GRACE and the Argo drifter system), GMSL rise is higher than in P1 at 3.64 ± 0.26 mm yr−1. This is due to an increase of the mass contributions, now about 2.40 ± 0.13 mm yr−1 (66 % of the GMSL trend), with the largest increase contributed from Greenland, while the steric contribution remained similar at 1.19 ± 0.17 mm yr−1 (now 33 %). The SLB of linear trends is closed for P1 and P2; that is, the GMSL trend agrees with the sum of the steric and mass components within their combined uncertainties. The OMB, which can be evaluated only for P2, shows that our preferred GRACE-based estimate of the ocean-mass trend agrees with the sum of mass contributions within 1.5 times or 0.8 times the combined 1σ uncertainties, depending on the way of assessing the mass contributions. Combined uncertainties (1σ) of the elements involved in the budgets are between 0.29 and 0.42 mm yr−1, on the order of 10 % of GMSL rise. Interannual variations that overlie the long-term trends are coherently represented by the elements of the SLB and the OMB. Even at the level of monthly anomalies the budgets are closed within uncertainties, while also indicating possible origins of remaining misclosures.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Geodetic Mass Changes of Glaciers With Varying Debris Cover in the Pangong Region of Trans-Himalayan Ladakh, India Between 1990 and 2019

Glaciers across the Himalayan arc are showing varying signs of recession. Glaciers in the eastern and western parts of the Himalayan arc are retreating more rapidly as compared to other regions. This differential retreat is often attributed to climatic, topographic, and geologic influences. The glaciers in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh are believed to be relatively stable as compared to other parts of the western Himalaya. The present study ascertained the area changes and frontal retreat of 87 glaciers in the Pangong Region between 1990 and 2019 using satellite data. The geodetic mass changes were also assessed using SRTM and TanDEM-X digital elevation models of 2000 and 2012 respectively. Besides, the glacier outlines were delineated manually and compared with existing regional and global glacier inventories that are available over the region. The GlabTop model was used to simulate the glacier-bed overdeepenings of four glaciers that are associated with a proglacial lake. The study also analyzed the impact of topographic influences and varying debris cover on glacier recession. This analysis indicated deglaciation of 6.7 ± 0.1% (0.23% a−1) from 1990 to 2019 over the Pangong Region with clean-ice glaciers showing a higher retreat (8.4 ± 0.28%) compared to the debris-covered glaciers (5.7 ± 0.14%). However, the overall recession is lower compared to other parts of northwestern Himalayas. The glacier recession showed a positive correlation with mean glacier slope (r = 0.3) and debris cover (r = 0.1) with bigger size glaciers having retreated at a lesser pace compared to smaller ones. This underpins the need for in-situ data about debris thickness to precisely ascertain the role of debris on glacier recession in the Trans-Himalayan Ladakh where debris thickness data is absent. The mean glacier elevation did not indicate any influence on glacier recession. From 2000 to 12, the glaciers lost an ice mass amounting to 0.33 ± 0.05 m we. per year. The formation of four new proglacial lakes, although small (<6 ha), need to be monitored using remote sensing data while the infrastructure development activities should not be permitted given glacial lake outburst flood risk.

Glacier retreat creating new Pacific salmon habitat in western North America

Glacier retreat poses risks and benefits for species of cultural and economic importance. One example is Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), supporting subsistence harvests, and commercial and recreational fisheries worth billions of dollars annually. Although decreases in summer streamflow and warming freshwater is reducing salmon habitat quality in parts of their range, glacier retreat is creating new streams and lakes that salmon can colonize. However, potential gains in future salmon habitat associated with glacier loss have yet to be quantified across the range of Pacific salmon. Here we project future gains in Pacific salmon freshwater habitat by linking a model of glacier mass change for 315 glaciers, forced by five different Global Climate Models, with a simple model of salmon stream habitat potential throughout the Pacific Mountain ranges of western North America. We project that by the year 2100 glacier retreat will create 6,146 (±1,619) km of new streams accessible for colonization by Pacific salmon, of which 1,930 (±569) km have the potential to be used for spawning and juvenile rearing, representing 0 to 27% gains within the 18 sub-regions we studied. These findings can inform proactive management and conservation of Pacific salmon in this era of rapid climate change.

Constraining the contribution of glacier mass balance to the Tibetan lake growth in the early 21st century

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) hosts numerous glaciers and lakes which are critical natural water reserves but highly vulnerable to changing climate. In contrast to general drying trends in global endorheic basins in recent decades, the widespread lake expansions across the endorheic TP stand out as a puzzling “anomaly”. To quantify the contribution of glacier mass changes to lake expansion at fine basin-scale details, we compute spatially resolved estimation of mass change in both glaciers and lakes across the endorheic TP between 2000 and 2010/14 based on multi-mission remote sensing observations. Our glacier mass balance estimates were based on the differences between the newly released global TanDEM-X DEM and the historical SRTM-C DEM, which provide nearly complete coverage (98%) of the glacierized area on the endorheic TP. We provide lake water storage changes of all lakes >1 km2 on the inner TP. These estimates reveal that the massive lake water increase (9.44 ± 1.43 Gt yr−1) was essentially not from the mass loss of glaciers which represents only about 4.7 ± 8.8% of the lake water change (0.44 ± 0.80 Gt yr−1). The relationship in individual basins was, however, highly heterogeneous. About 20% of total lake storage gain had no causality with glacier feeding. In comparison, for 28% of lake water surplus, mainly in the northwestern TP, the positive glacier mass balance infers that glaciers retained some precipitation surplus that could otherwise have been drained to downstream lakes. For the other 52% of lake storage gain, mostly in southern and eastern regions, the glacier mass loss varied among the basins with limited contributing levels (mostly <20%). Our analyses highlight remarkable spatial and temporal variabilities in lake/glacier changes on the endoreic TP and contribute to a better understanding of the role of glaciers in the recent Tibetan lake growth and the impact of climate change on the two types of water reserves.

Current glacier status and ELA changes since the Late Pleistocene in the Hindu Kush Mountains of Afghanistan

• In the HKM, Afghanistan ELA shows less change from Late Pleistocene to the present. • Climate change impacts different sizes of glaciers differently. • Other than climate, slope and elevation can define the recession of glaciers. • Increase in volume and number of glacial lakes is on rise in the HKM, Afghanistan. The glacier cover of the Hindu Kush Mountains of Afghanistan provides a natural laboratory to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere. However, to date, not much is known about how the cryosphere in these mountainous regions is responding to climate change. Therefore, using an integrated approach including geospatial technology, climate data, a mass balance study, as well as topographic analysis, we present the first systematic study of glacier fluctuations in the Kokcha sub-basin of the Afghanistan Range for the last 25 years (1990 to 2015). The glacier cover and the number of glaciers in the basin have reduced from 576 km 2 and 1007 in 1990 to 492 km 2 and 998 in 2015 respectively, losing ~84 km 2 (~15%) of the total glaciated area. Besides the mass loss of the glaciers ranges from −0.65 m water equivalent per year and −0.02 m water equivalent per year with an average of −0.20 m water equivalent per year as estimated by the geodetic method. The equilibrium line altitude changes since the Late Pleistocene to the present vary from 810 ± 145 m to 1060 ± 145 m with an average of 722 ± 145 m. The increasing trend of temperature and shifting precipitation seasons have resulted in enhanced glacier recession and the formation of numerous glacial lakes in the basin. In addition to the climatic variables and glacier size, the topographic parameters slope, and elevation are observed to be the dominant factors influencing glacier recession and mass changes in the basin.

Mass changes of glaciers in eastern Pamir using remote sensing and GIS

Mass changes of glaciers in eastern Pamir using remote sensing and GIS

Mass balances of Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers, Nepal, from 2000 to 2017

Abstract. The glacier mass balance is an important variable to describe the climate system and is used for various applications like water resource management or runoff modelling. The direct or glaciological method and the geodetic method are the standard methods to quantify glacier mass changes, and both methods are an integral part of international glacier monitoring strategies. In 2011, we established two glacier mass-balance programmes on Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers in the Nepal Himalaya. Here we present the methods and data of the directly measured annual mass balances for the first six mass-balance years for both glaciers from 2011/2012 to 2016/2017. For Yala Glacier we additionally present the directly measured seasonal mass balance from 2011 to 2017, as well as the mass balance from 2000 to 2012 obtained with the geodetic method. In addition, we analysed glacier length changes for both glaciers. The directly measured average annual mass-balance rates of Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers are −0.80 ± 0.28 and −0.39 ± 0.32 m w.e. a−1, respectively, from 2011 to 2017. The geodetically measured annual mass-balance rate of Yala Glacier based on digital elevation models from 2000 and 2012 is −0.74 ± 0.53 m w.e. The cumulative mass loss for the period 2011 to 2017 for Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers is −4.80 ± 0.69 and −2.34 ± 0.79 m w.e., respectively. The mass loss on Yala Glacier from 2000 to 2012 is −8.92 ± 6.33 m w.e. The winter balance of Yala Glacier is positive, and the summer balance is negative in every investigated year. The summer balance determines the annual balance. Compared to regional mean geodetic mass-balance rates in the Nepalese Himalaya, the mean mass-balance rate of Rikha Samba Glacier is in a similar range, and the mean mass-balance rate of Yala Glacier is more negative because of the small and low-lying accumulation area. During the study period, a change of Yala Glacier's surface topography has been observed with glacier thinning and downwasting. The retreat rates of Rikha Samba Glacier are higher than for Yala Glacier. From 1989 to 2013, Rikha Samba Glacier retreated 431 m (−18.0 m a−1), and from 1974 to 2016 Yala Glacier retreated 346 m (−8.2 m a−1). The data of the annual and seasonal mass balances, point mass balance, geodetic mass balance, and length changes are accessible from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS, 2021), https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2021-05.

Dwindling Relevance of Large Volcanic Eruptions for Global Glacier Changes in the Anthropocene

AbstractLarge volcanic eruptions impact climate through the injection of ash and sulfur‐containing gases into the atmosphere. While the ash particles fall out rapidly, the gases are converted to sulfate aerosols that reflect solar radiation in the stratosphere and cause a lowering of the global mean surface temperature. Earlier studies have suggested that major volcanic eruptions resulted in positive mass balances and advances of glaciers. Here, we perform a multivariate analysis to decompose global glacier mass changes from 1961 to 2005 into components associated with anthropogenic influences, volcanic and solar activities, and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation. We find that the global glacier mass loss was mainly driven by the anthropogenic forcing, interrupted by a few years of intermittent mass gains following large volcanic eruptions. The relative impact of volcanic eruptions has dwindled due to strongly increasing greenhouse gas concentrations since the mid‐20th century.

Twentieth century global glacier mass change: an ensemble-based model reconstruction

Abstract. Negative glacier mass balances in most of Earth's glacierized regions contribute roughly one-quarter to currently observed rates of sea-level rise and have likely contributed an even larger fraction during the 20th century. The distant past and future of glaciers' mass balances, and hence their contribution to sea-level rise, can only be estimated using numerical models. Since, independent of complexity, models always rely on some form of parameterizations and a choice of boundary conditions, a need for optimization arises. In this work, a model for computing monthly mass balances of glaciers on the global scale was forced with nine different data sets of near-surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies, as well as with their mean and median, leading to a total of 11 different forcing data sets. The goal is to better constrain the glaciers' 20th century sea-level budget contribution and its uncertainty. Therefore, five global parameters of the model's mass balance equations were varied systematically, within physically plausible ranges, for each forcing data set. We then identified optimal parameter combinations by cross-validating the model results against in situ annual specific mass balance observations, using three criteria: model bias, temporal correlation, and the ratio between the observed and modeled temporal standard deviation of specific mass balances. These criteria were chosen in order not to trade lower error estimates by means of the root mean squared error (RMSE) for an unrealistic interannual variability. We find that the disagreement between the different optimized model setups (i.e., ensemble members) is often larger than the uncertainties obtained via the leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation, particularly in times and places where few or no validation data are available, such as the first half of the 20th century. We show that the reason for this is that in regions where mass balance observations are abundant, the meteorological data are also better constrained, such that the cross-validation procedure only partly captures the uncertainty of the glacier model. For this reason, ensemble spread is introduced as an additional estimate of reconstruction uncertainty, increasing the total uncertainty compared to the model uncertainty merely obtained by the cross-validation. Our ensemble mean estimate indicates a sea-level contribution by global glaciers (outside of the ice sheets; including the Greenland periphery but excluding the Antarctic periphery) for 1901–2018 of 69.2 ± 24.3 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), or 0.59 ± 0.21 mm SLE yr−1. While our estimates lie within the uncertainty range of most of the previously published global estimates, they agree less with those derived from GRACE data, which only cover the years 2002–2018.

An application of three different field methods to monitor changes in Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Chinese Tien Shan, during 2012–18

AbstractThis study deploys RTK-GNSS in 2012, TLS in 2015 and UAV in 2018 to monitor the changes of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1), eastern Tien Shan, and analyzes the feasibility of three technologies in monitoring the mountain glaciers. DEM differencing shows that UG1 has experienced a pronounced thinning and mass loss for the period of 2012–18. The glacier surface elevation change of −0.83 ± 0.57 m w.e. a−1 has been recorded for 2012–15, whereas the changes of glacier tongue surface elevation in 2015–18 and 2012–18 were −2.03 ± 0.95 and −1.34 ± 0.88 m w.e. a−1, respectively. The glacier area shrunk by 0.07 ± 0.07 × 10−3 km2 and the terminus retreat rate was 6.28 ± 0.83 m a−1 during 2012–18. The good agreement between the glaciological and geodetic specific mass-balances is promising, showing the combination of the three technologies is suitable to monitor glacier mass change. We recommend application of the three technologies to assess each other in different locations of the glacier, e.g. RTK-GNSS base stations, ground control points, glacier tongue and terminus, in order to avoid the inherent limitations of each technology and to provide reliable data for the future studies of mountain glacier changes in western China.

Evolution of Surface Characteristics of Three Debris-Covered Glaciers in the Patagonian Andes From 1958 to 2020

A number of glaciological observations on debris-covered glaciers around the globe have shown a delayed length and mass adjustment in relation to climate variability, a behavior normally attributed to the ice insulation effect of thick debris layers. Dynamic interactions between debris cover, geometry and surface topography of debris-covered glaciers can nevertheless govern glacier velocities and mass changes over time, with many glaciers exhibiting high thinning rates in spite of thick debris cover. Such interactions are progressively being incorporated into glacier evolution research. In this paper we reconstruct changes in debris-covered area, surface velocities and surface features of three glaciers in the Patagonian Andes over the 1958–2020 period, based on satellite and aerial imagery and Digital Elevation Models. Our results show that debris cover has increased from 40 ± 0.6 to 50 ± 6.7% of the total glacier area since 1958, whilst glacier slope has slightly decreased. The gently sloping tongues have allowed surface flow velocities to remain relatively low (&amp;lt;60 m a−1) for the last two decades, preventing evacuation of surface debris, and contributing to the formation and rise of the ice cliff zone upper boundary. In addition, mapping of end of summer snowline altitudes for the last two decades suggests an increase in the Equilibrium Line Altitudes, which promotes earlier melt out of englacial debris and further increases debris-covered ice area. The strongly negative mass budget of the three investigated glaciers throughout the study period, together with the increases in debris cover extent and ice cliff zones up-glacier, and the low velocities, shows a strong linkage between debris cover, mass balance evolution, surface velocities and topography. Interestingly, the presence of thicker debris layers on the lowermost portions of the glaciers has not lowered thinning rates in these ice areas, indicating that the mass budget is mainly driven by climate variability and calving processes, to which the influence of enhanced thinning at ice cliff location can be added.

Influence of atmospheric circulation on glacier mass balance in western Tibet: an analysis based on observations and modeling

AbstractGlacier changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been spatially heterogeneous in recent decades. The understanding of glacier mass changes in western Tibet, a transitional area between the monsoon-dominated region and the westerlies-dominated region, is still incomplete. For this study, we used an energy-mass balance model to reconstruct annual mass balances from October 1967 to September 2019 to explore the effects of local climate and large-scale atmospheric circulation on glacier mass changes in western Tibet. The results showed Xiao Anglong Glacier is close to a balanced condition, with an average value of -53±185 mm w.e. a-1 for 1968-2019. The interannual mass balance variability during 1968-2019 was primary driven by ablation-season precipitation, which determined changes in the snow accumulation and strongly influenced melt processes. The interannual mass balance variability during 1968-2019 was less affected by ablation-season air temperature, which only weakly affected snowfall and melt energy. Further analysis suggests that the southward (or northward) shift of the westerlies caused low (or high) ablation-season precipitation, and therefore low (or high) annual mass balance for glaciers in western Tibet. In addition, the average mass balance for Xiao Anglong Glacier was 83±185, -210±185, and -10±185 mm w.e. a-1 for 1968-1990, 1991-2012, and 2013-2019, respectively. These mass changes were associated with the variations in precipitation and air temperature during the ablation season on interdecadal time scales.

Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century.

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking rapidly, altering regional hydrology1, raising global sea level2 and elevating natural hazards3. Yet, owing to the scarcity of constrained mass loss observations, glacier evolution during the satellite era is known only partially, as a geographic and temporal patchwork4,5. Here we reveal the accelerated, albeit contrasting, patterns of glacier mass loss during the early twenty-first century. Using largely untapped satellite archives, we chart surface elevation changes at a high spatiotemporal resolution over all of Earth's glaciers. We extensively validate our estimates against independent, high-precision measurements and present a globally complete and consistent estimate of glacier mass change. We show that during 2000-2019, glaciers lost a mass of 267±16 gigatonnes per year, equivalent to 21±3 per cent of the observed sea-level rise6. We identify a mass loss acceleration of 48±16 gigatonnes per year per decade, explaining 6 to 19 per cent of the observed acceleration of sea-level rise. Particularly, thinning rates of glaciers outside ice sheet peripheries doubled over the past two decades. Glaciers currently lose more mass, and at similar or larger acceleration rates, than the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets taken separately7-9. By uncovering the patterns of mass change in many regions, we find contrasting glacier fluctuations that agree with the decadal variability in precipitation and temperature. These include a North Atlantic anomaly of decelerated mass loss, a strongly accelerated loss from northwestern American glaciers, and the apparent end of the Karakoram anomaly of mass gain10. We anticipate our highly resolved estimates to advance the understanding of drivers that govern the distribution of glacier change, and to extend our capabilities of predicting these changes at all scales. Predictions robustly benchmarked against observations are critically needed to design adaptive policies for the local- and regional-scale management of water resources and cryospheric risks, as well as for the global-scale mitigation of sea-level rise.

Spatio-Temporal Changes of Mass Balance in the Ablation Area of the Muz Taw Glacier, Sawir Mountains, from Multi-Temporal Terrestrial Geodetic Surveys

The glaciers in the Sawir Mountains are an important freshwater resource, and glaciers have been experiencing a continuing retreat over the past few decades. However, studies on detailed glacier mass changes are currently sparse. Here, we present the high-precision evolution of annual surface elevation and geodetic mass changes in the ablation area of the Muz Taw Glacier (Sawir Mountains, China) over the latest three consecutive mass-balance years (2017–2020) based on multi-temporal terrestrial geodetic surveys. Our results revealed clearly surface lowering and negative geodetic mass changes, and the spatial changing patterns were generally similar for the three periods with the most negative surface lowering (approximately −5.0 to −4.0 m a−1) around the glacier terminus. The gradient of altitudinal elevation changes was commonly steep at the low elevations and gentle in the upper-elevation parts, and reduced surface lowering was observed at the glacier terminus. Resulting emergence velocities ranged from 0.11 to 0.86 m a−1 with pronounced spatial variability, which was mainly controlled by surface slope, ice thickness, and the movement of tributary glaciers. Meanwhile, emergence velocities slightly compensated the surface ablation at the ablation area with a proportion of 14.9%, and dynamic thickening had small contributions to glacier surface evolution. Limited annual precipitation and glacier accumulation may result in these weak contributions. Higher-resolution surveys at the seasonal and monthly scales are required to get insight into the mass balance processes and their mechanism.

Polar Drift in the 1990s Explained by Terrestrial Water Storage Changes

AbstractSecular polar drift underwent a directional change in the 1990s, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, polar motion observations are compared with geophysical excitations from the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, and terrestrial water storage (TWS) during the period of 1981–2020 to determine major drivers. When contributions from the atmosphere, oceans, and solid Earth are removed, the residual dominates the change in the 1990s. The contribution of TWS to the residual is quantified by comparing the hydrological excitations from modeled TWS changes in two different scenarios. One scenario assumes that the TWS change is stationary over the entire study period, and another scenario corrects the stationary result with actual glacier mass change. The accelerated ice melting over major glacial areas drives the polar drift toward 26°E for 3.28 mas/yr after the 1990s. The findings offer a clue for studying past climate‐driven polar motion.

Reconstruction of Past Glacier Changes with an Ice-Flow Glacier Model: Proof of Concept and Validation

Estimations of global glacier mass changes over the course of the 20th century require automated initialization methods, allowing the reconstruction of past glacier states from limited information. In a previous study, we developed a method to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) from past climate information and present-day geometry alone. Tested in an idealized framework, this method aimed to quantify how much information present-day glacier geometry carries about past glacier states. The method was not applied to real-world cases, and therefore, the results were not comparable with observations. This study closes the gap to real-world cases by introducing a glacier-specific calibration of the mass balance model. This procedure ensures that the modeled present-day geometry matches the observed area and that the past glacier evolution is consistent with bias-corrected past climate time series. We apply the method to 517 glaciers, spread globally, for which either mass balance observations or length records are available, and compare the observations to the modeled reconstructed glacier changes. For the validation of the initialization method, we use multiple measures of reconstruction skill (e.g., MBE, RMSE, and correlation). We find that the modeled mass balances and glacier lengths are in good agreement with the observations, especially for glaciers with many observation years. These results open the door to a future global application.

More than a century of direct glacier mass-balance observations on Claridenfirn, Switzerland

AbstractGlacier mass-balance observations at seasonal resolution have been performed since 1914 at two sites on Claridenfirn, Switzerland. The measurements are the longest uninterrupted records of glacier mass balance worldwide. Here, we provide a complete re-analysis of the 106-year series (1914–2020), focusing on both point and glacier-wide mass balance. The approaches to evaluate and homogenize the direct observations are described in detail. Based on conservative assumptions, average uncertainties of$\pm$0.25 m w.e. are estimated for glacier-wide mass balances at the annual scale. It is demonstrated that long-term variations in mass balance are clearly driven by melting, whereas decadal changes in accumulation are uncorrelated with mass balance and can only be relevant in short periods. Mass change of Claridenfirn is impacted by dry calving at a frontal ice cliff. Considerations of ice volume flux at a cross-profile reveal long-term variations in frontal ice loss accounting for$\sim$9% of total annual ablation on average. The effect of changes in frontal ablation mostly explains$\lt$10% of the mass-balance difference relative to the period 1960–1990, but accounts for$\sim$20% in 2010–2020. Glacier mass changes are discussed in the context of observations throughout the European Alps indicating that Claridenfirn is regionally representative.

Hydropower under climate uncertainty: Characterizing the usable capacity of Brazilian, Colombian and Peruvian power plants under climate scenarios

Hydropower may be a low-carbon option to increase power generation in developing countries, but these countries are some of the most vulnerable to climate change. Climate change can affect hydropower generation through changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation, rising temperatures, and glacier mass changes. Evaluating climate impacts on hydropower generally requires detailed local input data and hydrological models, which may not be available in many developing nations. Nevertheless, the need to understand the impacts is essential for the developing world. Here we present a modeling framework that relies on remotely sensed and global gridded datasets forced by an ensemble of 21 general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to evaluate climate-induced impacts on hydropower through the 21st century. We include 134 hydropower plants (>100 MW), representing 42% of hydropower installed capacity in South America, across five regions of Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Our results suggest the median monthly usable capacity would increase for Colombia (+2.6% to +8.4% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively) and Peru (+6.7% to +9.3% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively) by 2100 relative to the late 20th century. For Brazil, we observe a mix of reductions and increases in usable capacity. While our results suggest potential reductions for the dry season usable capacity in the Parana, Paraguay, and Southeast Atlantic regions of Brazil, we also observe slight increases in usable capacity during the rainy months for all its regions. These results can help inform future planning decisions and potential interconnections between the three countries. Additionally, the proposed framework can contribute to an increased capability to evaluate climate-induced risks to power systems in developing countries, where data and computation resources can be limited.