Marsh Elevation Research Articles

A Decade of Salt Marsh Elevation Change in New York City’s Coastal Urban Parks

A Decade of Salt Marsh Elevation Change in New York City’s Coastal Urban Parks

Large-Scale Levee Breach Experiments With Foreshores

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase substantially in the near future. Main drivers are climate induced sea level rise, increased storm surge and land subsidence. Meanwhile, land subsidence compounds to increased extreme water levels as more land is susceptible to flooding. Without coastal defense or adaptation 50% more people are exposed to flooding than present day (Kireczi et al., 2020). Coastal regions are currently primarily protected by hard (grey) flood defenses such as storm surge barriers, seawall, dikes and dunes. Periodically, strengthening of these grey structures is necessary to comply with current or updated safety standards. For dikes, conventional strengthening methods are crest heightening or (base) widening. However, these methods have structural and financial limits. Instead, more sustainable methods are explored in which nature also plays a larger role. These solutions are known as Nature based Solutions (NbS). For flood protection, tidal marshes have gained great interest as a Nature based Solution in the past two decades. Tidal marshes provide a lot of ecosystem services (Barbier et al., 2011). One such service is flood protection, attributed to wave attenuation (Vuik et al, 2016). A secondary effect is flood impact reduction (Zhu et al., 2020) due to the high elevation of tidal marshes limiting the inflow to the breach. Secondly, the tidal marsh can act as a sill in front of the breach when water levels drop below the tidal marsh level. To quantify the effect of tidal marshes on flood impact the breaching process in combination with a tidal marsh (or foreshore in general) needs to be understood. In this study we performed a large-scale physical dike experiment where we breached a dike seven times. Three tests are done without a sediment layer in front of the dike (no foreshore), two with a sandy layer (sandy beach) and two with a clay layer (tidal marsh without vegetation). From the experiments we gain insight into differences in the dike breaching process with and without an erodible sediment layer in front of the dike

Elevation Changes in Restored Marshes at Poplar Island, Chesapeake Bay, MD: II. Modeling the Importance of Marsh Development Time

Tidal marshes in the Chesapeake Bay are vulnerable to the accelerating rate of sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. Restored and created marshes face the same risks as natural marshes, and their resilience to SLR may depend upon appropriate design and implementation. Here, the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) was used to assess the resilience of tidal marshes at the Paul S. Sarbanes Ecosystem Restoration Project at Poplar Island (PI) in mid-Chesapeake Bay, MD, where dredged material from navigation channels is being used to create new tidal marshes planted with Spartina alterniflora in the low marsh and S. patens in the high marsh. The site is microtidal with low inorganic sediment inputs, where the rate of marsh elevation change is dominated by the production of organic matter and, therefore, is proportional to net ecosystem production (NEP). The model demonstrated the importance of marsh development for surface elevation gain. In created marshes, the buildout of belowground biomass adds volume and results in faster growth of marsh elevation, but the gains slow as the marsh matures. Elevation gain is the lessor of the recalcitrant fraction of NEP sequestered in sediment or the rate of increase in accommodation space. Marshes can keep up with and fill accommodation space with sequestered NEP up to a tipping point determined by the rate of SLR. The PI low marsh platform was forecasted to drown in about 43 years after construction at the current rate of SLR. Marsh loss can be mitigated by periodic thin layer placement (TLP) of sediment. CWEM was used to simulate PI marsh responses to different TLP strategies and showed that there is an optimal design that will maximize carbon sequestration and resilience depending on the trajectory of mean sea level.

Responses of Coastal Wetlands to Rising Sea-Level Revisited: The Importance of Organic Production

A network of 15 Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) at North Inlet estuary, South Carolina, has been monitored on annual or monthly time scales beginning from 1990 to 1996 and continuing through 2022. Of 73 time series in control plots, 12 had elevation gains equal to or exceeding the local rate of sea-level rise (SLR, 0.34 cm/year). Rising marsh elevation in North Inlet is dominated by organic production and, we hypothesize, is proportional to net ecosystem production. The rate of elevation gain was 0.47 cm/year in plots experimentally fertilized for 10 years with N&P compared to nearby control plots that have gained 0.1 cm/year in 26 years. The excess gains and losses of elevation in fertilized plots were accounted for by changes in belowground biomass and turnover. This is supported by bioassay experiments in marsh organs where at age 2 the belowground biomass of fertilized S. alterniflora plants was increasing by 1,994 g m−2 year−1, which added a growth premium of 2.4 cm/year to elevation gain. This was contrasted with the net belowground growth of 746 g m−2 year−1 in controls, which can add 0.89 cm/year to elevation. Root biomass density was greater in the fertilized bioassay treatments than in controls, plateauing at about 1,374 g m−2 and 472 g m−2, respectively. Growth of belowground biomass was dominated by rhizomes, which grew to 3,648 g m−2 in the fertilized treatments after 3 years and 1,439 g m−2 in the control treatments after 5 years. Depositional wetlands are limited by an exogenous supply of mineral sediment, whereas marshes like North Inlet could be classified as autonomous because they depend on in situ organic production to maintain elevation. Autonomous wetlands are more vulnerable to SLR because their elevation gains are constrained ultimately by photosynthetic efficiency.

Ecosystem functions of plant diversity: Comparisons from a large‐scale marsh restoration experiment in California, USA

AbstractAlthough the promotion of biodiversity has been recognized as an important conservation goal, salt marsh restoration typically focuses on reestablishing dominant foundation species. Salt marsh restoration projects that add or remove sediment to optimize marsh elevation often result in a bare landscape following construction. Restoration managers must decide whether to plant and, if so, which species. This decision can be difficult because few studies have examined the ecological functions of individual species, especially those that are less abundant. Within a major salt marsh restoration project in Elkhorn Slough, California, where 17,000 plants of five high marsh species were planted, we investigated how rarer species and the naturally recruiting dominant (Salicornia pacifica) differ in ecosystem function. We evaluated 31 different metrics related to blue carbon, plant productivity, environmental effects, and community interactions. No single species had the greatest ecological function across this suite of metrics, and measured effects were mainly independent, with only 16 of 435 pairwise comparisons revealing a strong correlation. We found significant differences among species for 18 metrics, revealing key contrasts in ecosystem function, with significant effects of marsh elevation and interaction between effects of species and elevation on some of these functions. S. pacifica scored highest for metrics such as recruitment and canopy height but other species outperformed Salicornia in other metrics. Frankenia salina had the greatest ecological function in the highest number of metrics, including cover and belowground biomass carbon content, but other species had higher rates of photosynthesis and harbored fewer individuals of invasive arthropods. We recommend planting a suite of less common species at restoration sites to provide more diverse functions across the landscape. F. salina in particular is recommended for its tolerance of hypersalinity and low moisture conditions. Our demonstration of the value of complementing restoration of the dominant foundation species with restoration of less common species is applicable to restoration of other ecosystems beyond salt marshes. The approach we implemented, evaluating a large suite of functions for multiple species across a restored landscape, can serve as a model for investigations of the importance of biodiversity for enhancing multifunctionality in other restored ecosystems.

Understanding Marsh Elevation and Accretion Processes and Vulnerability to Rising Sea Levels Across Climatic and Geomorphic Gradients in California, USA

Understanding Marsh Elevation and Accretion Processes and Vulnerability to Rising Sea Levels Across Climatic and Geomorphic Gradients in California, USA

Increasing Salt Marsh Elevation Using Sediment Augmentation: Critical Insights from Surface Sediments and Sediment Cores

Sea-level rise is particularly concerning for tidal wetlands that reside within an area with steep topography or are constrained by human development and alteration of sedimentation. Sediment augmentation to increase wetland elevations has been considered as a potential strategy for such areas to prevent wetland loss over the coming decades. However, there is little information on the best approaches and whether adaptive management actions can mimic natural processes to build sea-level rise resilience. In addition, the lack of information on long-term marsh characteristics, processes, and variability can hamper development of effective augmentation strategies. Here, we assess a case study in a southern California marsh to determine the nature of the pre-existing sediments and variability of the site in relation to sediments applied during an augmentation experiment. Although sediment cores revealed natural variations in the grain size and organic content of sediments deposited at the site over the past 1500 years, the applied sediments were markedly coarser in grain size than prehistoric sediments at the site (100% maximum sand versus 76% maximum sand). The rate of the experimental sediment application (25.1 ± 1.09 cm in ~2 months) was also much more rapid than natural accretion rates measured for the site historically. In contrast, post-augmentation sediment accretion rates on the augmentation site have been markedly slower than pre-augmentation rates or current rates on a nearby control site. The mismatch between the characteristics of the applied sediment and thickness of application and the historic conditions are likely strong contributors to the slow initial recovery of vegetation. Sediment augmentation has been shown to be a useful strategy in some marshes, but this case study illustrates that vegetation recovery may be slow if applied sediments are not similar or at a thickness similar to historic conditions. However, testing adaptation strategies to build wetland elevations is important given the long-term risk of habitat loss with sea-level rise. Lessons learned in the case study could be applied elsewhere.

Design and Assessment of a Novel Approach for Ecosystem Warming Experiments in High‐Energy Tidal Wetlands

AbstractCoastal salt marshes have an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Direct and indirect responses to warming are expected to vary along the marsh elevation gradient, making ecosystem responses to warming at this marine‐terrestrial ecotone uncertain. The Marsh Ecosystem Response to Increased Temperatures (MERIT) experiment was established in 2018 on the North Sea coast of Germany. Experimental plots are evenly distributed over three elevational marsh zones (pioneer, low marsh, and high marsh) and include three temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5°C, +3.0°C). MERIT's novel design combines active warming (horizontal surface warming cables and vertical soil warming pins) with passive, partially covered domes. For performance assessment, temperature deltas between ambient and warmed plots were calculated and evaluated at seasonal, daily, and diurnal timescales. We used Linear Mixed Models with Residual Maximum Likelihood for evaluating warming treatment effects and constraining environmental factors. MERIT was effective at ecosystem warming in this high‐energy environment both above‐ and belowground. Mixed models show that warming treatment dominates temperature differences belowground and at the soil surface, along with factors such as wind speed, flooding duration, and solar radiation. Aboveground warming was lower than belowground warming, but the dome design minimized issues seen in other open‐top chamber experiments. The combination of passive aboveground warming with feedback‐controlled active surface and belowground heating provides a setup for understanding warming effects on tidal ecosystems without altering the natural impacts of wind, radiation, and tidal inundations at high‐energy coastlines. Our design creates opportunities to expand future warming experiments to remote locations and technically challenging environments.

Twenty-Year Record of Salt Marsh Elevation Dynamics in Response to Sea-Level Rise and Storm-Driven Barrier Island Geomorphic Processes: Fire Island, NY, USA

Twenty-Year Record of Salt Marsh Elevation Dynamics in Response to Sea-Level Rise and Storm-Driven Barrier Island Geomorphic Processes: Fire Island, NY, USA

Will They Stay or Will They Go — Understanding South Atlantic Coastal Wetland Transformation in Response to Sea-Level Rise

Threats to coastal wetlands, including sea-level rise and subsidence, led the National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) System to protect over 500,000 hectares of coastal wetlands during the twentieth century, with approximately 20% occurring in the South Atlantic geography. This effort has involved systematic long-term monitoring of changes in marsh elevation using surface elevation tables and marker horizons at 20 sites across 19 NWRs in the southeastern coastal USA. From 2012 to 2021, the rates of change in surface elevation (−9.3 to 7.1 mm/year), accretion (−0.3 to 17.5 mm/year), and net vertical elevation change (−14.3 to 3.1 mm/year) were highly variable among monitoring sites and varied with coastal wetland type (oligohaline marsh, salt marsh, pocosin, or forested wetland), land surface elevation, and estuarine salinity and geomorphology (i.e., tidally influenced or embayed). Of 20 sites included in our study, only six were gaining elevation at a rate that was equal to or greater than the long-term rates of sea-level rise and therefore considered resilient. Only Waccamaw and Currituck NWRs, both located in oligohaline marshes, were gaining elevation at a rate that exceeded sea-level rise by 1 mm/year. These results support the mounting evidence that many coastal wetlands, particularly in the South Atlantic geography of the USA, will undergo ecological transformations in the next several decades. The NWR System and other coastal management entities will need to use strategic decision-making frameworks to identify management actions that can mitigate the loss of coastal wetlands to support the conservation of coastal wetland–dependent and obligate species.

Long‐Term Monitoring of Coupled Vegetation and Elevation Changes in Response to Sea Level Rise in a Microtidal Salt Marsh

AbstractTight interplays between physical and biotic processes in tidal salt marshes lead to self‐organization of halophytic vegetation into recurrent zonation patterns developed across elevation gradients. Despite its importance for marsh ecomorphodynamics, however, the response of vegetation zonation to changing environmental forcings remains difficult to predict, mostly because of lacking long‐term field observations of vegetation evolution in the face of changing rates of sea level rise and marsh vertical accretion. Here we present novel data of coupled marsh elevation‐vegetation distribution collected in the microtidal Venice Lagoon (Italy) over nearly two decades. Our results suggest that: (a) despite increasing absolute marsh elevations (i.e., above a fixed datum), vertical accretion rates across most of the studied marsh were not high enough to compensate for relative sea‐level rise (RSLR), thus leading to a progressive marsh drowning; (b) accretion rates ranging 1.7–4.3 mm/year are overall lower than the measured RSLR rate (4.4 mm/year) and strongly site‐specific. Accretion rates vary largely at sites within distances of a few tens of meters, being controlled by local elevation and sediment availability from eroding marsh edges; (c) vegetation responds species‐specifically to changes in environmental forcings by modifying species‐preferential elevation ranges. For the first time, we observe the consistency of a sequential vegetation‐species zonation with increasing marsh elevations over 20 years. We suggest this is the signature of vegetation resilience to changes in external forcings. Our results highlight a strong coupling between geomorphological and ecological dynamics and call for spatially distributed marsh monitoring and spatially explicit biomorphodynamic models of marsh evolution.

Estimating mussel mound distribution and geometric properties in coastal salt marshes by using UAV-Lidar point clouds

The Atlantic ribbed mussel (Geukensia demissa) is common in southeastern US salt marshes, where they form dense aggregations (mounds), that occur in the highest densities and sizes on the marsh platform close to the tidal creeks' heads. Within these marshes, mussels help build marsh elevation via their biodeposition of organic and inorganic material, stimulate the growth of the dominant foundation species cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora), and create hotspots of invertebrate biodiversity, nutrient cycling, and drought resilience. Given their powerful role, there is rising interest in assessing natural variation in the distribution of mussel mounds and using such information to guide marsh conservation and restoration strategies. However, gathering such information is challenging, because the small dimension (∼1 m) of the mounds and the presence of overlying vegetation make it difficult to quantify mound distribution on the marsh. Therefore, this study presents a new procedure to compute the distribution, height, radius, volume, and distance of mounds in marsh environments using remote sensing. A high-resolution UAV-Lidar point cloud has been collected over a highly vegetated salt marsh in Georgia, USA, using a custom-built laser scanner system. An original detection algorithm, based on a Random Forest classifier, has been implemented to identify the mounds from the point cloud. The algorithm has been trained and tested on surveyed mounds and provides their location and geometric properties. Results indicate that the classifier can distinguish mussel mounds from non-mussel mound locations with an accuracy of 95 %. The classifier identified ∼8000 mounds, which occupy 10 % of the study domain, and a volume (shells+feces/pseudofeces) of 680 m3. The method is highly useful in efforts to monitor mussel mounds over time and scale up to assess mounds across sites, providing invaluable data for future studies related to the geomorphic evolution of marshes to sea level rise and siting marsh conservation and enhancement projects.

Multi-temporal high-resolution marsh vegetation mapping using unoccupied aircraft system remote sensing and machine learning

Coastal wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world and provide important ecosystem services related to improved water quality, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity. In many locations, wetlands are threatened by coastal development and rising sea levels, prompting an era of tidal wetland restoration. The creation and restoration of tidal marshes necessitate the need for ecosystem monitoring. While satellite remote sensing is a valuable monitoring tool; the spatial and temporal resolution of imagery often places operational constraints, especially in small or spatially complex environments. Unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS) are an emerging remote sensing platform that collects data with flexible on-demand capabilities at much greater spatial resolution than sensors on aircraft and satellites, and resultant imagery can be readily rendered in three dimensions through Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetric processing. In this study, UAS data at 5 cm resolution was collected at an engineered wetland at Poplar Island, located in Chesapeake Bay, MD United States five times throughout 2019 to 2022. The wetland is dominated by two vegetation species: Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens that were originally planted in 2005 in low and high marsh elevation zones respectively. During each survey, UAS multispectral reflectance, canopy elevation, and texture were derived and used as input into supervised random forest classification models to classify species-specific marsh vegetation. Overall accuracy ranged from 97% to 99%, with texture and canopy elevation variables being the most important across all datasets. Random forest classifications were also applied to down-sampled UAS data which resulted in a decline in classification accuracy as spatial resolution decreased (pixels became larger), indicating the benefit of using ultra-high resolution imagery to accurately and precisely distinguish between wetland vegetation. High resolution vegetation classification maps were compared to the 2005 as-built planting plans, demonstrating significant changes in vegetation and potential instances of marsh migration. The amount of vegetation change in the high marsh zone positively correlated with interannual variations in local sea level, suggesting a feedback between vegetation and tidal inundation. This study demonstrates that UAS remote sensing has great potential to assist in large-scale estimates of vegetation changes and can improve restoration monitoring success.

Aboveground wetland vegetation growth responses to simulated sediment diversion inundation scenarios

Coastal Louisiana is experiencing extremely high rates of wetland loss, particularly within the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain. Although multiple stressors contribute to this loss, one major driver is decreased wetland elevation stemming from disconnection of recurrent sediment rich influxes of Mississippi River floodwater. The decrease in sediment delivery, in conjunction with natural subsidence processes, reduce marsh elevations and increase flooding stress on vegetation, leading to marsh collapse. River sediment diversions are large-scale restoration techniques intended to rehabilitate Louisiana's degraded coastal wetlands by mimicking historic crevasse splays, thereby stimulating land building and vegetation growth. However, such large-scale restoration techniques require an appropriate knowledge base of vegetation and soil biogeochemical responses to altered environmental conditions. In this research, monospecific sods of three foundational marsh species (Spartina patens, Spartina alterniflora, Typha latifolia) were exposed to inundation depth (20 and 40 cm), duration (8 and 16 weeks), and salinity (0 and 5 psu) treatments consistent with a range of anticipated sediment diversion scenarios in a mesocosm setting. Additionally, sods were monitored through week 20 after being removed from their experimental conditions. Both Spartina alterniflora and Typha latifolia displayed relatively consistent increases in stem densities over time across inundation depth-duration treatments, whereas Spartina patens displayed a sharp decline in stem densities at 40 cm flooding depths. Additionally, both Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens had the least observed amount of total aboveground biomass at 40 cm flooding depths. Spartina patens sods displayed a significant loss in surface elevation with increased flooding stress through study week 20, whereas Typha latifolia demonstrated a significant gain in surface elevation. These results suggest that restoration projects increasing inundation within the limits of the depths employed herein and the anticipated duration of river diversion induced inundation are unlikely to negatively impact the aboveground growth responses of Spartina alterniflora and Typha latifolia, but could reduce stem densities and aboveground biomass of Spartina patens.

Hazardous and contaminated sites within salt marsh migration corridors in Rhode Island, USA

As salt marshes attempt to migrate upland due to sea level rise, they will encounter many kinds of land development and infrastructure in highly populated, urbanized coastal communities. Hazardous and contaminated sites (HCSs) -- facilities and infrastructure that store, use, or release harmful substances -- are particularly concerning obstacles to salt marsh migration because of their potential to release contaminants if their structural integrity is compromised. Inventorying HCSs within migration pathways can inform coastal resilience planning. To understand what kinds of HCSs migrating marsh may encounter in Rhode Island, USA, we inventoried sites from federal and state sources, assigned contaminant hazard rankings to most sites, and overlayed them with projected marsh migration corridors. We found that HCSs are extensive across marsh migration corridors in the state, especially in urban areas. Among the most common HCSs in and around Rhode Island salt marshes are stormwater outfalls, underground storage tanks, and facilities registered with EPA's Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) or EPA's National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES). These sites pose varying hazards to human and aquatic life if breached, with some sites representing little or no threat but most posing some degree of hazard to their surroundings. This coastal HCSs inventory can inform prioritization and management of coastal salt marshes subject to accelerated sea level rise. Management decisions such as allowing marsh migration, implementing adaptation actions to build salt marsh elevation, or erecting physical barriers at marsh sites will influence future salt marsh extent, marshes' ability to provide ecosystem services, and public health exposures to toxic releases. In addition, as Rhode Island and other coastal states work to promote coastal resiliency, this type of inventory can inform decisions about which HCSs to prioritize for remediation and other climate adaptation actions. Marsh migration is just one potential consequence of sea level rise, so many of the considerations outlined here are widely applicable to the broader goal of preparing coastal communities for rising seas.

Surface water-groundwater interaction affects soil temperature distributions and variations in salt marshes

Soil temperature is an important environmental factor affecting biogeochemical processes in salt marshes and further wetland ecological functions. This study conducted field investigation and numerical simulations to examine temperature distributions and variations in a creek-marsh section subjected to estuarine and meteorological forcing conditions. The results showed that periodic tidal inundation induced water and heat exchange across sediment-water interfaces and thus modified diurnal temperature variations in shallow soil layers caused by meteorological fluctuations. The combination of periodic tidal inundation and sediment-atmosphere heat exchange led to the formation of three characteristic soil temperature zones along the creek-marsh section: a high-elevation marsh zone with diurnal temperature variations influenced by meteorological fluctuations, a near-creek zone where tide-induced porewater circulations regulated soil temperatures, and a low-elevation and sloping zone where sediment-atmosphere heat exchange decreased with the reduced marsh elevation. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that a larger hydraulic conductivity facilitated the porewater circulation and heat transport in the near-creek zone, enhancing temperature fluctuations. An increased soil thermal conductivity intensified vertical heat exchange across sediment-water-atmosphere interfaces and increased the effect of estuarine and meteorological conditions on soil temperature. This study highlights the importance of surface water-groundwater interaction on temperature variations and helps to understand thermodynamics-dependent biogeochemical processes in salt marshes.

Seed Viability, Spikelet Dispersal, Seed Banks and Seed Storage Requirements for Native and Invasive Cordgrasses (Genus Spartina) in Southwest Iberian Peninsula

Seed banks play an important role in determining the spatial and temporal distribution of halophytes in salt marshes. We tested the ability of native Spartina maritima and invasive S. densiflora spikelets to disperse by flotation on water with different salinity concentrations, and the longevity of spikelet viability relative to environmental conditions including dry or wet storage at low or moderate temperatures, and aqueous salinity concentrations from fresh to sea water. We quantified pre-dispersal seed production and pre- and post-dispersal focal Spartina spp. presence in seed banks along intertidal gradients within salt marshes at the Gulf of Cádiz (Southwest Iberian Peninsula). Spartina densiflora spikelets, especially from middle and high elevation marshes, showed greater ability than S. maritima to remain afloat, which suggests this species could be dispersed over longer distances. Wet-stored Spartina seeds were able to maintain viability for months, while seeds under dry storage rapidly lost viability. This decline was most significant for S. maritima, and for seeds stored at moderate temperatures. Storage of spikelets under wet and cold conditions optimized spikelet viability. Native S. maritima did not establish transient or persistent seed banks, while invasive S. densiflora established transient seed banks mainly at higher marsh elevations. Our results on the dynamics of seed dispersal and seed banks and seedling recruitment provide fundamental knowledge that can be applied for conservation of native S. maritima, management of invasive S. densiflora, and ecological restoration of tidal salt marshes.

Increasing tidal inundation corresponds to rising porewater nutrient concentrations in a southeastern U.S. salt marsh.

Salt marshes are ecologically and economically important features of coastal environments that are vulnerable to sea level rise, the rate of which has accelerated in recent decades along the southeastern US Atlantic coast. Increased flooding frequency and duration across the marsh platform is predicted to impact vegetation community structure and overall marsh persistence, but the effect of changing inundation patterns on biogeochemical processes in marsh sediments remains largely unexplored. As part of a long-term monitoring effort to assess how marshes are responding to sea level rise in North Inlet estuary (South Carolina, USA), we collected data on porewater nutrient concentrations from a series of permanent monitoring plots across multiple transects spanning the marsh elevation gradient during the growing season from 2009 to 2019. Additionally, we calculated time inundated for each plot using local water level data and high-resolution elevation measurements to assess the change in time flooded at each plot. Our results indicate that both NH4 and PO4 nutrient concentrations have increased in most permanent plots over the 11-year study period and that nutrient concentrations are higher with increasing proximity to the creek. Spatial patterns in nutrient increases through time are coincident with considerable increases in tidal inundation observed over the marsh platform. Across plots located in the low marsh, porewater NH4 and PO4 concentrations have risen at average rates of 8.96 μM/year and 0.86 μM/year, respectively, and have reached rates as high as 27.25 μM/year and 3.13 μM/year. We suggest that increased inundation time due to rising sea level has altered biogeochemical conditions influencing nutrient availability in marsh porewater, resulting in increases that likely have relevance for larger scale nutrient cycles as well as marsh ecosystem stability and function.

An assessment of future tidal marsh resilience in the San Francisco Estuary through modeling and quantifiable metrics of sustainability

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement (R2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI (R2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.

High nutrient loads amplify carbon cycling across California and New York coastal wetlands but with ambiguous effects on marsh integrity and sustainability.

Eutrophic conditions in estuaries are a globally important stressor to coastal ecosystems and have been suggested as a driver of coastal salt marsh loss. Potential mechanisms in marshes include disturbance caused by macroalgae accumulations, enhanced soil sulfide levels linked to high labile carbon inputs, accelerated decomposition, and declines in belowground biomass that contribute to edge instability, erosion, and slumping. However, results of fertilization studies have been mixed, and it is unclear the extent to which local environmental conditions, such as soil composition and nutrient profiles, help shape the response of salt marshes to nutrient exposure. In this study, we characterized belowground productivity and decomposition, organic matter mineralization rates, soil respiration, microbial biomass, soil humification, carbon and nitrogen inventories, nitrogen isotope ratios, and porewater profiles at high and low marsh elevations across eight marshes in four estuaries in California and New York that have strong contrasts in nutrient inputs. The higher nutrient load marshes were characterized by faster carbon turnover, with higher belowground production and decomposition and greater carbon dioxide efflux than lower nutrient load marshes. These patterns were robust across marshes of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts that varied in plant species composition, soil flooding patterns, and soil texture. Although impacts of eutrophic conditions on carbon cycling appeared clear, it was ambiguous whether high nutrient loads are causing negative effects on long-term marsh sustainability in terms of studied metrics. While high nutrient exposure marshes had high rates of decomposition and soil respiration rates, high nutrient exposure was also associated with increased belowground production, and reduced levels of sulfides, which should lead to greater marsh sustainability. While this study does not resolve the extent to which nutrient loads are negatively affecting these salt marshes, we do highlight functional differences between Atlantic and Pacific wetlands which may be useful for understanding coastal marsh health and integrity.