Probability Of Marriage Research Articles

Fertility Transitions in Ghana and Kenya: Trends, Determinants, and Implications for Policy and Programs

As a continent with 54 independent states Africa’s diversity is often highlighted but frequently forgotten when fertility is discussed. Fifty and more years ago to consider that all African countries and societies had a single fertility pattern (large numbers of children) and single trend (unchanging over time) was a valid characterization. Since the 1960s however that uniformity has disappeared replaced by substantial inter- and intra-country differences in fertility patterns and trends that render previous perceptions of continent-wide homogeneity obsolete. In this chapter we consider two African countries—Ghana and Kenya—whose fertility patterns and trends and their determinants have been well documented (Bongaarts 2008; Garenne 2008; Machiyama 2010; Shapiro and Gebreselassie 2008; Sneeringer 2009). Both countries have benefited from regularWorld Fertility Surveys (WFS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) that record trends in fertility family planning (FP) and other relevant indicators. The recently introduced Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 (PMA2020) surveys monitor progress since 2012 for the FP2020 initiative and occasional Situation Analysis and Service Provision Assessment surveys have also detailed the readiness of the health system in both countries to make quality FP services available. Ghana and Kenya share some common history: both have relatively strong health system legacies from the period of British colonialization; both were among the earliest countries to achieve independence; they were the first two African countries that developed policies to address population growth in the 1960s; and both have received substantial and sustained resources over several decades from many external donors and technical assistance organizations explicitly intended to increase the availability and quality of family planning services. However they are composed of cultures that are both diverse within each country and markedly different in many ways between the two countries. The two countries demonstrate remarkably different pathways in fertility and family planning patterns and trends from the 1970s to the present. We highlight some of the key differences and similarities explain why they have occurred and identify insights that could inform a wider understanding of fertility transitions and the role of family planning in other African countries. (excerpt)

Predicting the Probability of Divorce Occurrence by the Index of Family Function

This study is designed to analyze the predicting the probability of divorce in women through family function among married student from Azad Abhar University. This study is base on correlation and randomly sampled. The targeted population for this study were 200 voluntary participant of married female student. This study includes family functional survey, Mac Master (FAD), and the instability of marriage (Probability of divorce) survey that data collected from the surveys were analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient, and Multiple regression analysis. Findings from this study shows that there is a relation between family functions and probability of divorce.

The consequences of sibling formation on survival and reproductive success across different ecological contexts: a comparison of the historical Krummhörn and Quebec populations

This article investigates the relationship between additional siblings and the probability of offspring survival, marriage, and fertility across the historical populations of the St Lawrence Valley in Quebec (1670–1799) and the Krummhörn region in Germany (1720–1874). Both populations existed in agriculturally based economies, but differ in important ways. The Krummhörn population faced a fixed supply of land, which was concentrated amongst a small number of farmers. Most individuals were landless agricultural workers who formed a relatively competitive labor supply for the large farmers. In contrast, individuals in Quebec had access to a large supply of land, but with far fewer available agricultural workers, and had to rely on their family to develop and farm that land. Results indicate that more siblings of the same gender were generally associated with increases in mortality during infancy and childhood, later ages of first marriage, and fewer numbers of children ever born. For mortality and age at first marriage, the effects of sibling formation appear strongest in the Krummhörn region. Notwithstanding these observed differences, the general consistency and robustness of the sibship effect across the different ecological and economic contexts is our most interesting result. In addition, through side-by-side comparison of across-family and within-family analyses, we argue that sibling competition – or sacrifice – is manifested as an internal familial dynamic, but is obscured in non-fixed effects models by a broader trend of family cooperation. Through this comparison we are able to reconcile family solidarity and sibling competition/sacrifice as coexisting phenomena. Results are robust to inclusion of covariate interactions with time, inclusion of indicators for high levels of extrinsic risk, estimation of shared frailty models, alternative methods of dealing with ties in the dataset, including recomposed families in the dataset, excluding individuals whose death dates are ‘heaped’, and excluding individuals born to large families.

Effects of language proficiency on labour, social and health outcomes of immigrants in Australia

We investigate the causal effect of English proficiency on labour, social and health outcomes of immigrants in Australia. We use age at arrival combined with country of origin to form an instrument of English proficiency. We find that immigrants in Australia with better language proficiency are able to earn higher income, attain higher level of education, have higher probability of complete tertiary studies, and get more hours of work per week. Language proficiency also improves social integration, leading to higher probability of marriage to a native and higher probability of obtaining citizenship. We find only limited evidence with respect to the hypothesised causal relationship between language and health for immigrants. This last result may be due to small sample sizes.

Student loans or marriage? A look at the highly educated

I examine the relationship between student loans and marital status among individuals considering or pursuing graduate management education. Using data from a panel survey of registrants for the Graduate Management Admission Test, I show that the amount of accumulated student debt is negatively related to the probability of first marriage. The strength of the relationship diminishes with age, more so for women than for men. At the median age for the sample (24 years at test registration), the estimated decrease over a seven-year period is between 3 and 4 percentage points per $10,000 in student debt for men and a percentage point lower in absolute value for women. I use information on reported marriage expectations to show evidence that education expenditures and the amount of debt are correlated with anticipated marital status, but borrowers may not have perfect foresight about the long-term consequences of accumulating student debt.

Fitness Consequences of Advanced Ancestral Age over Three Generations in Humans.

A rapid rise in age at parenthood in contemporary societies has increased interest in reports of higher prevalence of de novo mutations and health problems in individuals with older fathers, but the fitness consequences of such age effects over several generations remain untested. Here, we use extensive pedigree data on seven pre-industrial Finnish populations to show how the ages of ancestors for up to three generations are associated with fitness traits. Individuals whose fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers fathered their lineage on average under age 30 were ~13% more likely to survive to adulthood than those whose ancestors fathered their lineage at over 40 years. In addition, females had a lower probability of marriage if their male ancestors were older. These findings are consistent with an increase of the number of accumulated de novo mutations with male age, suggesting that deleterious mutations acquired from recent ancestors may be a substantial burden to fitness in humans. However, possible non-mutational explanations for the observed associations are also discussed.

Negative Affect Reciprocity as an Explanation of the Correlation between Perpetrating and Being a Victim of Sexual Coercion

The purpose of this research was to test the negative affect reciprocity explanation of the positive correlation between being a victim of and perpetrating sexual coercion. In the first study, 92 participants who were in a romantic relationship filled out measures of sexual coercion and measures of relationship aggression. Supporting the negative affect reciprocity explanation, all of the measures (coercion and aggression) were positively intercorrelated. In the second study, 51 couples filled out the above measures. Supporting the negative affect reciprocity explanation, four of the six sexual coercion measures intercorrelate with themselves and all of the aggression measures intercorrelated. However, only some of the coercion and aggression measures intercorrelated suggesting that negative affect reciprocity in the two areas is to some extent independent. Both studies found that sexual coercion and aggression were to some extent negatively correlated with relationship satisfaction but not probability of marriage.

Intergenerational Transmission of Education in India: Evidence from a Nationwide Survey

The intergenerational transmission of education has been investigated extensively in social science research. The existing literature shows that none of the studies in India related the process of partner selection and differential fertility with the intergenerational transmission of education. Here, we examined the timing of marriage and childbearing along with the probability of partner selection, according to education of women and how these processes lead to heterogeneity in educational attainment of children. The educational attainment of children was estimated by fitting the estimated marriage probabilities and children ever born in the intergenerational transmission model. The results were replicated in different random samples to examine its validity. The study found that higher educated women marry late, have fewer children, and marry men with higher or equal education. Further, the results indicate that education of women is a more significant predictor than education of husband in reducing average number of children born to couples. The findings confirm that children attain higher education than their parents, and better educated mothers do not discriminate between their children to provide higher education. These findings reinforce the significance of government initiatives to provide incentives to families with higher educated girls to ensure better education of the next generation.

Optimal timing for elective egg freezing

To estimate the optimal age to pursue elective oocyte cryopreservation. A decision-tree model was constructed to determine the success and cost-effectiveness of oocyte preservation versus no action when considered at ages 25-40 years, assuming an attempt at procreation 3, 5, or 7 years after initial decision. Not applicable. Hypothetical patients 25-40 years old presenting to discuss elective oocyte cryopreservation. Decision to cryopreserve oocytes from age 25 years to age 40 years versus taking no action. Probability of live birth after initial decision whether or not to cryopreserve oocytes. Oocyte cryopreservation provided the greatest improvement in probability of live birth compared with no action (51.6% vs. 21.9%) when performed at age 37 years. The highest probability of live birth was seen when oocyte cryopreservation was performed at ages <34 years (>74%), although little benefit over no action was seen at ages 25-30 years (2.6%-7.1% increase). Oocyte cryopreservation was most cost-effective at age 37 years, at $28,759 per each additional live birth in the oocyte cryopreservation group. When the probability of marriage was included, oocyte cryopreservation resulted in little improvement in live birth rates. Oocyte cryopreservation can be of great benefit to specific women and has the highest chance of success when performed at an earlier age. At age 37 years, oocyte cryopreservation has the largest benefit over no action and is most cost-effective.

Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics

Why did the marriage probability of single females in France after World War 1 rise 50% above its pre-war average, despite a 33% drop in the male/female singles ratio? We conjecture that war-time disruption of the marriage market generated an abnormal abundance of men with relatively high marriage propensities. Our model of matching over the lifecycle, when calibrated to pre-war data and two war-time shocks, succeeds in matching the French time path under the additional assumption of a pro-natalist post-war preference shock. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.

The Effect of Marriage Tax Penalties and Subsidies on Marital Status

AbstractThe United States personal income tax system treats married and unmarried couples differently, creating both penalties and subsidies for marriage. This paper examines the effect of these penalties and subsidies on the choice of marital status. Endogeneity between the marriage penalty a couple faces and its marital status is dealt with using a simulated instrument capturing variation in the tax code over time and between states. I find that a $1,000 change in the financial incentive for marriage has a 1.7 percentage point (1.9 per cent) effect on the probability of marriage. This effect is symmetric for subsidies and penalties and, whilst modest, is four times larger than previously estimated. Lower education groups and couples without children are the most responsive.

Marrying after arriving: The role of individuals' networks for immigrant choice of partner's origin.

This paper analyses the impact of social networks on the transition to marriage among recently arrived, single, immigrants in Spain. Our hypothesis states that the existence of individual networks at the moment of arrival strongly influences partner selection. Using the 2007 Spanish National Immigration Survey we apply competing risk models to estimate the likelihood of endogamous or exogamous marriage, for men and women separately. The analysis shows that among immigrant men and women, the presence of relatives or friends from their home-country at the time of arrival increases the probability of marriage to a co-national. Correspondingly, immigrants who obtained Spanish citizenship before migrating present higher chances of intermarriage, as they are likely to have more contact with the host society.

Ethnicity, Marriage and Family Income

This study adds a microeconomic perspective to the discussion on ethnic diversity and economic performance in developing countries by investigating the motivation for intra-ethnicity marriage in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, the paper proposes that ethnic similarity between spouses enhances economic outcomes through a shared agricultural production technology. Furthermore, the framework suggests that the probability of marriage within the same ethnic group is positively related to the size of the group due to frictions in the marriage market: Search costs for co-ethnic spouses are larger the smaller the group. The theoretical propositions are supported using Ethiopian rural household data by demonstrating that inter-ethnicity marriage of the household head has adverse implications for family income. The negative effect is robust to controlling for lagged income and initial conditions, present when investigating the link with changes in family wealth, and persists in additional sensitivity checks.

Shared Reality and Grounded Feelings During Courtship: Do They Matter for Marital Success?

This study provides evidence that newlywed pairs who have a shared and well‐grounded understanding of their courtship are better able to establish unions that endure. Using a sample of 168 couples, the authors found that marriages were more likely to survive when courting partners (a) loved each other to a similar degree, (b) depicted the probability of marriage and changes in the likelihood of marriage in a corresponding fashion over the course of their courtship, and (c) portrayed the courtship as escalating from a low (25%) to a high (75%) probability of marriage as spanning a comparable period of time. The durability of marriages was reflected, as well, in how solidly courting partners' feelings for each other were interwoven with their courtship experiences. More specifically, courtship difficulties were not as associated with weakened feelings of love or with heightened feelings of ambivalence among couples who later divorced as compared to those who stayed married.

Early marriage, adolescent motherhood, and reproductive rights for young Sasak mothers in Lombok

This article focuses on Indonesian adolescents who are wives and mothers, demonstrating how early marriage and adolescent motherhood are normative among women from poor Sasak communities in Western Lombok. It is based on ethnographic research with 28 young mothers that included focus group discussions, in depth interviews, and observations. Demographic and ethnographic data on the aetiology of early marriage and adolescent motherhood are discussed, and confirm that low educational attainment for girls, lack of employment prospects, poverty, and low levels of economic development are all associated with a higher probability of adolescent marriage and motherhood in Indonesia. The article also reveals how conservative sexual morality and local marriage customs can propel girls into early marriage. It provides a human rights analysis that demonstrates how early marriage and adolescent motherhood intersect with the neglect of girls’ rights to education, employment, equality in marriage, health information, family planning, and maternal health.

Analyzing the Transformation of China’s First Marriage Pattern Using Nuptiality Tables

Using data from several censuses in China, including the newly released 2010 data, this study constructs net nuptiality tables as an analytical instrument to descriptively analyse the shape of China’s first marriage pattern from 1982 to 2010, including the age-specific probabilities of first marriage, the percentage of remaining single by age, and number of years remaining single by age for both males and females. Our analysis reveals that while age-specific probabilities of first marriage have significantly declined for females during the past three decades, such probabilities for males have declined much less. The percentage remaining single below age 30 has increased up to 2010. At age 50 the proportion is 4.6 percent for males, while that for females is just one percent. Patterns of singlehood have also changed at younger ages, with an ever increasing period of singlehood, especially for males.

Marital formation in individuals with work-related permanent impairment

BackgroundPrior studies on the impact of disabling work injury have neglected social support as a key mediating factor. This study investigates how permanent impairment from a work injury affects marital formation, an indicator of social support and integration with the potential to affect psychosocial adjustment and the resumption of productive social roles following work injury. HypothesesAdjusting for socio-demographic and economic factors associated with marriageability, we expect that individuals with a work-related permanent impairment will have a lower rate of marital formation compared to their non-injured counterparts. MethodsDrawing on a linkage of workers' compensation claims data with income tax information, we undertake a duration modeling analysis comparing workers who have sustained a workplace injury with a matched sample of non-injured controls to examine time to marital formation in each group. ResultsWomen who suffered a disabling work injury were 17% less likely to marry relative to controls. High levels of physical impairment reduced the rate of marriage in women by 22%. We did not find an effect of impairment on marriage probability in models adjusted for income in men. ConclusionsOur findings underscore the importance of examining the social and interpersonal consequences of work injury, factors not currently addressed by the occupational rehabilitation system.

Early-Life Mental Disorders and Adult Household Income in the World Mental Health Surveys

Better information on the human capital costs of early-onset mental disorders could increase sensitivity of policy makers to the value of expanding initiatives for early detection and treatment. Data are presented on one important aspect of these costs: the associations of early-onset mental disorders with adult household income. Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health Surveys in 11 high-income, five upper-middle income, and six low/lower-middle income countries. Information about 15 lifetime DSM-IV mental disorders as of age of completing education, retrospectively assessed with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, was used to predict current household income among respondents aged 18 to 64 (n = 37,741) controlling for level of education. Gross associations were decomposed to evaluate mediating effects through major components of household income. Early-onset mental disorders are associated with significantly reduced household income in high and upper-middle income countries but not low/lower-middle income countries, with associations consistently stronger among women than men. Total associations are largely due to low personal earnings (increased unemployment, decreased earnings among the employed) and spouse earnings (decreased probabilities of marriage and, if married, spouse employment and low earnings of employed spouses). Individual-level effect sizes are equivalent to 16% to 33% of median within-country household income, and population-level effect sizes are in the range 1.0% to 1.4% of gross household income. Early mental disorders are associated with substantial decrements in income net of education at both individual and societal levels. Policy makers should take these associations into consideration in making health care research and treatment resource allocation decisions.

The Impact of Adolescent Deviance on Marital Trajectories

Marriage is a key life event that has numerous benefits. Recent research extends these benefits to include desistance from crime and drug use yet there has been little investigation regarding whether deviant behavior in adolescence impacts long-term marital patterns. Since rates of marriage are low among African Americans and rates of adolescent deviance and crime are high, we investigate the long-term relationship between the two drawing on longitudinal data from the Woodlawn cohort of urban African Americans. This article investigates whether serious adolescent delinquency and marijuana use predict marital trajectories, controlling for known correlates. Multivariate findings indicate that within this African-American population, deviance predicts the probability of marriage, stability of marriage, and timing of marriage for men yet deviance relates solely to the probability of marriage for women.

Socio-economic resources and first-union formation in Finland, cohorts born 1969–81

Social scientists generally agree that better individual economic prospects enhance the probability of marriage for men, whereas there are conflicting views with regard to women. Moreover, it is argued that cohabitation does not require as strong an economic foundation as marriage. The aim of this study, which was based on Finnish register data, was to find out how the socio-economic resources of young adults affect first-union formation, and whether the effects vary by sex or union type. The results show that high education, labour-force participation, and high income seem to promote union formation. The findings are similar for women and men, which is plausible given the comparatively gender-egalitarian societal context. Similar factors encourage entry into both union types, although the union-promoting effects of university-level education and stable employment are stronger in the marriage models, suggesting that long-term prospects are more important when marriage is contemplated.