Markov Microsimulation Research Articles

Cost-effectiveness of operative intervention for mucinous cystic neoplasm: the role of post-operative diabetes.

Small mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCN) of the pancreas are managed with operative resection in otherwise healthy patients; however, postoperative diabetes development is not considered in recommendations for resection. Via probabilistic microsimulation Markov modeling, we assessed clinical and economic implications of laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP) versus surveillance for non-DM patients with suspected MCN of 2 cm without high-risk or worrisome features. Primary outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), medical costs (2021 USD), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the robustness of our model to changes in input parameters. All analyses were repeated for a population with pre-DM. Surveillance resulted in 6.52 QALYs and $61,200, while LDP accumulated 6.12 QALYs and $63,700. Almost 20% of the LDP cohort developed DM over the first 10 years, compared to 11% of the surveillance cohort. In a pre-DM cohort, LDP remained Dominated in the base case, with over 40% developing DM postoperatively. In sensitivity analyses, surveillance remained the preferred strategy in most iterations for both cohorts. Surveillance for small suspected MCNs without high-risk features is the preferred strategy from a clinical and economic standpoint. Consensus guidelines should consider the long-term implications of postoperative diabetes development following LDP.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Berberine Chemoprevention for Colorectal Cancer After Polypectomy.

Background Chemoprevention, such as berberine, has been developed as an alternative or complementary strategy to colonoscopy surveillance and has shown promise in reducing the morbidity and mortality of colorectal cancer. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of berberine for postpolypectomy patients from the US third-party payer. Methods A Markov microsimulation model was developed to compare the cost and efficacy of berberine to no intervention, colonoscopy, and the combination of berberine and colonoscopy in postpolypectomy patients. Results After simulating 1 million patients, the study found that colonoscopy alone had a mean cost of $16,391 andmean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of 16.03 per patient, whereas adding berberine slightly reduced the mean cost to $15,609 with a mean QALY of 16.05, making it a dominant strategy. Berberine therapy alone was less effective than colonoscopy alone, with a higher mean cost of $37,480 and a mean QALY of 15.32 per patient. However, berberine therapy was found to be a dominant strategy over no intervention. Conclusions Adding berberine to colonoscopy is the most cost-saving and effective approach for postpolypectomy patients. For patients who refuse or have limited access to colonoscopy, berberine alone is likely to be a dominant strategy compared to no intervention.

Cost-effectiveness of romosozumab for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at high risk of fracture in Belgium

SummaryThis study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of sequential treatment with romosozumab-to-alendronate compared to alendronate monotherapy and teriparatide-to-alendronate, in postmenopausal osteoporotic women from a Belgian healthcare perspective. Romosozumab-to-alendronate was found to be cost-effective compared to alendronate monotherapy and dominant compared to teriparatide-to-alendronate for osteoporotic women at high risk of fracture in Belgium.PurposeThis study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sequential treatment with romosozumab followed by alendronate compared to alendronate monotherapy and teriparatide followed by alendronate, in postmenopausal osteoporotic women at high risk of fracture, from a Belgian healthcare perspective. Romosozumab is reimbursed in Belgium since December 2021.MethodsA Markov microsimulation model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of romosozumab-to-alendronate compared to alendronate monotherapy and to teriparatide-to-alendronate over a lifetime horizon. Patients transition between five different health states every 6 months based on fracture risks or death. The model was populated with Belgium-specific epidemiological and cost data, where available. The fracture risk reduction of romosozumab treatment was collated from the ARCH study, and from a published network meta-analysis. Costs were included from a healthcare perspective (NIHDI). Cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), reported in Euro (€) 2022. Deterministic (DSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed.ResultsRomosozumab-to-alendronate was associated with 0.12 additional QALYs at an additional cost of €2314 compared to alendronate monotherapy, resulting in an ICER of €19,978. Compared to teriparatide-to-alendronate, romosozumab-to-alendronate was found to be dominant, with higher QALYs and lower costs. The base-case results were robust to uncertainty in the input parameters when conducting the sensitivity analysis.ConclusionSequential treatment with romosozumab followed by alendronate was found to be cost-effective compared to alendronate monotherapy and dominant compared to teriparatide followed by alendronate for postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at high risk of fracture in Belgium.

Patient-Relevant Costs for Organ Preservation versus Radical Resection in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) is an evolving treatment schedule for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), allowing for organ preservation in a relevant number of patients in the case of complete response. Patients who undergo this so-called "watch and wait" approach are likely to benefit regarding their quality of life (QoL), especially if definitive ostomy could be avoided. In this work, we performed the first cost-effectiveness analysis from the patient perspective to compare costs for TNT with radical resection after neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) in the German health care system. Individual costs for patients insured with a statutory health insurance were calculated with a Markov microsimulation. A subgroup analysis from the prospective "FinTox" trial was used to calibrate the model's parameters. We found that TNT was less expensive (-1540 EUR) and simultaneously resulted in a better QoL (+0.64 QALYs) during treatment and 5-year follow-up. The average cost for patients under TNT was 4711 EUR per year, which was equivalent to 3.2% of the net household income. CRT followed by resection resulted in higher overall costs for ostomy care, medication and greater loss of earnings. Overall, TNT appeared to be more efficacious and cost-effective from a patient's point of view in the German health care system.

Lives Saved Through Increasing Adherence to Follow-Up After Abnormal Cervical Cancer Screening Results.

To model the potential number of cancers prevented and life-years saved over a range of adherence rates to cervical cancer screening, surveillance follow-up, and follow-up colposcopy that may result from removing financial barriers to these essential clinical services. A previously validated decision-analytic Markov microsimulation model was used to evaluate the increase in adherence to screening, surveillance, and colposcopy after an abnormal cervical cancer screening result. For each incremental increase in adherence, we modeled the number of cervical cancer cases avoided, the stages at which the cancers were detected, the number of cervical cancer deaths avoided, and the number of life-years gained. Compared with current adherence rates, the model estimated that an optimized scenario of perfect screening, surveillance, and colposcopy adherence per 100,000 women currently eligible for screening in the United States was 128 (95% CI, 66-199) fewer cervical cancers detected (23%), 62 (95% CI, 7-120) fewer cervical cancer deaths (20%), and 2,135 (95% CI, 1,363-3,057) more life-years saved. Sensitivity analysis revealed that any increase in adherence led to clinically meaningful health benefits. The consequences of not attending routine screening or follow-up after an abnormal cervical cancer screening result are associated with preventable cervical cancer morbidity and premature mortality. Given the potential for the removal of consumer cost sharing to increase the use of necessary follow-up after abnormal screening results and to ultimately reduce cervical cancer morbidity and mortality, public and private payers should remove cost barriers to these essential services.

The impact of alternate HPV vaccination and cervical screening strategies in Japan: a cost-effectiveness analysis

The Japanese 2020 cervical screening guidelines recommend conventional cervical cytology screening every 2-years for women aged 20-69 years. The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has also recently been approved in Japan. We therefore evaluated the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies alongside universal nonavalent HPV vaccination of girls (12-16 years). A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an age-specific Markov microsimulation model for Japan to evaluate total costs, quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), colposcopies, biopsies, precancer and cervical cancer treatments for 29 combined vaccination and screening strategies (conventional cytology, liquid-based cytology (LBC), HPV testing, and HPV self-collection). A cohort of 100,000 girls (12-16 years old) over a lifetime offered the nonavalent HPV vaccine was used (current vaccination coverage=0.08%, current screening coverage=43.7%). A discount rate of 3% was applied to costs and QALYs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess robustness of the findings. Costs were reported in US dollars (2023). Compared with conventional cytology, evaluated strategies would incur an additional cost of US$839,280-738,182,669 and gain 62,755-247,347 quality-adjusted-life-years. HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be most cost-effective (ICER= US$7511 per QALY gained). At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of 1-times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the probability of it being cost-effective was 70%. At historically high vaccination coverage (70%) ICERs decreased overall but did not affect the ranking of the most cost-effective strategy. While a 5-yearly interval became more cost-effective than a 3-yearly interval. Including HPV self-collection for under-screened women made all strategies more cost-effective. At current cervical screening participation (43.7%) and low vaccination coverage (<1.0%), HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be the most cost-effective screening strategy compared to conventional cytology (2-yearly). Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (17H03589) and Grants of the National Cancer Center Japan (Gan Kenkyu Kaihatsuhi 31-A-20 and 2023-A-23).

Abstract 13727: Cost-Effectiveness of Sotagliflozin in Heart Failure Patients With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fractions—Results From the SOLOIST-WHF

Background: SOLOIST-WHF (Effect of Sotagliflozin on Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Post Worsening Heart Failure) showed patients with diabetes and recent worsening heart failure (HF), sotagliflozin initiated before or shortly after discharge lowered incident cardiovascular deaths, hospitalizations, and HF urgent visits. In this study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of sotagliflozin in all patients and those with preserved (HFpEF ≥50%) and reduced (HFrEF &lt;50%) ejection fraction. Methods: We ran a Markov microsimulation model based on treatment effects from SOLOIST-WHF, healthcare costs and utilities from national sources, and estimated net costs for sotagliflozin of $434 (range from $407 to $612) monthly, to calculate projected lifetime healthcare costs, HF and CVD events, survival, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for sotagliflozin vs placebo in SOLOIST-WHF eligible patients from a payer perspective. Outcome measured as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), incremental costs / QALYs gained. Sensitivity analyses assessed and quantified uncertainties. Results: Over a lifetime, sotagliflozin compared to placebo added 0.39 QALYs (4.43 vs. 4.04 QALYs) and 0.64 life-years (7.12 vs. 6.48) at an incremental cost of $29,449 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): $26,610-$32,528) for an ICER of $75,510 per QALY gained (UI: $55,640-$98,300). In HFpEF patients, sotagliflozin compared to placebo added 0.43 QALYs (4.53 vs. 4.10 QALYs) and 0.68 life-years (7.14 vs. 6.46) at an incremental cost of $26,615 (UI: $23,376-$29,694) for an ICER of $61,488 per QALY gained (UI: $41,618-$84,280). In HRrEF patients, sotagliflozin added 0.37 QALYs (4.33 vs. 3.96 QALYs) and 0.63 life-years (7.09 vs. 6.46) at an incremental cost of $30,012 (UI: $26,773-$33,251) for an ICER of $77,996 per QALY gained (UI: $58,126-$100,780). The benefit of sotagliflozin in QALY mainly results from the decrease in CVD deaths. Findings were sensitive to drug cost and number of readmissions. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that sotagliflozin priced from $407 to $612 per month is a clinically and economically favorable medication in patients with diabetes, recent worsening heart failure, with both preserved and reduced ejection fraction.

Early offering transcatheter aortic valve replacement to patients with moderate aortic stenosis: quantifying costs and benefits – a Markov model-based simulation study

ObjectiveAortic stenosis (AS) is one of the most common acquired cardiac valvular diseases. The success of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) for severe AS has led to increasing interest in...

Cost-Effectiveness of Antiobesity Drugs for Adolescents With Severe Obesity

Although the American Academy of Pediatrics has recommended treatment with antiobesity drugs for adolescents, the cost-effectiveness of antiobesity drugs for this population is still unknown. To quantify cost-effectiveness of different antiobesity drugs available for pediatric use. This economic evaluation used a Markov microsimulation model with health states defined by obesity levels. Effectiveness was measured by quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs were calculated from third-party payer perspective, estimated in 2023 US dollars over a 10-year horizon. Data were obtained from the published literature. Antiobesity drugs orlistat, liraglutide, semaglutide, and phentermine-topiramate vs no treatment. Metformin hydrochloride and 2 types of bariatric surgical procedures (sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass) were considered in sensitivity analysis. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Among the 4 antiobesity drugs currently approved for pediatric use, phentermine-topiramate was the most cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $93 620 per QALY relative to no treatment in this simulated cohort of 10 000 adolescents aged 12 to 17 years (mode, 15 years) with severe obesity (62% female). While semaglutide offered more QALYs than phentermine-topiramate, its higher cost resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ($1 079 480/QALY) that exceeded the commonly used willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 to $150 000/QALY. Orlistat and liraglutide cost more and were less effective than phentermine-topiramate and semaglutide, respectively. Sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass were more effective than phentermine-topiramate but were also more costly, rendering them not cost-effective compared with phentermine-topiramate at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 to $150 000/QALY. In this economic evaluation of weight loss drugs for adolescents with severe obesity, we found phentermine-topiramate to be a cost-effective treatment at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 to $150 000/QALY. Further research is needed to determine long-term drug efficacy and how long adolescents continue treatment.

The health, economic and social burden of smoking in Argentina, and the impact of increasing tobacco taxes in a context of illicit trade.

Tobacco tax increases, the most cost-effective measure in reducing consumption, remain underutilized in low and middle-income countries. This study estimates the health and economic burden of smoking in Argentina and forecasts the benefits of tobacco tax hikes, accounting for the potential effects of illicit trade. Using a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model, this study quantifies smoking-related deaths, health events, and societal costs. The model also estimates the health and economic benefits of different increases in the price of cigarettes through taxes. Annually, smoking causes 45,000 deaths and 221,000 health events in Argentina, costing USD 2782 million in direct medical expenses, USD 1470 million in labor productivity loss costs, and USD 1069 million in informal care costs-totaling 1.2% of the national gross domestic product. Even in a scenario that considers illicit trade of tobacco products, a 50% cigarette price increase through taxes could yield USD 8292 million in total economic benefits accumulated over a decade. Consequently, raising tobacco taxes could significantly reduce the health and economic burdens of smoking in Argentina while increasing fiscal revenue.

Economic evaluation of four treatment strategies for postmenopausal patients with osteoporosis and a recent fracture in mainland China: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four anti-osteoporosis medications (denosumab, zoledronate, teriparatide, and alendronate) for postmenopausal osteoporotic women in mainland China, using a stratified treatment strategy recommended by the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists and the American College of Endocrinology (AACE/ACE). A microsimulation Markov model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of the four treatments in postmenopausal osteoporotic patients of different ages (65, 70, 75, and 80 years), with a recent fracture from the Chinese healthcare perspective. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which represent the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) obtained. One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were performed to assess the robustness of model findings. Alendronate was dominated by denosumab-to-alendronate and zoledronate at all ages examined, indicating that the costs of the two drugs were lower, but QALYs was greater. However, teriparatide-to-alendronate yielded an ICER of $76,432.07/ QALY, compared with alendronate at age 65, which exceeded the pre-determined willingness-to-pay threshold of $37,653/ QALY. The results were similar at other ages. The DSA showed that the most sensitive parameters were drug efficacy for vertebral and wrist fractures, the relative risk of vertebral fractures, and the persistence of the drugs. The PSA showed that zoledronate had a 100% probability of being the most cost-effective treatment, with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $37,653/ QALY. Stratified treatment based on very high fracture risk is more cost-effective than conventional pills in mainland China. Among the stratified treatments, zoledronate is the optimal option.

Cost-Effectiveness of Osteoporosis Opportunistic Screening Using Computed Tomography in China

ObjectivesUnderutilization and insufficient availability of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in diagnosing osteoporosis in China could be changed by adopting unindicated quantitative computed tomography. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of quantitative computed tomography (QCT) as a screening tool for osteoporosis in China. MethodsA Markov microsimulation model was developed to assess the long-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved associated with 2 examinations as opportunistic screening for osteoporosis in a general population without prior histories of fracture. The diagnostic performance of both examinations was incorporated into the model. In lifetime modeling, opportunistically screened people may face the risk of experiencing hip, vertebral, and wrist fractures depending on their osteoporosis, age, and sex. Model parameters were informed by published literature. ResultsThe base-case result showed that QCT was associated with higher costs ($6054 vs $5883) and higher benefits (10.081 vs 10.071 QALYs) in comparison with DXA, making QCT a cost-effective option for opportunistic screening (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $16 430/QALY). Screening with QCT led to fewer fractures over the lifetime simulation: for every 10 000 people screened, 129 fractures (32 hip, 78 vertebral, and 19 wrist fractures) could be avoided because of the early initiation of antiosteoporotic treatment. ConclusionsUsing QCT to screen people for osteoporosis is more cost-effective than standard practice in China, where access to DXA is minimal. This finding could support opportunistic osteoporosis screening using QCT in other countries with similar status.

Cost-effectiveness of canagliflozin and dapagliflozin for treatment of patients with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes.

To examine the cost-effectiveness of adding canagliflozin or dapagliflozin to standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We used a Markov microsimulation model to assess the cost-effectiveness of canagliflozin plus SoC (canagliflozin + SoC), dapagliflozin plus SoC (dapagliflozin + SoC) and SoC alone. Analyses were conducted from a healthcare system perspective. Costs were measured in 2021 Canadian dollars (C$), and effectiveness was measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Over a patient's lifetime, canagliflozin + SoC and dapagliflozin + SoC yielded cost savings of C$33 460 and C$26 764 and generated 1.38 and 1.44 additional QALYs compared with SoC alone, respectively. While QALY gains with dapagliflozin + SoC were higher than those with canagliflozin + SoC, this strategy was also more costly with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio exceeding the willingness to pay threshold of C$50 000 per QALY. Dapagliflozin + SoC, however, generated cost savings and QALY gains compared with canagliflozin + SoC over shorter time horizons of 5 or 10 years. Dapagliflozin + SoC was not cost-effective versus canagliflozin + SoC in patients with CKD and T2D over the lifetime horizon. However, adding canagliflozin or dapagliflozin to SoC was less costly and more effective relative to SoC alone for treatment of CKD and T2D.

Cost-effectiveness of tenecteplase versus alteplase for stroke thrombolysis evaluation trial in the ambulance.

Tenecteplase administered to patients with ischaemic stroke in a mobile stroke unit (MSU) has been shown to reduce the perfusion lesion volumes and result in ultra-early recovery. We now seek to assess the cost-effectiveness of tenecteplase in the MSU. A within-trial (TASTE-A) economic analysis and a model-based long-term cost-effectiveness analysis were performed. This post hoc within-trial economic analysis utilised the patient-level data (intention to treat, ITT) prospectively collected over the trial to calculate the difference in both healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs, estimated from modified Rankin scale score). A Markov microsimulation model was developed to simulate the long-term costs and benefits. In total, there were 104 patients with ischaemic stroke randomised to tenecteplase (n = 55) or alteplase (n = 49) treatment groups, respectively in the TASTE-A trial. The ITT-based analysis showed that treatment with tenecteplase was associated with non-signficantly lower costs (A$28,903 vs A$40,150 (p = 0.056)) and greater benefits (0.171 vs 0.158 (p = 0.457)) than that for the alteplase group over the first 90 days post the index stroke. The long-term model showed that tenecteplase led to greater savings in costs (-A$18,610) and more health benefits (0.47 QALY or 0.31 LY gains). Tenecteplase-treated patients had reduced costs for rehospitalisation (-A$1464), nursing home care (-A$16,767) and nonmedical care (-A$620) per patient. Treatment of ischaemic stroke patients with tenecteplase appeared to be cost-effective and improve QALYs in the MSU setting based on Phase II data. The reduced total cost from tenecteplase was driven by savings from acute hospitalisation and reduce need for nursing home care.

The savings associated with decriminalization of drug use in New South Wales, Australia: A comparison of four drug policies

IntroductionMost Australian states and territories have established some form of scheme to divert minor drug offenders from court. However, the number charged with drug possession continues to rise. We examine the costs of four alternatives to existing policy in relation to people apprehended by police using or in possession of a prohibited drug. MethodsWe construct a Markov micro-simulation model to examine four policies: (1) current policy; (2) expanding the existing cannabis cautioning scheme to all drug use/possession offences; (3) issuing an infringement notice to all those found using or in possession of a prohibited drug; (4) prosecuting all drug use/possession offences in the courts. The cycle length is one month. Since our aim is to examine the cost to the government, all costs are taken from the Government perspective and are in 2020 Australian dollars. ResultsThe current estimated annual cost per offence is $977 (SD: $293). Policy 2 costs $507 per offence per year (SD: $106). Policy 3 turns into a net revenue gain of $225 (SD: $68) per offence per annum. Policy 4 lifts the current cost of processing from $977 to $1282 per offence per year (SD: $321). ConclusionsExtending the cannabis cautioning scheme to all drugs would reduce the cost of current policy by more than 50 %. A policy of issuing infringement notices or cautions for drug use/possession would save costs and generate income for the government.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal screening for biliary atresia in Japan.

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal newborn screening using stool color card or direct bilirubin (DB) testing when comparing with no screening for biliary atresia in Japanese setting. A decision analytic Markov microsimulation model was developed to evaluate the universal screening for biliary atresia. Our screening strategies included stool color card, DB, or no screening. The outcomes of all newborns undergoing 3 strategies were simulated to analyze event-free life-years defined as liver transplant-free survival, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a 25-year period with an annual discount rate of 2% applied for both costs and outcomes. A 1-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the uncertainty. There were 941 000 newborn infants in our cohort and 114 cases of biliary atresia. The base case analysis showed that the stool color card strategy was $14 927 337 higher than no screening with an increase in 44 more event-free life-years gained, resulting in an ICER of $339 258 per event-free life-year gained. The DB screening strategy compared with stool color card was $138 994 060 higher with an increase in 271 more event-free life-years gained and an ICER of $512 893 per event-free life-year gained. The DB screening strategy compared with no screening resulted in an ICER of $488 639 per event-free life-year gained. The DB screening resulted in 16 fewer liver transplants than stool color card and stool color card had 2 fewer liver transplants than no screening. Universal screening for biliary atresia could be cost-effective depending on the willingness to pay thresholds for health benefits.

Effect of mortality in cost-effectiveness modeling of disease-modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease.

We examined (1) the magnitude of mortality attributed to Alzheimer's disease (AD), and (2) the effect of mortality in cost-effectiveness modeling of hypothetical disease-modifying treatment (DMT) in AD. Data were derived from Swedish Dementia Registry (N=39,308). Mortality was analyzed with survival analysis and multinomial logistic regression. A Markov microsimulation model was used to model the cost effectiveness of DMT using routine care as a comparator. Three scenarios were simulated: (1) indirect effect, (2) no effect on overall mortality, (3) indirect effect on AD-related mortality. Overall mortality increased with cognitive decline, age, male sex, number of medications used, and lower body mass index. Nearly all cause-specific mortality was associated with cognitive decline. DMT increased survival by 0.35 years in scenario 1 and 0.14 years in scenario 3. DMT with no mortality effect is the least cost effective. The results provide key mortality estimates and demonstrate influences on the cost effectiveness of DMT. We describe cause-specific mortality in relation to disease severity in Alzheimer's disease (AD).We model different assumptions of disease-modifying treatment (DMT) on AD survival.DMT was the least cost effective when assuming no effect on AD survival.Cost effectiveness is mainly influenced by the relative cost of staying in each disease state.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Ultra-Hypofractionated Whole Breast Radiation Therapy Alone Versus Hormone Therapy Alone or Combined Treatment for Low-Risk ER-Positive Early Stage Breast Cancer in Women Aged 65 Years and Older

The optimal management of early-stage, low-risk, hormone-positive breast cancer in older women remains controversial. Recent trials have shown that 5-fraction ultrahypofractionated whole-breast irradiation (U-WBI) has similar outcomes to longer courses, reducing the cost and inconvenience of treatment. We performed a cost-utility analysis to compare U-WBI to hormone therapy alone or their combination. We simulated 3 different treatment approaches for women age 65 years or older with pT1-2N0 ER-positive invasive ductal carcinoma treated with lumpectomy with negative margins using a Markov microsimulation model. The strategies were U-WBI performed with a 3-dimensional conformal technique over 5 fractions without a boost ("radiation therapy [RT] alone"), adjuvant hormone therapy (anastrozole for 5 years) without RT ("aromatase-inhibitor [AI] alone"), or the combination of the 2. The combination strategy was calibrated to match trial results, and the relative effectiveness of the RT alone and AI alone strategies were inferred from previous randomized trials. The primary endpoint was the cost-effectiveness of the 3 strategies over a lifetime horizon as measured by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with a value of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year deemed "cost-effective." The model results compared with the prespecified target outcomes. On average, RT alone was the least expensive strategy ($14,775), with AI alone slightly more ($14,998), and combination therapy the costliest ($19,802). RT alone dominated AI alone (the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] -$5089). Combination therapy, compared with RT alone, was slightly more expensive than our definition of cost-effective (ICER $113,468) but was cost-effective compared with AI alone (ICER $54,451). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated RT alone to be cost-effective in 50% of trials, with combination therapy in 36% and AI alone in 14%. U-WBI alone appears the more cost-effective de-escalation strategy for these low-risk patients, compared with AI alone. Combining U-WBI and AI appears more costly but may be preferred by some patients.

Long-term benefits for lower socioeconomic groups by improving bowel screening participation in South Australia: A modelling study.

The gap in bowel cancer screening participation rates between the lowest socioeconomic position (SEP) groups and the highest in Australia is widening. This study estimates the long-term health impacts and healthcare costs at current colorectal cancer (CRC) screening participation rates by SEP in South Australia (SA). A Markov microsimulation model for each socioeconomic quintile in SA estimated health outcomes over the lifetime of a population aged 50-74 years (total n = 513,000). The model simulated the development of CRC, considering participation rates in the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program and estimated numbers of cases of CRC, CRC deaths, adenomas detected, mean costs of screening and treatment, and quality adjusted life years. Screened status, stage of diagnosis and survival were obtained for patients diagnosed with CRC in 2006-2013 using data linked to the SA Cancer Registry. We predict 10915 cases of CRC (95%CI: 8017─13812) in the lowest quintile (Q1), 17% more than the highest quintile (Q5) and 3265 CRC deaths (95%CI: 2120─4410) in Q1, 24% more than Q5. Average costs per person, were 29% higher in Q1 at $11997 ($8754─$15240) compared to Q5 $9281 ($6555─$12007). When substituting Q1 screening and diagnostic testing rates with Q5's, 17% more colonoscopies occur and adenomas and cancers detected increase by 102% in Q1. Inequalities were evident in CRC cases and deaths, as well as adenomas and cancers that could be detected earlier. Implementing programs to increase screening uptake and follow-up tests for lower socioeconomic groups is critical to improve the health of these priority population groups.

CHRONIC DISEASE AND LIFE EXPECTANCY DISPARITIES OF OLDER ADULTS IN SINGAPORE

Abstract Singapore is one of the countries with longest life expectancy, also one of the most rapidly ageing societies in the world. This study investigates the future demographic transitions in Singapore, focusing on the life expectancy disparities of the older adults. We developed a dynamic Markov microsimulation model based on the Singapore Multi-Ethnic Cohort study. The model was adapted to project future trends of chronic diseases, mental illnesses as well as hospitalisation costs of Singapore older people from 2020 to 2050. The prevalences of diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, disability, dementia and depression of people aged 51 and above was projected to be increasing. Overall projected life expectancy at age 51 for male is 27.8 years, and for female is 34.5 years. Moreover, for older people with secondary or upper education, the overall projected life expectancy at age 51 is 34.1 years, active life expectancy at age 51 is 28.6 years. For older people with primary or lower education, the overall life expectancy at age 51 is projected to be 27.9 years, and active life expectancy projected to be 23.9 years. Our study has significant social and economic implications for policymakers in the way that it demonstrates disparate trends in aging and costs among different education groups in Singapore.