Market Reaction Research Articles

When echoes surpass voices: Market reaction to forwarded news

We examine the impacts of two types of news, forwarded news and novel news, on market reactions and investor attention in the Chinese stock market. Surprisingly, we find that forwarded news evokes a stronger market reaction than novel news. To understand this phenomenon, we investigate and find three mechanisms through which forwarded news influences investor behavior: filtering, verification, and amplification effects. The filtering effect shows that forwarded news, having been selected for resharing, contains information content that has persistent effects on stock return. The verification effect indicates that forwarded news, particularly following scandals involving news platforms, is perceived as more credible, thus eliciting a stronger market reaction. The amplification effect shows that the redistribution of news magnifies its reach and captures investor attention, leading to increased investor search and trading on the stocks. Moreover, the impact of forwarded news on investor attention is more pronounced for firms with greater information opacity. Our results show the distinctive roles of forwarded news and novel news in the financial market, highlighting the importance of considering the heterogeneity of news information.

The Impact of the Opportunity Zone Program on Residential Real Estate

Problem definition: Opportunity zones (OZs) are designated census tracts in which real estate investments can gain tax benefits. Introduced by the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, the goal of the OZ program is to foster economic development in distressed neighborhoods. In this paper, we investigate and optimize the OZ selection process and examine the impact of OZs by exploiting two data sets: a proprietary real estate data set that includes 36.1 million residential transactions spanning all 50 U.S. states and census-tract demographics data between 2010 and 2019. Methodology/results: We show that census tracts with higher poverty and unemployment rates were more likely to be selected. Counterintuitively, however, tracts with a higher average real estate price were also more likely to be selected. We then apply difference-in-differences, synthetic control, and matching techniques to rigorously assess the impact of the OZ program on two key real estate metrics: price and transaction volume. We find that the OZ program increased real estate prices by 4.03%–6.13% but do not observe a significant effect on the transaction volume. We also find that investors primarily targeted the high-end real estate market, namely, exhibiting a cherry-picking behavior. To better fulfill its intended societal and economic goals, we propose an optimization framework with fairness considerations for OZ assignment decisions. We show that the OZs assigned from our fairness-aware optimization formulation can better serve distressed communities and mitigate investors’ cherry-picking behavior. Managerial implications: Our paper underscores the importance of incorporating fairness in OZ designation to achieve a desirable real estate market reaction. Our large-scale empirical analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of the current government OZ assignment, and our fairness-aware optimization framework provides concrete recommendations for policy makers. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2024.0746 .

Stock market reaction to mandatory sustainability reporting: Does carbon‐intensity and environmental, social, and governance reputation matter?

AbstractWith a sample of 679 listed firms, integrating the event study method and cross‐sectional analysis, we examine the stock market reaction to mandatory sustainability reporting regulation in India. We find that (1) on average, investors react positively to such announcements; (2) the impact varies across different sectors; (3) affected and unaffected firms do not posit significant differences; (4) carbon‐intensive firms are positively impacted; and (5) high environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance is negatively associated with the event‐induced cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). One standard deviation change in ESG leads to −0.77%, −0.45%, and −0.61% significant changes in [+1,+5], [−5,+5], and [−7,+7] CAR, respectively. The findings align with the value relevance idea and the reputational risk theory but contradict the reservoir of goodwill hypothesis.

Market reaction on earnings announcement information contents: Analysis from book-to-market

Market reaction on earnings announcement information contents: Analysis from book-to-market

Mandating a dividend distribution policy disclosure over fixed dividend policy: a shareholder value perspective

ABSTRACT Shareholders may never be able to perfectly assess the optimal dividends paid by the firm. While fixing a certain dividend percentage by regulators, is one way to ensure shareholders’ dividend rights, mandating a dividend distribution policy (DDP) could be a unique alternative. This study examines the stock market reaction to a regulation that mandated a set of Indian firms to disclose their DDP. Using an event study coupled with Regression discontinuity design, we find that shareholders appreciate the value of the firms affected by the regulation by 1.15% on average, which is roughly 2–2.5% higher than firms unaffected by the regulation. This suggests that mandating information disclosure on dividend payouts can alleviate issues related to shareholders’ right for dividends without affecting firms’ investment decisions. Also, retained earnings play a price-differentiating role in dividend-paying and non-dividend paying firms.

Sharpened “Real Teeth” of China's securities regulatory agency: Evidence from CEO turnover

This study examines the real impacts of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's (CSRC) enforcement actions on CEO turnover in China's fully circulated market. Using data on Chinese publicly listed firms from 2008 to 2022, we find that misconduct behavior alone does not directly lead to CEO turnover. In contrast, CSRC's enforcement actions elicit significant negative stock market reactions for both SOEs and non-SOEs post-2016 and substantially increase the likelihood of CEO turnover, with a notably larger impact on non-SOEs. Furthermore, enforcement actions involving more severe punishments and targeting information disclosure violations and operational misconduct are more effective at compelling CEOs to step down. Potential channels through which external regulatory actions influence firms' CEO replacement decisions include reducing agency costs and enhancing information transparency. These findings suggest that the “teeth” of China's securities regulatory agency now function primarily through market-based mechanisms rather than administrative force, and these “real teeth” are being sharpened by ongoing regulatory reforms.

Impacts of blockchain cooperation project announcements on corporate stock market values: a loose coupling theory perspective

Purpose As a disruptive technology, blockchain technology brings new opportunities and challenges to operations management. We aim to examine the influences of blockchain cooperation project announcements (BCPAs) on firms’ stock market reactions in an emerging market. From 2016 to 2021, a total of 113 BCPAs of listed firms from the Chinese A-share market are selected as samples.Design/methodology/approach This study is based on the loose coupling theory and uses the event study method and probit regression analysis.Findings We find BCPAs positively affect the firm’s stock price on the day they are released. Compared with vertical BCPAs in a supply chain, horizontal BCPAs exert a more positive market reaction. Moreover, a BCPA with a partner within a shorter geographical distance exerts a more positive influence on market reaction. Contrary to the intuition of the decentralized blockchain feature that one-to-many cooperation leads to better benefits, one-to-one BCPAs exert a more positive effect on market reaction than one-to-many BCPAs. We further find that (1) industry type has a certain impact on cooperation mode selection, and (2) manufacturing firms are more inclined to choose one-to-one cooperation than those in service industry.Originality/value We focus on the impact of blockchain cooperative announcements and additionally use the probit regression models to analyze the influencing factors of cooperation mode selection and find the critical role of the industry type, which complements the existing empirical research on blockchain announcements and is conducive to provide decision-making reference for managers.

The Stock Market Reaction to Green Bond Issuance: A Study Based on a Multidimensional Scaling Approach

The Stock Market Reaction to Green Bond Issuance: A Study Based on a Multidimensional Scaling Approach

Are state-owned enterprises more responsible for carbon neutrality? Evidence from stock market reactions to China’s commitment to carbon neutrality

This study investigates whether state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are more responsible for carbon neutrality in the context of a country that produces the most carbon dioxide. It examines listed firms’ market reactions to carbon neutrality commitment for China that was announced first time on 22 September 2020. Using the event study method and based on 2,792 listed firms, we find that overall market reactions to the carbon neutrality commitment is significantly negative, suggesting that firms are expected to exert genuine efforts towards attaining the national goal of carbon neutrality. Furthermore, our results indicate that SOEs encounter more substantial negative market reactions compared to non-SOEs, indicative of higher expectations placed on them for realizing the carbon neutrality commitment. Further analysis reveals that negative market reactions are particularly pronounced for central SOEs as opposed to local SOEs, as the former are perceived to bear a heavier responsibility in achieving national goals. Additionally, SOEs with higher corporate social responsibility scores experience stronger negative market reactions in comparison to those with lower scores. Further analysis based on a difference-in-differences method and a firm-year sample shows that SOEs reduce firm value and carbon emissions intensity more than non-SOEs after the carbon neutrality commitment. Overall, our study supports the argument that SOEs take more responsibility than non-SOEs in achieving carbon neutrality.

Does litigation contingency disclosure in corporate filings matter? Evidence from securities class action lawsuits

PurposeWe investigate the information content of legal contingency disclosures in corporate filings, specifically their usefulness in predicting settlement amounts and mitigation of market response to litigation resolution news.Design/methodology/approachUsing a hand-collected sample of disclosures for settled US securities class action lawsuits, we analyze the contents of the contingent liabilities disclosure before future settlements and classify them into two categories: “pessimistic” and “optimistic” disclosures. We examine whether the tone of disclosure is associated with litigation outcomes, such as settlement amounts and likelihood of incurring material losses, and its effect on market reaction to settlement announcements.FindingsDisclosures with optimistic views on lawsuits are settled for lower amounts, whereas those with more pessimistic views result in higher settlements. Furthermore, while, on average, investors react negatively to litigation resolutions, the market reaction is attenuated (exacerbated) when a prior legal liability disclosure was pessimistic (optimistic). Additionally, investors value disclosure consistency when a litigation outcome is aligned with its legal contingency disclosure. Finally, disclosure consistency is positively associated with managerial ownership as well as the largest shareholder ownership.Originality/valueThis study highlights that the overall tone in legal contingency disclosures is informative and has valuation implications for capital markets. It also highlights the benefits of consistent disclosure, i.e. litigation disclosure aligned with litigation outcomes, as it is viewed positively by investors.

The impact of COVID-19 stringency measures on emerging stock market stability: Does economic resilience matter?

PurposeThe current research aims to investigate the impact of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) evolution, government stringency measures and economic resilience on stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) emerging markets. Other macroeconomic factors were also taken into account.Design/methodology/approachBased on financial data from 10 selected MENA countries, we tested an integrated framework that has not yet been explored in prior research. The exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (E-GARCH) was adopted to analyze data from March 2020 to February 2022.FindingsOur research illustrates the direct and indirect effects of the virus outbreak on stock market stability and reports that economic resilience could alleviate the volatility shock. This finding is robust across the various proxies of economic resilience used in this study. We also argue that the negative impact of the pandemic on equity market variation gets more pronounced in countries with higher level of stringency scores.Practical implicationsPolicymakers ought to strengthen their economic structures and reinforce the economic governance at the national level to gain existing and potential investors’ trust and ensure lower stock market volatilities in times of crisis. Our study also recommends some key economic factors to consider while establishing efficient policies to tackle unexpected shocks and prevent financial meltdowns.Originality/valueOur findings add to the evolving literature on the reaction of economic and financial markets to the sanitary crisis, particularly in developing countries where research is still scarce. This study is the first of its kind to investigate the stock market reaction to stringency measures in the understudied MENA region.

Environmental Incidents, Policy Regulations, and Capital Market Reactions: Evidence from the “Cadmium Rice” Event in China

Environmental Incidents, Policy Regulations, and Capital Market Reactions: Evidence from the “Cadmium Rice” Event in China

Information asymmetry, policy shocks, and international equity investment: Evidence from the anti‐corruption campaign in China

AbstractInformation plays a critical role in financial transactions and markets, especially in international investment where foreign investors are at an informational disadvantage relative to domestic investors. Prior studies show a positive reaction of the Chinese capital market to China's anti‐corruption campaign, which is also consistent with improved performance of Chinese listed firms following the campaign. We document a contrasting reaction of less‐informed foreign investors. Exploiting staggered anti‐corruption investigations across provinces as plausibly exogenous shocks, we find that foreign institutional investors increase their equity investments in Chinese listed firms headquartered in affected provinces following the anti‐corruption campaign; foreign individual investors, by contrast, reduce their equity investments after the campaign, which is driven by those with non‐Chinese ethnicity. Further analyses show that the increased equity investments of foreign investors stem primarily from those residing in jurisdictions sharing a similar cultural tradition with China. Our study has significant implications for foreign investors in the context of the increasingly intense relationship between China and the West.

The Effect of the Evergrande Bankruptcy on Chinese Real Estate Listed Firms

The objective of the study is to examine the intra-industry effects of Evergrande’s bankruptcy on the Chinese real estate listed firms. Based on an event study, we evidence a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction to Evergrande’s bankruptcy announcement. These results are consistent with the contagion effect. We also find the highest negative impact on real estate firms with greater leverage and a higher similarity in cash flows with the bankrupt firm. Finally, the magnitude of the stock market reaction to Evergrande’s bankruptcy is reinforced or mitigated by firm-specific determinants such as size and liquidity.

How do stock markets in emerging economies respond to World Bank loan approvals?

This paper examines the impact of World Bank loan approvals on equity markets in borrowing countries. We exploit a rich dataset with World Bank loan commitments and daily stock market returns for 47 emerging markets, allowing us to study short run market reactions to news about World Bank programs. These programs fall into three categories: investment projects, structural adjustment loans that tie future macroeconomic reforms to future loan disbursements (prior to FY2006), and development policy loans that reward completed macroeconomic reforms with current loan disbursements (since FY2006). Event study analysis shows positive abnormal stock market returns on the trading day following investment project loan announcements. The effect depends on loan size as well as market characteristics. Structural adjustment loan announcements are followed by negative abnormal returns; development policy loan announcements, in contrast, are considered good news. This suggests that expected macroeconomic implications of policy change in response to loan conditions drive market reactions, and that changes in the conditionality and disbursement structure of World Bank policy lending were successful in improving market reactions to World Bank programs.

COVID-19 SHOCK: THE SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS

The new coronavirus has very seriously shaken the behavior of global financial markets. Globally, the COVID-19 shock is considered severe, even compared to the Great Financial Crisis that took place in 2007-2008. Considering the persistence of the virus, this study is designed to investigate the short-term impact of COVID-19 upon financial markets of Europe and the United States (US) in the entire year of 2020. In the research we used daily data from the period 1st January – 31st December 2020 and linear regression. The stock markets indices selected in the sample were: European stock indices DAX30, FTSE100 and CAC40 and the American stock indices DJI and S&P500. The study’s results showed that there is a significant relationship between the number of new daily cases of COVID-19 and the considered stock market indices. But there is a much stronger correlation between oil prices and stock indices than between the number of COVID-19 new cases and stock indices. We conclude that the market has been intensely agitated at a terrible level. The American, London, French and German stock markets reacted negatively to the increase in confirmed cases of COVID-19 and to the price of oil. So, the market reaction with respect to the number of COVID-19 new daily cases is significant.

Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization

We propose a method for identifying exposure to changes in trade policy based on asset prices that has several advantages over standard measures: it encompasses all avenues of exposure, it is natively firm-level, it yields estimates for both goods and service producers, and it can be used to study reductions in difficult-to-quantify non-tariff-barriers in a way that controls naturally for broader macroeconomic shocks. Applying our method to two well-studied US trade liberalizations provides new insight into service-sector responses and reveals dramatically different outcomes among small versus large firms, even within narrow industries.

Short-term market reactions to ESG ratings disclosures: An event study in the Chinese stock market

This paper evaluates how Chinese stocks respond to the onboarding of China-focused ESG scores on the Bloomberg Professional Terminal in the short term. By utilizing the event study approach, we find that the top 10 % of ESG-rated stocks react significantly positively to the onboarding event, whereas the bottom 10 % of ESG-rated stocks experience significant and negative cumulative average abnormal returns. Moreover, this effect is asymmetric in that the negative returns have a greater and more prominent magnitude than the positive returns. By comparing the cross-sectional data results before and after the rating event, we propose several channels through which these effects may function. The findings of this study also have economic and policy implications for investors and policy-makers.

Market reactions to capital increases: Insights from asset revaluation in pharmaceutical companies on the stock exchange

This study investigates the impact of capital increases on market reactions, focusing specifically on pharmaceutical companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). We analyze stock returns over a six-month window: three months preceding and three months following the announcement of capital increases. Employing the market model, we assess investor responses and the revaluation of assets associated with these capital injections. Our comprehensive sample includes 200 pharmaceutical firms selected through systematic random sampling, covering the period from 2017 to 2023. The results reveal that asset revaluation significantly enhances investor reactions compared to capital increases stemming from cash contributions and retained earnings. Furthermore, our findings underscore the critical role of information transparency from company management in shaping market responses. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of investor behavior and informs management strategies related to capital restructuring in the dynamic pharmaceutical sector.

The effects of integrated reporting quality: a meta-analytic review

PurposeThe effects of integrated reporting quality (IRQ) have been debated in increasing empirical studies. Several IRQ measures, different theoretical approaches and multiple contexts have been adopted and investigated, leading to mixed results. By using the meta-analytic technique, this study aims to contribute to the accounting literature, reconciling the conflicting results on the effects of IRQ and providing objective conclusions to complement narrative literature reviews.Design/methodology/approachA sample of 45 empirical papers from 2013 to 2022, with 653 effect sizes, was used to assess the effects associated with IRQ. The papers were clustered into five groups (market reaction, financial performance, cost of capital, financial analysts’ properties and managerial decisions) based on the different consequences of IRQ investigated in the primary studies. A random-effects meta-regression model was used to explore all sources of heterogeneity together.FindingsThe meta-regression results confirm that IRQ positively influences firms’ market valuation and financial performance and hampers opportunistic managerial behaviour by improving corporate transparency, mitigating information asymmetry and encouraging accountability. Moreover, differences in the study characteristics affect the strength of the relationship object of interest.Originality/valueThrough meta-analysis, this study provides a broader overview of the effects of IRQ by enhancing the generalisability of the findings. The results also pave the way for additional evidence on the outcome variables affected by the quality of integrated disclosure.