Market Share Model Research Articles

Spatial mapping of price competition using logit-type market share models and store-level scanner-data

This paper proposes a methodology to obtain reliable spatial maps of price competition using store-level scanner data. Specifically, a procedure to obtain a symmetric matrix of similarities between brands considering their substitutability depending on price variations is proposed. The matrix is derived from a market response model where price cross-effects are split into two components. The first component accounts for the fact that price variation in one brand can have different effects to price variation in other brands (ie j → j′≠j′ → j). The second component accounts for the fact that the price of each brand can have different effects across competing brands (ie j → j′≠j → j″). The matrix is obtained by imposing symmetry on this second component of price cross-effects. The parameterization of this symmetric matrix of similarities as the distances between the spatial representations of brands allows us to obtain the positioning maps. The proposed approach is illustrated through an empirical application.

Joint Inventory and Pricing Decisions for an Assortment

We seek optimal inventory levels and prices of multiple products in a given assortment in a newsvendor model (single period, stochastic demand) under price-based substitution, but not stockout-based substitution. We address a demand model involving multiplicative uncertainty, motivated by market share models often used in marketing. The pricing problem that arises is known not to be well behaved in the sense that, in its deterministic version, the objective function is not jointly quasi-concave in prices. However, we find that the objective function is still reasonably well behaved in the sense that there is a unique solution to the first-order conditions, and this solution is optimal for our problem.

SPS Regulations and Competitiveness

This article investigates India's export performance of spices (whole pepper and capsicum) in the markets of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and South and Southeast Asia, which constitute a substantial market for Indian spices. A Constant Market Share model is used to decompose the growth in exports of spices into size of the market effect, market composition effect and competitiveness effect. The analysis is performed for the exports during the nineties, the period India had to resort to increased challenges of food safety. The study confirms that there has not been substantial trade effect for Indian spices due to quality issues, such as sanitary and phytosanitary regulations. This article argues that increase in exports to neighbouring regions is explained more by the increased demand and supply and not by the stringent quality requirements of traditional importing countries.

Variable Pricing in Oligopoly Markets*

Behavioral research has found that consumers respond to variability in prices in addition to price levels. We show that this finding can explain why some firms vary their prices more frequently than others. We examine pricing strategies composed of an average price and price variability and employ logit market share models to analyze equilibrium pricing strategies in an oligopoly. Two competing logit specifications termed price sensitivity and payoff sensitivity are considered and are shown to yield contradictory implications for pricing policy. From three empirical studies on restaurant choice, we find that the price sensitivity model is the better model.

On the contribution of innovation to multi-factor productivity growth

We embed the innovation production function in a model that analyzes the impact of innovation output on manufacturing multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. We combine a market share model with a gross output production function. This revenue approach enables a ‘demand-shift’ interpretation of the contribution of innovation to MFP growth. We apply different sets of instrumental variables and different estimation methods to estimate simultaneously the returns from innovation investment to innovation output, the contribution of innovation output to productivity growth and the feedback link running from a firm’s overall sales performance to its innovation endeavor. We draw our empirical results from the second Community Innovation Survey (CIS-2) for the Netherlands. The estimation results from our model show that the impact of innovation differs between measures of firm performance, and that, in our data, the revenue function approach yields more sensible results for the contribution of innovation to MFP growth than the value-added production function framework. Furthermore, the results show that the estimation of return on innovation investment benefits from the inclusion of more information on the technological environment of the firm.

Asymmetric Consumer Learning and Inventory Competition

We develop a model of consumer learning and choice behavior in response to uncertain service in the marketplace. Learning could be asymmetric, that is, consumers may associate different weights with positive and negative experiences. Under this consumer model, we characterize the steady-state distribution of demand for retailers given that each retailer holds a constant in-stock service level. We then consider a noncooperative game in steady state between two retailers competing on the basis of their service levels. The demand distributions of retailers in this game are modeled using a multiplicative aggregate market-share model in which the mean demands are obtained from the steady-state results for individual purchases, but the model is simplified in other respects for tractability. Our model yields a unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium. We show that asymmetry in consumer learning has a significant impact on the optimal service levels, market shares, and profits of the retailers. When retailers have different costs, it also determines the extent of competitive advantage enjoyed by the lower-cost retailer.

Airlines’ competition in aircraft size and service frequency in duopoly markets

We are interested in how airlines make decisions on aircraft size and service frequency in a competitive environment. We apply three game-theoretic models to analyze airlines’ choices in duopoly markets: one short-haul market and one long-haul market. We study how airlines’ choices in a competitive environment may vary with flight distance, and also do sensitivity analysis to explore how the equilibrium results may change when air travel demand is higher, as it may happen in the future. Our research considers the competition factor in airlines’ decisions on both aircraft size and service frequency, and the impact of these decisions on both the cost and demand sides of airlines’ business. Different from previous studies, our research is based on cost, market share and demand models derived from empirical studies.

COMPETITIVENESS OF MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES AND TURKEY IN THE WORLD FISHERY MARKET: A CONSTANT MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to examine whether and to what extent the shares of selected countries' fishery exports in the world markets reflect their international competitiveness. The Constant Market Share (CMS) model, which decomposes export growth into some broad components (i.e., structural effects, market effects, commodity effects and competitive effects), is applied to examine this issue. The results of decomposition analysis revealed that structural factors have been more significant in explaining the growth of exports. The growth effects, though, appeared positive for each country, the exports of open economies like Canada, the United States, Iceland and Turkey benefited more from the growth of world exports. The analysis of commodity composition and market effects suggests that countries like Canada, the United States, Iceland and Turkey were pursuing the product differentiation policy and were penetrating in those markets, which have been growing relatively faster. These countries remained committed throughout the sample period (i.e., 1980–2000) to export their diversified products in fast-growing markets. The analysis of competitiveness effects, which are derived as a residual, show that Norway, Spain, the United States, Indonesia, Thailand, Chile and China were strong fishery exporters and increased their competitiveness during the sample period.

Modeling Movie Life Cycles and Market Share

We examine box-office sales in the context of a market share model. This is accomplished by developing a combination of a sliding-window logit model and a gamma diffusion pattern in a hierarchical Bayes framework. We show that accounting for the full choice set available every week not only increases the fit of weekly movie sales but also leads to parameter estimates that depict a richer picture of the movie industry. We show that movie studios appear to have a good understanding of the products they produce, knowing when to support them and when not to. We also show that the effect of the number of opening week screens is overestimated in traditional models. Our research indicates that actors have a direct and directors an indirect effect on consumers’ movie choice. Releasing a movie contemporaneously with other movies of the same genre adversely affects box-office performance all around. Releasing a movie against movies of the same Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) rating hurts its sales in the beginning, but there is a displacement effect, which leads to a less severe sales loss in the long run.

Recovering Stockkeeping-Unit-Level Preferences and Response Sensitivities from Market Share Models Estimated on Item Aggregates

The authors propose a new approach to obtaining stockkeeping-unit (SKU)-level preferences and response sensitivities. The authors distinguish an attribute-level model, in which the unit of analysis is the market share for an alternative created by aggregation (e.g., Colgate toothpaste), from a truly disaggregate SKU-level model, and they establish an analytical relationship between parameters that they obtain from the two models. The authors show that SKU-level parameters can be recovered by calculation from estimated attribute-level parameters, circumventing the need for direct estimation of the more complex SKU-level model. They calibrate the store data market share model using 98 weeks of data for ten brands and 168 SKUs of toothpaste. Rather than estimate 168 preference parameters (when there is an “outside” alternative in addition to the 168 “inside” ones), it is only necessary to estimate ten brand-preference parameters from which the 168 parameters can be computed, as long as share and marketing-mix data are available at the SKU level. Covariate effects, such as marketing-mix response parameters, can be recovered in a similar fashion. Holdout tests demonstrate superior predictive performance, and the authors discuss implications for the derivation of elasticities for new SKU introductions.

Retail Banking Loan Portfolio Equilibrium Mix : A Markov Chain Model Analysis

The variance analysis of actual loan sanctions with the non-documented method of loan allocation of the selected retail bank, over a period of 24 months, revealed that there is a scope to improve their income earnings. Realizing its importance Markov Chain Market Share model was applied to inter temporal data of loan disbursements of the selected bank. By applying Estimate Transition Matrix, scope for probability of loan switching among its types was calculated to suggest the probable mix of loan portfolio. From the results it was suggested that the loan proportions among various types were as follows: Housing (32.0 %), Others (28.1 %), Business (20.0 %) and Education (19.7 %). These proportions can be taken as guideline percentage within the government norms for the priority sector. Simulation studies were also done to calculate the expected income of interest using Markov proportions and compared with the actual interest earnings to prove the superiority of the model.

Impact of Globalization on International Trade between ASEAN-5 and China: Opportunities and Challenges

This paper evaluates the impact of China's WTO entry and the establishment of a free-trade agreement between China and ASEAN on the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). We examine the trade competition between the two regions using a market-share model and assess the impact of China's WTO entry on the ASEAN-5 with an exchange rate-tariff model, based on two-digit SITC data. It is found that for the period 1987 to 2000 the competition in trade only occurred between China and Singapore in manufacturing goods, while the competition between China and other four nations was in primary goods. The trade-widening opportunity between the two regions appears much larger than the competitive challenges for ASEAN-5 after the WTO entry of China and the establishment of FTA between ASEAN and China, impacts on different industries are evaluated.

Recovering SKU-level Preferences and Response Sensitivities from Market Share Models Estimated on Item Aggregates

We propose an alternative approach to obtaining SKU-level preferences and response sensitivities. An attribute-level model in which the unit of analysis is the market share for an alternative created by aggregation e.g., Colgate toothpaste) is distinguished from a truly disaggregate SKU-level model and develop an analytical relationship between parameters obtained from these two models is established. We show that the researcher can recover SKU-level parameters via calculation from estimated attribute-level parameters, circumventing the need for direct estimation of the more complex true SKU-level model. Our market share model is calibrated using 98 weeks of data for 10 brands and 168 SKUs in the toothpaste category. We show that instead of estimating 168 preference parameters (when we have an outside alternative in addition to the 168 inside ones), one need only estimate 10 brand preference parameters from which the 168 parameters can be computed as long as share and marketing mix data are available at the SKU level. Marketing mix response parameters can be recovered in a similar fashion. Estimation on holdout samples demonstrates superior predictive performance compared with other available methods. Implications for the derivation of SKU-level elasticities and forecasts of market share and response sensitivity for new items introduced to the category are discussed.

Setting Customer Expectation in Service Delivery: An Integrated Marketing-Operations Perspective

Service firms have increasingly been competing for market share on the basis of delivery time. Many firms now choose to set customer expectation by announcing their maximal delivery time. Customers will be satisfied if their perceived delivery times are shorter than their expectations. This gap model of service quality is used in this paper to study how a firm might choose a delivery-time commitment to influence its customer expectation, and delivery quality in order to maximize its market share. A market share model is developed to capture (1) the impact of delivery-time commitment and delivery quality on the firm's market share and (2) the impact of the firm's market share and process variability on delivery quality when there is a congestion effect. We show that the choice of the delivery-time commitment requires a proper balance between the level of service capacity and customer sensitivities to delivery-time expectation and delivery quality. We prove the existence of Nash equilibria in a duopolistic competition, and show that this delivery-time commitment game is analogous to a Prisoners' Dilemma.

Which Brands Gain Share from Which Brands? Inference from Store-Level Scanner Data

Market share models for weekly store-level data are useful to understand competitive structures by delivering own and cross price elasticities. These models can however not be used to examine which brands lose share to which brands during a specific period of time. It is for this purpose that we propose a new model, which does allow for such an examination. We illustrate the model for two product categories in two markets, and we show that our model has validity in terms of both in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting. We also demonstrate how our model can be used to decompose own and cross price elasticities to get additional insights into the competitive structure.

South Africa's International Competitiveness: A Product Level Analysis

As South Africa emerges from its Apartheid period, the evolution of its international trade is vital to the growth of the economy. This paper evaluates South Africa's trade performance in three essential markets, namely United States, Europe and Japan. It examines the nation's flexibility in the face of fluctuations in relative exchange rates in its markets. Using the Constant Market Share (CMS) model of international trade and the Rising Stars model, the particular areas of industrial structure in which South Africa is positioned to succeed are identified on the market as well as the product levels.

On deriving and validating comparative statics of a symmetric model of advertising competition

In this article, a market share attraction model is estimated using a data set of six manufacturers related to the ready-to-eat cereal industry in the US. For each year of the studied period, the market share of each firm is less than 50%, and these market shares are further apart from one another. In the reported application it is demonstrated, for the first time in the literature, that if model parameters change, all rivals in the industry should adjust their advertising spending in a manner consistent with the symmetric competitive structure for which all market shares are equal. Implications of this important finding are discussed. Scope and purpose Using a market share model of advertising competition and following a game theoretic approach, this study examines analytically and empirically the sensitivity of optimal advertising to changes in model parameters in a setting of symmetric competition. The results presented in the paper suggest that the proposed approach is useful for a firm to ascertain how to adapt its advertising strategy in response to changes in the market to maintain or enhance its position.

The benefits of using a market share model in a simulation aided planning game

During the realization of the CAESAR planning games, which has been supported by the European Leonardo da Vinci Programme, the use of modular planning games within a global scenario has shown to be very effective in concisely relaying educational content from the area of production management. In particular the close-to-reality situations have proven, time and again, to be highly motivating for seminar participants. In order to improve the transferability of acquired knowledge into practise, the ifab-Institute of Human and Industrial Engineering of the University of Karlsruhe has further developed the INSIGHTS-PPC planning game for production planning and control, in such a way that the planning tasks to be tackled are set in direct relation to market similar repercussions. This is realized in a new market share model. The market share model will be explained, paying particular attention to the practical consequences which come along with the implementation of such a model. Despite the potential of the developed market share model and the positive feedback from seminar participants there is a risk of the participants being diverted from the intended educational content, that of production logistic fundamentals and techniques, and of them perceiving the focus of the seminar as a relaying of market mechanisms.

Which Brands Gain Share from Which Brands? Inference from Store-Level Scanner Data

Market share models for weekly store-level data are useful to understand competitive structures by delivering own and cross price elasticities. These models can however not be used to examine which brands lose share to which brands during a specific period of time. It is for this purpose that we propose a new model, which does allow for such an examination. We illustrate the model for two product categories in two markets, and we provide share-switching estimates. We also demonstrate how our model can be used to decompose own and cross price elasticities.

NAFTA and the loss of U.S. market share by Brazil, 1992-2001

This article quantifies Brazil’s loss of U.S. market share to Mexico between 1992 and 2001 as a result of the entry into force of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). An expanded version of the constant market share model was used to calculate gains and losses in the competitiveness of Brazilian exports to the United States, by product and by competitor, for subperiods between 1992 and 2001. The model showed Mexico to be the country to which Brazil lost the most market share in the United States between 1992 and 1996. Exchange rate variations and preferential tariff treatment for Mexico on the U.S. market were equally important in Brazil’s loss of export competitiveness to Mexico.