Market Share Data Research Articles

Multi-Scale Economic Dynamics: The Micro-Macro Wealth Dynamics and the Two-Level Imbalances of the Euro Crisis

In this paper, we introduce a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) to model the micro-macro wealth dynamics of interactions between international enterprise competitiveness and the macroeconomic growth as an open system. The novelty of the approach is to postulate predator-prey interplay between domestic and non-domestic companies and link this interplay to GDP growth to construct a micro-macro wealth dynamic model. By analyzing the market share data of the retail industry of 13 largest Eurozone nations as a system, our model suggests that the predator-prey relation exists and non-domestic companies have a negative contribution to GDP growth. Such dynamics reveals two levels of imbalances: company competitiveness and national economic growth.

Evidence on anti-malarial and diagnostic markets in Cambodia to guide malaria elimination strategies and policies

BackgroundUnderstanding Cambodia’s anti-malarial and diagnostic landscape in 2015 is critical for informing and monitoring strategies and policies as Cambodia moves forward with national efforts to eliminate malaria. The aim of this paper is to present timely and key findings on the public and private sector anti-malarial and diagnostic landscape in Cambodia. This evidence can serve as a baseline benchmark for guiding implementation of national strategies as well as other regional initiatives to address malaria elimination activities.MethodsFrom August 17th to October 1st, 2015, a cross sectional, nationally-representative malaria outlet survey was conducted in Cambodia. A census of all public and private outlets with potential to distribute malaria testing and/or treatment was conducted among 180 communes. An audit was completed for all anti-malarials, malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and microscopy.ResultsA total of 26,664 outlets were screened, and 1303 outlets were eligible and interviewed. Among all screened outlets in the public sector, 75.9% of public health facilities and 67.7% of community health workers stocked both malaria diagnostic testing and a first-line artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). Among anti-malarial-stocking private sector outlets, 64.7% had malaria blood testing available, and 70.9% were stocking a first-line ACT. Market share data illustrate that most of the anti-malarials were sold or distributed through the private sector (58.4%), including itinerant drug vendors (23.4%). First-line ACT accounted for the majority of the market share across the public and private sectors (90.3%). Among private sector outlets stocking any anti-malarial, the proportion of outlets with a first-line ACT or RDT was higher among outlets that had reportedly received one or more forms of ‘support’ (e.g. reportedly received training in the previous year on malaria diagnosis [RDT and/or microscopy] and/or the national treatment guidelines for malaria) compared to outlets that did not report receiving any support (ACT: 82.1 and 60.6%, respectively; RDT: 78.2 and 64.0%, respectively).ConclusionThe results point to high availability and distribution of first-line ACT and widespread availability of malaria diagnosis, especially in the public sector. This suggests that there is a strong foundation for achieving elimination goals in Cambodia. However, key gaps in terms of availability of malaria commodities for case management must be addressed, particularly in the private sector where most people seek treatment. Continued engagement with the private sector will be important to ensure accelerated progress towards malaria elimination.

Forecasting compositional time series: A state space approach

A framework for the forecasting of composite time series, such as market shares, is proposed. Based on Gaussian multi-series innovations state space models, it relies on the log-ratio function to transform the observed shares (proportions) onto the real line. The models possess an unrestricted covariance matrix, but also have certain structural elements that are common to all series, which is proved to be both necessary and sufficient to ensure that the predictions of shares are invariant to the choice of base series. The framework includes a computationally efficient maximum likelihood approach to estimation, relying on exponential smoothing methods, which can be adapted to handle series that start late or finish early (new or withdrawn products). Simulated joint prediction distributions provide approximations to the required prediction distributions of individual shares and the associated quantities of interest. The approach is illustrated on US automobile market share data for the period 1961–2013.

Assessment of dietary intake of 10 intense sweeteners by the Italian population

The aim of the present study was to monitor the consumption of foods containing intense sweeteners present on the Italian food market and to investigate whether the Italian general population (aged >3–65+) was at risk for exceeding the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 10 intense sweeteners.A food label survey was performed in Rome (Italy), using market share data to identify the brands more representative of the market. A sample of 326 foods (table-top sweeteners included), beverages and food supplements containing intense sweeteners was collected and analyzed in order to establish the concentration levels. Intense sweeteners were only found in foods belonging to 8 sugar-free food categories out of 37 regulated. The dietary exposure was estimated using the tiered approach. Food consumption data from the last Italian national survey (INRAN-SCAI 2005-06) were combined with Maximum Levels at Tier 2, and with the actual concentration of sweeteners in the collected food products at Tier 3. The estimated exposure among consumers of sweeteners in Italy was well below the ADIs, in both tiers; non-alcoholic beverages, table-top sweeteners and food supplements were main contributors to exposure.

A Modified Lotka–Volterra Model for Diffusion and Substitution of Multigeneration DRAM Processing Technologies

We attempt to develop an effective forecasting model for the diffusion and substitution of multigeneration Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) processing technologies. We consider market share data and propose a modified Lotka–Volterra model, in which an additional constraint on the summation of market share is introduced. The mean absolute error is used to measure the accuracy of our market share predictions. Market share data in DRAM industries from quarter one (Q1) of 2005 to 2013 Q4 is collected to validate the prediction accuracy. Our model significantly outperforms other benchmark forecasting models of both revenue and market share data, including the Bass and Lotka–Volterra models. Compared to prior studies on forecasting the diffusion and substitution of multigeneration technologies, our model has two new perspectives: (1) allowing undetermined number of multigeneration technologies and inconsecutive adoption of new technologies and (2) requiring less data for forecasting newborn technologies.

Dragon Head Enterprises and the State of Agribusiness in China

This paper examines the political trajectory of agribusiness firms called ‘dragon head enterprises’ in China's ongoing agri‐food transformations. It starts from the premise that state and private elites in China are working together to consolidate a robust domestic agribusiness sector, as both an arena for national‐level rural and economic development, and a new frontier for access to resources and markets abroad. Through analyses of policy documents, market share data and ethnographic materials, I explore the organization and operation of dragon heads in the pork sector. My findings reveal that agribusiness development in China's pork sector is largely domestic, has a mixed state–private form and tends to marginalize the foreign‐based TNCs that have been the most powerful actors in the global agri‐food system to date. I argue that China is not only a destination for ‘external’ transnational capital, but also a site of agribusiness development in its own right. This has important implications for analysing capitalist transformations and for engaging global agri‐food politics.

PHP150 - Practical problems of comparator selection to assess cost-effectiveness of New Drugs for reimbursement decision: a qualitative study in South Korea

Under the positive drug listing system, pharmaceutical companies in Korea are required to provide cost-effectiveness (CE) evidence of newly approved drugs for listing on the National Health Insurance (NHI) drug formulary. It has been argued that selection criteria of comparator treatments suggested by the CE guideline are too limited and unrealistic to conduct a valid CE assessment. Therefore, our study was conducted to investigate types of practical problems in comparator selection in order to improve the validity of CE analysis. We conducted focus group interviews (FGI) with experts working in research-based drug companies, charged of submitting CE evidence of their products to NHI. Each participant received an interview question via an e-mail beforehand and presented their opinions at round-table discussion. Examples of the problems associated with selecting appropriate comparators identified from FGI are as follows: drugs with the same indication, but therapeutically nonequivalent, were used as comparators ; there is no guidance on whether to include off-label drugs as comparators; when off-patent products were selected as comparators, the price of the new drug was compared with the price of generic products rather than the initial price of the original products set during the patent period; it is difficult to obtain reliable market share data needed for selecting a comparator; and the best supportive care was selected as a comparator when there’s no appropriate treatment alternatives. We expect that the results of our investigation would contribute to improve the quality of CE guidelines in South Korea as well as other countries, and to improve assessment of the true value of pharmaceutical intervention.

Recent Developments in EU Merger Control

The decisions adopted during the period under consideration indicate that the Commission continues to resort to ‘reconstructed’ market share data, notably in several Phase I commitments cases. Another striking feature of the jurisprudence adopted in 2014 is the apparent emergence of a new tool to test closeness of competition—the so-called ‘aggressive competitor’ test. Generally, the Commission seems to pay more attention to claims by notifying parties that spare capacity in the hands of competitors would render unprofitable a price increase by the merged entity. The jurisprudence confirms that an inherited FRAND commitment negates the ability of the merged entity to pursue a foreclosure strategy.

Should Optimal Designers Worry About Consideration?

Consideration set formation using noncompensatory screening rules is a vital component of real purchasing decisions with decades of experimental validation. Marketers have recently developed statistical methods that can estimate quantitative choice models that include consideration set formation via noncompensatory screening rules. But is capturing consideration within models of choice important for design? This paper reports on a simulation study of a vehicle portfolio design when households screen over vehicle body style built to explore the importance of capturing consideration rules for optimal designers. We generate synthetic market share data, fit a variety of discrete choice models to the data, and then optimize design decisions using the estimated models. Model predictive power and design profitability relative to ideal profits are compared as the amount of market data available increases. We find that even when estimated compensatory models provide relatively good predictive accuracy, they can lead to suboptimal design decisions when the population uses consideration behavior; convergence of compensatory models to noncompensatory behavior is likely to require unrealistic amounts of data; and modeling heterogeneity in noncompensatory screening is more valuable than heterogeneity in compensatory tradeoffs. This supports the claim that designers should carefully identify consideration behaviors before optimizing product portfolios. We also find that higher model predictive power does not necessarily imply more profitable design decisions; different model forms can provide “descriptive” rather than “predictive” information that is useful for design.

An Early Development Budget Impact Model for the Use of Melatonin in the Treatment and Prevention of Osteoporosi

In the U.S., there are approximately 9 million adults with osteoporosis (OP) and an additional 43 million at-risk. By 2030, this number is expected to increase to 68 million adults. The economic impact is estimated to be $23 billion by 2025. Current drug therapies either decrease bone resorption (e.g., bisphosphonates) or stimulate bone formation (e.g., teriparatide). Melatonin may be a potential treatment option because research has shown it impacts bone metabolism by promoting osteoblast differentiation and activity and by suppressing osteoclast differentiation and activity. As shown in the Melatonin Osteoporosis Prevention Study (MOPS; NCT01152580), melatonin improved bone health in perimenopausal women by renormalizing bone marker turnover. Also, it is well-tolerated and has a high safety profile. Given the chronic nature of OP, coupled with high treatment costs, economic evaluation of melatonin with existing treatments could be very useful for those who manage and plan healthcare budgets. The objective of this work was to determine the budgetary impact of the addition of melatonin to treat and prevent OP from a payer perspective. A 1-year budget impact model with a hypothetical plan population of 1 million was utilized. Whole sale acquisition costs of melatonin and comparators were taken from Red Book; market share and prevalence data were obtained from the literature. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess if changes in market share and drug costs affected the results. All costs are in 2013 U.S. dollars. The introduction of melatonin produced as Per Member Per Month (PMPM) change of -$0.11 for OP and a PMPM of -$0.20 for osteopenia. In conclusion, the addition of melatonin to a formulary will provide substantial cost offsets to the payer in the treatment and prevention of OP under the assumption that the effectiveness of melatonin is equal to its comparators.

A modified Lotka–Volterra model for competition forecasting in Taiwan’s retail industry

The retail industry is an important component of the supply chain of the goods and services that are consumed daily and competition has been increasing among retailers worldwide. Thus, forecasting the degree of retail competition has become an important issue. However, seasonal patterns and cycles in the level of retail activity dramatically reduce forecasting accuracy. This paper attempts to develop an improved forecasting methodology for retail industry competition subject to seasonal patterns and cycles. Using market share data and the moving average method, a modified Lotka–Volterra model with an additional constraint on the summation of market share is proposed. Furthermore, the mean absolute error is used to measure the forecasting accuracy of the market share. Real Taiwanese retail data from 1999 is used to validate the forecasting accuracy of our modified Lotka–Volterra model. Our methodology successfully mitigates errors from seasonal patterns and cycles and outperforms other benchmark models. These benchmarks include the Bass and Lotka–Volterra models for revenue or market share data, with or without using the moving average method. Our methodology assists the retail industry in the development of management strategies and the determination of investment timing. We also demonstrate how the Lotka–Volterra model can be used to forecast the degree of industry competition.

Discriminating between behaviour using market data from panels

Considerable research exists on stochastic models of switching behaviour that uses sequences of individual-level purchase data. While at the individual level, sample size and sequence length are limiting factors, at the aggregate level, heterogeneity with respect to purchase sequences may assist in interpreting results. The authors propose an approach to discriminate between the switching behaviour of variety seeking, indifference and reinforcement. Only the proportion of 100% loyal customers, market share data and an estimation of the promotional effect -information all available from consumer panel data - are necessary to fit the model.

Originator and generic medicine: pricing and market share

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of generic medicine competition on the market share growth and pricing of originator brand medicine in the South African private pharmaceutical market.Design/methodology/approachRegression analysis is applied to market share data of originator brand drugs that have been exposed to competition from generic substitutes, based on an agency model of the prescribing physician, the pharmacist or the medical scheme.FindingsThe results indicate that the price of an originator brand medicine relative to the weighted average price of its generics has a significant negative impact on the change of its market share. Investigations into the prices of the originator brands, in relation to the number of generic equivalents in the market, indicate that the number of generics available in a specific market has a significant positive impact on the relative price of originators, thereby making originators relatively more expensive compared to their generic competitors. At the same time, the results show that the absolute price of the originator brand medicines declines as the number of generic equivalents in the market increases.Practical implicationsThe results indicate that, for all modules pooled together, the relative price of the originator product to that of the generic equivalent, is responsible for a significant reduction in the relative change in the market share of the originator medicine. When analysed on the level of anatomical class, or the individual molecule, results are not consistent. For affordable healthcare, the results support the reduction in barriers to entry for generic medicine. Furthermore, the results support education and incentives for doctors, pharmacists and end‐users to develop generic alternatives as trusted brands in their own right.Originality/valueThis study quantitatively assesses the effect that generic medicine competition exerts on the market share of originator medicines in South Africa.

Detecting Market Competition in the Japanese Beer Industry

We investigate various characteristics, including firm-level panel data, of the Japanese beer market over time (over 30 years) to determine the level and nature of competition. Next, we conduct two sets of regressions using market share and firm-level accounting data in a variation of Boone’s (Econ J 118:1245–1261, 2008a; J Inst Theor Econ 164:587–611, 2008b) measure of competition. While traditional indicators (very high market concentration, little or no overt price competition) suggest that Japanese beer firms do not compete, Boone-style regressions yield strong evidence of competitive behavior.

A Recurrent, Multistate Outbreak of Salmonella Serotype Agona Infections Associated with Dry, Unsweetened Cereal Consumption, United States, 2008

An outbreak of Salmonella enterica serotype Agona infections associated with nationwide distribution of cereal from Company X was identified in April 2008. This outbreak was detected using PulseNet, the national molecular subtyping network for foodborne disease surveillance, which coincided with Company X's voluntary recall of unsweetened puffed rice and wheat cereals after routine product sampling yielded Salmonella Agona. A case patient was defined as being infected with the outbreak strain of Salmonella Agona, with illness onset from 1 January through 1 July 2008. Case patients were interviewed using a standard questionnaire, and the proportion of ill persons who reported eating Company X puffed rice cereal was compared with Company X's market share data using binomial testing. The Minnesota Department of Agriculture inspected the cereal production facility and collected both product and environmental swab samples. Routine surveillance identified 33 case patients in 17 states. Of 32 patients interviewed, 24 (83%) reported eating Company X puffed rice cereal. Company X puffed rice cereal represented 0.063% of the total ready-to-eat dry cereal market share in the United States at the time of the investigation. Binomial testing suggested that the proportion of exposed case patients would not likely occur by chance (P < 0.0001). Of 17 cereal samples collected from case patient homes for laboratory testing, 2 (12%) yielded Salmonella Agona indistinguishable from the outbreak strain. Twelve environmental swabs and nine product samples from the cereal plant yielded the outbreak strain of Salmonella Agona. Company X cereal was implicated in a similar outbreak of Salmonella Agona infection in 1998 with the same outbreak strain linked to the same production facility. We hypothesize that a recent construction project at this facility created an open wall near the cereal production area allowing reintroduction of Salmonella Agona into the product, highlighting the resilience of Salmonella in dry food production environments.

A Measure of Dynamic Market Performance

This paper proposes an easy-to-implement dynamic measure of market performance over time for various selling units (e.g., sales territories, sales regional offices, or the whole sales organization). It may be used as a diagnosis tool by comparing the market performances of various units, taking into account the conditions prevailing in the different markets (such as competition relative effectiveness, sales penetration, or local market fluctuations). Combining sales volume, market share, and profit variations data into an Index of Sales Unit Market Performance (ISUMP), provides managerial guidance for selling units’ evaluation or resource allocations among units. This index may account for a firm’s selected market strategy (market penetration, market skimming, etc.). Implementation in a large North American insurance company is reported.

USDA Monitors Levels of Added Sodium in Commercial Packaged and Restaurant Foods

This manuscript describes progress by the Nutrient Data Laboratory (NDL) in monitoring sodium in processed and prepared foods frequently consumed by the U.S. population. Recent concerns by the U.S. public health community about the intake of sodium by Americans have led ARS, USDA to develop a plan to monitor the levels of sodium in highly consumed commercial packaged and restaurant foods. NDL scientists worked with USDA's Food Surveys Research Group (FSRG) to identify 125 Sentinel Foods, to serve as indicators for assessment of change in the sodium content in the food supply. For each food (e.g., cheese pizza) NDL used market share data to identify the predominant brands and types of foods (e.g., frozen cheese pizza, restaurant pizza) to be monitored for changes in the sodium level over time. Periodically, nutrient values for frequently consumed foods will be updated by chemical analysis or label checks. Estimates will be compared to existing values in the National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference (SR). Since 2010, about 140 foods have been sampled and analyzed by NDL contractors. NDL will continue to generate new sodium data which will be disseminated in the successive releases of the SR. Accurate and current data for sodium in processed foods will support the assessment of changes in sodium in foods as well as the assessment of sodium intake by the U.S. population in the years ahead.

Cholesterol and vitamin D content of eggs in the U.S. retail market

Nationwide sampling in the U.S. of whole large eggs, to update values in the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference (SR) (http://www.ars.usda.gov/nutrientdata), was conducted in 2000–2001 and in 2010. Retail cartons of large eggs were obtained from 12 supermarket locations using statistical sampling plans based on market share and census data. Cholesterol was analyzed at three laboratories using standard methods involving gas chromatography of the saponified total lipid extract. Vitamin D3 and 25-OH-vitamin D3 (2010 samples only) were analyzed by HPLC and UHPLC–MS/MS. Quality control materials were included to validate the accuracy and precision of measurements. The mean cholesterol content decreased 51mg/100g (12%; p<0.0001), from 423mg/100g in 2000–2001 to 372 (range 344–405) in 2010. Over the same period, average vitamin D3 increased by 60%, to 2.05μg [80IU]/100g (range 0.97–12.1). Samples from 2010 contained 0.65μg 25-OH-D3/100g (range 0.43–1.32). The disparate vitamin D (and cholesterol) content of eggs sampled from different locations may reflect industry efforts to modify poultry feed or supplements to affect the nutrient profile of eggs. Cholesterol and vitamin D3 data from this work were included in SR release 23, and support food consumption surveys, food and nutrition policy, and consumer education.

Modeling patronage shift to a new entrant for predicting disproportionate losses for incumbent outlets

Abstract In a retail market where market competition is intensifying due to increases in the numbers of outlets, an understanding of patronage-shifting behavior is critical to improving the prediction accuracy of changes in the market shares of existing outlets. Our objective is to understand consumers’ patronage shift patterns in response to a new outlet. This study develops a patronage shift model by incorporating outlet characteristics which affect the choice set formation of consumers. Factors of interest to us are the accessibility of the new outlet, outlet awareness, and inter-outlet substitutability. An empirical analysis of the motion picture exhibition industry shows that (i) patronage loss is significantly disproportionate across incumbent movie theaters due to the asymmetric substitution effect, (ii) substitutability is more crucial than accessibility in accurately capturing disproportionate substitution patterns at the market level, (iii) the probability of a consumer being aware of a new theater increases gradually, (iv) modeling the growth pattern of outlet awareness plays a significant role in representing actual market responses more accurately, and (v) patronage patterns estimated by the proposed model from aggregate market share data are consistent with actual consumer responses.

Analisis Kelayakan Investasi Perbaikan Kualitas Pelayanan Di AJB Bumi Putera 1912 Cabang Sidoarjo

Customer satisfaction is the main thing that must be considered by every company, both service and production, so customers do not switch keperusahaan competitors, and customer satisfaction always changing according to the era or the era of human development. In terms of customer satisfaction that this changing, we need quality improvement program. This study used the method ROQ (Retrun On Quality), namely, the methods used for decision making will improve the quality of the proposed program, can be used or not. ROQ very to influence by the amount of customer satisfaction, customer retention and cost of the proposed program of quality improvement. In determining the quality improvement program proposal, use graph mapping IP From research result shows an increase in customer satisfaction and customer retention, each of which is 80.41% to 81.22% and 24.56% to 28.56%, which reached the stage These proposals deserve diimpelementasikan quality improvement program. By using the data market growth, market share data, the average benefits agents and the interest rate at the time of planning time, then the calculation can be done ROQ.ROQ calculations, requiring the calculation of NPV, NPV0, NPVAS conducted as a planning horizon of 5 periods ahead. From the calculation results, obtained NPV Rp.152.636.602.289, 00; NPV0 for Rp.145.407.658.197,00; and NPVAS of Rp.3.573.189.670, 00; so ROQ value of 2.0231. The result was states that the proposal is feasible quality improvement program to be implemented, until rate reached 46.457%.