Market Risk Exposure Research Articles

Returns of Dividend vs. Non-Dividend-Paying Stocks and Their Relations With Financial Distress and Market Risk Measures

This study investigates whether risks and returns of dividend-paying stocks differ from non-dividend-paying stocks. It also examines the financial health and market risk exposure of dividend vs. non-dividend paying firms. The descriptive statistics show that average risks and return of non-dividend paying stocks are higher than dividend-paying stocks. However, tests of equality of means and variances fail to support the conventional view that dividend paying stocks’ returns and risks differ from non-dividend paying stocks over time. The Altman financial stress test shows that the average Z-score of non-dividend-paying stocks is higher and is more volatile than non-dividend paying firms. However, the results strongly reject the argument that dividend and non-dividend paying firms are equally exposed to financial risks. Furthermore, the tests of equality of mean and variance of market risk of dividend paying vs. non-dividend paying stocks are strongly rejected.

Testing Applicability of Value at Risk Models in Stocks Markets

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of Value at Risk (VaR) method based on two wide spread approaches, historical simulation and Risk Metrics, before and after the sub-prime crisis in the context of developed and emerging capital markets. We present results on both VaR 1% and VaR 5% on a one-day horizon for Belex 15 and SAX. For comparative purposes, the paper also focuses on the DJIA and the STOXX Eastern Europe Total Market Index, an index representative of emerging European stock markets. In order to validate accuracy of VaR results we employ different back test techniques. Results indicate that the relative performance of VaR as a measure of market risk significantly underestimates the true level of market risk in Serbian stock market, in contrast to Slovak, where standard VaR approaches accurately capture market risk exposure. Results also provide evidence that the characteristic of stock markets and their asset returns in combination with the desired confidence level and risk horizon determine how well a certain approach performs on a certain stock market. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n9p297

Tempered stable models for Islamic finance asset management

Purpose – In Islamic finance (IF), the safety-first rule of investing (hifdh al mal) is held to be of utmost importance. In view of the instability in the global financial markets, the IF portfolio manager (mudharib) is committed, according to Sharia, to make use of advanced models and reliable tools. This paper seeks to address these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the limitations of the standard models used in the IF industry are reviewed. Then, a framework was set forth for a reliable modeling of the IF markets, especially in extreme events and highly volatile periods. Based on the empirical evidence, the framework offers an improved tool to ameliorate the evaluation of Islamic stock market risk exposure and to reduce the costs of Islamic risk management. Findings – Based on the empirical evidence, the framework offers an improved tool to ameliorate the evaluation of Islamic stock market risk exposure and to reduce the costs of Islamic risk management. Originality/value – In IF, the portfolio manager – mudharib – according to Sharia, should ensure the adequacy of the mathematical and statistical tools used to model and control portfolio risk. This task became more complicated because of the increase in risk, as measured via market volatility, during the financial crisis that began in the summer of 2007. Sharia condemns the portfolio manager who demonstrates negligence and may hold him accountable for losses for failing to select the proper analytical tools. As Sharia guidelines hold the safety-first principle of investing rule (hifdh al mal) to be of utmost importance, the portfolio manager should avoid speculative investments and strategies that would lead to significant losses during periods of high market volatility.

Do local or global risk factors explain the size, value and momentum trading pay-offs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange?

This article shows that momentum trading fails to generate significant profits beyond the 1-month holding period on the Warsaw Stock Exchange over the years 2002–2011. Size and value strategies are efficacious but have varying magnitudes over time: size premium diminishes in the second subperiod. Domestic, European and global pricing model specifications are challenged with strategy pay-offs to test the rational explanation for the profitability of these investment styles. The performance of the buy side of size and value strategies is captured by the market risk exposure but both single- and multi-factor models leave significant alphas of large and value portfolios. Domestic models outperform their nondomestic specifications: European CAPM performs better than its global analogue while nondomestic three-factor models perform similarly. Tail size and value portfolios are characterized by negative but mostly insignificant loadings on European and global nonmarket risk factors that emerge from the negative ...

The Profi tability of Size, Value and Momentum Trading Strategies - Evidence from the Polish Stock Market

This paper shows that momentum trading fails to generate significant profits beyond the one-month holding period on the Warsaw Stock Exchange over the years 2002-2011. Size and value strategies are efficacious but have varying magnitudes over time: Size premium diminishes in the second subperiod. Domestic, European and global pricing model specifications are challenged with strategy payoffs to test the rational explanation for the profitability of these investment styles. The performance of the buy-side of size and value strategies is captured by the market risk exposure but both single- and multi-factor models leave significant alphas of large and value portfolios. Domestic models outperform their non-domestic specifications: European CAPM performs better than its global analogue while non-domestic three-factor models perform similarly. Tail size and value portfolios are characterised by negative but mostly insignificant loadings on European and global non-market risk factors that emerge from the negative relationship between Polish, European and global currency-adjusted SMB and HML. It is further shown that after adjustment for fluctuations between USD and PLN the magnitude and correlation structure between local and global risk factors change significantly.

EVALUATING MEASURES OF MARKET RISK IN CIRCUMSTANCES OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS – EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM FIVE COUNTRIES

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate performance of value-at-risk (VaR) produced by two risk models: historical simulation and Risk Metrics. We perform three backtest: unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage. We present results on both VaR 1% and VaR 5% on a one-day horizon for the following indices: S&P 500, DAX, SAX, PX and Belex 15. Our results show that Historical simulation 500 days rolling window approach satisfies unconditional coverage for all tested indices, while Risk Metrics has many rejection cases. On the other hand Risk Metrics model satisfies independence backtest for three indices, while Historical simulation has rejected more times. Based on our strong criteria to accept accuracy of VaR models only if both unconditional coverage and independence properties are satisfied, results indicate that during the crisis period all tested VaR models underestimate the true level of market risk exposure.

VaR and time‐varying volatility: a comparative study of three international portfolios

PurposeThis study aims to evaluate the market risk exposure of three international equity portfolios using value‐at‐risk (VaR). This risk metric calculates the worst case loss for a business in the course of its daily transactions. To ensure that the calculated VaR reflects emerging risk characteristics, this paper introduces an approach that incorporates time‐varying volatility.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the GARCH technique to calculate the volatility metric with which VaR estimates are obtained. The out‐of‐sample performance of the VaRs is then assessed by comparing them to the actual market risk losses in that period.FindingsEmpirical results show that regardless of market conditions, the VaR calculated with this (GARCH) approach is more robust and more reliable than the traditional methods. Pursuant to the banking regulation on market risk capital stipulated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the out‐of‐sample VaRs are at least equal to actual daily market risk losses at the 99 percent confidence level.Practical implicationsThe key goal of banking regulation is to ensure that financial firms have sufficient capital for the types of risks they take. Determining the right amount of capital requires these firms to first estimate their worst case loss, which is the value‐at‐risk. The approach to the calculation of VaR introduced in this paper enhances the accuracy in the measurement of market risk capital for financial institutions.Originality/valueThis paper recognizes that for VaR to fully account for market risk losses, the risk metric must be correctly measured. The unparalleled approach in this paper of incorporating time‐varying volatility in VaR calculations offers banking institutions a more reliable means of determining their capital adequacy.

Asset allocation in private wealth management: Theory versus practice

This study analyzes the responses to a representative survey of wealth advisors on private wealth management practices, and compares the advisors’ views with academic research in household finance. This study demonstrates that many wealth managers do not apply novel insights proposed by financial economists when advising their clients. Many practitioners focus on managing only the market risk exposure of their clients’ portfolios. Although financial research has stressed the importance of incorporating human capital, planned future expenditures and the investment time horizon into the investor’s asset allocation, these aspects are neglected by most practitioners.

Asset Allocation in Private Wealth Management: Theory Versus Practice

This study analyzes the responses to a representative survey of wealth advisors on private wealth management practices, and compares the advisors’ views to academic research in household finance. This study demonstrates that many wealth managers do not apply novel insights proposed by financial economists when advising their clients. Many practitioners focus on managing only the market risk exposure of their clients’ portfolios. Although financial research has stressed the importance of incorporating human capital, planned future expenditures and the investment time horizon into the investor’s asset allocation, these aspects are neglected by most practitioners.

On the appraisal of LVaR throughout the close-out period: an investment management outlook from recent global financial crisis

In this paper, we launch a practical modus-operandi for the assessment of potential market risk exposures for financial trading portfolios by providing an investment management perspective from recent global financial crisis. This proposed tactic is based on the renowned concept of Liquidity-Adjusted Value-at-Risk (LVaR) along with the innovation of a risk-engine algorithm that can estimate LVaR for both long and short-sales positions. Our wide-ranging risk model can conduct LVaR analysis under normal and severe market conditions besides it takes into account the effects of illiquidity of equity securities, under crisis-driven circumstances, throughout the close-out period. In order to clarify the accurate use of LVaR and stress-testing methods, real-world simulation scenarios of trading risk management are presented for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) financial markets. The developed methodology and risk assessment algorithms can aid in advancing risk management practices in emerging markets and particularly in the wake of recent credit crunch.

Risk Management in Trading and Investment Portfolios

The aim of this article is to bridge the gap in equity trading risk management literatures and particularly from the perspective of emerging and illiquid markets, such as in the context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) financial markets. In this article, we demonstrate a practical approach for the measurement and control of market risk exposure for financial trading portfolios that contain several illiquid equity securities during the unwinding (close-out) period. This approach is based on the renowned concept of Value-at-Risk (VaR) along with the development of an optimisation risk algorithm utilising matrix-algebra technique. Our thorough asset market risk modelling-algorithm can simultaneously handle VaR analysis under normal and severe market conditions, besides it takes into account the effects of illiquidity and short-sales of traded equity securities. In order to illustrate the proper use of VaR and stress-testing methods, real-world structured modelling techniques of trading risk management are presented for the GCC financial markets. To this end, comprehensive simulation case studies are accomplished with the objective of constructing a realistic framework for trading risk measurement and control in addition to the instigation of a risk optimisation algorithm-process for the computation of maximum authorised VaR risk-budgeting limits. JEL Classification: C10, C13, G20, G28

Hedge Fund Market Risk Exposures: A Survey

Résumé Cet article présente un résumé des études récentes consacrées à l’attribution de la performance des Hedge Funds. Ces fonds poursuivent des stratégies dynamiques à effet de levier important et investissent massivement en dérivés et en actifs non-liquides. En conséquence, ils présentent des relations linéaires et non-linéaires avec les principaux indices de marchés. Cette étude examine les facteurs de risque capables de capturer les co-mouvements linéaires et non-linéaires des Hedge Funds avec les indices de marché. Ce papier discute essentiellement de la significativité de facteurs optionnels et distributionnels. Les primes multi-moments amélioreraient considérablement le pouvoir explicatif des modèles généralement utilisés dans l’évaluation des rendements des Hedge Funds.

A Universal Stochastic Model-Based Enterprise-Wide Market Risk Framework for Institutions with Illiquid Long-Term Liabilities

A universal stochastic model-based framework for evaluating the enterprise-wide market risk of financial institutions such as insurers, banks and defined benefit pension funds is presented in this paper. A consistent market risk framework is important given the similarity of some of the market risk exposures carried on the balance sheets of these entities. Most importantly, the proposed risk analysis framework includes a coherent methodology for determining a minimally sufficient time horizon for the adequate measurement of the aggregate market risk of an asset-liability portfolio with a specified holding period. Given that capital is calibrated to the unique holding periods of individual institutions, rather than an arbitrarily determined fixed period for all institutions, exposure of the financial system to systemic risk and procyclicality should also be commensurately reduced.

Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates

We use univariate and multivariate GARCH-type models to investigate the properties of conditional volatilities of stock returns and exchange rates, as well as their empirical relationships. Taking three European stock markets and two popular US dollar exchange rates as case study, our results show strong evidence of asymmetry and long memory in the conditional variances of all the series considered. In multivariate settings we find that bilateral relationships between stock and foreign exchange markets are highly significant for France and Germany. Moreover, both the univariate FIAPARCH and bivariate CCC-FIAPARCH models provide more accurate in-sample estimates and out-of-sample forecasts than the other competing GARCH-based specifications in almost all cases. Finally, there is evidence to support the suitability of the FIAPARCH model in forecasting portfolio's market risk exposure and the existence of diversification benefits between stock and foreign exchange markets.

Bayesian Value-at-Risk with product partition models

In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian methodology for Value-at-Risk computation based on parametric Product Partition Models. Value-at-Risk is a standard tool for measuring and controlling the market risk of an asset or portfolio, and is also required for regulatory purposes. Its popularity is partly due to the fact that it is an easily understood measure of risk. The use of Product Partition Models allows us to remain in a Normal setting even in the presence of outlying points, and to obtain a closed-form expression for Value-at-Risk computation. We present and compare two different scenarios: a product partition structure on the vector of means and a product partition structure on the vector of variances. We apply our methodology to an Italian stock market data set from Mib30. The numerical results clearly show that Product Partition Models can be successfully exploited in order to quantify market risk exposure. The obtained Value-at-Risk estimates are in full agreement with Maximum Likelihood approaches, but our methodology provides richer information about the clustering structure of the data and the presence of outlying points.

Market risk exposure of merger arbitrage in Australia

AbstractWe investigate the risk‐return characteristics of merger arbitrage in the Australian market for corporate control, whereby hedge fund managers acquire companies subject to a takeover offer. On average, a strategy of buying target companies and short‐selling bidders making scrip offers would have generated an annual return of 30 per cent from 1985 to 2008, excluding transaction costs, compared to the return on the broader market of 12 per cent. However, performance is not market neutral, being positively associated with market returns during downturns and inversely related to market movements during rising markets. The payoffs to this strategy are analogous to a short straddle, whereby the investor is short a call and put option at the same exercise price. These results are consistent with large‐sample evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom and have not previously been documented in Australia, in which prior evidence is based only on cash deals during the 1990s.

Does stock market development always improve firm-level financing? Evidence from Tunisia

The question of whether or not increased stock market size allows for improved financing conditions for firms in emerging markets is an important one for policy-making. This paper seeks to investigate this issue by analyzing whether increases in market-level liquidity have indeed trickled down to individual firms over the last decade of stock market development in Tunisia, a fast-growing Mediterranean emerging market. We develop time varying liquidity scores for all firms listed in the Tunisian market over the 1997–2009 period and analyze the extent to which market development, firm-level characteristics and risk exposure affect the magnitude and the distribution of liquidity using a set of fixed effect panel regressions. Our results suggest that massive increases in value traded have created market congestion, thereby increasing the costs of trading, in a context of persistently low efficiency and increased international integration. The main implications of this process are (i) market-level development and international integration are not sufficient conditions to ease access to finance for local firms, (ii) further reforms in the Tunisian market should focus on diversifying corporate ownership and improving the disclosure of information, and (iii) international investors seeking diversification in Tunisia should be aware of a significant illiquidity risk.

The Informational Content Of The VaR Measures Associated With The Trading Activities Of Canadian Banks

This paper examines the informational content and the usefulness of Canadian banks' market risk public disclosures. Risk managers use Value at Risk (VAR) as a measure of the dollar amount of a large potential loss to a bank's trading income and common shareholders' equity as a result of extreme and low-probability market price changes. Five different VAR metrics (high, low, range of estimates, average and end-of-period values) are now published and recognized benchmarks for measuring market risk exposure, and its potential impact on a bank's financial position. At the explicit request of regulators, financial analysts and competitive pressures, most large commercial banks in North America are now reporting the five forms of VAR numbers described above in their quarterly and annual financial reports. To examine preliminary evidence on the informational content of such public financial disclosures, we composed a sample of seven of Canada's largest commercial banks. In particular, we investigate if "ex ante" VAR numbers help financial analysts, investors, and regulators to explain the subsequent variability of commercial banks' trading income and of their ratio of market value to book value of common shareholders' equity over time.

Time series analysis for financial market meltdowns

There appears to be a consensus that the recent instability in global financial markets may be attributable in part to the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, it is alleged that current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks associated with large adverse stock price behavior. In this paper, we first discuss the limitations of classical time series models for forecasting financial market meltdowns. Then we set forth a framework capable of forecasting both extreme events and highly volatile markets. Based on the empirical evidence presented in this paper, our framework offers an improvement over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during distressed market periods.

On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds

We evaluate the return performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds using multi-factor models and a conditional CAPM that allows for time-varying risk. Differences in the bearish posture of these mutual funds result in different performance characteristics. Returns to long-short mutual funds vary with the market, returns to market-neutral mutual funds are uncorrelated with the market and returns to bear mutual funds are negatively correlated. Using the conditional CAPM we document significant changes in the market-risk exposure of the most bearish of these funds during different economic climates. We then assess the flow-performance relationship for up to 60 months following up and down markets and find that investors direct flows towards market-neutral and bearish funds for several months after down markets. Market-neutral funds provide a down market hedge, but bear funds do not generate the returns that investors hope for.