Transport Market Research Articles

Theoretical aspects of strategic development subjects of the air transport industry

The methodological principles of studying systemic, strategic interactions of subjects in the air transport industry in conditions of global challenges are not just considered but emphasized for their crucial role in understanding and navigating the complexities of the industry. Peculiarities of the interaction between airlines and airports are determined, which is related to the specifics of the organizational and management support of this process, which include instability and dynamism of the air transportation market, significant degree of differentiation of air transport services by macro-regions; high level of competition between air carriers and significant market fluctuations; low competition among airports; multivariate combination and comprehensive use of the potential and competences of airlines and airports in the performance of passenger and cargo air transportation. The article substantiates the peculiarities of the interaction of the air transport industry entities related to the specifics of organizational and managerial support of this process. The functions, works, and services performed by the enterprises of the air transport industry in the interaction process and the functional division of the main activities by the responsibility of the performers - airlines and airports - are systematized. A methodical approach to the study of strategic interaction of air transport industry entities in the context of global challenges is proposed, consisting of a logical sequence of the following stages: analysis and evaluation of functional characteristics and competencies of airlines and airports; analysis of environmental factors; assessment of problems and advantages of strategic interaction of airlines and airports; substantiation of strategic principles of interaction between airlines and airports; study of strategic alternatives and decision-making. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it considers the specific features of organizational and managerial support for the interaction of industry players. The most acute problems of the strategic development of the air transport industry of Ukraine and promising areas of interaction between air carriers and airports in the context of global challenges are not just identified but highlighted to keep the audience informed and aware of the current state of the industry. Keywords: air transport industry, air carriers, airports, airlines, strategy, a system of interaction, systemic, strategic interaction, strategic development, global challenges.

The competitiveness of mega liner shipping companies on Eurasia routes: consider the impact of the CR-Express services

ABSTRACT The CR-Express has enhanced international container transport services and altered the competitive landscape of mega liner shipping companies (MLSCs) in the Eurasia container transport market. Given the continuous growth of the CR-Express’s market share, this study establishes a novel evaluation system to assess the competitiveness of the MLSCs, measuring their performance in the Eurasia container transport market and analyzing how their competitiveness transforms when they offer CR-Express service. To accurately calculate the four competitiveness indicators—namely spatial coverage, level of route customization, directness of shipping, and alternative routes—we constructed complex networks representing the Eurasia container transport system of the evaluated MLSCs across various topologies and conducted complex network analysis. The evaluation results indicate that Maersk, CMA CGM, and COSCO are the three most competitive liner shipping companies in the Eurasia container transport market before Maersk and COSCO’s involving in the CR-Express. The CR-Express has significantly bolstered the competitiveness of Maersk and COSCO, with COSCO surpassing Maersk and claiming the top globally after offering CR-Express service. However, the CR-Express, launched incrementally by the MLSCs, have not been seamlessly integrated into their overall maritime shipping networks, resulting in a sparse overall container transport network.

Increasing supply chain resiliency through equilibrium pricing and stipulating transportation quota regulation

Supply chain disruption can occur for a variety of reasons, including natural disasters or market dynamics for which resilient strategies should be designed. If the disruption is profound and has dire consequences for the economy, it calls for the regulator’s intervention to minimize the impact for the betterment of the society. This paper investigates the minimum quota regulation on transport amounts of a shipping company with limited capacity that transports a group of products with heterogeneous transportation and production costs and prices. An interesting example can be found in the North American rail transportation market, where rail capacity is used for a variety of products and commodities, such as oil and grains. Similarly, in Europe, the supply chain for grain produced in Ukraine is disrupted by the Ukraine war and the blockade of the maritime transport routes. This siege puts pressure on the rail transport capacity of Ukraine and its neighboring countries to the west, which needs to be shared to ship a variety of products, including grains, military, and humanitarian supplies. Such situations require the proper execution of government intervention for effective management of limited transport capacity to avoid rippling effects throughout the economy. We propose mathematical models and solutions for market players and the government in a Canadian case study. Subsequently, the conditions that justify government intervention are identified, and an algorithm is presented to obtain the optimum minimum quotas.

Consortium blockchain in Shipping: Impacts on industry and social welfare

This paper investigates the effects of consortium blockchain on the shipping industry. We model a market with two competing shipping lines and a port. We compare three scenarios: no blockchain (NB), partial blockchain consisting of only the two shipping lines (PB), and full blockchain consisting of both the shipping lines and the port (FB). Using game theory, we analyze how the consortium blockchain affects the shipping market and social welfare. We find that adding more players (especially the port) to the consortium blockchain does not always benefit everyone. The port gains from joining the consortium blockchain if its adoption cost is low. But compared with PB, FB generally decreases the profit of the shipping line with information advantage. PB enhances social welfare regardless of the blockchain adoption cost, while FB does so only under fierce competition between the shipping lines. Moreover, both PB and FB increase the volatility of the shipping freight rates, although they do not affect the volatility of shipping outputs or the port charges. Our analysis reveals that policy interventions are essential to ensure that the benefits of consortium blockchain adoption are equitably distributed among all shipping industry participants. Additionally, regulatory measures may be necessary to mitigate the heightened volatility in freight rates introduced by blockchain, ensuring a stable and predictable shipping industry landscape.

BV2TrS Appraiser Model: Enforcing BHARAT Version2 in Tree Soft Modelling for Appraising E-Mobility Hurdles

Electric vehicles (EVs) are being introduced to lessen greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution, and reliance on fossil fuels. As a result of the government's aggressive promotion of EVs and rising environmental consciousness, EVs are quickly rising to the top of the low-carbon transportation market. Several viewpoints suggested that shifting to electric vehicles has been seen as a potential way to achieve sustainable mobility. Nevertheless, many studies discussed the obstacles and hurdles that obstruct the embracing of various electric-mobility (E-mobility) as EVs and electric-scooters (E-scooters) as eco-friendly means. Herein, we discussed these hurdles and determined them through surveys for prior studies. Therefore, appraising these hurdles is the objective of our study. Best Holistic Adaptable Ranking of Attributes Technique – version 2 (BHARAT -v2) as a novel Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique is leveraged as an appraiser technique for these hurdles. Tree Soft (TrS) methodology is utilized for modeling these hurdles. Hence, we hybridized and integrated two methodologies for constructing BHARAT v2 Tree Soft (Bv2TrS) as an appraiser model. Subsequently, we discussed the findings of the Bv2TrS appraiser model.

Consequences of freight rate volatility in liner shipping and the role of strategic alliances

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and understand how the infamous fluctuations in freight rates influence (spill over) upstream (shipper and ship-manufacturing) and downstream (ports and ship-recycling) from the perspective of a vertical maritime supply chain. Rate volatility spillovers are examined in the time and frequency domains. As to be expected, the intensity and direction of spillovers differ across time. In general, however, freight rates exert a spillover effect on both the shipbuilding and ship-recycling markets, with a more pronounced impact on the former. We find that the period after 2013 saw a negative impact of freight rates on shippers and ports, primarily due to increased volatility in the global shipping market, which introduced significant unpredictability in shipping costs and operational planning. In the frequency domain, we establish a complex long-term trend and market cyclicality, linked to the general economic cycle. In addition, we calculate industry concentration in the ocean transportation of containers, to understand the impact of alliances and acquisitions (A&A) on freight rates and their spillover effects. Less evidence of industry concentration efforts is observed in prosperous shipping markets where freight rates are sufficiently rewarding. Instead, a higher level of activity towards concentration is observed in periods of market downturns. In such periods, A&As are seen to have a more profound effect on rate spillovers. The study furnishes empirical evidence concerning the spillover effects of freight rates across diverse markets, shedding light on the interconnectedness and dynamics within the various segments of the maritime supply chain. Moreover, we elucidate the significant role played by strategic alliances and acquisitions in the maritime sector, providing a nuanced comprehension of how industry structure influences business behavior and market volatility. The insights garnered from this research hold substantial value for policymakers and business strategists navigating the shipping industry's intricacies, offering them crucial data to support their decision-making processes.

Analysis of the Impact of Large Container Ships on Port Capacity

Facing the fierce competition in the shipping market, major container liner companies are constantly increasing the scale of container ship construction in pursuit of scale effect, and the trend of large-scale development of container ships is increasingly obvious. The enlargement of container ships not only intensifies the competition of shipping companies, but also brings profound changes to the port's facilities and equipment. This paper analyzes the development process, background and reasons of the large-scale container ships, as well as the future development trend of large-scale ships. The qualitative and quantitative method was used to analyze the current status of ship enlargement on the development status. Through the corresponding data and cases, combined with the current rise of international trade protectionism and the global spread of new pneumonia, the impact of ship enlargement on port development was analyzed with a view to the port Development provides corresponding theoretical references and suggestions.

Pengaruh Citra Merek, Kualitas yang Dirasa dan Promosi Penjualan terhadap Minat Beli Tiket Kereta Api

The fierce competition in the transport market makes the companies that operate in this land transport have many challenges to face, so Transport company PT. Kereta Api Indonesia (Persero) on land belongs to this country must have a way to be able to compete with several transportation companies that are on both those in the air and those at sea. On the land itself a lot of competitors ranging from buses, railways, travel, and private vehicles. Certainly to win the competition PT. Kereta Api Indonesia (Persero) needs a way such as promotion of revenue, brand image, and accurately assessed quality to be taken in order to compet not only in the sector of land transport but also with air and maritime transport. Researchers use descriptive methods with a quantitative approach where data collection uses questionnaires. The study's sample population is a S1 student who is on the island of Java. Double linear regression and a descriptive statistical test were employed in this study's data analysis. The study's findings demonstrated that only the brand image with intense purchase intent from the analysis results is known that brand image influences the inclination to make purchases, this is known from the value t (54) = 5,386;P<0,05, whereas the promotion of sales has no influence over buying interest, whereas t(54) = -1,267;P>0,05 and the quality perceived does not have an effect on purchase intent, where t(54 = 0,902;P >0,05. This proves that sales promotion does not affect purchasing interest and the perception of quality does not influence purchase intent.

Performance measurement of international shipping companies before and during COVID‐19: A DEA Malmquist index and window analysis approach

AbstractFor the past several decades, the container shipping industry has grown rapidly. As a result, container shipping companies (CSCs) play a vital role in the global cargo transportation market. Thus, measuring the efficiency of CSCs is a primary concern of managers and practitioners. When the COVID‐19 pandemic broke out, the industry was severely disrupted and presented with unprecedented challenges. For this reason, evaluating how CSCs performed and learning the practices they took to achieve successful business results during this period have become necessary. To serve that purpose, this article used a hybrid method that combined data envelopment analysis Malmquist index with window analysis to analyze the world's nine leading CSCs' performance over time and their efficiency relative to each other, using data collected within a 5‐year period from 2016 to 2020. Our findings revealed different characteristics and trends in efficiency among these CSCs in terms of technical efficiency change, technological change, and total productivity change. Then, managerial implications were discussed to understand the best practices of successful CSCs as well as the circumstances in which some of them underperformed during this time. In closing, the study summarized a fact‐based guideline CSCs could take as management reference should a similar crisis occur.

ANALISIS RANTAI PASOKAN MENTIMUN DI PASAR INDUK KOTA SURAKARTA

Agricultural commodities have supply chain flows from upstream to downstream, namely from producers to consumers. The need for vegetables in the city of Surakarta must be met by the surrounding area because of the limited agricultural land in the city of Surakarta itself. One of the vegetable commodities supplied is cucumber. Therefore, it is important to know the flow of the cucumber supply chain in the Central Market of Surakarta City. The research method used is descriptive quantitative. The research location was chosen purposively, namely the Central Market of Surakarta City (Pasar Gede and Pasar Legi). The sampling technique used snowball sampling to collect informants consisting of farmers, collectors, wholesalers and retailers and incidental sampling with the Slovin formula so that the number of respondents was 77 traders. Data collection techniques using interviews, questionnaires, and documentation. Data analysis used descriptive analysis and multiple linear regression test. The results of this study are 1) there are 6 flows of goods in the supply chain with farmers, collectors, wholesalers, retail traders andconsumers, the financial flow is divided into 2, namely early and late repayment and the flow of information occurs in 2 directions, namely information from farmers to traders. (cucumber availability and transaction mechanisms) and from traders to farmers (price developments). 2) the majority of traders supply cucumbers of 350 – 586 kg. 3) thefactors that have a significant effect on the supply volume of cucumbers in the Central Market of Surakarta City areprice, profit, transportation, supplier area and quality.

POSSIBILITIES AND TRENDS OF APPLICATION OF DIGITALIZATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF RAILWAY PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION IN UKRAINE

Purpose. The purpose of this article is to adapt the experience of leading European countries in the implementation of digital technologies in the organization of railway passenger transportation in the transport market of Ukraine. Method. The following methods were used to achieve the set goal and solve the identified tasks: comparative and graphic method - to display trends in the development dynamics of European countries; systematization and classification - to classify areas of application of digital technologies in the organization of passenger rail transport, modeling - to form a model of the development of passenger rail transport based on digital technologies. Results. In order to increase the competitiveness of passenger transportation in the modern transport market, PJSC "UZ" in the conditions of digitalization of the industry must use the proposed digital marketing tools in the organization of passenger rail transportation and a comprehensive model of the development of passenger rail transportation based on digital technologies. Scientific novelty. Digital marketing tools in the organization of railway passenger transportation are offered. A model for the development of passenger rail transportation based on digital technologies has been created to increase competition in the market of transport services. The practical significance. The proposed digital marketing tools and the formed model for the development of passenger rail transportation based on digital technologies will allow us to adapt to the conditions of the European transport market more quickly and receive additional revenue from passenger transportation.

Theoretical Discussion of the Characteristics of Low-Cost Airlines and the Ripple Effects on the Air Transportation Market

Theoretical Discussion of the Characteristics of Low-Cost Airlines and the Ripple Effects on the Air Transportation Market

The importance of timing in energy shipping

Aim: Investment decisions in shipping are notoriously difficult. The key reason is that freight rates are highly volatile and often unpredictable. The energy shipping sector is most challenging. The paper formulates an investment decision rationale in energy shipping and provides insights as to the ability of experts to predict market trends when it comes to the oil tanker supply and demand and the resulting freight rates. Moreover, we focus on the timing of such investment decisions and ways to identify when the timing thereof is right. This paper aims to develop an investment decision framework in energy shipping, specifically investigating the importance of timing when making investment decisions in this sector, and to test the suggested rationale by applying it to a specific oil tanker purchase case. Design / Research methods: The research process started with a Delphi study to gather expert opinions on the changes taking place in the shipping market. We continued our research process with a concise economic analysis of the 2018 shipping market, and we then applied the findings to a feasibility study for purchasing a specific type of small-scale (Aframax) oil tanker by a company based in Cyprus. Conclusions / findings: Our main findings were that the opinions of the selected commercial experts supported the results of the secondary data analysis, and all the respondents found the year 2018 an attractive time for investing in ships. The results of an investment appraisal financial modelling exercise for the above-mentioned specific purchase case were satisfactory for accepting the project. Due to low purchase prices and high residual value, the initial required investment was lower while the return and other results would be better for a 15-year-old ship than for a 10-year-old unit. However, the risks were to increase together with age. Considering that the prices of Aframaxes were hitting their historically low levels in 2018, and that within the next five years the demand for modern tonnage was anticipated to be firm and thus raise their values up to 35% above the 2018 levels, the purchase of a more modern unit was recommended as it could give an opportunity of a beneficial resale at the end of the project or earlier. In view of the latest market developments, we can now conclude that overall, despite the unprecedented turbulence during the pandemic years, the 2018 investment recommendation proved correct and insightful. Originality / value of the article: The current paper’s intended contribution is an investment analysis based on the primary data from a relatively small shipping company. The disclosed primary data for the intended 2018 purchase of an Aframax oil tanker is unique. Thus, the current paper provides useful practical guidance for potential investors and other professionals who follow the energy shipping market as well as contribute to academic research in shipping finance by providing a framework that is applicable well beyond the described case study. Considering the upward move in the crude oil freight rates and anticipating investment interest in energy shipping, following the Covid-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, we believe that this research paper has a good timing. Keywords: energy shipping, investment appraisal, oil freight market, shipping cycles, decision framework, decision timing JEL: F44, G31, L22, L91, R42

Overcoming the crisis in Korea's shipping industry, 1980–1988

Korea's shipping industry, which began to grow rapidly during the 1970s, faced a crisis in the early 1980s. The leading cause of the crisis was the significant slump in the shipping market caused by the second oil shock and the overcapacity of tonnages through the acquisition of second-hand vessels at a high price during the shipping boom in the early 1980s. The crisis in the shipping industry could have spread directly to the entire banking sector and led to a catastrophe in the national economy. The military government implemented the Shipping Industry Rationalization policy from 1983 to 1988 to prevent such a collapse of the national economy. This article reviews the cause of the shipping industry crisis in Korea in the 1980s and the achievements and limitations of the Shipping Industry Rationalization policy as a way of overcoming the crisis.

The impact of the war on the development of freight transportation in Ukraine

The paper analyzes the relevance of the chosen research topic, in particular, the importance of the freight transportation sector for the development of the Ukrainian economy. The significant impact of a full-scale war on the dynamics of freight transportation and structural changes in this market, which began in 2022, is substantiated. The dynamics of prices for A95 gasoline and diesel fuel for 2022-2024, UAH, is analyzed and analyzed. The dynamics of prices for freight transportation for 2022-2023 is analyzed and substantiated, UAH. The structure of the Ukrainian freight transportation market by export and import of goods as of 2022 is analyzed and analyzed. It is determined that the war affected the rise in fuel prices, which led to higher transportation prices and fuel shortages. It is determined that the largest share in 2022 belonged to rail transport, namely: 50% were exports and 41% were imports. It is determined that most of the cargo was transported by road and rail during the study period. The dynamics of the volume of freight traffic in Ukraine by types of transport for 2021-2022, million tons, is analyzed and substantiated. The paper analyzes the introduction of electronic queues and electronic registration "e-queue". The main problems faced by freight transportation are identified. A way to optimize the costs of enterprises under martial law is proposed. The expediency of introducing digital technologies, which should primarily lead to time savings and faster delivery, is substantiated. The use of a logistics chain management system based on the Digital Twin technology is proposed, the use of which will positively affect the organization of the process of cargo transportation by road and minimize unnecessary costs. The process of implementing Digital Twin in the logistics processes of a carrier company is depicted schematically. Conclusions are drawn about the impact of the war on the development of freight transportation in Ukraine.

Integration effect of shipping network based on shipping alliances

ABSTRACT Shipping alliances and shipping lines are one major research field concerning marine management. This paper examines the role played by shipping lines in shaping the global container shipping network, and focuses on the significant impact of shipping alliances on the global shipping market. The scientific evaluation of the effects of shipping alliances construction and reorganization on network integration remains inadequate. To bridge this gap, our study uses AIS big data to construct a comprehensive model of the container shipping network from the perspective of multilayer, focusing on two levels: shipping alliances and shipping lines. Our findings show that while shipping lines have been competing for shipping markets fiercely, the construction of shipping alliances eases the competition among them and promotes their cooperation. The three alliances have formed a new oligopoly pattern, combining to build a complete and mature network with increased efficiency, density, and stability. Shipping alliances promote spatial complementarity, expand network coverage, and develop branches. We also identify distinct spatial patterns for each alliance, with differentiated complementary structures. This study sheds light on the spatial effect of shipping network integration, offering a new perspective and method for understanding the organization of the global shipping network.

A COMPREHENSIVE MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREIGHTING AND ADJUNCTION FLEET SHIPPING COMPANIES: INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL ASPECTS

Topicality. Today, the transport system, especially the water transport of Ukraine, is in a state of turbulence in the business environment, therefore the development of the transport market and the dynamics of the military influence of maritime transport are subject to significant fluctuations. In modern conditions, when analyzing the work of shipping companies along with the desire to maximize current financial indicators of operation, issues related to the long-term planning of the fleet of shipping companies, taking into account the trends of changes in the state of the freight market and the dynamics of the military influence on the economy of Ukraine, are also important. Aim and tasks. The purpose of this work is to develop a system model of the efficiency indicators of the shipping company's vessels used in sea tramp transportation, taking into account the changing trends of the freight market in international and national aspects. Tasks, the work, to substantiate the model for evaluating the efficiency of the use of sea vessels, which allows making the optimal choice of a vessel for chartering the fleet of a shipping company, taking into account the dynamics of military influence and changes in freight rates. Materials and methods. This study is based on the analysis of the distribution of the freight market in relation to the formation of cargo flows for the global shipping security system. Methods are applied: graphic method, statistical analysis, economic analysis, system analysis on the example of chartering the fleet of shipping companies. Research results. The authors of the study conducted an analysis of the distribution of the international market of freight rates, taking into account various constituent parameters. Values of freight rates and fuel prices for vessels, equipment and others are subject to random fluctuations. Of practical interest is the development of the model proposed by the authors for the development of projects for the chartering and operation of vessels to possible random fluctuations in the business environment. Therefore, there is a need to review the approaches used to regulate transport and the need to develop a comprehensive model for evaluating the performance indicators of the chartering of sea vessels by shipping companies in terms of strategic goals of transport safety. The proposed sequence of substantiation of critical values of freight rates is universal when evaluating the development of shipping companies through chartering, replenishment of shipowners' vessel. Conclusions. So, for a shipping company, the income is formed on the basis of freight rates, therefore, cash receipts from replenishment of the fleet are based on critical freight rates (flight charter). It should be noted that fleet chartering is most often focused on its own commercial operation (with the possible participation of companies engaged in the commercial management of ships). Thus, the system model of fleet chartering is, on the one hand, one of the options for implementing the shipping company's development strategies, and on the other hand, it is a replacement of old vessels to ensure the maintenance of existing market positions.

Investigating effective competition in the Swedish freight market in the presence of network effects, using the case of road transport

The purpose of this paper is to investigate effective competition in the Swedish freight market in the presence of network effects, taking road transport as an example. This study used the extended version of Wandel’s three-layered transport system model as its research framework, on which the construction of a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach was built. Four variables were chosen, with their annual sample data drawn from Swedish official statistics: transport work to represent the integrated transport demand, length of transport infrastructure network to address the effect of infrastructure network on the integrated transport demand, energy consumption of Swedish registered trucks to address the effect of energy distribution network on the integrated transport demand, and public spending on investment and maintenance of infrastructure as a basis for investigating effective competition. We found positive effects of road infrastructure network and road energy distribution network on the integrated transport demand. Our result also shows that the public spending on investment and maintenance of infrastructure has a positive effect on the integrated transport demand through the length of infrastructure network. We argue that the Swedish road transport market is less effective when transport network effects are present, based on the definition of effective competition and our assumption. We discovered a gap in the economic literature between the concepts of effective competition and network effect within the context of freight transport, and we suggested a new category in effective competition to supplement performance, conduct, and structure categories; this new category should take into account the pre-existing conditions of network effect for existing competitors and newcomers, with its various features such as accessibility (i.e., network size), connectivity (i.e., network density), and network design and operation.

Can a boost in oil prices suspend the evolution of the green transportation market? Relationships between green indices and Brent oil

The research aims to answer whether the increases in oil prices can hinder the development of the alternative fuels market and green transportation modes. On the one hand, the growing oil prices encourage individuals to choose alternative transport modes. Conversely, the boosts in oil prices attract investors to the oil market instead of alternative fuels. We analyse the relationships between oil and green indices related to widely-understood transport during the period from 2018 to 2022. We investigate factors that affect these relationships, distinguishing between fundamentals and speculation. We discover that the fundamental factors are crucial in shaping the correlation between Brent and green indices. In two of the three analysed cases, the correlation was constantly positive during the studied period, which means that the indices grew together with Brent prices. We show that the effect of increasing oil prices can be twofold — depending on the origin of the change. It can contribute to the interest in alternative transport growth if it results from oil demand shocks driven by economic activity. However, a boost in oil prices following positive oil consumption demand shocks or expectations about the increases of future oil prices can cause capital outflow from the alternative transportation market.

Effect of macroeconomic shocks on the shipping market: Focusing on COVID-19 pandemic

This study examines the effect of macroeconomic shocks on the shipping market using time-series data by comparing the periods of the COVID-19 and traditional crises. A structural vector autoregressive model and forecast scenario were applied for the analysis. The results can be summarized as follows. First, the response of freight rates to macroeconomic shocks in the shipping market was consistent with the theoretical predictions. Second, the freight rates were the most affected by VIX shock during the global financial crisis, by fleet development shock during the period of overbuilt shipping capacity, and by the oil price during the periods of instability in the oil market. In particular, we found that businesses recovered more quickly from the shock during the COVID-19 compared to other periods, implying that the uncertainty had a greater influence than real economic factors during the pandemic. Finally, forecast scenario analysis showed that freight rates fell sharply immediately after the global financial crisis and during COVID-19 but the pace of recovery was faster during the COVID-19 than the global financial crisis. This study is significant as it empirically shows that the main factors affecting the shipping market and its transition process differ according to the characteristics of episodes.