Market Fundamentals Research Articles

Explainable AI in a Real Estate Context – Exploring the Determinants of Residential Real Estate Values

A sound understanding of real estate markets is of economic importance and not simple, as properties are a heterogenous asset and no two are alike. Traditionally, parametric or semi-parametric and, thus, assumption-based hedonic pricing models are used to analyze real estate market fundamentals. These models are characterized by the fact that they require a-priori assumptions regarding their functional form. Usually, the true functional form is unknown and characterized by non-linearities and joint effects, which are hard to fully capture. Therefore, their results should be interpreted with caution. Applying the state-of-the art non-parametric machine learning XGBoost algorithm, in combination with the model-agnostic Accumulated Local Effects Plots, (ALE) enables us to overcome this problem. Using a dataset of 81,166 residential properties for the seven largest German cities, we show how ALE plots enable us to analyze the value-determining effects of several structural, locational and socio-economic hedonic features. Our findings lead to a deeper representation of real estate market fundamentals.

MARKETING PARADOXES: EXPLICATION OF SOME BASIC MARKETING PARADOXES

This paper aims to clarify the relationship between marketing and important economic/business categories and the internal relationship between two fundamental marketing principles. The author used a qualitative approach to determine the existence of mentioned paradoxes, i.e., using logic-verbal methods is usual in economic theory/philosophy where rational discussion is the essence of understanding economic phenomena and delivering significant insights. The results showed three existing contemporary marketing paradoxes. The first is the paradox of marketing and sales/entrepreneurship, i.e., a paradox between satisfying the wishes and needs of the customers and the salesman/entrepreneur. The second is the paradox of marketing and rational consumer/homo economicus because of their conflicting goals. The third is the intramarketing paradox, i.e., between old and new basic marketing principles, because of substantial incompatibility and dubious effect on consumer well-being. A limitation of this paper is the lack of a mainstream marketing approach that does not emphasize significant concepts contradictions and the absence of quantitative methodology for testing the theses/conclusions. The theoretically unsolvable marketing paradoxes solving can be facilitated by finding a dialectical compromise between achieving contradictory goals closest to the optimal win-win principle. Solutions where only one of the parties in the relationship should dominantly benefit (win-lose) are of no use.

Stock Market Analysis and Prediction Using LSTM

Even for professionals and analysts, predicting the value of stocks has proved to be a challenging endeavor. Because they shed light on the expected future path of the stock market, accurate prediction systems for the stock market are beneficial to traders, investors, and analysts. This is because traders, investors, and analysts can better anticipate the market's behavior. The increase in available choices for financial investments has contributed to the complexity and unpredictability of the stock market. The goal of this project is to develop a model that could precisely depicting the market’s complexity as well as its high degree of volatility. The long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture of a neural network was implemented in this study to estimate Apple's next day closing price throughout the preceding decade. To forecast how the stock market will behave, its six fundamental indicators are integrated in a logical and well-balanced way. These indicators account for fundamental market data, macroeconomic data, and technical indications.

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This article aims to consider examples of organisations that follow the concept of social marketing, to analyse the relevance of applying the principles, methods and tools of social marketing to solve social problems, and determining the effect of applying the concept of socially responsible marketing at the enterprise. The theoretical, methodological, and practical basis of the research was the fundamental marketing provisions and scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists on social marketing. During the processing and analysis of information, general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis were used. Social marketing methods and tools are more trusted than commercial ones, as it affects a larger part of the population; promotes active behaviour change over a certain period of time; stimulates behaviour change with limited resources and develops creative ideas. Social marketing focuses on human benefit rather than on increasing economic opportunities. It is important to meet the social needs and interests of customers and society, so the concept of social marketing creates a marketing strategy that offers consumers the value of improving the well-being of all segments of the population. It is a more complex version of corporate social responsibility and marketing strategy. The scientific novelty of the results obtained is to further deepen the theoretical provisions, to develop scientific and methodological principles and practical recommendations regarding the application of tools, methods and principles of social marketing in the enterprise. The practical significance of the obtained results is that the use of social marketing in an enterprise helps to create a positive image of the company among consumers, which will increase sales due to the formation of a holistic perception of the company by different groups of people. The concept of social marketing focuses on social responsibility and is closely linked to long-term development. Social marketing is a market activity whose priority is to improve the lives of individuals, social groups, and society as a whole. Key words: business project, environmental friendliness, public interests, product competitiveness, social marketing concept, brand loyalty, social marketing initiatives, socially responsible marketing.

Differentiation in microenterprises

AbstractResearch SummarySmall unregistered firms contribute to a substantial proportion of global economic activity, particularly in developing regions. In explaining variation in productivity in these types of informal firms, research has focused primarily on the adoption of effective business practices and access to capital, with little focus on fundamental positioning. This article explores the nature of differentiation in microenterprises, introducing a text‐based measure of differentiation using state‐of‐the‐art sentence embeddings. Using a combined sample of nearly 10,000 microenterprises across eight developing countries, I examine whether (and which) microenterprises differentiate, whether differentiation is related to performance (and for whom), and whether any existing policy interventions affect differentiation.Managerial SummarySmall unregistered firms contribute to a substantial proportion of global economic activity, particularly in developing regions. In studying how to improve the productivity of these types of tiny firms, researchers and policy makers have primarily focused on business practices and access to capital, rather than the fundamental market position of the product or service offered. This article explores the extent to which microenterprises differentiate themselves from peer businesses, introducing a measure of differentiation based on computational text analysis. Using a combined sample of nearly 10,000 microenterprises across eight developing countries, I examine whether (and which) microenterprises differentiate, whether differentiation is related to performance (and for whom), and whether any existing policy interventions affect differentiation.

Single-family courtyard houses in Poland: conditions and perspectives for development based on the example of Krakow

AbstractSingle-family courtyard houses, with spaces oriented towards an internal, private patio, became popular in Western Europe in the 1960s and 1970s. In Poland, courtyard developments are infrequent and were mostly built in the 1970s and 1980s. This study aims to improve our understanding of their low popularity. Poles seem to prefer traditional housing solutions, clearly favouring detached houses, considered to provide the most comfort, privacy, and safety. More than half of the country’s population lives in such buildings, considerably more than the European average. This study suggests that planning conditions along with land registry patterns are fundamental barriers to the development of courtyard housing. In practice, they eliminate the potential for building new complexes of this type. In a broader context, planning conditions reinforce the dominance of traditional, less dense forms of single-family development, primarily those of detached development. This paper posits that there are no favourable conditions for new courtyard housing developments if they are to be based on market fundamentals. Courtyard housing could, however, as in the period of its inception and popularity, become part of an extensive housing experiment, for instance, in national or regional pilot projects, and contribute to animation and progression in housing development.

INTEGRATION OF DISTANCE LEARNING AS A MECHANISM FOR SOLVING THE PROBLEM OF IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION IN THE SYSTEM OF TRAINING SPECIALISTS IN THE FIELD OF TOURISM

The article considers the peculiarities of conducting classes in a distance format. The transition to this training format is the optimal form of effective interaction with students, which allows you to maintain the pace of mastering the program material and avoid a possible interruption of educational activities as a whole. Modern realities of the development of tourism and education in Ukraine are characterized by high requirements for future specialists in the field of service and tourism. Therefore, the problems of integration of remote forms of education into the process of training personnel in the field of tourism are the most urgent today. This article proposes a methodology for the development of distance courses: "Tourist Local History", "Basics of Marketing (in the field of tourism)" and "Organizational Behavior", which combines elements of distance and electronic (open) learning for the training of specialists in the field of tourism. The main structural elements and forms of presentation of the material are defined and characterized: online lectures and webinars, electronic lectures, test and professional-oriented online tasks, forum discussions, etc. Specific forms of work for the courses "Tourist Local History", "Fundamentals of Marketing (in the field of tourism)" and "Organizational Behavior" are video and 3D tours, which ensure clarity and efficiency of learning the material. A characteristic feature of the distance course is the possibility of turning all the materials created by the students during the study of the courses into educational tools that can be used as illustrations, reference products or sources of information. The importance of introducing forms of independent work into distance learning, as well as motivational blocks, such as "Metaphor for the course", "Interesting to know", etc., is emphasized. The experience of creating courses: "Tourist Local History", "Fundamentals of Marketing (in the field of tourism)" and "Organizational Behavior", tested during the training of students of the "Tourism" specialty, and the functions of these courses in the training of specialists in the field of tourism are determined. A pedagogical experiment involving the involvement of distance education specialists in the field of tourism in the process of training is described. It was found that the introduction of distance courses into traditional education increases the quality of knowledge of future tourism specialists, and also forms in them the skills of independent scientific work and creative initiative. Keywords: distance learning, interactivity, communicative interaction, moodle distance learning environment; electronic training course; information resources.

Food, famine and the free trade fallacy: the dangers of market fundamentalism in an era of climate emergency

ABSTRACT The market fundamentalist logic underpinning WTO agricultural trade rules poses a profound threat to global food security in the context of climate change. The growing frequency of extreme weather events raises the prospect of large-scale disruption of agricultural production and distribution. A trading system oriented towards maximizing economic efficiency and reducing redundancy risks leaving the world population acutely vulnerable to food supply disruptions. Ensuring the resilience of global food systems will require considerably more, rather than less, state intervention in agricultural and food production, including cultivating agricultural surpluses to protect against supply shocks.

Influence of Different Spacing and Organic Manure on the Yield and Economics of Groundnut (Arachis hypogea L.)

Aim: The trail was taken to find out the influence of different spacing and organic manure on the yield and economics of the groundnut (Arachis hypogea L.)
 Study Design: Factorial randomized block design.
 Place and Duration of Study: The experiment was taken during the kharif season of 2021 at G.H. Raisoni University at Agronomy farm, Chhindwara, M.P.
 Methodology: The set of nine treatment combination consist of three different spacing and three different OM which is applied at 12 kg/ha of FYM, at 6 kg/ha VC and at 6 kg/ha of PM. The experiment was carried out in Factorial Randomized Block Design with three replication and the treatment combination is T1: S1O1 (30 cm x 10 cm + FYM), T2: S1O2 (30 cm x 10 cm + VC), T3: S1O3 (30 cm x 10 cm + PM), T4: S2O1 (30 cm x 15 cm + FYM), T5: S2O2 (30 cm x 15 cm +VC), T6: S2O3 (30 cm x 15 cm + PM), T7: S3O1 (45 cm x 10 cm + FYM), T8: S3O2 (45 cm x 10 cm + VC) and T9: S3O3 (45 cm x 10 cm + PM) and total number of plots is 27. At the time of experiment, the maximum mean of temperature was 41.60C whereas the minimum mean temperature was 5.680C. The economics of groundnut crop was calculated as per the fundamental market prices of the input and produced during the kharif season 2021.
 Results: Maximum no. of pods/plant (30.67), length of pod (2.72), no. of kernels/pod (2.07), seed index (43.22 g), shelling percentage (74.76 %), pod weight/plant (18.66 g), pod yield/plot (1.53 kg), pod yield (63.01 kg/ha), kernel yield (23.45 kg/ha), haulm yield (39.56 kg/ha) and harvest index (24.07 %) were recorded with T3–30 cm x 10 cm with Poultry manure at 30, 60 and 90 DAS.
 Conclusion: Based on this experiment, it was said that with spacing 30cm x 10cm in combination with poultry manure gives the maximum and significantly higher kernel yield (23.45 kg/ha), gross return Rs.1,72,022.00/ha) as well as highest net return Rs.99,367.00)/ha).

Developing a Regime-Switching Present Value Model: Switching Fundamentals and Bubbles

We develop a present-value model where the fundamental and non-fundamental components switch between distinct regimes. The non-fundamental component is specified as a periodically collapsing bubble of Balke and Wohar [Balke, N. S., & Wohar, M. E. (2009). Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: A Bayesian perspective. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24(1), 35–75. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1025]. The fundamental component is constructed as in van Binsbergen and Koijen [van Binsbergen, J. H., & Koijen, R. S. J. (2010). Predictive regressions: A present-value approach. The Journal of Finance, 65(4), 1439–1471. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01575.x], by treating the expectations of market fundamentals as latent variables. Unlike existing methods, e.g. [Zhu, X. (2015). Tug-of-war: Time-varying predictability of stock returns and dividend growth. Review of Finance, 19(6), 2317–2358. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfu047; Choi, K. H., Kim, C., & Park, C. (2017). Regime shifts in price-dividend ratios and expected stock returns: A present-value approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49(2–3), 417–441. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12384; Chan, J. C., & Santi, C. (2021). Speculative bubbles in present-value models: A Bayesian Markov-switching state space approach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 127, 1–26], ours requires no unnecessary approximations, accommodates flexible forms of regime-switching, and the resulting present-value formula is internally consistent.

Scandinavian Exceptionalisms: Culture, Society, Discourse

Scandinavian Exceptionalisms: Culture, Society, Discourse

On sustainability and higher education: Towards an affirmative ethics

Sustainable development has been the dominant focus in sustainability discourses over the past three decades. In 2015, the United Nations Member States adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development as a blueprint for peace and prosperity. The agenda is to be driven by the now well-known 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The higher education sector has not been left unaffected by these developments. In 2021, we saw Times Higher Education (2021) for the first time introducing its impact rankings, which assess universities against the United Nation’s SDGs. This new category of the university ranking system may see universities increasingly account for their contributions towards both ecological sustainability and social justice. Paradoxically, higher education would have to embrace SDG targets as a social justice imperative, but within a neoliberal performance architecture and by applying the ethics of neoliberal market fundamentalism. In this article, we trouble the underlying normative, economy first (instrumentalist) assumption and anthropocentric approach to sustainability and its relationship with (higher) education. We argue that sustainability is not a means to an end (instrumentalist), but a social and ethical process that is situated, open and forever inbecoming. In doing so, we draw on Rosi Braidotti’s (2019; 2013) critical, posthumanist perspective, which enables us to perform two methodological moves: 1) a critical philosophical exploration of the concept sustainability and 2) generating affirmative propositions for thinking about sustainability education. At the heart of Braidotti’s (2019; 2013) postulations is the affirmation of hope to enable sustainable transformations and futures. In addition, she proposes an ethics of joy and affirmation that functions through transforming negativity into positivity. Through this affirmative ethical philosophy, we offer alternative imaginings of sustainability and generate six affirmative propositions for sustainability in higher education.

The Great Reversal: How an Influential International Organization Changed Its View on Employment Security, Labor Market Flexibility, and Collective Bargaining

The claim that labor market flexibility—the lack of regulations and collective bargaining constraints on employers—is essential to maximizing employment, minimizing unemployment, and obtaining growth does not have empirical support. That the claim lacks evidence can be seen by tracing how the market fundamentalist assertions made in the initial OECD Jobs Strategy in 1994 have been reversed by the OECD and by other international financial institutions. The OECD now notes that new evidence “shows that countries with policies and institutions that promote job quality, job quantity, and greater inclusiveness perform better than countries where the focus of policy is predominantly on enhancing market flexibility.” It has also rejected the argument that collective bargaining defends the interest of “insiders” against “outsiders” in the labor market. While OECD reports previously made almost indiscriminate calls for lowering labor standards to increase labor market flexibility, they now caution that irregular work can be a danger.

Exploring Unique Marketing Paradigm - “NeuroMarketing: Today and Tomorrow”

The modern age of fundamental marketing is creating an information age. Gone are those days when the primary concern of businesses was large production and mass consumption, where the stores were full with inventory and presented the customers with a wild discount. The emergence of modern information technology has made everything within reach for the consumers to compare their preferences with the competitors only a click away. Marketing is not all about selling a product or reaching out to customers but about making a trustworthy and loyal relationship along with customer satisfaction by creating an impressive product. The neuromarketing technique has paved the way for a new age of marketing where more research and studies are being conducted to know the consumers in detail.

A rookie's guide to the academic job market in finance: The labor market for lemons

AbstractTwenty years ago, we circulated our first “Rookie's Guide” to the academic labor market for finance Ph.D. students. Labor market logistics are easier now due to technological change, but the basic informational frictions that made it difficult for rookies to learn the ropes still exist, as do the fundamental market frictions that make bilateral matching between labor demand (hiring schools) and labor supply (the rookies) awkward and challenging. We recapitulate basic advice from previous guides, provide modern updates for the intense interview process, and discuss what to do after you accept an offer and during your first year of employment.

Predicting NEPSE index price using deep learning models

Stock price prediction is a prevalent research field in both industry and academia. There is a pressing demand to develop a prediction model that captures the pattern of the financial activities with high precision to make an informed decision. Stock price prediction is challenging due to the complex, incomplete, fuzzy, nonlinear, and volatile nature of financial data. However, developing a robust model is possible due to advancements in artificial intelligence, availability of large-scale data, and increased access to computational capability. This study performs a comparative analysis of three deep learning models—the Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)—in predicting the next day’s closing price of the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) index. A set of sixteen predictors is carefully chosen under the domain of the fundamental market data, macroeconomic data, technical indicators, and financial text data of the stock market of Nepal. The performances of employed models are compared using the standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Correlation Coefficient (R). The experimental results show that the LSTM model architecture provides a superior fit with high prediction accuracy. Moreover, statistical evidences are presented to validate the models’ reliability and robustness.

Social shopping at Goel Stores: forging ahead through the use of social media

Research methodology The case study is based on field research and also on secondary data. A primary survey is included in the case study. Simple frequency and factor analysis as statistical tools have been used. Case overview/synopsis Family businesses, like that of Kiran Rai’s, owning a local Mom and Pop store in an emerging city were faced with a serious problem of sustaining their businesses. These family businesses countered immense competition from: their own types, i.e. from other local Mom and Pop stores within the same cities; online stores; and the organised stores.The choice of the customers to buy goods from the neighbourhood shops has remained largely as an age-old tradition in the households. With the millennials and the Generation Z (Gen Z) exposed to an array of brands, can they become the first choice of young customers for shopping for all kinds of products and varieties? Can the local Mom and Pop stores spread their wings across the young generations, particularly the Millennials and Gen Z through inexpensive social media channels? What are their growth options? How can the social media serve this purpose? The case uses the social cognition theory and the use gratification theory to throw light on the new concept of Social Shopping. Complexity academic level The case is meant to be discussed in courses like Fundamentals of Marketing, Digital Marketing and Retail Marketing in a 90-min session in the Post Graduate as well as in the Working Executives’ Management programmes. The case analysis will expose the students to the use of social media and its benefits to the small businesses. The students will also be able to analyse and understand the different types of Online Consumers’ Shopping Personalities. This would enable them to strategize for different stages in the decision-making processes.

A new ICEEMDAN-based transfer entropy quantifying information flow between real estate and policy uncertainty

We quantify the dependence between real estate indices and global economic policy uncertainty for 12 top-advanced countries. Generally, real estate investments are found to be highly risky to information flow from global economic policy uncertainty. amidst policy uncertainty, we find diversification, safe haven, and hedging prospects – based on the market conditions – at short term frequencies only, for the pairs between (a) Japan and the US; (b) Singapore and the US; (c) China and Canada; (d) China and Hong Kong. Our findings underscore market efficiency (inefficiency) at mid-and long-term (short-term) frequencies. In the presence of policy uncertainty, our findings underscore the operability of ingrained market dynamics between real estate investments in the mid-and long-term horizons. It is prudent for investors to combine real estate investments with other asset classes that are less risky to (or are positive recipients of) information flow from global EPU to hedge against adverse market shocks from any asset in the portfolio based on market conditions. Practically, not only should legislations be flexible to the changing market trends in the short term, but they should also be strategically crafted to retain the fundamental market dynamics between real estate investments in the mid-and long-term economic horizons.

Long-Term Dynamics of New Residential Supply: A Case Study of the Apartment Segment in Sweden

Since the size of the homeownership ratio differs significantly between countries, it is important to understand the mechanisms that lie behind the decrease or growth of certain sectors of the housing market such as rentals and housing cooperatives. The aim of this study is to analyze the long-term dynamics of the new residential supply in Sweden’s three largest cities for the period of 1990–2020 and estimate in what way market fundamentals affect it through new construction and housing conversions. We apply panel data methodology and, in distinction to previous research, consider the development of the housing market (urban growth) as physical volume. The results demonstrate that structural changes are driven mainly by fundamental demand factors and that the displacement effect occurs primarily in the market’s rental sector and not in the owner-occupied segment. The apartment price per square meter, together with mortgage interest rates, are the major driving factors in the process of converting dwellings into housing cooperatives. Fundamental variables that affect new construction in both the rental and housing cooperative sectors are population and income growth. In the presence of a rent control environment, the rent or price level does not contribute to adding new units to the total housing stock.

Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions

AbstractWe evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.