Credit Default Swap Market Research Articles

U.S. MONETARY POLICY AND SOVEREIGN CDS MARKETS

This paper analyzes the effects of U.S. monetary policy on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) markets in a total of 66 countries including both advanced and emerging market economies at the monthly time horizon from 2001 to 2016. We employ a four-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the monetary policy shock and examine the pass-through of U.S. monetary policy shocks to sovereign CDS markets. We find that the effect of monetary policy shocks on CDS markets is strong, especially during the European sovereign debt crisis and the period the U.S. monetary policy rate was near zero. Our analysis indicates that expansionary U.S. monetary policy leads to the widening of the sovereign credit spreads and the heightening of the CDS market volatility.

Managerial tone and investors' hedging activities: Evidence from credit default swaps

AbstractThis study examines investors' hedging behaviours in the credit default swap (CDS) market in response to the managerial tone of the Management Discussion and Analysis section in 10‐K/Q flings. Utilising CDS positions data derived from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, we first document that managerial tone is negatively associated with CDS positions. We further find that such an effect is stronger for investors with less reliable alternative information channels and for firms with greater default probability. Our inferences persist when using the abnormal tone from a two‐stage analysis, when using change model regression, and when filtering out other potential confounding impacts. The results of this study advance the understanding of how the linguistic tone presented by management affects CDS market investors' hedging decision making through the use of public accounting information in financial disclosures.

Modeling the global sovereign credit network under climate change

Climate change is becoming an urgent issue for the global economy. Our study employs a multivariate extreme value regression model that incorporates a LASSO-type estimator to investigate the tail dependence of the global sovereign credit default swap market conditional on climate change. Herein, we propose an extremal connectedness measure based on tail dependence to construct a sovereign credit network. The findings show that extreme weather or climate disasters significantly impact country-specific sovereign risk with heterogeneous network structure outcomes. Specifically, extreme weather conditions have a strong impact on countries' sovereign credit and magnify their influence on the global sovereign credit network. Furthermore, we identify an asymmetric risk spillover effect in the global sovereign credit network, where the degree of risk spillover is higher under extremely hot weather conditions. Our analysis provides new insights into the role of climate change in sovereign risk.

On the choice of central counterparties in the EU

We study competition between European Union’s Central CounterParties (CCPs) on the credit default swap (CDS) market. Using data on market shares, we show that CCPs have a monopoly for single-name CDSs and compete on indices along various dimensions. Using transactions data, we focus on the major dealers who alternatively clear their transactions on the two main CCPs. Estimating their choice of CCP reveals that fees, CCPs’ robustness and activity, dealers’ risk, and market volatility are significant. Dealers’ positions indicate that saving on collateral costs is secondary relative to the benefits of dual membership and quality.

On Wasserstein distances, barycenters, and the cross-section methodology for proxy credit curves

The credit default swap (CDS) market plays an important role for financial institutions. This is not only for their trading activities, but also as it provides a source of information to extract default probabilities to be used for (counterparty) credit risk purposes, as for instance in credit valuation adjustment calculations. Nonetheless, the number of entities for which liquid single-name CDSs are traded is of the order of a few thousands. This requires financial institutions to employ proxy methodologies to estimate the credit risk they face when trading with counterparties for which no (liquid) CDSs are available in the market. In this paper, we propose and compare different approaches to take into account counterparty-specific information in terms of rating, region, sector, etc. at cross-sectional level to strip risk-neutral default probabilities from CDSs. This is achieved by taking into account the intrinsic probabilistic information characterizing each CDS by means of suitably-defined Wasserstein distances and barycenters. The results suggest that default probabilities are likely to be overestimated if the construction of the proxy credit curves overlooks the probability structure underlying the CDS market, potentially resulting in a too conservative counterparty credit risk pricing framework.

The Determinants of Insider Trading in the Credit Default Swap Market-A Network Perspective

Compared to the corporate bond and stock markets, investors prefer the CDS market to implement insider trading since the CDS market is less regulated and trading in this market on their private information is relatively easy without generating great transaction costs. Social networks, board networks in particular, are one of the central features of most economic activities and play an important role in information transmission. Therefore, investors are motivated to make use of the informational advantage gained from well-connected directors in the CDS market. In this paper, we investigate whether and how insider trading in the credit default swap (CDS) market is influenced by the corporate board network, formed by interlocking boards. We use CDS innovation as a proxy for the intensity of insider trading in the CDS market. To estimate the centrality of a firm position in the board network, we use the average quintile ranks of the four commonly used normalized board network centrality measures. We test our hypothesis based on a large sample of U.S. firms from 2004-2014 and find strong evidence that firms with a more centralized position in the board network experience a higher degree of insider trading in the CDS market. Our results suggest that the board network facilitates private information leakage to investors, resulting in more active informed trading in the CDS market. Moreover, such an association is more pronounced for firms with negative earnings news and for firms with weak corporate governance. In addition, using the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) as a quasi-natural experiment, we document that insider trading becomes less active after the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act. Our results still hold when we repeat the baseline analysis using four centrality measures separately or when controlling for the number of banking relationships. Our results add both to the insider trading literature and the social networks literature by examining the relationship between board network centrality and insider trading behavior in the CDS market. The findings indicate that board networks could serve as a relationship network that transmits private information to outside investors.

Indifference pricing of credit default swaps in a multi-period model

Credit default swaps (CDS) are the most common type of credit derivatives used for hedging and speculative purposes in credit markets. We consider a representative risk-averse investor who has initial endowment in credit instrument and invests in traditional financial instruments. Using the utility indifference pricing approach, we construct a pricing framework for single-name CDS contracts with periodic payments in a multi-period model. Moreover, we analyze CDS buyers with different trading motives, and examine the effect of risk aversion on the indifference upfront prices and credit spreads of CDS for investors with hedging or speculative motives. In particular, our results show that speculation in the CDS market provides a potential explanation for the formation of the negative CDS-bond bases during and after the global financial crisis.

Central Counterparty Default Waterfalls and Systemic Loss

AbstractCentral counterparty (CCP) default waterfalls act as the last lines of defense in over-the-counter markets by managing and allocating resources to cover payment defaults. This article examines the impact of variations in waterfall design on financial system losses in the presence of payment network dependencies and frictions in the cleared and noncleared portion of the system. Through the development of a structural model, we draw several theoretical conclusions about the effectiveness of CCP default waterfalls under severe payment stress. These findings are empirically quantified by testing the model using supervisory data for the U.S. credit default swap market.

The bullwhip effect and credit default swap market: A study based on firm-specific bullwhip effect measure

This paper explores the financial implications of the bullwhip effect in the credit default swap (CDS) market. Using firms' supply chain hierarchical positions to proxy for exposure to the bullwhip effect and CDS positions data, we find that positions further upstream within the supply chain network are associated with more CDS positions with economically significant magnitudes, suggesting that investors employ CDS contracts to hedge against the financial risk of underlying firms that are exposed to a greater bullwhip effect. The positive impact of the bullwhip effect on CDS positions is more pronounced for firms with greater information uncertainty. Our results hold after we control for sample selection bias, rule out an industry-level bullwhip effect, mitigate the effect of hedging demand for accounts payable and debt exposure, and remove the influence of risk pooling, exposure to productivity shocks, and the financial crisis. This study contributes to both the supply chain management and finance literature.

From fears to recession? Time‐frequency risk contagion among stock and credit default swap markets during the COVID pandemic

AbstractThis study uses a high‐dimensional time‐frequency volatility spillover model to examine risk interactions across 32 global stock and credit default swap (CDS) markets during the coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic. Our empirical results mainly show that cross‐market risk spillovers between these two types of markets are rare over the whole crisis period. Adding CDS assets to the stock portfolio would significantly decrease the overall risk spillovers in the mixed portfolio. Then, the time‐frequency spillover and rolling window analyses confirm this finding and provide further evidence of frequency heterogeneity of risk spillovers during the pandemic. The outbreak of the COVID pandemic only sharply increases short‐term risk spillovers between the stock and sovereign CDS market but exerts insignificant impacts on the medium and long‐term cross‐market risk spillovers. Moreover, our results show that developed countries are net transmitters in the stock markets. In contrast, the emerging markets account for the most risk spillovers in sovereign CDS markets over the sample period, emphasizing the heterogenous adverse impacts of the pandemic across various countries and markets. Finally, we find that bailouts implemented by the US and EU central banks, though with heterogeneous impacts across frequencies, gradually enhance the confidence and resilience of investors in these markets.

OTC Intermediaries

Abstract We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market between 2010 and 2013. Prices depend crucially on the risk-bearing capacity of core dealers, yet unlike standard models featuring a dealer sector, we allow for heterogeneity in dealer risk-bearing capacity. This heterogeneity is quantitatively important. Depending on how well dealers share risk, the exit of a single dealer can cause credit spreads to rise by 8 $\%$ to 24$\%$.

Credit default swaps (CDSs): an effective tool to manage credit risk of Indian banks

PurposeCredit default swaps (CDSs) are among the most widely used credit derivatives since their innovation and designed to hedge the credit risk of reference entities. They were exposed after the global financial crisis of 2007–08, and were blamed for its occurrence. This paper aims to describe the fundamental mechanism of CDSs, demonstrating how a CDSs contract works. Further, this study explores the growth of the global and Indian CDS market by taking a holistic perspective.Design/methodology/approachAn objective-driven descriptive research design is adopted to achieve a rigorous and accurate analysis of the study. Therefore, research papers from high-impact journals have been carefully reviewed to achieve the aim of the study.FindingsThe study shows that CDSs are still in their infancy in India. Banks are the primary market makers and users in the Indian CDSs market; therefore, regulatory authorities must assist them to boost the market. For banks to become more confident, they should gain experience and knowledge from other active CDSs markets around the world.Originality/valueThis study attempts to provide insights into the current state of the global as well as the Indian CDS market. Further, this study suggests approaches for the Indian banking sector to play an active role in the Indian CDSs market.

Ask BERT: How Regulatory Disclosure of Transition and Physical Climate Risks Affects the CDS Term Structure

Abstract We use BERT, an AI-based algorithm for language understanding, to quantify regulatory climate risk disclosures and analyze their impact on the term structure in the credit default swap (CDS) market. Risk disclosures can either increase or decrease CDS spreads, depending on whether the disclosure reveals new risks or reduces uncertainty. Training BERT to differentiate between transition and physical climate risks, we find that disclosing transition risks increases CDS spreads after the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, while disclosing physical risks decreases the spreads. In addition, we also find that the election of Trump had a negative impact on CDS spreads for firms exposed to transition risk. These impacts are consistent with theoretical predictions and economically and statistically significant.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Corporate CDS Spreads

We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the credit risk of companies around the world. We find that increased infection rates affect firms more adversely as reflected by the wider increase in their credit default swap (CDS) spreads if they are larger, more leveraged, closer to default, have worse governance and more limited stakeholder engagement, and operate in more highly exposed industries. We observe that country-level determinants such as GDP, political stability, foreign direct investment, and commitment to crisis management (income support, health and lockdown policies) also affect the sensitivity of CDS spreads to COVID-19 infection rates. A negative amplification effect exists for firms with high default probability in countries with fiscal constraints. A direct comparison between global CDS and stock markets reveals that the CDS market prices in a distinct set of corporate traits and government policies in pandemic times.

CDS trading and analyst optimism

This paper investigates whether and how the initiation of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) trading affects analyst forecast optimism. First, we document that the initiation of CDS trading curbs analyst forecasts optimism. Second, we find that the dampening effect of CDS on analyst optimism is stronger for firms with negative news and for firms with poorer financial performance or higher leverage, supporting a “correction effect” of CDS on non-strategic optimism. Moreover, we find that CDS also has a “disciplining effect” on strategic optimism that arises from incentives to cultivate relation with management or to please institutional investors. Overall, our evidence shows that the CDS market not only provides important information for analysts, but also alters analysts’ reporting incentives and enhances their objectivity. Additional analysis shows that this effect has disappeared after the Dodd-Frank Act.

Contagion of credit risk: Comparative analysis before and after the pandemic of COVID‐19

The spreads of credit default swaps (CDS) in Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States move together before the COVID‐19 pandemic with few mutual causalities. However, they do not move together after the pandemic and have more mutual causalities. The credit risk of four major countries—Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States are connected due to their relative stability before the pandemic. However, they are not connected in terms of the differences in public spending between the countries during COVID‐19. This makes the CDS market more sensitive to credit risk in each nation, resulting in the independent move of credit risk among the four countries.

Forecasting high‐yield equity and CDS index returns: Does observed cross‐market informational flow have predictive power?

AbstractWe examine the predictive power of cross‐market informational flow in the systematic high‐yield credit default swap (CDS) and equity markets from 2004 to 2019. Overall, we find both markets useful in forecasting future values of the other, indicating each is more efficient in pricing certain types of information. However, the CDS market has an informational advantage over the high‐yield and broader equity market, something not previously documented in the closely related literature, although the advantage and forecasting ability of these markets have decreased with time due to lower volatility. These results have implications for high‐yield investors and stakeholders who monitor Markit's CDX North American High‐Yield Index for informational content.

Credit Default Swaps

Credit default swaps (CDS) are the most common type of credit derivative. This paper provides a brief history of the CDS market and discusses its main characteristics. After describing the basic mechanics of a CDS, I present a simple valuation framework that focuses on the relationship between conditions in the cash and CDS markets as well as an approach to mark to market existing CDS positions. The discussion highlights how the 2008 global financial crisis helped shape current practices and conventions in the CDS market, including the widespread adoption of standardized coupons and upfront premiums and the increased reliance on centralized counterparties. I also address CDS indexes--focusing on their growing role as key indicators of investors’ attitudes toward credit risk--and briefly examine their behavior during periods of acute financial or economic dislocations, including those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

CDS Channels of Influence on Discretionary Accruals

Existing studies indicated that firm debt holders can use the credit default swap (CDS) market to hedge their credit risk, and thus they would reduce their monitoring of the firms, leading to largely distressed firms shirking and increasing positive abnormal earnings accruals. Besides providing insurance, however, the CDS spreads also perform price discovery of credit risk information sought by trade creditors and potential lenders who are not protected. High absolute abnormal discretionary accruals or bad earnings quality, especially negative abnormal accruals, would lead adverse CDS price signals that are very costly to the firm. This compels the firm under nondistressed conditions to be able to improve cash holdings, cash flows, working capital, and earnings reporting quality. Our new results indicate that the channels of improvement in earnings quality are through a firm’s large accounts payable and low cash holdings related to trade credit exposures. In the longer run, this leads to higher profitability and improved firm value. Thus, the generation of public information via the CDS market reduces information asymmetry and can enforce greater discipline in discretionary accounts reporting.

Bank use of sovereign CDS in the Eurozone crisis: Hedging and risk incentives

Using a comprehensive dataset from German banks, we document the usage of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2008–2013. Banks used the sovereign CDS market to extend, rather than hedge, their long exposures to sovereign risk during this period. Lower loan exposure to sovereign risk is associated with greater protection selling in CDS, the effect being weaker when sovereign risk is high. Bank and country risk variables are mostly not associated with protection selling. The findings are driven by the actions of a few non-dealer banks which sold CDS protection aggressively at the onset of the crisis, but started covering their positions at its height while simultaneously shifting their assets towards sovereign bonds and loans. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for derivatives exposure in building a complete picture and understanding fully the economic drivers of the bank-sovereign nexus of risk.