Mark-recapture Research Articles

Airborne imagery does not preclude detectability issues in estimating bird colony size

Aerial images obtained by drones are increasingly used for ecological research such as wildlife monitoring. Yet detectability issues resulting from animal activity or visibility are rarely considered, although these may lead to biased population size and trend estimates. In this study, we investigated detectability in a census of Malagasy pond heron Ardeola idae colonies on the island of Mayotte. We conducted repeated drone flights over breeding colonies in mangrove habitats during two breeding seasons. We then identified individuals and nests in the images and fitted closed capture-recapture models on nest-detection histories. We observed seasonal variation in the relative abundance of individuals, and intra-daily variation in the relative abundance of individuals—especially immature birds—affecting the availability of nests for detection. The detection probability of nests estimated by capture–recapture varied between 0.58 and 0.74 depending on flyover days and decreased 25% from early to late morning. A simulation showed that three flyovers are necessary to detect a 5–6% decline in colonies of 50 to 200 nests. These results indicate that the detectability of nests of forest-canopy breeding species from airborne imagery can vary over space and time; we recommend the use of capture-recapture methods to control for this bias.

The central role of the identifying assumption in population size estimation.

The problem of estimating the size of a population based on a subset of individuals observed across multiple data sources is often referred to as capture-recapture or multiple-systems estimation. This is fundamentally a missing data problem, where the number of unobserved individuals represents the missing data. As with any missing data problem, multiple-systems estimation requires users to make an untestable identifying assumption in order to estimate the population size from the observed data. If an appropriate identifying assumption cannot be found for a data set, no estimate of the population size should be produced based on that data set, as models with different identifying assumptions can produce arbitrarily different population size estimates-even with identical observed data fits. Approaches to multiple-systems estimation often do not explicitly specify identifying assumptions. This makes it difficult to decouple the specification of the model for the observed data from the identifying assumption and to provide justification for the identifying assumption. We present a re-framing of the multiple-systems estimation problem that leads to an approach that decouples the specification of the observed-data model from the identifying assumption, and discuss how common models fit into this framing. This approach takes advantage of existing software and facilitates various sensitivity analyses. We demonstrate our approach in a case study estimating the number of civilian casualties in the Kosovo war.

A flexible framework for spatial capture-recapture with unknown identities.

Camera traps or acoustic recorders are often used to sample wildlife populations. When animals can be individually identified, these data can be used with spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methods to assess populations. However, obtaining animal identities is often labor-intensive and not always possible for all detected animals. To address this problem, we formulate SCR, including acoustic SCR, as a marked Poisson process, comprising a single counting process for the detections of all animals and a mark distribution for what is observed (eg, animal identity, detector location). The counting process applies equally when it is animals appearing in front of camera traps and when vocalizations are captured by microphones, although the definition of a mark changes. When animals cannot be uniquely identified, the observed marks arise from a mixture of mark distributions defined by the animal activity centers and additional characteristics. Our method generalizes existing latent identity SCR models and provides an integrated framework that includes acoustic SCR. We apply our method to estimate density from a camera trap study of fisher (Pekania pennanti) and an acoustic survey of Cape Peninsula moss frog (Arthroleptella lightfooti). We also test it through simulation. We find latent identity SCR with additional marks such as sex or time of arrival to be a reliable method for estimating animal density.

Discussion on "The central role of the identifying assumption in population size estimation" by Serge Aleshin-Guendel, Mauricio Sadinle, and Jon Wakefield.

In this discussion response, we consider some practical implications of the authors' consideration of the no-highest-order interaction (NHOI) model for multiple systems estimation, which permits the authors to derive the explicit (albeit untestable) identifying assumption related to the unobserved (or missing) individuals. In particular, we discuss several aspects, from the standard process of model selection to potential poor predictive performance due to over-fitting and the implications of data reduction. We discuss these aspects in relation to the case study presented by the authors relating to the number of civilian casualties within the Kosovo war, and conduct further preliminary simulations to investigate these issues further. The results suggest that the NHOI models considered, despite having a potentially useful theoretical result in relation to the underlying identifying assumption, may perform poorly in practice.

That's not the Mona Lisa! How to interpret spatial capture-recapture density surface estimates.

Spatial capture-recapture methods are often used to produce density surfaces, and these surfaces are often misinterpreted. In particular, spatial change in density is confused with spatial change in uncertainty about density. We illustrate correct and incorrect inference visually by treating a grayscale image of the Mona Lisa as an activity center intensity or density surface and simulating spatial capture-recapture survey data from it. Inferences can be drawn about the intensity of the point process generating activity centers, and about the likely locations of activity centers associated with the capture histories obtained from a single survey of a single realization of this process. We show that treating probabilistic predictions of activity center locations as estimates of the intensity of the process results in invalid and misleading ecological inferences, and that predictions are highly dependent on where the detectors are placed and how much survey effort is used. Estimates of the activity center density surface should be obtained by estimating the intensity of a point process model for activity centers. Practitioners should state explicitly whether they are estimating the intensity or making predictions of activity center location, and predictions of activity center locations should not be confused with estimates of the intensity.

Evaluating density-weighted connectivity of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Glacier National Park with spatial capture–recapture models

BackgroundImproved understanding of wildlife population connectivity among protected area networks can support effective planning for the persistence of wildlife populations in the face of land use and climate change. Common approaches to estimating connectivity often rely on small samples of individuals without considering the spatial structure of populations, leading to limited understanding of how individual movement links to demography and population connectivity. Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a framework to formally connect inference about individual movement, connectivity, and population density, but few studies have applied this approach to empirical data to support connectivity planning.MethodsWe used mark-recapture data collected from 924 genetic detections of 598 American black bears (Ursus americanus) in 2004 with SCR ecological distance models to simultaneously estimate density, landscape resistance to movement, and population connectivity in Glacier National Park northwest Montana, USA. We estimated density and movement parameters separately for males and females and used model estimates to calculate predicted density-weighted connectivity surfaces.ResultsModel results indicated that landscape structure influences black bear density and space use in Glacier. The mean density estimate was 16.08 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 12.52–20.6) for females and 9.27 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 7.70–11.14) for males. Density increased with forest cover for both sexes. For male black bears, density decreased at higher grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) densities. Drainages, valley bottoms, and riparian vegetation decreased estimates of landscape resistance to movement for male and female bears. For males, forest cover also decreased estimated resistance to movement, but a transportation corridor bisecting the study area strongly increased resistance to movement presenting a barrier to connectivity.ConclusionsDensity-weighed connectivity surfaces highlighted areas important for population connectivity that were distinct from areas with high potential connectivity. For black bears in Glacier and surrounding landscapes, consideration of both vegetation and valley topography could inform the placement of underpasses along the transportation corridor in areas characterized by both high population density and potential connectivity. Our study demonstrates that the SCR ecological distance model can provide biologically realistic, spatially explicit predictions to support movement connectivity planning across large landscapes.

Prey selection by black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes): implications for intersexual resource partitioning and conservation

Abstract Intraspecific resource partitioning may play a critical role in how predators optimize prey selection. The Black-footed Ferret (Mustela nigripes; henceforth, ferret) is a highly specialized predator of prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.; henceforth, PDs). Adult ferrets are sexually dimorphic and PDs are of similar size making them a difficult prey item. PD young are born 6 to 8 weeks prior to births of ferrets, producing a crop of smaller prey items during a period when energetic needs of female ferrets are highest. We asked whether relatively small female ferrets select small PDs as prey. We examined survival rates from early to late summer for large and small black-tailed PDs (Cynomys ludovicianus) in Montana and South Dakota as a function of their distance to adult male and female ferrets using capture–mark–recapture of PDs and simultaneous summer monitoring of ferret locations. Survival of small PDs (<600 g) was low when a female ferret was nearby, but distance to nearest female ferret did not affect survival of large PDs. Distance to the nearest male ferret did not influence survival regardless of PD size. Reduced competition from males for a critical food resource needed by females rearing young would benefit fitness of both sexes. If female ferrets depend on young PDs during their reproductive period, existing habitat models may substantially overestimate ferret carrying capacity.

Inventory study on completeness of tuberculosis case notifications in Poland in 2018.

BackgroundEvaluating tuberculosis (TB) notification completeness is important for monitoring TB surveillance systems, while estimating the TB disease burden is crucial for control strategies.AimWe conducted an inventory study to assess TB reporting completeness in Poland in 2018.MethodsUsing a double-pronged inventory approach, we compared notifications of culture-positive TB cases in the National TB Register to records of diagnostic laboratories. We calculated under-reporting both with observed and capture-recapture (CRC)-estimated case numbers. We further compared the notifications by region (i.e. voivodship), sex, and age to aggregated data from hospitalised TB patients, which provided an independent estimate of reporting completeness.ResultsIn 2018, 4,075 culture-positive TB cases were notified in Poland, with 3,789 linked to laboratory records. Laboratories reported further 534 TB patients, of whom 456 were linked to notifications from 2017 or 2019. Thus, 78 (534 - 456) cases were missing in the National TB Register, yielding an observed TB under-reporting of 1.9% (78/(4,075 + 78) × 100). CRC-modelled total number of cases in 2018 was 4,176, corresponding to 2.4% ((4,176 - 4,075)/4,176 × 100) under-reporting. Based on aggregated hospitalisation data from 13 of 16 total voivodeships, under-reporting was 5.1% (3,482/(3,670 - 3,482) × 100), similar in both sexes but varying between voivodeships and age groups.ConclusionsOur results suggest that the surveillance system captures ≥ 90% of estimated TB cases in Poland; thus, the notification rate is a good proxy for the diagnosed TB incidence in Poland. Reporting delays causing discrepancies between data sources could be improved by the planned change from a paper-based to a digital reporting system.

Earthquake impacts on a protected pinniped in New Zealand

Abstract The impacts of natural disasters on marine mammals are poorly understood and difficult to study, which can hamper management responses following such events. This study provides the first distribution and abundance assessment of New Zealand fur seal (NZFS: Arctocephalus forsteri) colonies around Kaikōura, New Zealand, since a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in November 2016 caused substantial changes to both the local marine and terrestrial environments, and led to the reconstruction of a major highway that runs adjacent to NZFS colonies. Mark–recapture and direct counts in the 2022–2023 breeding season estimated pup production for NZFS breeding colonies along the Kaikōura coast. Using established multipliers, pup estimates were used to provide the first comprehensive population estimate for Kaikōura's NZFS population since the earthquake. Three new colonies and three new subcolonies were assessed and recorded, additional to reassessments of two established colonies. Overall, Kaikōura's NZFS population has grown and spread post‐earthquake, with an upper total population estimate of between 21,560 and 28,327 animals in the 2022–2023 breeding season. Some sites, such as Lynch's Reef, appear to have benefited from earthquake‐induced coastal uplift, with pup production increasing. Contrastingly, the estimated 2,401 (±99) pups produced at Ōhau Point in 2023 is similar to pre‐earthquake estimates. This indicates that the earthquake has disrupted previously documented growth at this site. The distribution of NZFS breeding at Ōhau Point has also changed substantially since the last pre‐earthquake assessment. From these findings, alterations to the Ōhau Point New Zealand Fur Seal Sanctuary and similar protections at other locations on the Kaikōura coast are suggested, as greater numbers of NZFSs are now accessible to human interaction and disturbance. The results demonstrate both how natural disasters and subsequent infrastructure modifications can impact coastal species and how conservation measures may need to be amended accordingly.

Finite mixtures in capture-recapture surveys for modeling residency patterns in marine wildlife populations.

This work aims to show how prior knowledge about the structure of a heterogeneous animal population can be leveraged to improve the abundance estimation from capture-recapture survey data. We combine the Open Jolly-Seber model with finite mixtures and propose a parsimonious specification tailored to the residency patterns of the common bottlenose dolphin. We employ a Bayesian framework for our inference, discussing the appropriate choice of priors to mitigate label-switching and nonidentifiability issues, commonly associated with finite mixture models. We conduct a series of simulation experiments to illustrate the competitive advantage of our proposal over less specific alternatives. The proposed approach is applied to data collected on the common bottlenose dolphin population inhabiting the Tiber River estuary (Mediterranean Sea). Our results provide novel insights into this population's size and structure, shedding light on some of the ecological processes governing itsdynamics.

Estimating the true number of people with acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease from two data sources using capture-recapture methodology.

ObjectiveIn Australia, accurate case ascertainment of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) diagnoses for disease surveillance and control purposes requires the use of multiple data sources, including RHD registers and hospitalisation records. Despite drawing on multiple data sources, the true burden of ARF/RHD is likely to be underestimated.MethodsThis study used capture-recapture methods to quantify the missing number of ARF/RHD cases in data from hospitals and jurisdictional RHD registers. Linked datasets comprised reported cases of ARF/RHD in register records and administrative hospital data.ResultsCapture-recapture analyses indicated the total number of new ARF/RHD cases in three Australian jurisdictions (Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia), among people aged 3-54years, was 3480 (95% CI=3366-3600) during 2011-2016. This included 894 (25.7%) individuals who were not listed in either the hospital or register datasets. Non-Indigenous, urban and older people with ARF/RHD were least likely to be identified in either the hospital or register data sources.ConclusionsThe 894 likely ARF/RHD cases our analyses detected that are not included in the routine surveillance datasets are concerning and quantify the magnitude and characteristics of under-notification to RHD registers in Australia, especially for groups that are not typically at high risk of ARF.

POSTOPERATIVE PHOTORECEPTOR INTEGRITY AND ANATOMICAL OUTCOMES BASED ON PRESENTING MORPHOLOGIC STAGE OF RHEGMATOGENOUS RETINAL DETACHMENT.

To evaluate outer retinal recovery on postoperative optical coherence tomography (OCT) based on presenting morphologic stage of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD). Retrospective cohort of consecutive primary fovea-involving RRDs, referred from January 2012 to September 2022. Baseline OCTs were assessed for morphologic stage of RRD. Postoperative OCT scans were graded at 3, 6, and 12 months for external limiting membrane, ellipsoid zone and interdigitation zone discontinuity, epiretinal membrane formation and severity, and residual subfoveal fluid. Three hundred and fifty-one patients were included. Increasing baseline morphologic stage of RRD was significantly associated with external limiting membrane, ellipsoid zone, and interdigitation zone discontinuity at all time points postoperatively ( P < 0.001) and was shown to be an independent predictor of foveal photoreceptor integrity after adjusting for height of detachment, time to surgery, and duration of fovea involvement ( P < 0.001). Earlier stages were associated with residual subfoveal fluid ( P < 0.001). There was no association between the stages of RRD and epiretinal membrane severity. However, late stages presented with earlier development of epiretinal membrane ( P = 0.012). Increasing morphologic stage of RRD is associated with delayed recovery of outer retinal bands in the first year and faster development of epiretinal membrane after RRD repair. The results of this study suggest that the stages may serve as a prognostic biomarker for postoperative photoreceptor recovery.

Estimating abundance of a small population of Bryde's whales: a comparison between aerial surveys and boat‐based platforms of opportunity

AbstractAccurate abundance estimates are essential for the development of effective conservation management strategies, yet they are difficult to produce for small populations that are elusive and sparsely distributed throughout their range. For such populations it is challenging to collect a representative dataset sufficient for robust estimation of detectability and abundance. Over a one‐year study, we used two methods to estimate abundance of a Nationally Critical, widely dispersed Bryde's whale population in the Hauraki Gulf, Aotearoa/New Zealand; (i) distance sampling from systematic line‐transect aerial surveys (n = 22 surveys, 9,944 km, total sightings 21–24 whales), and (ii) mark‐recapture (MR) using photo‐identification images collected from a platform‐of‐opportunity and small‐boat surveys (218 sampling occasions, 27 whales). From the aerial surveys, we estimated an average of 15 whales (95% CI = 6, 30; CV = 37%) at the sea‐surface at any time. For the boat‐based surveys, we developed a custom MR model to address seasonal and individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and obtained an estimate of 72 distinct whales (95% CI = 38, 106; CV = 24%) in the population. These two approaches provide different perspectives on the abundance and dynamics of Bryde's whales. The aerial surveys estimate the average number of individuals present at any one time, whereas the MR model estimates the total number of animals that used the Gulf during the study. Although neither sampling method is optimal for estimating the abundance of this small, dispersed population, the use of two complementary approaches informs conservation managers about patterns of abundance and distribution over different temporal and spatial scales. It is common to have limited resources for marine research where model assumptions cannot be met. Here, we highlight pragmatic strategies showing how models can be customized to the population of interest to assist with monitoring species of conservation concern.

Combining cross-sectional survey and register data improved the estimate of hepatitis C prevalence among patients attending a psychiatric emergency department in Denmark

Background The prevalence of hepatitis C (HCV) among psychiatric patients is elevated compared to the background population in many studies, but the prevalence among Danish psychiatric patients is unknown. The aim of the study was to determine the HCV prevalence and the proportion of the psychiatric patient population that remains to be diagnosed and treated in a Danish setting. Methods During a 5-month period, patients attending the psychiatric emergency room in Vejle, Denmark, were offered point-of-care anti-HCV testing. Previous hepatitis C tests for all patients attending the Psychiatric Department in the study period were extracted from the national laboratory database (DANVIR). We combined the survey and register data in a capture–recapture estimate of undiagnosed patients with HCV. Results During the study 24.9% (589 of 2364) patients seen at the psychiatric department attended the emergency room. The prevalence of anti-HCV among those tested in the emergency room was 1.6%. The laboratory register identified 595/2364 patients previously tested for anti-HCV with a positive prevalence of 6.1%. The undiagnosed anti-HCV positives among the 1483 never tested was estimated to 1.1%. Thus the total estimated prevalence of anti-HCV was 2.3% (54/2364, 95% CI 1.7%–3.0%) in the population, of whom 70.4% had been diagnosed, and 72.2% of diagnosed patients had received treatment or cleared HCV. Conclusion Combining survey and register data showed that the WHO target of 90% diagnosed and 80% treated was not met. To eliminate HCV in the psychiatric population, both undiagnosed and untreated patients must be targeted.

Evaluating population persistence of ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata) at the northeast edge of their distribution

Turtles and tortoises are among the most threatened vertebrate groups. Their life history is characterized by delayed sexual maturity and a long lifespan, making populations susceptible to decline following perturbations. Despite the urgent conservation need, we are missing estimates of basic demographic traits for many species and populations. The ornate box turtle Terrapene ornata is a species lacking crucial demographic data. Many populations are isolated in fragmented habitats, especially in the eastern portion of their range. We carried out long‐term capture–mark–recapture surveys on two isolated populations in northern Illinois to estimate population vital rates and project population persistence with deterministic stage‐based matrix models. Using 34 years of data, we estimated adult female survival = 0.974 (95% CI: 0.946–0.988) and juvenile survival = 0.867 (95% CI: 0.688–0.951) at our most intensively surveyed site. At a second site using eight years of data, we estimated adult female survival = 0.897 (95% CI: 0.783–0.954) and juvenile survival = 0.844 (95% CI: 0.551–0.960). Despite seemingly high annual survival rates, populations declined under population projections using mean vital rates. Population growth was most sensitive to adult survival, with increasing sensitivity under more pessimistic scenarios. Our results highlight the importance of long‐term demographic studies for threatened species and demonstrate protecting adult female ornate box turtles is critical for ensuring populations persist at the northern edge of their distribution.

Deriving a zero-truncated modelling methodology to analyse capture–recapture data from self-reported social networks

Capture–recapture (CRC) is widely used to estimate the size (N) of hidden human populations (e.g., the homeless) from the overlap of sample units between two or more repeated samples or lists (a.k.a., capture occasions). There is growing interest in deriving CRC data from social-network data. The current paper hence explored if self-reported social networks (lists of social ties) submitted by participants from the target population could function as distinct capture occasions. We particularly considered the application of zero-truncated count distribution modelling to this type of data. A case study and follow-up simulation study focused on two methodological issues: (1) that a participant cannot be named in their own self-reported social network and hence cannot be named as many times as non-participants; and (2) positive dependence between being a participant and being named by (a social tie of) other participants. Regarding the latter, a further motivation of the simulation study was to consider the impact of using respondent-driven sampling to select participants, because all non-seed RDS participants are recruited as a social tie of another participant. Exponential random graph modelling was used to generate the simulation study’s target populations. Early comparison was also made to estimates of N from Successive Sampling.

Extension of Pradel capture–recapture survival‐recruitment model accounting for transients

Abstract Population growth is the sum of survival and recruitment, and knowledge of these two vital rates is crucial for understanding population dynamics. Moreover, animal populations often contain varying number of transient (i.e. nonresident) individuals that do not contribute to these rates but may bias their estimates. The widely used Pradel (1996, Biometrics, 52: 703) survival‐recruitment model for capture–mark–recapture data is only able to handle resident individuals on a fixed study area across a particular study period. Yet, numerous capture–mark–recapture data sets, from a wide range of taxa, feature transient individuals. The most widespread sources of avian demographic data, based on citizen science projects, feature both transient individuals and changes in the study area over time. We present an extension of the Pradel model that accounts for the presence of transient individuals and changes in the study area. In contrast to known extensions of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber models in which transients are modelled as a proportion of newly captured individuals, our novel approach models transient individuals as a proportion of all birds captured. In addition, we present a new simple way to visualize the interlinkage of the vital rates produced by our extended Pradel model. We demonstrate utilization of the model using capture–mark–recapture data collected by a constant‐effort mist‐netting citizen science programme in the Czech Republic, presenting demographic rates of two species with different population dynamics. To demonstrate the newly achieved ability to analyse the phenomenon of transience, we show the differences in transience and its temporal trends between wet and dry habitats. Removing the limitations of the Pradel model opens up new potential for much wider range of applications. Furthermore, our novel parametrization of transients as a proportion of all birds captured facilitates biological interpretation of the transience parameter and the study of transience as a biological phenomenon. Calculating all demographic parameters in a single model also opens up a unique possibility to take into account their correlated error distributions in follow‐up analyses. Our model can be further extended in several ways and can serve as a basic building block in a wide range of demographic analyses.

Conserving localized endemic butterflies through demographic and ecological studies: Polyommatus humedasae

1.Polyommatus humedasae is an endemic species narrowly distributed in a few sites in the Aosta Valley (NW Italy). Similarly to other alpine butterflies, the survival of the species is closely linked to the conservation of semi-natural grasslands.2.Despite the species being known since 1976, this is the first comprehensive data collection and analysis on this species, firstly to understand its distribution. At Pont d'Ael, the species core site, we applied the mark-release-recapture (MRR) method to estimate population size and density. To understand the species ecology, we collected data on preimaginal stages (eggs and larvae), host plants, and vegetation composition.3.The new data on species distribution (with 5 new sites and 2 subpopulations already extinct) permitted to update the extinction risk through IUCN assessment to Critically Endangered (CR). The estimated size (881 individuals) and density (73 N/ha) of the studied population are higher than those of other endemic Polyommatus species. Data suggest the species is monophagous on Onobrychis arenaria and prefers to lay eggs where the host plant is abundant, in ecotonal areas with some shrub cover (average 8 %), high herbaceous cover (average 68 %) and on plants in better physiological conditions.4.For species such as P. humedasae, which are threaten by woody encroachment, climate change, fires and collection, we propose the application of a management plan that includes: 1) mechanical cut of wood species; 2) small herds on a rotational basis to reduce woody encroachment and maintain shrub patches; 3) dissemination events to highlight the population importance.

Genetic insights to assist management of the Critically Endangered hangul Cervus hanglu hanglu in the Kashmir Himalaya

AbstractThe hangul Cervus hanglu hanglu, a Critically Endangered mountain ungulate of Jammu and Kashmir, India, faces the imminent threat of population loss and extinction. Effective management of its largest viable population in Dachigam National Park in the Kashmir Himalaya requires reliable demographic information. Using 14 microsatellite markers we identified 293 individuals (208 females and 85 males) through faecal analysis, and generated data on the genetic status and population size of the hangul in its winter habitat. The mean expected and observed heterozygosities of 0.62 and 0.59 are comparable to those of several red deer Cervus elaphus populations elsewhere. The effective population sizes were 46.3 and 93.7 when the frequencies of rare alleles were considered to be 0.050 and 0.010, respectively. The average mean kinship of the population was 0.34, and there was no evidence of a recent bottleneck event. In genetic mark–recapture analysis the best model included an effect of sex on both detection and recapture probabilities. Detection of males was highest in November, coinciding with the hangul breeding season, whereas detection of females was highest in December. Our estimate of the hangul population using genetic mark–recapture with bootstrapping was 394 individuals. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use genetic data to estimate the population of the hangul. It will guide future studies of this subspecies and also serve as an impetus for identifying founder animals for captive breeding, and for connecting the population in Dachigam National Park with the other small, isolated populations to ensure the long-term survival of this subspecies.

Gaining further insights into the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia: Evidence using capture-recapture methods

ObjectiveWe re-examined the reported number of COVID-19 cases in Australia and across its states during the first wave of the pandemic. We provided estimates of the total number of cases, adjusted for under-reporting. MethodsPublicly available data sourced from Australian governments at federal, state and territory levels included records on cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases and cumulative deaths occurring in Australia and across its states on a daily basis. Lower bound and upper bound estimates of the total number of COVID-19 cases in Australia and across its states, that included the undetected cases that have not been recorded, were estimated. ResultsOn January 25, 2020, Australia recorded its first 4 cases of COVID-19 and the first death occurred on March 3, 2020. On April 1, 2020, 4864 cases had been reported with 21 deaths. Our estimation showed that on April 1, 2020, the minimum and maximum number of COVID-19 cases in Australia were in fact 10,160 (95 % CI: 9781–10,538) and 21,748 (95 % CI: 21,607–22,014) respectively. We estimated that the total number of cases were at least twice and at most four times the observed cases recorded. These differences were also found at the state level where in New South Wales there was a minimum and maximum of 207 and 447 cases in total for every 100 reported cases, while in Victoria these figures were much lower at 157 and 265 respectively for every 100 reported cases. ConclusionCase ascertainment during the pandemic is known to have been underestimated due to difficulties in testing and contact tracing, amongst others. Capture-recapture methods provided a measure of the gap between the official number of cases recorded and the actual number during the first wave of the pandemic.