Mark-recapture Distance Sampling Research Articles

Comparison of thermal cameras and human observers to estimate population density of fallow deer (Dama dama) from aerial surveys in Tasmania, Australia

Context The population of introduced fallow deer (Dama dama) is thought to have increased exponentially across much of the island of Tasmania, Australia, since 2000. Historically, deer management decisions have relied on population trend data from vehicular spotlight surveys. Renewed focus on the contemporary management of the species requires development of more robust and precise population estimation methodology. Aims This study demonstrates two aerial survey methods – conventional counts by trained human observers, and thermal imaging footage recorded during the same flights – to inform future survey practices. Methods Conventional counts were carried out by three observers, two seated on the left side of the helicopter, and one on the right. A high-resolution thermal camera was fitted to the helicopter and was orientated to meet the assumptions of distance sampling methodologies. Both survey methods were used to generate deer population density estimates. Spatial distribution of deer was also analysed in relation to patches of remnant native vegetation across an agricultural landscape. Mark–recapture distance sampling was used to estimate density from human observer counts and provide a comparison to the distance sampling estimates derived from the thermal camera. Key results Human observer counts gave a density estimate of 2.7 deer per km2, while thermal camera counts provided an estimate of 2.8 deer per km2. Deer population density estimates calculated via both methods were similar, but variability of the thermal camera estimate (coefficient of variation (CV) of 36%) was unacceptably high. Human observer data was within acceptable bounds of variability (CV, 19%). The estimated population size in central and north-eastern Tasmania for 2019 approximated 53,000 deer. Deer were primarily congregated within 200 metres of the interface between canopy cover and open pasture. Conclusions The population density estimate provides a baseline for monitoring and managing the Tasmanian deer population. Human observer data was more precise than thermal camera data in this study, but thermal counts could be improved by reducing sources of variability. Implications Improvements for the collection of thermal imagery are recommended. Future control efforts may be more efficient if they preferentially target habitat edges at this time of year, paired with random or grid-based searches where population density is lower.

Species composition, relative abundance, and habitat association of birds in Dodola dry evergreen afro-montane forest and sub-afro-alpine scrubland vegetation, southeast Ethiopia.

Birds' functional groups are useful for maintaining fundamental ecological processes, ecosystem services, and economic benefits. Negative consequences of loss of functional groups are substantial. Birds are usually found at a high trophic level in food webs and are relatively sensitive to environmental change. The first surveillance bird study was carried out southeast of Ethiopia adjacent to Bale Mountain National Park aimed at investigating the composition, relative abundance, and distribution of Aves. Using regular systematic point transact sampling, the density and species composition were analyzed through the mark recapture distance sampling engine assisted by R statistical software. This study recorded a total of seventy-eight bird species over two distinct seasons. Among these, fifteen species were exclusive to Erica habitats, twenty-six were found in natural forest habitats, and three were specific to plantation forest habitats. The study also discovered three endemic species. Based on the 2018 IUCN Red List categories, six of the species are globally threatened, three are near threatened, and the remaining sixty-nine are classified as least concern. The relative abundance of birds did not significantly differ across habitats and seasons, but variations were observed among blocks. Bird density was found to fluctuate across the three habitats and two seasons; however, these habitat differences were not influenced by seasonal changes. The findings of this study reveal that the differences in composition and relative abundance are not merely seasonal changes in the forest and Erica habitats. Instead, these habitats create microclimates that cater to specific bird species. However, this localized endemism also presents challenges. The concentration of endemic species and potential resource constraints could pose a threat to these habitat-specialist birds.

Comparing methods to estimate feral burro abundance

AbstractObtaining precise and unbiased estimates of feral burro (Equus asinus) abundance in the western United States is challenging due to their cryptic pelage and the rugged terrain they inhabit. Management agencies employ helicopter‐based, simultaneous double‐observer sightability surveys (hereafter denoted as DOS) to estimate abundance of burros; but the DOS method routinely produces negatively biased estimates due to residual heterogeneity in detection probability. Consequently, testing alternative methods to improve upon current procedures is warranted. Residual heterogeneity in DOS surveys can be minimized by including radio‐collared individuals in the population. Alternatively, if distance measurements are recorded, residual heterogeneity can also be reduced via a mark‐recapture distance sampling (MRDS) approach. Aerial infrared (IR) surveys offer a safer alternative than helicopter‐based surveys because they can be flown at a higher altitude and require fewer observers in the aircraft. Further, IR surveys using a distance sampling approach have been shown to generate accurate and precise estimates of feral horse (E. caballus) populations. Accordingly, we compared results of surveys using aerial IR distance sampling, the standard DOS survey, a DOS survey incorporating detections of radio‐collared individuals, and an MRDS analysis of a feral burro population with a known minimum population size in central Utah, winter 2015–2016 and spring 2016. The minimum number of burros known alive during the winter and spring surveys were 236 and 136, respectively. The average detection probability of IR surveys was P = 0.88 (SE = 0.16) and distance models produced estimates of 127 burros (95% CIs = 99–175) for the winter survey, and 94 burros (CIs = 72–134) for the spring survey. Mean detection probability of the standard DOS surveys was P = 0.78 (SE = 0.09), and model‐generated abundance estimates were 155 burros (CIs = 133–227) in winter, and 92 burros (CIs = 79–139) in spring. Incorporating detections of radio‐collared individuals in the DOS survey resulted in a decreased detection probability (P = 0.46; SE = 0.06) and increased abundance estimates to 267 (CIs = 169–571) and 155 (CIs = 128–263) for winter and spring, respectively. Mark‐recapture distance sampling produced a mean detection probability of P = 0.48 (SE = 0.12) and resulted in estimates of 282 (CIs = 178–385) and 169 (CIs = 73–310) burros in winter and spring, respectively. Our study demonstrated that aerial IR surveys conducted using standard distance sampling can produce precise estimates of burro population sizes; however, estimates were negatively biased relative to the known population size. Small sample size limits generalization of our results, but the IR‐based distance approach did not improve upon DOS surveys. Accounting for residual heterogeneity through use of radio‐collars and mark‐recapture distance sampling eliminated the negative bias from the standard DOS survey but decreased survey precision. Managers will need to decide whether unbiased but less precise abundance estimates are preferable compared to a more precise, but biased, estimate.

Abundance of fin whales in West Greenland in 2007

An aerial line transect survey of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) conducted off West Greenland in 2007 was used to estimate the current abundance of fin whales on the summer feeding ground. A total of 24 sightings of fin whale groups were collected during 8,632km of survey effort in sea states <5. Based on conventional distance sampling techniques an abundance of 4,359 whales (95% CI 1,879–10,114) was estimated. The survey was conducted as a double platform survey and mark recapture distance sampling techniques were used to correct for perception bias which resulted in an estimate of 4,468 whales (95% CI 1,343–14,871). Both estimates are negatively biased because no corrections were applied for whales that were submerged during the passage of the survey plane. The abundance estimate furthermore only represents the coastal areas of West Greenland. The sightings at the westernmost border of the strata suggest that the entire Baffin Bay-Davis Strait summer abundance of fin whales could be considerably larger. Based on comparison with previous surveys in West Greenland in 1987/88 and 2005 it appears that the fin whale abundance in West Greenland has increased.

Rate of increase and current abundance of humpback whales in West Greenland

Aerial line transect surveys of the density of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) conducted off West Greenland eight times between 1984 and 2007 were used to estimate the rate of increase on the summer feeding ground. Only surveys in 1993, 2005 and 2007 had enough sightings to construct independent density estimates, whereas the surveys in 1984–85 and 1987–89 had to be merged and treated as two surveys. The annual rate of increase was 9.4% yr–1 (SE = 0.01) between 1984 and 2007. This rate of increase is higher than the increase estimated at the breeding grounds in the West Indies, but is of the same magnitude as the observed rate of increase at other feeding grounds in the North Atlantic. A matrix model based on observed life history parameters revealed that the theoretical growth rate of a humpback whale population ranged between 1 and 11%. This confirms that the observed growth in West Greenland is within the plausible values. The survey in 2007 was used to make a fully corrected abundance estimate including corrections for whales that were submerged during the passage of the survey plane. The line transect estimate for 2007 was 1,020 (CV = 0.35). When the estimate was corrected for perception bias with mark-recapture distance sampling (MRDS) methods, the abundance increased to 1,505 (0.49). A correction for availability bias was developed based on time-depth-recorder information on the time spent at the surface (0–4m). However, used directly this correction leads to a positively-biased abundance estimate and instead a correction was developed for the non-instantaneous visual sighting process in an aircraft. The resulting estimate for 2007 was 3,272 (CV = 0.50) for the MRDS analysis. An alternative strip census estimate deploying a strip width of 300m resulted in 995 (0.33) whales. Correction for perception bias resulted in 991 (0.35) whales and corrected for the same availability bias as for the MRDS method resulted in a fully corrected estimate of 2,154 (0.36) humpback whales in West Greenland in 2007.

Surfacing time, availability bias and abundance of humpback whales in West Greenland

Visual aerial surveys of large whales are negatively biased unless correction factors are developed to correct the availability of whales at the surface. One method for developing a correction factor for this bias is by instrumenting whales with recorders that measure the amount of time spent at the surface. Thirty-one SLTDRs (three different models) were deployed on humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in West Greenland in May and July 2009–10. The SLTDRs recorded the proportion of a 6 hour period that the whales spent at or above 2m depth (defined here as surfacing time). This depth is considered to be the maximum depth that humpback whales are reliably detected from the air on visual aerial surveys in West Greenland. Eighteen transmitters provided data on the surfacing time and the drift of the pressure transducer. The average surfacing time for whales over the study period during the two 6 hour periods with daylight was 28.3% (CV = 0.06). Six whales met the data filtering criteria and had low drift in transmitter depth. Their average surface time was 33.5% (CV = 0.10). Previous analyses of visual aerial survey data have shown that the amount of time whales are available to be seen by observers is not an instantaneous process. Therefore, surface time must be corrected for a positive bias of about 10% when developing a correction factor for availability bias. This increases the availability in this study to 36.8% (CV = 0.10). The most recent survey of humpback whales in West Greenland was conducted in 2007 and corrections using this availability factor produce fully corrected abundance estimates of 4,090 (CV = 0.50) for mark-recapture distance sampling analysis and 2,704 (CV = 0.34) for a strip census abundance estimate. These estimates are about 25% larger than previous estimates from the same survey.

Estimating population size: The importance of model and estimator choice.

We consider estimator and model choice when estimating abundance from capture-recapture data. Our work is motivated by a mark-recapture distance sampling example, where model and estimator choice led to unexpectedly large disparities in the estimates. To understand these differences, we look at three estimation strategies (maximum likelihood estimation, conditional maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation) for both binomial and Poisson models. We show that assuming the data have a binomial or multinomial distribution introduces implicit and unnoticed assumptions that are not addressed when fitting with maximum likelihood estimation. This can have an important effect in finite samples, particularly if our data arise from multiple populations. We relate these results to those of restricted maximum likelihood in linear mixed effectsmodels.

Use of aerial distance sampling to estimate abundance of tule elk across a gradient of canopy cover and comparison to a concurrent fecal DNA spatial capture-recapture survey

Historically, aerial surveys have been used widely to monitor abundance of large mammals in the western United States. In California, such surveys have typically served as minimum count indices rather than true abundance estimates. Here, we evaluated the utility of aerial multiple covariate distance sampling (MCDS) to estimate abundance of three populations of tule elk (Cervus canadensis nannodes) in northern California. We also compared estimates and costs with published results from a concurrent fecal DNA spatial capture-recapture (SCR) survey. During December 2018 and 2019, we flew line transects for distance sampling of tule elk in Colusa and Lake counties. We modeled detection functions and evaluated effects of group size, canopy cover, and survey year. We averaged the top models comprising ≥0.95 of Akaike Model Weight and estimated abundance of both total and discrete populations. Detection probability increased with increasing group size and decreasing canopy cover. We estimated a two-year average total population size of N̂ = 674 elk (90% CI = 501–907) in our survey area which was similar to N̂ = 653 elk (90% CI = 573–745) from SCR estimates. Overall precision was greater (CV = 0.08; range = 0.11–0.30 by population) for SCR than for MCDS (CV = 0.18; range = 0.22–0.43 by population). Although estimates differed somewhat between methods for the individual populations, the combined estimate across the study region compared favorably. Total cost of SCR and MCDS surveys was $98,326 and $147,324, respectively. While SCR efforts were more precise and less expensive overall, our MCDS approach reduced staff time by 64% (587 person-hours) and the number of survey days by 87% (64 days). Our results suggest MCDS methods can produce reliable abundance estimates across a gradient of canopy cover, particularly when observations can be pooled across populations to decrease variance. We recommend future research to assess use of hybrid models, such as mark-recapture distance sampling or hierarchical distance sampling, to improve precision and estimation of detection probability.

Estimating density of terrestrial reptiles in forest habitats: The importance of considering availability in distance sampling protocols

Reptile populations are relevant components of biodiversity in both temperate and tropical forests. However, in forest habitats reptiles are secretive and the complex structure of the environment makes it difficult to assess with confidence their abundance and density. In general, capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling (DS) are used to estimate demographic parameters of reptiles in these complex habitats. CMR may be expensive in terms of time, materials and sampling effort, while DS is strongly biased when animals lying on the transect line are overlooked. In this study, we applied a combination of CMR and hierarchical distance sampling (HDS) to estimate the density of the Common Wall Lizard (Podarcis muralis), a widespread Mediterranean terrestrial reptile. We randomly placed linear transects in a deciduous woodland (i.e. Castanea sativa), in a coniferous plantation forest (Pinus nigra) and in a dry prairie habitat, and we applied a hierarchical mark-recapture distance sampling (HMRDS) protocol. Density estimates were similar between the deciduous woodland (47 individuals/ha) and the dry prairie habitat (44 individuals/ha), while markedly lower in the coniferous plantation forest (13 individuals/ha). HMRDS data, analyzed in a Bayesian framework, showed the importance of correcting for the assumption of complete detection on the transect line, in all the three habitat types. Therefore, our approach should be useful when assessing the density of small and cryptic terrestrial animals, not only in forest but also in habitat with an apparently less complex vegetation structure.

The Efficacy of Video Cameras to Account for Northern Bobwhites Flushed, but Undetected During Aerial Surveys

Over the past 20 years, conventional distance sampling from a helicopter platform has been used to estimate northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter, bobwhite) density over large areas of rangeland vegetation. However, it has been speculated that aerial surveys can complicate the ability to meet the distance sampling assumption of detecting 100% of the target objects on the transect line due to the restricted observer view from the helicopter. We attempted to use video cameras to determine whether missed detections occurred and whether digital methods could improve the precision of bobwhite density estimates. Our objectives were to 1) determine whether video cameras are a viable option to detect if coveys are flushing behind the helicopter and missed by observers, 2) determine whether coveys are flushing underneath the helicopter and missed by observers, and 3) explore the use of video cameras in a mark-recapture distance sampling (MRDS) framework. We recorded video while traversing line-transects with a helicopter during 4 distance-sampling surveys across 2 ranches in South Texas, USA. For objective 1, we reviewed footage from cameras with a backward-facing view and detected only 1 pair of bobwhites (0.001% of 889 coveys detected) that flushed on video footage recorded during the surveys but were unnoticed by observers. These results indicated that when coveys flushed, they rarely flushed behind the helicopter, and the helicopter flew at what seemed to be the proper speed and altitude to detect late flushes. For objective 2, we reviewed footage from a helicopter-mounted camera that was recorded within a swath underneath the helicopter’s center. We recorded 22 flushes within the swath, none of which was missed by the observers in the helicopter; as a result, we could not complete an MRDS analysis in Program Distance. This study improved confidence in fulfilling the assumptions of distance sampling and resulting density estimates but was limited to flushing birds only.

An on-ice aerial survey of the Kane Basin polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation

There is an imminent need to collect information on distribution and abundance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to understand how they are affected by the ongoing decrease in Arctic sea ice. The Kane Basin (KB) subpopulation is a group of high-latitude polar bears that ranges between High Arctic Canada and NW Greenland around and north of the North Water polynya (NOW). We conducted a line transect distance sampling aerial survey of KB polar bears during 28 April–12 May 2014. A total of 4160 linear kilometers were flown in a helicopter over fast ice in the fjords and over offshore pack ice between 76° 50′ and 80° N′. Using a mark-recapture distance sampling protocol, the estimated abundance was 190 bears (95% lognormal CI: 87–411; CV 39%). This estimate is likely negatively biased to an unknown degree because the offshore sectors of the NOW with much open water were not surveyed because of logistical and safety reasons. Our study demonstrated that aerial surveys may be a feasible method for obtaining abundance estimates for small subpopulations of polar bears.

Abundance and Potential Biological Removal of Common Dolphins Subject to Fishery Impacts in South Australian Waters

Conservation management of wildlife species should be underpinned by knowledge of their distribution and abundance, as well as impacts of human activities on their populations and habitats. Common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) are subject to incidental capture in a range of Australia’s commercial fisheries including gill netting, purse seining and mid-water trawling. The impact these fishery interactions have on common dolphin populations is uncertain, as estimates of abundance are lacking, particularly for the segments of the populations at risk of bycatch and in greater need of protection. Here we used double-observer platform aerial surveys and mark-recapture distance sampling methods to estimate the abundance of common dolphins in 2011 over an area of 42,438 km2in central South Australia, where incidental mortality of common dolphins due to fisheries bycatch is the highest. We also used the potential biological removal (PBR) method to estimate sustainable levels of human-caused mortality for this segment of the population. The estimated abundance of common dolphins was 21,733 (CV = 0.25; 95% CI = 13,809–34,203) in austral summer/autumn and 26,504 in winter/spring (CV = 0.19; 95% CI = 19,488–36,046). Annual PBR estimates, assuming a conservative maximum population growth rate ofRmax= 0.02 and a recovery factor ofFr= 0.5 for species of unknown conservation status, ranged from 95 (summer/autumn) to 120 dolphins (winter/spring), and from 189 (summer/autumn) to 239 dolphins (winter/spring) with anRmax= 0.04. Our results indicate that common dolphins are an abundant dolphin species in waters over the central South Australian continental shelf (up to 100 m deep). Based on the 2011 abundance estimates of this species, the highest estimated bycatch of common dolphins (423 mortalities in 2004/05) in the southern Australian region exceeded the precautionary PBR estimates for this population segment. Recent bycatch levels appear to be below PBR estimates, but low observer coverage and underreporting of dolphin mortalities by fishers means that estimates of dolphin bycatch rates are not robust. The effects of cumulative human impacts on common dolphins are not well understood, and thus we recommend a precautionary management approach to manage common dolphin bycatch based on local abundance estimates.

Double-observer distance sampling improves the accuracy of density estimates for a threatened arboreal mammal

Abstract Context Determining population size or density is often fundamental for wildlife conservation. For nocturnal species, indices are commonly used in place of abundance estimates, with spotlighting indices (e.g. sighting rate per km) being prevalent. Distance sampling is a collection of techniques that provide estimates of wildlife abundance from line-transect data, by correcting raw counts for imperfect detection. These methods have rarely been used to assess the abundance of nocturnal arboreal mammals. Aims To develop and evaluate a method for estimating the abundance and density of nocturnal arboreal mammals using double-observer distance sampling, and to apply the approach to a survey of the southern greater glider (Petauroides volans) in the Strathbogie Ranges, Victoria, Australia. Methods Two observers, 15–20 min apart, surveyed 25 randomly located 500 m transects, and recorded greater gliders using spotlights and binoculars. Densities and abundances were derived from the line-transect data by using mark–recapture distance sampling (MRDS) models and were compared with conventional distance sampling analysis (CDS). Key results Using the double-observer approach, we estimated an overall density of 0.96 gliders ha−1 (95% CI 0.60–1.50), giving a population estimate of 24 575 greater gliders across the Strathbogie Ranges (25 865 ha, 95% CI 15 620–38 661). The corresponding estimates for the study area derived using CDS applied to either both observers’ observations or to the first observer’s observations only, were 87% and 53% respectively, of the MRDS estimate. The analysis confirmed that the probability of detection of gliders along the transect line was less than one, justifying the use of the double-observer method to obtain accurate estimates of abundance. Conclusions The low detectability of greater gliders means that uncorrected spotlight counts will underestimate abundance, as will CDS. The double-observer method corrects for the negative bias associated with raw counts, enabling more accurate estimation of abundance for survey, monitoring and management purposes. Implications We recommend that double-observer distance sampling is adopted as a standard technique for estimating the abundance of greater gliders. The double-observer method potentially has wider relevance for assessing population size of other arboreal mammals, providing the assumptions of the approach can be met.

Mark‐Recapture Distance Sampling for Aerial Surveys of Ungulates on Rangelands

ABSTRACTAerial surveys are an efficient technique for counting animals over large geographic areas such as rangelands. In southwestern rangelands, aerial surveys are routinely conducted for ungulates, with the implicit understanding that abundance estimates represent an undercount. Distance sampling can correct for visibility bias, but assumes perfect detection on the survey line, a condition often violated in aerial surveys of ungulates. The incorporation of mark‐resight methods into the distance‐sampling framework, termed mark‐recapture distance sampling (MRDS), corrects for both visibility bias and imperfect detection on the survey line. However, the use of MRDS introduces logistical and technical constraints that may not be practical for aerial surveys. We conducted aerial surveys of ungulates on rangelands in south Texas, USA, to evaluate the feasibility and performance of MRDS relative to conventional distance sampling (CDS) and multiple covariate distance sampling (MCDS). We conducted surveys prior to and after leaf‐fall in 2013–2015 to test the hypothesis that distance sampling corrected for changes in visibility bias. We surveyed white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus), collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), and feral swine (Sus scrofa) on 4 sites. Each site was surveyed seasonally for 2 years; twice both prior to (Nov) and after leaf‐fall (Feb). Probability of detection on survey lines for each species was high (range = 0.82–0.97) and the average for each species was similar between seasons (0.89 and 0.92 during pre and post leaf‐fall, respectively). The MRDS density estimates often were only ~10% greater than CDS and MCDS estimates; all population estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Further, CDS and MCDS estimates were similar indicating that measured covariates (seat position, vegetation type, and cluster size) contributed little towards detection probabilities. Despite similar average probability of detection for all species before and after leaf‐fall (0.47 and 0.51, respectively), deer and nilgai population estimates were 22–59% lower during fall surveys than winter surveys. The discrepancy between consistent probability of detections with different population estimates suggests that availability bias, which cannot be addressed with distance sampling, was an issue. Overall, the MRDS technique addressed imperfect detection on the survey line and generated probabilities of detection in the survey area consistent with previous studies done in Texas. However, the extra costs (~US$13,000) and logistical hurdles to preserve observer independence for a small increase in precision of population estimates may not be justifiable. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

Estimated Abundances of Cetacean Species in the Northeast Atlantic from Norwegian Shipboard Surveys Conducted in 2014–2018

A ship-based mosaic survey of Northeast Atlantic cetaceans was conducted over a 5-year period between 2014–2018. The area surveyed extends from the North Sea in the south (southern boundary at 53oN), to the ice edge of the Barents Sea and the Greenland Sea. Survey vessels were equipped with 2 independent observer platforms that detected whales in passing mode and applied tracking procedures for the target species, common minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata acutorostrata). Here we present abundance estimates for all non-target species for which there were sufficient sightings. We estimate the abundance of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) to be 11,387 (CV=0.17, 95% CI: 8,072–16,063), of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) to be 10,708 (CV=0.38, 95% CI: 4,906–23,370), of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) to be 5,704 (CV=0.26, 95% CI: 3,374–9,643), of killer whales (Orcinus orca) to be 15,056 (CV=0.29, 95% CI: 8,423–26,914), of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) to be 255,929 (CV=0.20, 95% CI: 172,742–379,175), dolphins of genus Lagenorhynchus to be 192,767 (CV=0.25, 95% CI: 114,033–325,863), and finally of northern bottlenose whales (Hyperoodon ampullatus) to be 7,800 (CV=0.28, 95% CI: 4,373–13,913). Additionally, our survey effort in the Norwegian Sea in 2015 contributed to the 6th North Atlantic Sightings Survey (NASS) and the survey was extended into the waters north and east of Iceland around Jan Mayen island. This NASS extension, along with our Norwegian Sea survey in 2015, was used to estimate the abundance of fin whales, humpback whales, and sperm whales. All estimates presented used mark-recapture distance sampling techniques and were thus corrected for perception bias. Our estimates do not account for additional variance due to distributional shifts between years or biases due to availability or responsive movement.

Estimated Abundances of Cetacean Species in the Northeast Atlantic from Two Multiyear Surveys Conducted by Norwegian Vessels between 2002–2013

Two shipboard line-transect surveys of the Northeast Atlantic were conducted between 2002–2007 and 2008–2013 to meet the ongoing requirements of the Revised Management Procedure (RMP) for common minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata acutorostrata) developed by the International Whaling Commission’s Scientific Committee. Here we present estimated abundances for non-target species for which there were sufficient sightings, including fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), killer whales (Orcinus orca), harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), and dolphins of genus Lagenorhynchus. The 2 surveys were conducted using a multiyear mosaic survey design with 2 independent observer platforms operating in passing mode, each with 2 observers. The abundances of Lagenorhynchus spp. from the 2002–2007 survey were estimated using single-platform standard distance sampling methods because of uncertainty in identifying duplicate sightings. All other estimates were derived using mark-recapture distance sampling techniques applied to a combined-platform dataset of observations, correcting for perception bias. Most notably, we find that the abundance of humpback whales, similar in both survey periods, has doubled since the 1990s with the most striking changes occurring in the Barents Sea. We also show that the pattern in distribution and abundance of fin whales and sperm whales is consistent with our earlier surveys, and that abundances of small odontocete species, which were not estimated in earlier surveys, show stable distributions with some variation in their estimates. Our estimates do not account for distributional shifts between years or correct for biases due to availability or responsive movement.

Mark recapture distance sampling: using acoustics to estimate the fraction of dolphins missed by observers during shipboard line-transect surveys

Cetacean abundance estimation often relies on distance sampling methods using shipboard visual line-transect surveys, which assumes that all animals on the trackline are detected and that the detection of animals decreases with increasing distance from the trackline. Mark–Recapture Distance Sampling (MRDS) typically employs a secondary visual observation team and may be used to identify the fraction of animals detected on the trackline when it is suspected that animals may have been missed. For species that are difficult to detect using visual observation methods, such as deep-diving species or those with cryptic surfacing behavior, this secondary team may be prone to the same limitations in detection as the primary observation team and alternative modes of detection may improve estimates. Here we examine the potential use of passive acoustic detection as a secondary platform for MRDS of rough-toothed dolphins (Steno bredanensis) during a combined visual and acoustic shipboard line-transect survey. The average trackline detection probability for rough-toothed dolphins was less than one for both the trial configuration (average $$ p\left( 0 \right) = 0.45 $$ for the visual team) and independent observer configuration (average $$ p\left( 0 \right) = 0.37 $$ for the visual, $$ p\left( 0 \right) = 0.77 $$ for the acoustic and $$ p\left( 0 \right) = 0.84 $$ for both teams combined). This study, while limited in scope, strongly suggests that passive acoustic methods may be an effective alternative for estimating $$ p\left( 0 \right) $$ for some cetaceans species.

Developing and assessing a density surface model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework with a focus on uncertainty: insights from simulations and an application to fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus).

Density surface models (DSMs) are an important tool in the conservation and management of cetaceans. Most previous applications of DSMs have adopted a two-step approach to model fitting (hereafter referred to as the Two-Stage Method), whereby detection probabilities are first estimated using distance sampling detection functions and subsequently used as an offset when fitting a density-habitat model. Although variance propagation techniques have recently become available for the Two-Stage Method, most previous applications have not propagated detection probability uncertainty into final density estimates. In this paper, we describe an alternative approach for fitting DSMs based on Bayesian hierarchical inference (hereafter referred to as the Bayesian Method), which is a natural framework for simultaneously propagating multiple sources of uncertainty into final estimates. Our framework includes (1) a mark-recapture distance sampling observation model that can accommodate two team line transect data, (2) an informed prior for the probability a group of animals is at the surface and available for detection (i.e. surface availability) (3) a density-habitat model incorporating spatial smoothers and (4) a flexible compound Poisson-gamma model for count data that incorporates overdispersion and zero-inflation. We evaluate our method and compare its performance to the Two-Stage Method with simulations and an application to line transect data of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) off the east coast of the USA. Simulations showed that both methods had low bias (<1.5%) and confidence interval coverage close to the nominal 95% rate when variance was propagated from the first step. Results from the fin whale analysis showed that density estimates and predicted distribution patterns were largely similar among methods; however, the coefficient of variation of the final abundance estimate more than doubled (0.14 vs 0.31) when detection variance was correctly propagated into final estimates. An analysis of the variance components demonstrated that overall detectability as well as surface availability contributed substantial amounts of variance in the final abundance estimates whereas uncertainty in mean group size contributed a negligible amount. Our method provides a Bayesian alternative to DSMs that incorporates much of the flexibility available in the Two-Stage Method. In addition, these results demonstrate the degree to which uncertainty can be underestimated if certain components of a DSM are assumed fixed.

Estimates of the Abundance of Cetaceans in the Central North Atlantic based on the NASS Icelandic and Faroese Shipboard Surveys Conducted in 2015

The North Atlantic Sightings Survey (NASS), the sixth in a series of surveys conducted between 1987 and 2015, was conducted in June/July 2015 and covered a large area of the northern North Atlantic. The Icelandic and Faroese ship survey component of the NASS covered the area between the Faroe Islands and East Greenland from latitude 52° to 72° N. The survey used 3 vessels and an independent double-platform configuration with each platform staffed by a minimum of 2 observers. Here we present both uncorrected abundance estimates derived using Multiple Covariates Distance Sampling, and corrected abundance estimates derived using Mark-Recapture Distance Sampling, for the following species: fin (Balaenoptera physalus), common minke (B. acutorstrata), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), blue (B. musculus), sei (B. borealis), sperm (Physeter macrocephalus), long-finned pilot (Globicephala melas) and northern bottlenose (Hyperoodon ampullatus) whales as well as white-beaked (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) and white-sided (L. acutus) dolphins. We then compare these estimates to those from previous NASS and put them into context with estimates from adjoining areas of the North Atlantic.

Abundance estimates and habitat preferences of bottlenose dolphins reveal the importance of two gulfs in South Australia

Informed conservation management of marine mammals requires an understanding of population size and habitat preferences. In Australia, such data are needed for the assessment and mitigation of anthropogenic impacts, including fisheries interactions, coastal zone developments, oil and gas exploration and mining activities. Here, we present large-scale estimates of abundance, density and habitat preferences of southern Australian bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) over an area of 42,438km2 within two gulfs of South Australia. Using double-observer platform aerial surveys over four strata and mark-recapture distance sampling analyses, we estimated 3,493 (CV = 0.21; 95%CI = 2,327-5,244) dolphins in summer/autumn, and 3,213 (CV = 0.20; 95%CI = 2,151-4,801) in winter/spring of 2011. Bottlenose dolphin abundance and density was higher in gulf waters across both seasons (0.09-0.24 dolphins/km2) compared to adjacent shelf waters (0.004–0.04 dolphins/km2). The high densities of bottlenose dolphins in the two gulfs highlight the importance of these gulfs as a habitat for the species. Habitat modelling associated bottlenose dolphins with shallow waters, flat seafloor topography, and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in summer/autumn and lower SSTs in winter/spring. Spatial predictions showed high dolphin densities in northern and coastal gulf sections. Distributional data should inform management strategies, marine park planning and environmental assessments of potential anthropogenic threats to this protected species.