Marginal Tax Rates Research Articles

Loss aversion and indifference to tax rates: Evidence from tax filing data

A fundamental tenet of economics is that agents respond to incentives. When filing their tax returns, Swedish taxpayers get information about whether they are below or above a salient tax kink, information that could affect tax-filing behavior. Ceteris paribus, rational taxpayers would be more likely to claim deductions when facing a higher marginal tax rate. They also get informed whether they can expect a tax refund or have taxes due. This information would be of no importance to rational individuals, but a loss averse taxpayer would be more likely to claim deductions if having taxes due than if expecting a refund. We study the probability of claiming deductions in an RDK framework using register data on the universe of Swedish taxpayers over an eight-year period. We find a strong causal effect of taxes due, while the response to the marginal tax kink is insignificant. The results are similar for inexperienced (young) and experienced (old) taxpayers. Hence, loss aversion is much more decisive than standard economic incentives in predicting deduction behavior.

The contribution of tax-benefit instruments to income redistribution in Italy

Over the last two decades, interest in understanding what determines the redistributive role of tax-benefit systems has burgeoned worldwide. In the case of Italy, previous analyses tended to focus on quantifying the contribution of marginal tax rates, deductions and tax credits to the redistributive capacity of the personal income tax (PIT), while neglecting the effect of proportional taxes, social insurance contributions (SICs) and tax-free cash benefits on income redistribution. This paper aims to address this gap by applying Gini-based decomposition methodologies (Onrubia et al., 2014; Urban, 2014) to the vertical and horizontal effects of the Italian tax-benefit system for the 2018 year at the national level and the macroregional level. The findings show that tax-benefit instruments different from progressive taxation can contribute up to more than 50% of the redistributive effect with marked spatial differences regarding social transfers and SICs.

How relative marginal tax rates affect establishment entry at state borders

How relative marginal tax rates affect establishment entry at state borders

Nexus Between Tax Structure and Income Inequality in India

This study empirically examines the long-run effect of tax structure on income inequality in India. It considers annual time-series data from 1980 to 2019. The unit root and Johansen cointegration tests substantiate a long-run relationship between tax variables and income inequality. We employ Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) techniques for the baseline analysis. For a robustness check, we utilize the Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) technique. The results show that the top marginal tax rate (TMTR) reduces income inequality, whereas customs duty (CD) significantly increases income inequality. Personal income tax (PIT), corporate income tax (CIT), and excise duty (ED) have no significant association with income inequality. In addition, GDP per capita significantly reduces income inequality, whereas GDP per capita squared aggravates income inequality, reflecting the absence of the Kuznets hypothesis in India. Human capital measured by mean years of schooling (MYS) also significantly worsens income inequality. Our results suggest that the Indian government should increase TMTR and reduce customs duty (CD) in order to improve income distribution.

High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1 Percent? Lessons from a Life-Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk

This paper argues that high marginal labor income tax rates on top earners are an effective tool for social insurance even when households have high labor supply elasticity, households make dynamic savings decisions, and policies have general equilibrium effects. We construct a large-scale overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity risk, show that it has a realistic wealth distribution, and numerically characterize the optimal top marginal rate. We find that marginal tax rates for top 1 percent earners of 79 percent are optimal as long as the model earnings and wealth distributions display a degree of concentration as observed in US data. (JEL D15, D31, H21, H24, H55, J22, J31)

Applying the Investment Multiplier to Identify Key Points of Economic Growth

The crisis phenomena irregularity due to the COVID-19 pandemic requires new, to a certain extent, non-routine tools for their settlement, namely the action effect enhancers of the state and private investors to develop the economy in conditions of shrinking volumes of available financial resources. The paper proposes the Investment Multiplier (IM) as such a tool. The author's model was generated based on a detailed description of developing multiplier processes to analyze its action. The study aims to estimate the IM values of the economies of Kurgan, Sverdlovsk, and Chelyabinsk, the most industrially developed Russian regions, and identify the main points of their economic growth. The key research method was regression analysis. The present study establishes interconnectivity between marginal propensity and savings, marginal propensity and imports, marginal tax rate, and investment accelerator, and their influence on the regional multiplier. From a position of investment multiplier, the authors try to narrow the research gap in how investment policies influence the economic growth of the Russian regions. The study results determine IM values for the analyzed regions, identifying their differences and reasons. The key points of economic growth in these regions were identified. The scientific novelty involves applying changes in regional multiplier processes' dynamics to determine the key development points. The practical significance is that the IM value is an analytical tool that will identify existing key points of regional economic development and, by managing the IM value, create new points for investments with a large-scale multiplier effect, thus developing the regional economy. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-02-05 Full Text: PDF

Homeownership and taxes: How the TCJA altered the tax code's treatment of housing

AbstractThe federal government has long promoted homeownership through various provisions in the US income tax code. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) renewed interest and debate about the treatment of housing via the tax code, particularly with respect to the mortgage interest deduction and the limitation on deductions for state and local taxes. We document the extent that the TCJA magnifies the long‐standing unequal treatment of debt and equity financing of homeownership in the tax code. Our analysis indicates that most households no longer benefit from mortgage interest and property tax deductions. We also show how the limitations on the deduction of state and local taxes alter the costs associated with homeownership across geographic areas, and we provide detailed calculations of the average and marginal tax rates at which housing‐related expenses are deducted. The former are relevant to the tenure choice decision, the latter to the quantity demanded decision. Finally, we document that the lost tax savings associated with the inability to benefit from mortgage interest and property tax expenditures are often small relative to the primary tax benefit owners still enjoy: the nontaxation of the return on equity invested in the home.

Increasing Hours Worked: Moonlighting Responses to a Large Tax Reform

Moonlighting is increasingly popular in OECD countries, with 5 to 10 percent of workers holding two or more jobs. However, little is known about the responsiveness of moonlighting to financial incentives due to the lack of identifying variation. This paper studies a unique reform in Germany that allowed workers to hold small secondary jobs tax-free, decreasing the marginal tax rate by between 19.5 to 66 pp. I show that the reform resulted in a dramatic increase in moonlighting that was not offset by reductions in primary earnings and that hours constraints are a key determinant of moonlighting. (JEL H24, H31, J22, J31)

Bunching in rank-dependent optimal income tax schedules

Considering optimal non-linear income tax problems when the social welfare function only depends on ranks as in Yaari (Econometrica 55(1):95–115, 1987) and weights agreeing with the Lorenz quasi-ordering, we extend the analysis of Simula and Trannoy (Am Econ J Econ Policy, 2021) in two directions. First, we establish conditions under which bunching does not occur in the social optimum. We find a sufficient condition on individual preferences, which appears as a reinforcement of the Spence-Mirrlees condition. In particular, the marginal dis-utility of gross income should be convex, but less convex the higher the productivity. We also show that, for all productivity distributions with a log-concave survival function, bunching is precluded under the maximin, Gini, and “illfare-ranked single-series Ginis”. Second, we turn to a discrete population setting, and provide an “ABC” formula for optimal marginal tax rates, which is related to those for a continuum of types found in Simula and Trannoy (2021), but remain essentially distinct.

Estimating the elasticity of taxable income: Evidence from top Japanese taxpayers

This study aims to estimate the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) with regard to the net-of-tax rate, precisely in terms of potential for the margin arising from the behavioral response. We use panel data from top Japanese taxpayers in Tokyo during 1986–1989 and focus on the tax policy changes caused by the 1987–1989 comprehensive tax reform, which substantially reduced the top marginal tax rates. It is found that the ETI with regard to the net-of-tax rate is approximately 0.158–0.226, considerably lower than those for the United States and many European countries. One possible reason for the small ETI estimates is the absence of the behavioral response in terms of choice of deductions in this study.

Evaluating Japan's corporate income tax reform using firm-specific effective tax rates

This study evaluates Japan's corporate tax reforms in the 2010 s by estimating the effective average tax rate (EATR) and effective marginal tax rate (EMTR), common methods for international comparisons, using data on Japanese firms. Japan lowered its statutory tax rate while it expanded the tax base. This study analyzes the differing effects of the tax rate reduction and depreciation method reform by conducting simulations to represent the effects of each reform on the EATR and EMTR. Japan's tax reform in the 2010 s reduced both EATR and EMTR by lowering tax rates. The reform of depreciation methods had little effect on EATR and raised EMTR, but had a limited effect on companies with eligible depreciable assets. The overall effect of the corporate income tax reform is that the effect of the tax rate reduction exceeded that of the depreciation method reforms, and thus the EMTR also declined.

How Would a Permanently Refundable Child and Dependent Care Credit Affect Eligibility, Benefits, and Incentives?

The federal Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes child care costs for working families. Before 2021, the CDCC was nonrefundable, so only families with positive tax liability after other deductions benefited. I estimate how CDCC eligibility, benefits, and marginal tax rates would change if the credit were made permanently refundable. Under refundability, some 5 percent of single parents gain eligibility and receive on average over $1,000 annually. Eligibility increases are largest among Black and Hispanic households. Increases in marginal tax rates among moderate-income taxpayers are small.

Determinants of the Proportional Income Tax Revenue: A Comparative Assessment of Russia and Bulgaria

Initially flat-rate income taxes only existed in tax havens, but presently, 26 countries have adopted the proportional tax as a fiscal instrument to increase budget revenues and accelerate economic growth. This article empirically examines the determinants affecting the revenues from a proportional income tax with non-taxable minimum (negative flat tax) used in Russia and a proportional income tax without non-taxable minimum (pure flat tax) used in Bulgaria. The research objective is to estimate the impact of the macroeconomic variables such as gross disposable income, employment, gross capital formation and government expenditures on the revenue from the proportional income tax in Russia and Bulgaria. The study employs an ordinary least square (OLS) method and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 2008–2020. For Russia, quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period from March 2008 till December 2020 were used, including 52 observations. For Bulgaria, quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period from March 2008 till March 2020 were used, including 49 observations. Basing on the results, it may be inferred that the increase of the gross disposable income and higher marginal tax rate of the proportional tax with a non-taxable minimum collect more nominal revenue in the budget, as Russia’s example showed. The increase of the employment related with a lower marginal tax rate of the proportional income tax without a non-taxable minimum collect less nominal revenue as Bulgaria’s example shows. A standpoint of the revenue in the budget the proportional income tax with non-taxable minimum is more effective than proportional income tax without non-taxable minimum.

Personal Income Taxes in the Middle East and North Africa: Prospects and Possibilities

With the exception of a few North African countries, personal income taxes (PITs) play little or no role in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), often yielding less than 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in revenue. This paper examines how PITs have evolved in recent decades, and what they might look like in the next 20 years. Throughout the region, top marginal tax rates on labour and business income of individuals have declined substantially, a trend that mirrors reductions in advanced and developing economies. Taxation of passive capital income has changed very little, and the revenue contribution from this source remains low throughout the region, averaging less than 1 percent of GDP and concentrated in oil-importing non-fragile states. Social security contributions (SSCs) have increased in importance in nearly all MENA countries, and some countries have introduced additional payroll taxes and levies. The combination of reduced marginal tax rates, light taxation of income from capital and business activities, and increases in SSCs has resulted in income tax systems that create disincentives to work and incentives for informality, and contribute little to government revenue and income redistribution. Given differences in economic and political structures, demographics, and starting points, the path to PIT and SSC reforms will vary across the region. Countries with relatively mature PIT/SSC systems, where revenue performance has improved in the past two decades, will increasingly need to balance revenue and equity objectives against efficiency objectives (in particular, labour market incentives and informality). Countries without a PIT will have to weigh whether a consumption tax/SSC system that mimics a flat tax on labour income is sufficient to diversify revenue away from oil, and whether to adopt PITs to address rising income and wealth inequality. Finally, fragile states, which face more political volatility and have weaker fiscal institutions than non-fragile states, will have to focus on simplicity of tax design and collection to be able to raise revenue from PITs.

Shapley Value and Income Taxation

Income taxation is modeled as a spatial voting game where Shapley value leads to a simple linear tax function on gross income with a single marginal tax rate and a universal basic income subsidy. Shapley net income is not generally in the game core; therefore, it is inherently unstable and subject to relentless pressure from higher gross income individuals to reduce their taxes and increase their net incomes.

Rising skill premium and the dynamics of optimal capital and labor taxation

With capital‐skill complementarity, the secular decline in the price of capital equipment due to equipment‐specific technological progress (ESTP) keeps pushing up the demand for skilled relative to unskilled labor and raising the skill premium. This paper quantitatively characterizes the dynamics of optimal taxation in response. Two main results emerge, regardless of whether the Ramsey (1927) or the Mirrlees (1971) approach is adopted. First, a tax on capital equipment corrects the “pecuniary externalities” caused by ESTP. The correction prescribes a downward or an upward adjustment of tax rates over time, depending on whether ESTP takes place at an accelerated or a decelerated pace. Second, both Ramsey and Mirrlees approaches prescribe an increasing marginal tax rate on labor income over time. Interestingly, we find that the prescribed pattern of optimal taxation resembles the empirical decline in capital taxes and the increase in labor taxes observed in the United States. In particular, despite the significant rise in the skill premium, the welfare gains of tax reform toward optimal Ramsey taxes are modest and small.

Taxpayer Bunching Evidence: Responsiveness at Kink Points of the Honduran Personal Income Tax

This paper studies the response of taxpayers to changes in the marginal tax rate or kinks, estimated through compensated elasticities by applying the bunching methodology to Honduran administrative data on Personal Income Tax (PIT) from the period 2011 – 2018. Due to missing data issues at the first kink, estimates are only generated for the other two kinks. The results show a low response, reflected by a compensated elasticity around 0.09. Higher response on wage earners was found at the second kink. Further analysis is done by type of taxpayer, income source, third-party reporting, gender, and age.

Labor Taxation and the Uneven Growth of Wage Inequality

Abstract Wage inequality has risen in some rich countries but not others, and where it has risen, the divergence has been mainly between middle and high earners. I argue that taxation is an important factor driving this uneven growth of pretax wage inequality. In some countries, marginal tax rates on upper-middle incomes are high and stable, reducing the income that workers receive relative to the costs borne by employers. In others, marginal taxes on upper-middle incomes have been reduced, in some instances considerably, which incentivizes pretax income growth. I show that marginal tax rates are strongly correlated with pretax 90/10 and 90/50 wage ratios. The results are robust to alternative estimators that control for unobserved heterogeneity and other statistical issues. The findings suggest that, in an era of liberalized wage bargaining and decreased economic coordination, taxation may have taken on a greater role as an inequality-reducing institution.

Financial literacy and the timing of tax-preferred savings account withdrawals

Tax deductions on contributions to registered savings vehicles are a common policy tool used by governments in many industrialized countries to encourage people to save for retirement. However, these plans do not typically lock in funds, which means savers may also withdraw before retirement when their marginal tax rates are still high and forgo the tax benefit. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which pre-retirement savings withdrawals respond to changes in the net-of-tax benefit of withdrawing and whether such behavior depends on the saver’s financial literacy. To that end, we link respondents of a nationally representative financial capability survey from Canada to over 15 years of administrative tax data. Our results show that the correlation between savings withdrawals and the effective marginal tax rate is negative for those with higher financial literacy, but much weaker and sometimes statistically insignificant for those with lower financial literacy. The findings suggest that financial literacy is an important determinant of the extent to which tax-deductible savings plans are used efficiently.

Institutional and Political Determinants of Statutory Tax Rates: Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the extent to which institutional and political factors explain statutory tax rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In particular, it examines the effect of regulatory quality, political accountability, political fragmentation, the electoral cycle, and ideological orientation on corporate income tax (CIT) rates as well as top marginal personal income tax (PIT) rates during 1990–2017. Different from advanced economies, our results suggest that in SSA institutional (structural) factors are more important than political (conjunctural) ones. Better institutions (proxied by higher regulatory quality) are associated with lower tax rates, whereas weak political accountability (proxied by longer government tenures) and greater fragmentation (linked to polarization) lead to higher tax rates. The electoral cycle is weakly associated with higher CIT, and contrary to findings in advanced economies, the ideological orientation of the government does not appear to influence statutory tax rates in SSA.