Mantle Viscosity Research Articles

Ice age effects on the satellite-derived [formula omitted] datum: Mapping the sensitivity to 3D variations in mantle viscosity

Studies of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) based on spherically symmetric viscoelastic Earth models have argued that the rate of change of the degree 2 zonal harmonic of the Earth's geopotential, or J˙2, provides an important constraint on mean viscosity in the deep mantle (Mitrovica and Peltier, 1993; Nakada et al., 2015; Lau et al., 2016). To refine this constraint, we compute Fréchet kernels using an adjoint methodology that reveal the sensitivity of the datum to 3D variations in mantle viscosity. We demonstrate that the mantle sensitivity of the datum is largely limited to the region below the ancient Laurentide ice sheet that covered Canada and significant portions of the northeastern United States at Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In the bottom half of the lower mantle, this region of maximum sensitivity lies outside the location of Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs) imaged from seismic tomographic studies. Thus, if the low shear velocity of these provinces originates from thermal effects, previous inferences of viscosity based upon the J˙2 datum are likely higher than the actual mean viscosity of the lower mantle.

A new analysis of the intraplate stress regime and stress ratio in numerically modeled mantle convection

I propose a new analysis method for determining the intraplate stress in geodynamic models using a series of numerical simulations of mantle convection in 3D spherical-shell geometry. In the present study, the intraplate stress was evaluated from numerically obtained velocity and stress fields of mantle, and quantitatively classified into nine types by analyzing the principal deviatoric stress axes and the “stress ratio,” which is a continuous parameter accounting for the stress regimes. The sensitivity of model parameters and physical conditions associated with the basic characteristics of mantle convection, such as internal heating ratio, viscosity stratification, and temperature-dependent viscosity of the mantle as well as viscoplastic rheology that causes plate-like surface motion, on the intraplate stress regimes were studied. The results demonstrated that the radial viscosity structure of the mantle interior strongly affected intraplate stress regimes, and the combination of increased viscosity in the lower mantle and the low-viscosity asthenosphere enhanced the pure strike-slip faulting regime in the stable part of plate interiors. The temporally averaged toroidal-poloidal ratio (T/P ratio) at the top surface of mantle convection with surface plate-like motion and the mantle's viscosity stratification generally ranged ~20–40%, which is comparable to the observed T/P ratio of present-day and past Earth. Under such Earth-like surface conditions, normal faulting regime with strike-slip component or strike-slip regime with normal faulting component, as well as pure strike-slip faulting regime, were broadly found in the stable parts of the plate interiors. From the definition of the stress regime in the present study, strike-slip faults on the real Earth are likely to occur where the strike-slip faulting component is dominant in the present models. The analysis method proposed herein is effective for evaluating the intraplate stress in research target regions, for which observation data is insufficient to determine the intraplate stress.

Lithospheric Erosion in the Patagonian Slab Window, and Implications for Glacial Isostasy

AbstractThe Patagonian slab window has been proposed to enhance the solid Earth response to ice mass load changes in the overlying Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields (NPI and SPI, respectively). Here, we present the first regional seismic velocity model covering the entire north‐south extent of the slab window. A slow velocity anomaly in the uppermost mantle indicates warm mantle temperature, low viscosity, and possibly partial melt. Low velocities just below the Moho suggest that the lithospheric mantle has been thermally eroded over the youngest part of the slab window. The slowest part of the anomaly is north of 49°S, implying that the NPI and the northern SPI overlie lower viscosity mantle than the southern SPI. This comprehensive seismic mapping of the slab window provides key evidence supporting the previously hypothesized connection between post‐Little Ice Age anthropogenic ice mass loss and rapid geodetically observed glacial isostatic uplift (≥4 cm/yr).

Upper Mantle Viscosity Underneath Northern Marguerite Bay, Antarctic Peninsula Constrained by Bedrock Uplift and Ice Mass Variability

AbstractWe constrain viscoelastic Earth rheology and recent ice‐mass change in the northern Marguerite Bay region of the Antarctic Peninsula. Global Positioning System (GPS) time series from Rothera and San Martin stations show bedrock uplift range of ∼−0.8–1.8 mm/year over 1999–2005 and 2016–2020 but ∼3.5–6.0 mm/year over ∼2005–2016. Digital elevation models reveal substantial surface lowering, but at a lower rate since ∼2009. Using these data, we show that an elastic‐only model cannot explain the non‐linear uplift of the GPS sites but that a layered viscoelastic model can. We show close agreement between GPS uplift changes and viscoelastic models with effective elastic lithosphere thickness and upper‐mantle viscosity ∼10–95 km and ∼0.1−9 × 1018 Pa s, respectively. Our viscosity estimate is consistent with a north‐south gradient in viscosity suggested by previous studies focused on specific regions within the Antarctic Peninsula and adds further evidence of the low viscosity upper mantle in the northern Antarctic Peninsula.

Antarctic upper mantle rheology

Abstract The Antarctic mantle and lithosphere are known to have large lateral contrasts in seismic velocity and tectonic history. These contrasts suggest differences in the response timescale of mantle flow across the continent, similar to those documented between the northeastern and southwestern upper mantle of North America. Glacial isostatic adjustment and geodynamical modelling rely on independent estimates of lateral variability in effective viscosity. Recent improvements in imaging techniques and the distribution of seismic stations now allow resolution of both lateral and vertical variability of seismic velocity, making detailed inferences about lateral viscosity variations possible. Geodetic and palaeosea-level investigations of Antarctica provide quantitative ways of independently assessing the 3D mantle viscosity structure. While observational and causal connections between inferred lateral viscosity variability and seismic velocity changes are qualitatively reconciled, significant improvements in the quantitative relations between effective viscosity anomalies and those imaged by P- and S-wave tomography have remained elusive. Here we describe several methods for estimating effective viscosity from S-wave velocity. We then present and compare maps of the viscosity variability beneath Antarctica based on the recent S-wave velocity model ANT-20 using three different approaches.

The impact of 3-D Earth structure on far-field sea level following interglacial West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

Prior to inferring ice sheet stability from past interglacial sea-level records, these records must first be corrected for the contaminating effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Typical GIA corrections, however, neglect variability in the signal that may be introduced by Earth's 3-D rheological structure. We predict sea-level changes due to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) over an idealized 6 kyr-duration interglacial using four viscoelastic Earth models. Two of these are 3-D viscosity models inferred from seismic tomography. The third is a 1-D (i.e., depth varying) viscosity model that is equivalent to the spherically averaged “background” viscosity profile adopted in both 3-D Earth models. The fourth is a 1-D model that has a higher upper mantle viscosity but still falls within the class of models inferred from independent global GIA studies. We find that the discrepancy between 3-D and 1-D Earth model calculations of sea level in the far field of the melt zone is of order 0.3 m or less, with the 1-D Earth models producing higher sea level than the 3-D simulations. This value is 10% of the global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise associated with modeled ice sheet collapse by the end of the model interglacial (∼3 m) and a similar fraction of far-field sea-level changes. However, the value is a significantly larger fraction (∼60%) of the geographically variable (i.e., non-GMSL) component of the far-field sea-level signal due to GIA associated with modeled WAIS collapse (±0.5 m). Neglecting lateral variations in Earth structure in modeling the response to excess melting of WAIS during the interglacial compounds any error introduced by neglecting such structure in predictions of interglacial sea-level change driven by the preceding glacial cycle.

The effects of non-Newtonian rheology in the upper mantle on relative sea level change and geodetic observables induced by glacial isostatic adjustment process

SUMMARY Studies of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) provide important constraints on the Earth's mantle viscosity. Most GIA models assume Newtonian viscosity through the mantle, but laboratory experimental studies of rock deformation, observational studies of seismic anisotropy, and modelling studies of mantle dynamics show that in the upper mantle non-Newtonian viscosity may be important. This study explores the non-Newtonian effects on the GIA induced variations in mantle stress and viscosity and on surface observables including vertical displacement, relative sea level (RSL) and gravity change. The recently updated and fully benchmarked software package CitcomSVE is used for GIA simulations. We adopt the ICE-6G ice deglaciation history, VM5a lower mantle and lithospheric viscosities, and a composite rheology that combines Newtonian and non-Newtonian viscosities for the upper mantle. Our results show that: (1) The mantle stress beneath glaciated regions increases significantly during deglaciation, leading to regionally reduced upper mantle viscosity by more than an order of magnitude. Such effects can be rather localized at the periphery of glaciated regions. However, non-Newtonian effects on far-field mantle viscosity are negligibly small. GIA induced stress is also significant in the lithosphere (∼30 MPa) and lower mantle (∼2 MPa). (2) The predicted RSL changes from non-Newtonian models display distinct features in comparison with the Newtonian model, including more rapid sea level falls associated with the rapid deglaciation at ∼14 000 yr ago followed by a more gradual sea level variation for sites near the centres of formerly glaciated regions, and an additional phase of sea level falls for the last ∼8000 yr for sites at the ice margins. Similar time-dependence associated with the deglaciation is also seen for rate of vertical displacement, suggesting a relatively slow present-day rates of vertical displacement and gravity change. These features can be explained by the non-Newtonian effects associated with a loading event which manifest a fast relaxation stage followed by a relative slow relaxation stage. Our results may provide GIA diagnoses for distinguishing non-Newtonian and Newtonian rheology.

Decadal to Centennial Timescale Mantle Viscosity Inferred From Modern Crustal Uplift Rates in Greenland

AbstractThe observed crustal uplift rates in Greenland are caused by the combined response of the solid Earth to both ongoing and past surface mass changes. Existing elastic Earth models and Maxwell linear viscoelastic GIA (glacial isostatic adjustment) models together underpredict the observed uplift rates. These models do not capture the ongoing mantle deformation induced by significant ice melting since the Little Ice Age. Using a simple Earth model within a Bayesian framework, we show that this recent mass loss can explain the data‐model misfits but only when a reduced mantle strength is considered. The inferred viscosity for sub‐centennial timescale mantle deformation is roughly one order of magnitude smaller than the upper mantle viscosity inferred from GIA analysis of geological data. Reconciliation of geological sea‐level and modern crustal motion data may require that the model effective viscosity be treated with greater sophistication than in the simple Maxwell rheological paradigm.

Carbon Cycling and Habitability of Massive Earth-like Exoplanets

Abstract As the number of detected rocky extrasolar planets increases, the question of whether their surfaces could be habitable is becoming more pertinent. On Earth, the long-term carbonate-silicate cycle is able to regulate surface temperatures over timescales larger than one million years. Elevated temperatures enhance weathering, removing CO2 from the atmosphere, which is subducted into the mantle. At mid-ocean ridges, CO2 is supplied to the atmosphere from the interior. The carbon degassing flux is controlled by the melting depth beneath mid-ocean ridges and the spreading rate, influenced by the pressure- and temperature-dependent mantle viscosity. The influences of temperature and pressure on mantle degassing become increasingly important for more massive planets. Here, we couple a thermal evolution model of Earth-like planets of different masses with a model of the long-term carbon cycle and assess their surface temperature evolution. We find that the spreading rate at 4.5 Gyr increases with planetary mass up to 3 Earth masses, since the temperature dependence of viscosity dominates over its pressure dependency. For higher-mass planets, pressure dependence dominates and the plates slow down. In addition, the effective melting depth at 4.5 Gyr as a function of planetary mass has its maximum at 3 M ⊕. Altogether, at 4.5 Gyr, the degassing rate and therefore surface temperature have their maximum at 3 M ⊕. This work emphasizes that both age and mass should be considered when predicting the habitability of exoplanets. Despite these effects, the long-term carbon cycle remains an effective mechanism that regulates the surface temperature of massive Earth-like planets.

Asthenospheric rheology beneath mainland China inferred from mantle flow simulation and shear-wave splitting measurements

Mantle rheology is an essential property to understand the dynamics and evolution of the Earth. Estimates of mantle viscosity date from Haskell's canonical estimate of 1021 Pa s. For the asthenosphere, as a mechanically weak layer beneath the lithosphere, estimates have varied over a large viscosity range from 4 × 1017 to 1 × 1022 Pa s. In this paper, we use global and regional tomography-based geodynamic models with lateral viscosity variations in both the lithosphere and the mantle to predict the asthenospheric flow field, then use D-Rex to calculate transverse isotropy axis which is taken as the proxy of the fast polarization direction of shear-wave splitting, and finally determine the asthensopheric viscosity beneath Mainland China under the constraints of seismic anisotropy examined by a shear-wave splitting technique. Our inference, 1.27–5.58 × 1020 Pa s, lies in the range of previous estimates, and is comparable to most global estimates inferred from global convection-related observables, glacial isostatic adjustment data, global long wavelength geoid anomalies or their combination, but slightly larger than asthenospheric viscosity in Africa (3.5 × 1019 Pa s) and global estimates (3–10 × 1019 Pa s) inferred from the shear-wave splitting measurements. These findings show asthenospheric viscosity inferred from shear-wave splitting data has a small spatial change (< one order of magnitude).

The Indian Ocean Geoid Low at a plume-slab overpass

The Indian Ocean Geoid Low (IOGL) appears as a prominent feature if the geoid is, as usual, shown with respect to the Earth's reference shape. However, if it is shown relative to hydrostatic equilibrium, i.e. including excess flattening, it appears as merely a regional low on a north-south trending belt of low geoid. For a mantle viscosity structure with an increase of 2–3 orders of magnitude from asthenosphere to lower mantle, which is suitable to explain the long-wavelength geoid, a geoid low can result from both negative density anomalies in the upper mantle and positive anomalies in the lower mantle. Here we propose that the IOGL can be explained due to a linear, approximately north-south-trending high-density anomaly in the lower mantle, which is crossed by a linear, approximately West-Southwest–East-Northeast trending low-density anomaly in the upper mantle. While the former can be explained due to its location in a region of former subduction and inbetween the two Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs), we propose here that the latter is due to an eastward outflow from the Kenya plume rising above the eastern edge of the African LLSVP. We show that, with realistic assumptions we can approximately match the size, shape and magnitude of the geoid low.

Passive margin inversion controlled by stability of the mantle lithosphere

Contractional deformation of passive continental margins may resemble early stages of induced subduction initiation. Mechanical instabilities are required to permit underthrusting of the oceanic plate. Therefore, the success of developing a new subduction zone will largely depend on the rheology of the mantle lithosphere. In this physical analogue modelling study, a range of mantle viscosities subject to different convergence rates serve as a proxy to simulate contraction of differently aged passive margins with the purpose of describing and quantifying passive margin deformation and mantle stability using the buoyancy number. The experiments illustrate distinct differences in geometry and length-scale of deformation as a function of lithospheric mantle strengths. The results indicate that deformation occurs at passive margins for intermediate strength lithospheric mantle and high strain rate. In contrast, low and high strength mantle lithospheres lead to dominantly intra-oceanic deformation or long wavelength buckling of the entire model, respectively. Our experiments portray an evolution in which early-stage deformation commences at the ocean-continent transition and is controlled by the ductile lower crust of the continent. In the next stage, shear localization through the formation of a decollement within the ductile passive margin crust favors underthrusting of the oceanic lithosphere, leading to a reduction of the area affected by deformation. Prior to underthrusting, the primary response of the lithosphere to compression is by folding at scaled wavelengths of 100–300 km and 500–1000 km, controlled by the strength of the mantle lithosphere.

Constraints on Mantle Viscosity From Slab Dynamics

AbstractThe radial viscosity of the mantle is generally thought to increase by ∼10–100 times from the upper to lower mantle with a putative, abrupt increase at 660 km depth. Recently, a low viscosity channel (LVC) between 660 and 1,000 km has been suggested. We conduct a series of time‐dependent flow models with viscosity either increasing or decreasing at 660 km depth while tracking slab structure, state‐of‐stress, and geoid. We find that a LVC will lower the amplitude of long wavelength (&gt;5,000 km) geoid highs over slabs, with amplitudes &lt;10 m in height, while increasing the slab dip angle and downdip tension in the upper 300 km of slabs. A viscosity increase at 660 km gives rise to strong downdip compression throughout a slab and this pattern will largely go away with the introduction of the LVC. In addition, the endothermic phase change at 660 km depth can substantially affect the stress distribution within slabs but has a minor influence on the geoid. Models that fit the observed long wavelength geoid and observed focal mechanism in the western Pacific favor models without the presence of the LVC between 660 km and 1,000 km depths.

Focused Penetrative Plumes: A Possible Consequence of the Dissociation Transition of Post‐Perovskite at ∼0.9 TPa in Massive Rocky Super‐Earths

AbstractBased on the standard view of depth‐increasing viscosity in the mantle of rocky planets, convection in the deep mantle of these planets is expected to become less likely as the size of planet increases. However, a recent theoretical study suggests that above 100 GPa pressure, the mantle viscosity can instead decrease with pressure at higher depths. We explore the potential impact of this type of viscosity structure on the nature of mantle convection in a super‐Earth planet of size GJ 876 d with a mass of ∼7.33 M⊕ (M⊕: Earth's mass). The pressures at the bottom of the mantle of GJ 876 d allow MgSiO3 post‐perovskite to dissociate into magnesium oxide (MgO) and relatively highly oxidized magnesium silicate MgSi2O5 at 0.9 TPa with highly negative Clapeyron slope. Our 3D‐spherical numerical model results suggest that for sufficiently low values of viscosity at the transition depth, a vigorous layered mantle convection may develop at the bottom of GJ 876 d‐size super‐Earth. Focused penetrative plumes originating from the deep mantle layered region can survive and stabilize over very long geological timescales and reach to the surface, which may induce unique circumstances of volcanism and tectonic activity.

Modelling sea-level fingerprints of glaciated regions with low mantle viscosity

Abstract. Global patterns of sea-level change – often termed “sea-level fingerprints” – associated with future changes in ice/water mass re-distribution are a key component in generating regional sea-level projections. Calculation of these fingerprints is commonly based on the assumption that the isostatic response of the Earth is dominantly elastic on century timescales. While this assumption is accurate for regions underlain by mantle material with viscosity close to that of global average estimates, recent work focusing on the West Antarctic region has shown that this assumption can lead to significant error where the viscosity is significantly lower than typical global average values. Here, we test this assumption for fingerprints associated with glaciers and ice caps. We compare output from a (1D) elastic Earth model to that of a 3D viscoelastic model that includes low-viscosity mantle in three glaciated regions: Alaska, southwestern Canada, and the southern Andes (Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) regions 1, 2, and 17, respectively). This comparison indicates that the error incurred by ignoring the non-elastic response is of the order of 1 mm in most areas (or about 1 % of the barystatic signal) over the 21st century with values reaching the centimetre level in glaciated regions. However, in glaciated regions underlain by low-viscosity mantle, the non-elastic deformation can result in relative sea-level changes with magnitudes of up to several tens of centimetres (or several times the barystatic value). The magnitude and spatial pattern of this non-elastic signal is sensitive to variations in both the projected ice history and regional viscosity structure, indicating the need for loading models with high spatial resolution and improved constraints on regional Earth viscosity structure to accurately simulate sea-level fingerprints in these regions. The anomalously low mantle viscosity in these regions also amplifies the glacial isostatic adjustment signal associated with glacier changes during the 20th century, causing it to be an important (and even dominant) contributor to the modelled relative sea-level changes over the 21st century.

Exploring GPS Observations of Postseismic Deformation Following the 2012 MW7.8 Haida Gwaii and 2013 MW7.5 Craig, Alaska Earthquakes: Implications for Viscoelastic Earth Structure

AbstractThe Queen Charlotte‐Fairweather Fault (QC‐FF) system off the coast of British Columbia and southeast Alaska is a highly active dextral strike‐slip plate boundary that accommodates ∼50 mm/yr of relative motion between the Pacific and North America plates. Nine MW ≥ 6.7 earthquakes have occurred along the QC‐FF system since 1910, including a MS(G‐R)8.1 event in 1949. Two recent earthquakes, the October 28, 2012 Haida Gwaii (MW7.8) and January 5, 2013 Craig, Alaska (MW7.5) events, produced postseismic transient deformation that was recorded in the motions of 25 nearby continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations. Here, we use 5+ yr of cGPS measurements to characterize the underlying mechanisms of postseismic deformation and to constrain the viscosity structure of the upper mantle surrounding the QC‐FF. We construct forward models of viscoelastic deformation driven by coseismic stress changes from these two earthquakes and explore a large set of laterally heterogeneous viscosity structures that incorporate a relatively weak back‐arc domain; we then evaluate each model based on its fit to the postseismic signals in our cGPS data. In determining best‐fit model structures, we additionally incorporate the effects of afterslip following the 2012 event. Our results indicate the occurrence of a combination of temporally decaying afterslip and vigorous viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle asthenosphere. In addition, our best‐fit viscosity structure (transient viscosity of 1.4–2.0 × 1018 Pa s; steady‐state viscosity of 1019 Pa s) is consistent with the range of upper mantle viscosities determined in previous studies of glacial isostatic rebound and postseismic deformation.

Possible Deep Structure and Composition of Venus With Respect to the Current Knowledge From Geodetic Data

AbstractAlmost no in situ seismic data are available for Venus; therefore, we can constrain the deep structure of this planet only from the geodetic data obtained by spacecraft. Of particular interest is Venus’s core‐mantle boundary, which holds clues about the origin and evolution of this celestial body. In this study, we build a series of different mantle/core models of Venus based on several mantle composition models and compare their associated Love numbers k2 with the observed values. Due to the large uncertainty in the observed values of k2, the state of Venus’s core cannot be reliably constrained. However, the expected precision of k2 obtained by the EnVision mission will sufficiently reduce the acceptable model space and contribute to estimating the mantle viscosity structure. Based on current geodetic data, we find that the bottom of Venus’s mantle may not feature a phase transition from perovskite to post‐perovskite if the FeO content of the mantle is less than 8.1 wt%; this region may be different from Earth’s D” layer. Furthermore, we find that the combination of observed k2 and Q can be used to distinguish whether the lowermost part of Venus’s mantle is a high‐temperature basalt layer or a thin thermal boundary layer if observations of Q can be obtained.

Dislocation interactions in olivine control postseismic creep of the upper mantle

Changes in stress applied to mantle rocks, such as those imposed by earthquakes, commonly induce a period of transient creep, which is often modelled based on stress transfer among slip systems due to grain interactions. However, recent experiments have demonstrated that the accumulation of stresses among dislocations is the dominant cause of strain hardening in olivine at temperatures ≤600 °C, raising the question of whether the same process contributes to transient creep at higher temperatures. Here, we demonstrate that olivine samples deformed at 25 °C or 1150–1250 °C both preserve stress heterogeneities of ~1 GPa that are imparted by dislocations and have correlation lengths of ~1 μm. The similar stress distributions formed at these different temperatures indicate that accumulation of stresses among dislocations also provides a contribution to transient creep at high temperatures. The results motivate a new generation of models that capture these intragranular processes and may refine predictions of evolving mantle viscosity over the earthquake cycle.

Comparing Glacial‐Geological Evidence and Model Simulations of Ice Sheet Change since the Last Glacial Period in the Amundsen Sea Sector of Antarctica

AbstractSince the Last Glacial Maximum ∼20,000 years ago, the Antarctic Ice Sheet has undergone extensive changes, resulting in a much smaller present‐day configuration. Improving our understanding of basic physical processes that played important roles during that retreat is critical to providing more robust model projections of future retreat and sea‐level rise. Here, a limited‐area nested ice sheet model was applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), at 5 km resolution. The ice sheet response to climate and sea‐level forcing was examined at two sites along the flowlines of Pine Island Glacier and Pope Glacier, close to the Hudson Mountains and Mount Murphy respectively, and the simulated responses compared with ice sheet thinning histories derived from glacial‐geological data. The sensitivity of results to selected model parameters was also assessed. The model simulations predict a broadly similar response to ocean forcing in both the central and eastern ASE, with an initial rapid phase of thinning followed by a slower phase to the modern configuration. Although there is a mismatch of up to 5,000 years between the timing of simulated and observed thinning, the modeling suggests that the upstream geological records of ice surface elevation change reflect a response to retreat near the grounding line. The model‐data mismatch could potentially be improved by accounting for regional variations in mantle viscosity, sea‐surface heights and basal sliding properties across the continental shelf.

Bayesian Inversion for a Stress‐Driven Model of Afterslip and Viscoelastic Relaxation: Method and Application to Postseismic Deformation Following the 2011 MW 9.0 Tohoku‐Oki Earthquake

AbstractPostseismic deformation following great subduction earthquakes is commonly modeled as the sum of the contributions from afterslip on the megathrust and viscoelastic relaxation of the coseismic stress changes in the mantle. However, it is generally difficult to separate the contributions of these mechanisms to geodetically observed postseismic deformation. Here we develop an inversion method for estimating the parameters of a stress‐driven postseismic deformation model that incorporates velocity‐strengthening afterslip and viscoelastic mantle relaxation governed by a biviscous Burgers rheology using coseismic and postseismic geodetic data. We assume that afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation are driven by coseismic stress changes and interact mechanically with each other. The unknown parameters to be estimated include the coseismic slip distribution that drives the postseismic processes, and the fault frictional and mantle viscosity parameters. We present a Bayesian formulation of the inverse problem and an algorithm for estimating the posterior probability density function. This approach allows us to quantify the uncertainties of the model parameters. We apply the method to the coseismic displacements and postseismic displacement time series of the 2011 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake. Our results show that the observations place tight constraints on the model parameters, with the estimated model effectively reproducing the first‐order spatial and temporal patterns of horizontal and vertical postseismic deformation. We find that the relative contributions of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation to horizontal and vertical postseismic deformation vary in space. We suggest that our method may potentially provide a way to objectively separate the contributions of these two mechanisms to postseismic deformation.