Climate Risk Management Research Articles

Building Resilience for Food and Nutrition Security in Africa: Focusing on Small-Scale Farmers

Food and nutrition security has become an important policy agenda in the international community. Sustainable Development Goal 2 aims to end hunger, achieve food and nutrition security, and promote sustainable agriculture. However, this goal will likely be challenged by emerging risks such as climate change in many developing countries. The Six Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that climate change will affect food security, especially in Africa, since the majority in the rural areas are rainfed small-scale farmers who are directly affected by climate change. Thus, policy intervention is urgently required to build climate resilience in the agricultural sector. To envision nutrition-sensitive agricultural production and consumption system, we first need to understand i) how farmers manage climate risks? ii) What technical options enhance farmers’ food and nutrition security? This paper tries to present some current evidence regarding those links in the literature, provide some empirical evidence on small-scale farmers in one of the drought-prone areas in southern Zambia, and envision the future direction of research.

Projected changes in the hotspots for agriculturally relevant compound events in Western Canada cropping regions under the RCP8.5 scenario

AbstractThe Canadian Prairies are a major grain production region, producing most of the wheat for export in Canada. Global warming and the associated changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events pose significant risks to agriculture on the Canadian Prairies. Compound hazards can cause higher crop failure than isolated events, especially in the main grain production regions in western Canada. To achieve informed climate risk management, it is critical to characterize the threats posed by compound hazards in current and future climates in western Canada. In this study, return periods of events were computed to assess the potential changes in the hotspots for agriculturally relevant compound events in western Canada using two convection‐permitting climate simulations: current (CTL) climate and future climate under the RCP8.5 scenario based on a pseudo‐global‐warming (PGW) approach. Specifically, our study analyzed agricultural drought, low precipitation, heatwaves, and cool waves related to cool‐season crops. The results showed the overall good performance of the CTL simulation in capturing spatial patterns of these compound events in western Canada. In the current climate, droughts and heatwaves co‐occur mostly in southeastern parts of the prairies. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, they are likely to increase in frequency and expand to cover the major croplands of western Canada. This study provides information that policymakers in the fields of climate change adaptation and agricultural disaster management will find useful.

Beyond Climate Ready? A History of Seattle Public Utilities’ Ongoing Evolution from Environmental and Climate Risk Management to Integrated Sustainability

Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) is a municipal water supply, drainage, wastewater, and solid waste management utility in Seattle, Washington. This utility has explored the impacts of climate change and supported climate adaptation work since 1997. Faced with threats such as sea level rise, drought, wildfires, and extreme precipitation events, SPU has worked to “mainstream” climate science throughout its strategic planning, capital investments, management, operations, staffing, institutional culture, and more. This paper provides a descriptive, chronologically ordered account of how SPU’s climate-change-related work has evolved to become an aspect of a broader social and environmental sustainability orientation, aimed at resilience against climate impacts, but also towards improving greenhouse gas emissions reduction, carbon sequestration, water and waste circularity, green infrastructure, ecosystem and species stewardship, green and blue workforce development, affordability, an intergenerational perspective, and environmental justice. We frame this transition as a movement from a core focus on risk management toward a proactive and integrated mode of sustainable operations. While SPU’s journey has been enabled by a co-productive approach to climate services, we speculate on how this model can be broadened and diversified to help SPU pursue their goal of becoming a sustainable organization. It is our hope that this paper sparks reflection and discussion within the climate services community, amongst utilities, municipalities, and policy entrepreneurs that are interested in sustainability.

Can Managing Climate Risks Be a Catalyst for Broader Transformative Change?

This essay addresses the long-term effectiveness of urban climate change adaptation approaches, based, inter alia, on work in the C40 city network. We argue that in most cities, the dominant framing of climate risk management almost exclusively focuses on short-term incrementalities and preventive solutions directly tackling hazards, vulnerability, and exposure. This approach has serious flaws, leading to missed opportunities for longer-term sustainable urban development. Until very recently, climate science usually provided only a marginal input to long-term urban planning and design. We argue that any analysis of urban climate risk management and the associated climate services should be broadened beyond solely climate focusing on impacts. In this context, the development of positive urban visions is a key gap for both research and practice. A change is required from negatively addressing risks to positively pursuing a positive vision of attractive, resilient, and sustainable cities. The emphasis on short-term incremental solutions should shift towards long-term transformation. This embodies a paradigm shift from “function follows system” to “system follows function”. For many cities, this also means a change in procedural practice from siloed top-down to integrated, participatory urban transformation. Our main argument in this paper is that simple, longer-term sustainable urban transformation would not only reduce climate risks but also enhance overall environmental quality, economic opportunities, and social wellbeing.

Urban Resilience and the Complexity of Climatic Risk Management in the City of Polokwane, Limpopo Province

Abstract The unprecedented rate of urbanisation has changed the South African urban landscape. The densification of the population in cities has resulted in high consumption of electricity, waste production, a reduction of greenery, and traffic congestion, all of which contribute to climate change. South Africa promulgated legislations and acts such as the Spatial Planning and Land-Use Management Act (SPLUMA), the National Urban Development Framework (NUDF), and the Integrated Development Plan (IDP) to guide climate change adaptation and mitigation aspirations. These frameworks and plans are important for the management of urbanisation, which potentially contributes to climate change. Complexity theory is a lens for reviewing complex systems like urbanisation and cities. Complexity theory gives a thorough account of cities, urbanisation, and urban planning. The method that was adopted for the paper is a mixed-method approach. The data were collected by interviewing and administering questionnaires to municipal officials and residents of four urban areas (Legae la Batho, Emdo Park, Serala View, and Flora Park). Results show that the local municipality continues to be plagued with a lack of qualified personnel to implement policies that affect programme implementation, such as energy mix. Additionally, the City of Polokwane has been experiencing a reduction of green spaces, which has a negative impact on the climate change aspiration. The paper concludes that there are still challenges to a fully capacitated workforce within the Polokwane Local Municipality. The inability to implement policies has deleterious effects on climate change mitigation.

How Do Sustainability Stakeholders Seize Climate Risk Premia in the Private Cleantech Sector?

This paper explores the strategies and practices of capturing climate risk premia for venture capital (VC) fund managers and entrepreneurs in the private cleantech sector. It also examines the impact of the feed-in tariffs (FITs) policy on the management of cleantech investments. It is shown that a longer investment period, less investment capital in cleantech investment management strategies, and optimistic climate risk management practices will help investors to better capture climate risk premia. In fact, the FITs policy will give rise to VC fund managers and entrepreneurs having a positive view regarding the prospects of the cleantech sector, motivating them to make long-term investments. Furthermore, it is shown that the greater the impact of the FITs policy, the greater the climate risk premia to be captured. In addition, the captured climate risk premia are greater in weaker economic conditions and in times of increased uncertainty with regard to product demand.

Assessing the adaptive capacity of smallholder cocoa farmers to climate variability in the Adansi South District of the Ashanti Region, Ghana

This study assessed the adaptive capacity of smallholder cocoa farmers to address the adverse effects of climate variability in the Adansi South District of the Ashanti Region, Ghana. Specifically, the study sought to (i) assess the perception of the smallholder cocoa farmers to climate variability; (ii) determine the perceived effects of climate variability on cocoa production in the district; and; (iii) evaluate the adaptive capacity of the smallholder cocoa farmers to manage climate risks. The study used questionnaire surveys with 150 smallholder cocoa farmers, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions in three selected communities (Afiaso, Tonkoase, and Amudurase). A variety of capital assets (social, financial, human, physical, and natural) were utilized to conceptualize smallholder cocoa farmers’ adaptive capacity. Results showed that the smallholder cocoa farmers reported changes in the onset and duration of rains, rising temperatures, and increasing windstorms in the selected communities. The farmers perceived increased incidence of drought and cocoa failure, the prevalence of diseases and pest invasion, and decreased farmer income as the key adverse effects on their cocoa production. Further, findings also revealed that cumulatively, all the selected communities in Adansi South District had a moderate adaptive capacity (0.531). It is recommended that appropriate policies aimed at enhancing the adaptive capacity of smallholder cocoa farmers must be formulated by policymakers to minimize their vulnerabilities to climate risks.

Factoring labour when comparing in situ rainwater harvesting technologies for semi-arid areas of central Tanzania

ABSTRACT Erratic rainfall, high evapotranspiration rates and droughts are major factors limiting crop production in semi-arid areas. Tied ridges that have crossed ties within the furrow are among the physical soil and water conservation measures. During the 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons, we examined the efficacy of repaired tied ridges for maize crop (Zea mays) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in Kongwa district of Tanzania as an alternate labour saving strategy for managing climate risks associated with variable rainfall. Treatments consisted of three tillage methods: conventional tillage (CT) which involved the preparation of a flat seedbed using handhoe, annually constructed tied ridges (ATR) and tied ridges that had been constructed during the previous season and had been repaired (residual tied ridges–RTR). Data were collected on labour requirements and crop performance. RTR increased economic returns by 29% and 80% over ATR and CT, respectively. Maize grain yield shows a trend of RTR >ATR>CT with values ranging from 2465 kg ha−1 to 4185 kg ha−1 (P < 0.01). While tillage and/or variety did not influence sorghum grain yield significantly (P > 0.05). The use of RTR is recommended because of low labour requirements and greater economic benefits than CT and ATR under maize cropping systems.

Spatiotemporal analysis of consecutive extreme wet days in China from 1980 to 2020

AbstractConsecutive extreme wet days (CEWDs) typically affect the likelihood of flooding and landslides and have negative effects on both natural and artificial ecosystems; however, the spatiotemporal changes in their features are still unclear at the national scale. Investigating changes in the frequency and intensity of such events is essential for climate risk management. Here, this study thoroughly analysed CEWD features in China from 1980 to 2020 using the daily observation dataset. We also evaluated and compared the ability of two widely used precipitation products, the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and the Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation version 2 (MSWEP), to detect CEWD features. According to the observation data, the frequency and intensity of CEWD events are related to local climate and present “high eastern and low western” spatial patterns across China. Since 1980, more than half of China's mainland has experienced increases in both the frequency and intensity of CEWDs. Some stations detected decreasing trends in CEWD frequency and amounts, which are primarily located in the eastern coastal regions and southwest of warm temperate humid/subhumid regions. The ERA5 precipitation product generally outperforms MSWEP data in detecting CEWD events, and the latter significantly underestimates the annual frequency and amounts of CEWDs. These findings provide basic and valuable information regarding CEWD features across China and where such studies can be conducted based on precipitation datasets. Furthermore, these findings will also aid policymakers in managing extreme precipitation‐related natural hazards.

Develop medium‐ to long‐term climate information services to enhance comprehensive climate risk management in Africa

AbstractIncreasing climate change risks in Africa, emerging from global warming and their interaction with non‐climate risks such as market, have increased the need for comprehensive Climate Risk Management (CRM) that considers both climatic and non‐climatic risks and enables actions that address the underlying drivers of vulnerability to these risks. However, comprehensive CRM requires holistic Climate Information Services (CIS), that is, CIS that balances between components focused on provision of short‐ and long‐term climate information for both local and non‐local decision makers. In this article, we ask: to what extent is CIS in Africa holistic? We review recent and ongoing CIS interventions in Africa to determine whether a balance of components between short‐ and long‐term CIS for local and non‐local decision makers is achieved for holistic CIS. We find a focus on provision of short‐term, that is, Sub‐Seasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) CIS for local and non‐local decision makers, with limited focus on medium‐ to long‐term (MLT) CIS, particularly MLT CIS for local decision makers which represents the biggest gap to achieving holistic CIS in Africa. We present a supported case that ensuring holistic CIS in Africa will require a portfolio‐based approach to CIS development, particularly focusing on MLT CIS for local decision makers. We further highlight the need for integration of this MLT CIS for local decision makers into existing CIS. Achieving this will require: (a) experimentation and innovation with different CIS formats, products and timeframes to enable learning and flexibility to achieve desired goals; (b) capacity development of producers and consumers of climate information to ensure that they have the skills and expertise to understand and generate, and articulate needs and consume MLT CIS respectively; and (c) coordinated allocation of financial resources to ensure that all components of the holistic CIS are advanced.

HOW USING WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES MAY IMPACT FARM PRODUCTIVITY AND TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY: EVIDENCE FROM COWPEA AND SESAME PRODUCERS IN BURKINA FASO

Weather and climate information services (WCIS) are recognized as a powerful tool to support the management of climate risk in the context of climate variability. However, the picture of its value for agriculture is not yet well evaluated. This study used the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) framework to assess the impact of WCIS use on yield, income and technical efficiency of cowpea and sesame production in Burkina Faso. The study involved 170 farmers from 17 villages including 11 experimental villages exposed to WCIS and 6 control villages not exposed. The study found that farmers exposed to WCIS changed their crop management’s practices. A significant number of farmers used forecasts of the rainy season’ length and the onset date to choose which crop and variety to grow, which location and size of plots to crop. Daily forecast information was used for farm crop operations (choosing the date of land preparation, sowing, fertilizing, weeding, etc.), while the seasonal forecast was used for strategic decision (selection of crop and production site location). The use of farm inputs and labor requirements are different between climate-informed farmers and non-exposed farmers, the latter farmers tending to use more labor. The study showed that cowpea producers using WCIS obtained significantly higher yields (848[Formula: see text]kg/ha on an average compared to 675[Formula: see text]kg/ha for non-WCIS users); higher gross margin (34% higher than non-users). However, the impact of WCIS was not significant for sesame production. This may translate the strong linkage and dependence of the effectiveness of using WCIS with other factors than just climate variability, particularly the ability of the farmer to understand and apply relevant agro-met-advisories and crop–soil–water attributes.

Climate uncertainty and information transmissions across the conventional and ESG assets

This paper examines the effect of climate uncertainty on the spillover effects across the European conventional and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) financial markets via novel measures of physical and transitional climate risk proxies obtained from textual analysis. Analyzing daily data for stocks in the MSCI Europe ESG Leaders Index and various Euro based ESG bond indexes over the period January 3, 2014–September 30, 2021, we show that the shock transmissions between the conventional and ESG assets are significantly lower during periods of high climate uncertainty, suggesting that ESG investments can offer conventional investors diversification benefits against climate-driven shocks. Further comparing a forward-looking investment strategy conditional on the level of climate risk against the passive investment strategy, we show that investors who are worried about physical climate risks could utilize ESG equity sector portfolios as a diversification tool against physical climate uncertainty. In contrast, ESG bonds are found to be particularly useful in managing transition risk exposures that are associated with policy uncertainty and/or business transitions with respect to environmental policies. The findings have important implications regarding the role of climate uncertainty as a driver of informational spillovers across the conventional and ESG assets with important insights to manage climate risk exposures.

Adaptation to compound climate risks: A systematic global stocktake

This article provides a stocktake of the adaptation literature between 2013 and 2019 to better understand how adaptation responses affect risk under the particularly challenging conditions of compound climate events. Across 39 countries, 45 response types to compound hazards display anticipatory (9%), reactive (33%), and maladaptive (41%) characteristics, as well as hard (18%) and soft (68%) limits to adaptation. Low income, food insecurity, and access to institutional resources and finance are the most prominent of 23 vulnerabilities observed to negatively affect responses. Risk for food security, health, livelihoods, and economic outputs are commonly associated risks driving responses. Narrow geographical and sectoral foci of the literature highlight important conceptual, sectoral, and geographic areas for future research to better understand the way responses shape risk. When responses are integrated within climate risk assessment and management, there is greater potential to advance the urgency of response and safeguards for the most vulnerable.

The impact of temperature on labor productivity——evidence from temperature-sensitive enterprises

Climate change increases the frequency of extreme climate events and impacts the economy and the society in a negative way. As typical climate events, temperature anomalies affect individual health and working conditions, particularly for industries that depend heavily on temperatures. Using a research setting of Chinese temperature-sensitive enterprises, we analyze the impact of temperature on labor productivity. The findings indicate an inverse U-shaped relationship between temperature and labor productivity, with labor productivity peaking at 24.90°C on average. Further analysis shows that labor productivity peaks in the eastern regions at a higher level (26.25°C) than in the central and western regions (20°C). Moreover, we note that technological innovation is crucial for enterprises to manage climate risks and maintain effective labor productivity. This study provides empirical evidence on the relationship between environmental risk and corporate operations, shedding light on the significance of corporate sustainable development against accelerating global climate change.

Corporate net zero pledges: a triumph of private climate regulation or more greenwash?

ABSTRACT Corporate pledges to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions in line with the international Paris Agreement on climate change are proliferating around the world, including in Australia. Regulatory drivers include corporate law obligations to identify, disclose and manage climate-related financial risks, as well as a complex web of rapidly developing private regulatory initiatives. Non-state actors such as institutional investors, industry bodies and civil society, are increasingly involved in developing best practice standards for climate risk disclosure and management, engaging with companies to drive their uptake, and in some cases, litigating to embed best practice expectations and hold companies accountable for their climate commitments and performance. Although underlying corporate law obligations are climate-neutral and focus on transparency and process, the associated private climate regulation is increasingly organised around substantive Paris-aligned standards. Drawing on an empirical study of large Australian listed companies, this article explores whether private climate regulation is helping to drive robust corporate climate commitments, target-setting and associated activities, which have the potential to deliver real-world emissions reductions.

A reality check for the applicability of comprehensive climate risk assessment and management: Experiences from Peru, India and Austria

Climate-related risks are a major threat to humanity, affecting the lives and livelihoods of communities globally. Even with adaptation, climate change is projected to increase the severity of risks, leading to impacts and residual risks, also termed losses and damages. Frameworks and approaches using Climate Risk Management (CRM), an integration of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation, and sustainable development, are being devised to support the comprehensive management of increasing climate-related risks. Here we discuss to what extent comprehensive CRM has been implemented in three specific cases – in Peru, India and Austria. The approach is conceptually represented and evaluated using a CRM framework. The cases deal with risks associated with glacial lake outburst floods, sea level rise, tropical cyclones, salinization, riverine floods and agricultural droughts. Ultimately, we synthesise policy and research recommendations to help understand what is feasible for CRM approaches applied in practice. We find that successful CRM implementation in practice benefits from being flexible, and participatory from beginning to end, whilst considering compounding risks, and the spectrum of (just and equitable) incremental to transformational adaptation measures necessary for attending to current and projected future increases in climate-related risks.

Managing climate risks in business using the precautionary principle

The article states that the functioning of business in a changing environment associated with the aggravation of the climate crisis requires increased attention to uncertainty, identification and neutralization of possible climate risks that may adversely affect its functioning and further development, as well as the implementation of measures to adapt to climate change. It is emphasized that adaptation to climate change is a process of business adaptation in response to actual or expected destructive climate impacts, which allows to reduce their negative effects and take advantage of favorable opportunities. It is emphasized that climate risks are difficult to predict due to their radical uncertainty and unique properties, including unpredictability, difficulty of forecasting, complex dynamics and chain reaction effects. In addition, climate risks are irreversible and non-linear, so even minor climate change can lead to significant and even catastrophic consequences for businesses. Therefore, managing business climate risks is crucial, as the impact of secondary effects can affect the company's operations, leading to financial losses due to fluctuations in asset values. It is substantiated that forecasting of climate risks to business should be based on the results of studying the background of natural disasters that have affected the viability of business in previous years and the results of assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The methods for assessing climate risks to business, adapted for use in Ukrainian practice, are considered. A search for ways to manage business climate risks on the basis of the precautionary principle is carried out. It is proved that the proposed additions to the Methodological Recommendations for Assessing Risks and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Socio-Economic Sectors and Natural Components will allow clearly observing the trends in the priority of climate risks and promptly making decisions on their neutralization or minimization of their impact on economic activity. At the same time, they will simplify modelling of the impact of climate change on business in the short and long term, which will facilitate early adaptation measures and the creation of reserves to cover losses resulting from the occurrence of difficult to manage and/or unmanageable climate risks.

The institutional support index: A pragmatic approach to assessing the effectiveness of institutions' climate risk management support-A case study of farming communities in Pakistan

The effects of climate change are global and will worsen in the future. People face uncontrollable large-scale events due to the crisis. To manage climate-induced risks, understanding all threats is crucial. A country's governance system is responsible for risk management. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climatic disasters, making its governance system crucial. To achieve climate risk resilience, farmers need tailored institutional services. This study investigates the efficacy of such services in Punjab province, Pakistan. Four hundred eighty farmers in Punjab's mixed cropping zone were interviewed face-to-face using a predesigned structured questionnaire to collect data on five types of institutionally provided services (e.g., weather and climate forecasts, farm advisory, financial services, technical support, and training). Institutional support for climate risk management is assessed using an indicator-based index approach by selecting four indicators/dimensions reflective of service effectiveness (e.g., content coverage, service accessibility, compatibility, and usefulness). The survey results showed that farmers had varying perceptions of institutional services, with low-medium levels of support and fair content coverage, accessibility, and usefulness. Most services lacked compatibility. Researchers recommend improving agricultural service compatibility to build farming communities' resilience to climate risks.

Climate Risk Management and the Role of Government

Climate Risk Management and the Role of Government

A Subjective Bayesian Framework for Synthesizing Deep Uncertainties in Climate Risk Management

AbstractProjections of nonstationary climate risks can vary considerably from one source to another, posing considerable communication and decision‐analytical challenges. One such challenge is how to present trade‐offs under deep uncertainty in a salient and interpretable manner. Some common approaches include analyzing a small subset of projections or treating all considered projections as equally likely. These approaches can underestimate risks, hide deep uncertainties, and are mostly silent on which assumptions drive decision‐relevant outcomes. Here we introduce and demonstrate a transparent Bayesian framework for synthesizing deep uncertainties to inform climate risk management. The first step of this workflow is to generate an ensemble of simulations representing possible futures and analyze them through standard exploratory modeling techniques. Next, a small set of probability distributions representing subjective beliefs about the likelihood of possible futures is used to weight the scenarios. Finally, these weights are used to compute and characterize trade‐offs, conduct robustness checks, and reveal implicit assumptions. We demonstrate the framework through a didactic case study analyzing how high to elevate a house to manage coastal flood risks.